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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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    #1472
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-13-0-276.png?6

    Might wrap up if visiting London next week...or Dublin for that matter.;)

    Just one member's interpretation on things but still...


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    #1473
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Dude, is that an upramp or a downramp ??? :D
    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Im calling the next run early

    the-sacred-ramp-viral-reality.jpg


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    #1474
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,015 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Dude, is that an upramp or a downramp ??? :D

    Oh its definitely up !


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    #1475
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I think the most plausible outcome for next week is something like 3-5 degrees with light/moderate rain and SE winds


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    #1476
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Blackius, I can safely say this is the most remarkable pool of cold air developing to the East I have ever seen within a riable sort of time frame on the Euro models. And it's pure Siberian air. The origin is extraordinarily pure. Given that we had a long enough North sea track in 2010 for both dramatic cold periods this would be different. It would be even drier, even colder and more continental. You are right in that initially we would be hovering between the -5c Hpa and -8c Hpa. That's enough with the continental track to get estuaries and lakes around the country frozen again in time for the snow ;) So fingers crossed. Best chance of the Winter.


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    #1477
    doccy
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    patneve2 wrote: »
    I think the most plausible outcome for next week is something like 3-5 degrees with light/moderate rain and SE winds

    Down with this sort of talk .. didn't you get the Ramping Memo?


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    #1478
    eskimocat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Ok, School time again for Eskimocat. Can ye correct me where I am wrong please....(sorry for making this vastly over simplified but still taking baby steps here, so please bear with the plain english)

    Q1. What are the factors (specifically) that affect the 850 hps charts so that the cold that they contain falls as rain and not sleet or snow?

    Ans: Significantly Higher Sea temp, land temp and any highs pushing up, blocking or pooling in the vicinity. Also the jet stream (if its strong enough) may push the cold away from our location.

    Q. 2 Why is it better for the cold to come from the East?

    Ans: We need the cold to come from the East as it would not have had to battle azore highs or warm atlantic sea temps like the cold from the West often has to and so has a better chance of staying colder for longer. Thus bring better chances of snow.

    ok boards.ies do your best to correct my homework please! (spellings too if you have a mind :D)

    Thanks in advance Esk


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    #1479
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Ok, 12z here we go


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    #1480
    Noffles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Noffles


    Out of interest, why do you "weather fanciers" want bad weather at the moment... is it not easier for the majority of the country when the weather is as it is now?

    I would be happy to see this wind, rain and mildness continue until end of Feb then let it get increasingly warmer...

    this is not an attack by the way, more of a confused bystander, wondering WTF?


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    #1481
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Noffles wrote: »
    Out of interest, why do you "weather fanciers" want bad weather at the moment... is it not easier for the majority of the country when the weather is as it is now?

    I would be happy to see this wind, rain and mildness continue until end of Feb then let it get increasingly warmer...

    this is not an attack by the way, more of a confused bystander, wondering WTF?

    I cant slide on my ar$e in the rain. Thats my reason, as childish as it sounds! Now I know some people will thinks thats very selfish etc, but if theres snow, I'll be off to the shops in the 4wd to get shopping in for my elderly relatives etc.

    Then I'll go schlydin again!


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    #1482
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Noffles wrote: »
    Out of interest, why do you "weather fanciers" want bad weather at the moment... is it not easier for the majority of the country when the weather is as it is now?

    I would be happy to see this wind, rain and mildness continue until end of Feb then let it get increasingly warmer...

    this is not an attack by the way, more of a confused bystander, wondering WTF?

    because people like different things


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    #1483
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Noffles wrote: »
    Out of interest, why do you "weather fanciers" want bad weather at the moment... is it not easier for the majority of the country when the weather is as it is now?

    I would be happy to see this wind, rain and mildness continue until end of Feb then let it get increasingly warmer...

    this is not an attack by the way, more of a confused bystander, wondering WTF?

    Most people here are weather nerds, We like extreme weather, Snow and freezing temps bring one such variance of that.


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    #1484
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,501 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Noffles wrote: »
    Out of interest, why do you "weather fanciers" want bad weather at the moment... is it not easier for the majority of the country when the weather is as it is now?

    I would be happy to see this wind, rain and mildness continue until end of Feb then let it get increasingly warmer...

    this is not an attack by the way, more of a confused bystander, wondering WTF?
    Because our present weather is horribly boring, any weather even slightly different or more extreme is far more exciting and thats why we want it. We are very deprived of exciting weather here in ireland, weather from any direction bar west would be much more exciting, but we manage to be kept in boring westerlies 90 % of the time how unfair!:mad:


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    #1485
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Already a slight W-shift of the Siberian/Russian HP on the 12Z GFS...


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    #1486
    Eastcoastryan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Already a slight W-shift of the Siberian/Russian HP on the 12Z GFS...

    I'm guessing this is bad news for us?


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    #1487
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Eastcoastryan wrote: »
    I'm guessing this is bad news for us?

    its good news...the more the pattern shifts to the west the better it is


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    #1488
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    that's a no from the 12z


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    #1489
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Compare the 12Z to the 06Z and you will see how poorly GFS is performing...all over the place...

    EDIT: not from an Ireland perspective, at a European context


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    #1490
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Noffles wrote: »
    eful now Noffles is it not easier for the majority of the country when the weather is as it is now?

    I would be happy to see this wind, rain and mildness continue until end of Feb then let it get increasingly warmer...

    Careful Now Noffles. Careful!. Oh and do you want to pick A Blizzard Date of your very own in February? ...purely as insurance of course. :D


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    #1491
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    baraca wrote: »
    that's a no from the 12z

    On what basis is it a no? Im just looking at it for the first time in a few days and that easterly still looks very strong?


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    #1492
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Trotter wrote: »
    baraca wrote: »
    that's a no from the 12z

    On what basis is it a no? Im just looking at it for the first time in a few days and that easterly still looks very strong?

    There is no easterly modelled on the 12z.


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    #1493
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Compare the 12Z to the 06Z and you will see how poorly GFS is performing...all over the place...

    Two weeks ago this is what was everybody saying when the ECM said yes to the easterly, look which one was right...


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    #1494
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Two weeks ago this is what was everybody saying when the ECM said yes to the easterly, look which one was right...

    But it is performing poorly, as are all other models


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    #1495
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    patneve2 wrote: »
    Compare the 12Z to the 06Z and you will see how poorly GFS is performing...all over the place...

    Two weeks ago this is what was everybody saying when the ECM said yes to the easterly, look which one was right...

    Yes, I'd be getting a bit worried about next Weeks prospects now. That's 3 gfs runs in a route now that want nothing to do with it.

    Big ukm and ecm coming up now.


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    #1496
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Two weeks ago this is what was everybody saying when the ECM said yes to the easterly, look which one was right...

    This isn't a case of me saying: "ah yeah the GFS isn't showing an easterly so I'm not going to pay any attention to it", the funny thing is that it's messing up at reliable timeframes


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    #1497
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    baraca wrote: »
    There is no easterly modelled on the 12z.

    In my own amateur way, I was just looking at the temperature charts and figured the low temperatures in Eastern Europe creeping west was what we were after. I need to go back to my basics to figure this out :)


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    #1498
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    baraca wrote: »
    that's a no from the 12z

    But a yes from the UKMO


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    #1499
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,145 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    As Baraca says, UKMO is very positive. 12z GFS is also much better and further west than 6z GFS. Still nothing certain but tis looking good!


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    #1500
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    baraca wrote: »
    But a yes from the UKMO

    For and easterly you really need the UKMO and Ecm on board, and as baraca said its a yes from the UkMO, the Gfs for the bin really, and for Ireland we are left in no mans land as usual


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    #1501
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    @TWOCommunity UKMO considers it an unlikely solution FYI but stresses uncertainty. Either way, E'rly next week not v potent or snow-bearing.
    13 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone
    replies ↓

    TWOCommunity TWOCommunity

    @fergieweather Just clarifying - UKMO thinks the 12zGFS run is an unlikely solution?

    UKMO not liking the look of the 12z GFS


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