Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

torres9kop

baraca wrote: »

torres9kop wrote: »

If we get snow, what day will we get it in south county dublin between bray and ballybrack, near the ramblers rest pub??

About 7.28pm next saturday night

Damn. My flights at 7.25pm. Going to miss the fun

TheMilkyPirate

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Tintin, you lucky lad! Tracking a tad further south again.

That's the 06z.

BEASTERLY

ECM not too far off an Easterly in FI either.

ninebeanrows

Joining this up with the late Jan cold spell one folks

TURRICAN

torres9kop wrote: »

If we get snow, what day will we get it in south county dublin between bray and ballybrack, near the ramblers rest pub??

Don't know.
Try paddy powers and see what gambling bets are available.
You should be able to judge and then come back and tell us.

TheMilkyPirate

12z not looking as good, The low from greenland is not heading as far south and as such will make it harder for heights to ridge over the low to scandi.

EDIT: Heights are still heading NE which is the important thing, Decent run so far all in.

yorlum11

baraca wrote: »

12z not looking as good, The low from greenland is not heading as far south and as such will make it harder for heights to ridge over the low to scandi.

EDIT: Heights are still heading NE which is the important thing, Decent run so far all in.

A fair downgrade no less dont you think?

TheMilkyPirate

yorlum11 wrote: »

A fair downgrade no less dont you think?

No, not at all. It takes a different path but pretty much the same as the 06z at +180.

A trend is what we are looking for and that's another good consistent run from the GFS, With heights building to our NE.

delw

@baraca could be coming in line with ECM,all eyes on it's next run

yorlum11

baraca wrote: »

No, not at all. It takes a different path but pretty much the same as the 06z at +180.

A trend is what we are looking for and that's another good consistent run from the GFS, With heights building to our NE.

I get your drift!!Interesting.

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

No, not at all. It takes a different path but pretty much the same as the 06z at +180.

A trend is what we are looking for and that's another good consistent run from the GFS, With heights building to our NE.

And opposed to last week where we had the ECM on it's own. All models singing from the same hymn sheet today. One problem....there's very little cold to our east to tap into...:(

ninebeanrows

Not the prettiest charts again so far tonight.

Again it is patience required

blackius

Yeah if it came to a straight easterly,you'd want it for a week before cold started troughing towards us.
What you'd get if it was straight from warsaw as it is would be cold rain.
Twud be turning sleety by day 5.

Bring the air in from the north east and thats a colder story that involves white stuff quicker.

Anyhow,all sorts of solutions are likely post 120hrs at the moment,thats what we've been getting lately so don't panic!

I'd like to see the ecmwf on board with this east/northeasterly.
The 32 day panel from this morning suggests it wants to go that route or a northwesterly [boring...!] lets see.

Sponge Bob

BEASTERLY wrote: »

there's very little cold to our east to tap into...:(

Right now yes, however 2 vars from the same the same model/run show development there too.

Temps @ 2m

Now



8 Days time, first time I have seen Europe shown like this all winter.



Up there at 850HPa

Now



8 Days

darkman2

The UKMO is the best for longer term prospects with sufficient energy into the southern arm of the jet stream at 144hrs which may hold the Azores high pressure back from spoiling a Northeasterly or Easterly and the trough digging south. The Azores high will always try and link with the Scandinavian high - we don't want this to happen because it will sink the setup as illustrated on the GFS. We want the Azores high displaced allowing depressions from the Atlantic to undercut the Scandinavian high thus establishing an Easterly for for us and Irish style weather for the Med;)

TheMilkyPirate

Here comes that low on the ECM, Looks pretty much the same as the GFS so far.

darkman2

Too much energy into the Northern arm of the jet stream on the ECM.




It could still work out just about or the whole lot could sink and welcome back to the Atlantic.

blackius

Bloody hell.
Monumentally crucial differences between the models again this evening.
Agree with DM that the ukmo looks best but so so different to the ECM.

Best advice is to stay tuned...

bb1234567

blackius wrote: »

Bloody hell.
Monumentally crucial differences between the models again this evening.
Agree with DM that the ukmo looks best but so so different to the ECM.

Best advice is to stay tuned...

I hate to say it but I'm actually getting really excited ,I know its way too early and I'll most likely end up being very disappointed, but everyones comments today have been very enthusiastic and I cant help but get excited, oh well since last january I've come to deal with snow disappointment very well:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

bb1234567 wrote: »

I hate to say it but I'm actually getting really excited ,I know its way too early and I'll most likely end up being very disappointed, but everyones comments today have been very enthusiastic and I cant help but get excited, oh well since last january I've come to deal with snow disappointment very well:D

Without excitement there is no disappointment

-- t|nt|n, 2012

200motels

It looks good this far out but I'm not that confident it will happen as something always spoils it. Fingers toes everything crossed.

fizzycyst

Evelyn doesn't seem too confident at present, hopefully that will change going forward.

Sponge Bob

Evelyn came on and said:

For the next "7/8 days" temps "Above Average" and "Not Too Much in the way of Frost"

lostinashford

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Evelyn came on and said:

For the next "7/8 days" temps "Above Average" and "Not Too Much in the way of Frost"

Why is Evelyn/ME doing 7/8 day forecasts all of a sudden when they have always held to the 5 day rule???

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Evelyn came on and said:

For the next "7/8 days" temps "Above Average" and "Not Too Much in the way of Frost"

What did she predict last Friday , they go on the ECWMF , if its showing nothing too exciting thats what she will say , if it shows something better (like last Friday ) she will also say that .

There reports at the moment change from Run to Run , its just the type of set up were in

Darwin

If I recall rightly, Evelyn gave the forecast last Friday evening and mentioned the prospect of daytime temps in the region of -8c in the midlands for today/tomorrow. Let's hope the predictions go the wrong way again this time...

Sponge Bob

lostinashford wrote: »

Why is Evelyn/ME doing 7/8 day forecasts all of a sudden when they have always held to the 5 day rule???

I take it that I was not the only one who heard that.

blackius

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Evelyn came on and said:

For the next "7/8 days" temps "Above Average" and "Not Too Much in the way of Frost"

What did she predict last Friday , they go on the ECWMF , if its showing nothing too exciting thats what she will say , if it shows something better (like last Friday ) she will also say that .

There reports at the moment change from Run to Run , its just the type of set up were in

Agreed.
Sometimes though I can't fathom the logic behind ME forecasts as too often their forecast appears to me to be entirely on one run.
Last week Evelyn could not contain her excitement at the ecmwf then showing bitter cold from this weekend and I don't blame her.
She did caveat it but still it had the whole country saying the snows coming.Not a good idea..

Birdnuts

We've had less then 5 days air frost so far this winter and I saw a Cowslip in full bloom 3 months early today. Is their no end to this mild drizzly rubbish

Kippure

Theres definately something starting to happen. The models are all over the place the last couple of weeks.

In fact, i dont think we can trust the models past 3 days.

On an average we want to see cold building in Europe and east of us.

And on average it will be shown in the models at about 144 hours.

Start to get excited when it jumps closer 98 hours.

The atlantic is starting to loose its punch.

And we want to see the jet ever so diving more on a southerly direction.

All we can do is wait and watch.

I,d support the idea of a very cold spring.