Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

It's trending east, Compared to the 00z fax output it is further east. Not west. What makes you think it will retreat west?

But it's only trending east early on like the UKMO, what happens after that? The UKMO shows a westward retreat.

I think it will turn out that way because of the NAO. There is something causing the Azores high to not give up and low pressure to continually form off greenland. And this hows now sign of a long term let up, so a continuation of the positive NAO seems most likely.


Now look at the ECM, high retreats east, break away high sinks south. Now not one major model supports an easterly for Ireland. Time to give the the ghost, snow loving friends.

Nabber

seanknowsall wrote: »

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Absolutely. Forget the ECM and the UKMO. If the the DAA, or any other branch of the civil service, are saying no easterly then it truly is game over.

Eh... where did I say that the DAA said no easterly?? We go by the official forecasts (as mentioned in my post) from Met Eireannn and also the main European agencies... smart arent ya??

Its crazy in here at times... disagree or offer an opinion different to what the sacred few say and you are lambasted and accused of trolling. I am passing on what was discussed at an operations meeting... no freeze for next ten days... just because people dont like that small piece of information doesnt give them the right to start with criticising me etc. I a snow lover too but I not one of these peopel who refuse to accept that Ireland has a temperate climate and where snowy winters are statistically less likely than snowless ones.... and by the way I got a few messages from people in here agreeing with me and saying that they afraid to disagree with people in hereo because they will get banned etc.... very North Korea..

It's still a forecast you are giving tho. Met, UKMO & ECM (that is where the information for your operational meeting comes from?) would still be just forecasting. So 10 days out is by no means a certainty. It may not be game over yet ;-)

Although the game probably is over

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But it's only trending east early on like the UKMO, what happens after that? The UKMO shows a westward retreat.

In FI! I'm more interested in the short term, Anything after day 5 doesn't interest me as it will change.

Will be fun to see what happens, Your credability is going down beast.... down!!

:P

Musicman2000

baraca wrote: »

In FI! I'm more interested in the short term, Anything after day 5 doesn't interest me as it will change.

Will be fun to see what happens, Your credability is going down beast.... down!!

:P

Someone talking scene FI is 120 hours if even at the moment.

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

In FI! I'm more interested in the short term, Anything after day 5 doesn't interest me as it will change.

Will be fun to see what happens, Your credability is going down beast.... down!!

:P

Three letters for you E..C..M :P

Mhuhaha!

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Three letters for you E..C..M :P

Mhuhaha!

Show me that chart at +96 and i'll concede!

BEASTERLY

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Someone talking scene FI is 120 hours if even at the moment.

Stock response when the models abandon the cold solution... ''the models are all over the place'' etc. Exact same things were being said 2 weeks ago.

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

Show me that chart at +96 and i'll concede!

You'll just have to wait a few days for that. BTW im not saying there definitely wont be a cold Easterly, just that it's unlikely.

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Stock response when the models abandon the cold solution... ''the models are all over the place'' etc. Exact same things were being said 2 weeks ago.

It is though we don't know what the jet is going to do, Is it going to go under the block or over?

If it goes under were in the proverbial freezer, If it goes over we can start looking at the CFS for summer :pac:

Musicman2000

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Stock response when the models abandon the cold solution... ''the models are all over the place'' etc. Exact same things were being said 2 weeks ago.

Beasterly its one run, If it keeps up the trend then you might be right, until then wait.

BEASTERLY

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Beasterly its one run, If it keeps up the trend then you might be right, until then wait.

I was saying this before the 12z ECM, im not just basing it on one run, my reasons have been given over the last couple of pages.

Birdnuts

Tonights runs suggest the tedium of winter 2011/12 shows no sign of ending:(

youngblood

Im calling it folks, Winter hopes are dead
Hopes of any cold weather never mind snow are
repressed until winter 2012/2013.

I wish I could say its been fun.......

(thanks again to all the great contributors on the weather forum!)

Rebelbrowser

seanknowsall wrote: »

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Absolutely. Forget the ECM and the UKMO. If the the DAA, or any other branch of the civil service, are saying no easterly then it truly is game over.

Eh... where did I say that the DAA said no easterly?? We go by the official forecasts (as mentioned in my post) from Met Eireannn and also the main European agencies... smart arent ya??

Its crazy in here at times... disagree or offer an opinion different to what the sacred few say and you are lambasted and accused of trolling. I am passing on what was discussed at an operations meeting... no freeze for next ten days... just because people dont like that small piece of information doesnt give them the right to start with criticising me etc. I a snow lover too but I not one of these peopel who refuse to accept that Ireland has a temperate climate and where snowy winters are statistically less likely than snowless ones.... and by the way I got a few messages from people in here agreeing with me and saying that they afraid to disagree with people in here because they will get banned etc.... very North Korea..

Firstly you are free to say what you want. You probably know a lot more about weather than I. I was only having a laugh at the idea that there was anything more definitive in what you are told at work versus what the models are saying. Whoever gives the DAA their forecast is working off the same models. Look chances are you are going to be right.Certainly no offence was meant and sorry if tone suggested otherwise

derekon

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Firstly you are free to say what you want. You probably know a lot more about weather than I. I was only having a laugh at the idea that there was anything more definitive in what you are told at work versus what the models are saying. Whoever gives the DAA their forecast is working off the same models. Look chances are you are going to be right.Certainly no offence was meant and sorry if tone suggested otherwise

Hey Rebelbrowser, as a neutal observer I took your comment in the tone it was meant i.e. funny! Quite a dry comment to make and you actually cheered me up......I will be checking the DAA website going forward for my weather forecasts :D

No offence intended to anyone

D

Villain

It's too close to call tbh the decent cold could end up 200 miles off the East Coast or make it all the way to the Western side of Ireland. Making a call either way now is betting really.

derekon

A couple of weeks back, the models showed some decent cold heading to Ireland in the final days of January.

Last Friday, the big weather news was that a major change in the models was occurring and that cold weather could be with us during the first few days of February.

Today, the GFS is puts any serious cold out until about the 10th February.

Anyone noticing a pattern here?

D

Wild Bill

derekon wrote: »

Anyone noticing a pattern here?

No

Wild Bill

baraca wrote: »

Just look at that high in the Bay of Biscay !

Villain

seanknowsall wrote: »

As some of you may know I work at Dublin Airport.... and I can confirm that the word here is that there is no snow expected within the next ten days. Operational meeting this afternoon and someone brought up the potential snowfall and we were all told that the official forecast is for no snow and more mild windy weather next week. I also see Brian Gaze, who is just as expert as MT etc reckons its not going to happen either. Game over guys.....

With all due respect anyone who is giving the DAA that sort of certainity is playing a VERY dangerous game. Met Eireann update this evening is

Current indications suggest that next week will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees by day and with sharp or severe frosts at night.

I have been involved in helping some state bodies with forecasts and they all have a direct line to Met Eireann so I'm not sure who told the DAA the above but they are playing a dangerous game and if I was the DAA I would rely on Met Eireann.

No matter what people may think here they have the knowledge, expierence and tools.

derekon

Wild Bill wrote: »

No

The pattern is simply the cold is always one week out of grasp - so we never get it. Again donkey and carrot stuff :D:D:D

D

Sponge Bob

Villain wrote: »

With all due respect anyone who is giving the DAA that sort of certainity is playing a VERY dangerous game.

They had an operational meet up in the airport is what Seán said.

At this stage, end Jan, they would have discussed.

1. Are we mad busy in Feb...no not mad busy unlike Christmas, check.
2. Are the staff on holidays leaving us short, No. check.
3. Is our winter stock of de icer run down......eh NO! as it happens, check.
4. How are we doing for salt for the runways,well sorted. Easy to get more??? Yes. check and check.
5. What are the lads over in the Met saying anyway. Nothing much. Check.

Finally.

To Summarise. Can we cope with a possible cold snap so lads.?? Why YES!

It was obviously a good operations meeting. Lots of positivity.

Yahew

the lads in netweather are very excited though, at least so far - ive got to 8pm today. Maybe its just England.

Yahew

nope, that went tits up too. Misery at 8:30pm. Winter is over.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

18z here we go.

Come on ya beauty

Villain

t|nt|n wrote: »

18z here we go.

Come on ya beauty

Ah the good auld "Pub Run" that could do anything

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Villain wrote: »

Ah the good auld "Pub Run" that could do anything

Thats why I love it so ! :pac:

TheMilkyPirate

Don't get to dis heartened if it shows nothing and don't get too excited if it does

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I shall sit quietly in the corner so

seanknowsall

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Firstly you are free to say what you want. You probably know a lot more about weather than I. I was only having a laugh at the idea that there was anything more definitive in what you are told at work versus what the models are saying. Whoever gives the DAA their forecast is working off the same models. Look chances are you are going to be right.Certainly no offence was meant and sorry if tone suggested otherwise

You're grand. Sorry I went a bit ranty! I guess that despite my apparant blase attitude towards the snow I am disappointed that it looks like next week wont be as cold as expected...