Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

NIALL D

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Snow in south Tipp this morning, as confirmed by mother dearest:pac:

where abouts in south tipp ???

TheMilkyPirate

Not great runs this morning, But it is the 6z GFS so i'd be waiting for the 12z.

ECM is worrying but is a mild outlier, If the trend showing this morning kept up throughout the day then i'd be a bit more concerned, But it's as you were for me so far today.

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

Not great runs this morning, But it is the 6z GFS so i'd be waiting for the 12z.

ECM is worrying but is a mild outlier, If the trend showing this morning kept up throughout the day then i'd be a bit more concerned, But it's as you were for me so far today.

TOLD YOU SO!!!!! :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

TOLD YOU SO!!!!! :pac:

You do realise that if this doesn't deliver there will be a witch hunt, and your name is what we are all searching for !

* Sharpens pitchfork :pac:

blackius

mike65 wrote: »

I'm just following the GFS on wetterzentrale, its hardly put a foot wrong (when within plausible time frame) so far this winter.

neither have any of the others though....
Depends on how elastic you call plausible to say whether they are reliable or not.
If models can't tell us whats going to happen within 5 days,they are not as helpfull.

For sure what joe public see's, a forecast for today and tomorrow and the next day,it's been ok for the met guys.
But beyond that they are walking tight ropes trying to get it pinned down.

Speak Now

mike65 wrote: »

I'm just following the GFS on wetterzentrale, its hardly put a foot wrong (when within plausible time frame) so far this winter.

Ah now Mike no porkies please

darkman2

Hi all,

Some excellent signs on the models today. DON'T take individual runs at face value - there is ALOT of uncertainty beyond just 96hrs.

The crucial sign for me is the gradual weakening of the Northern arm of the jet stream and the increasing signs of a stronger Southern arm which will support undercutting from the Atlantic. The UKMO at 144hrs is an example where we are almost perfectly poised. Make no mistake that is a fine setup for coldies.

The ECM goes off the boil beyond 96hrs but it is one of the warmer runs in it's ensemble set - there are many colder options in there. We shall have to see the 12z runs to see if any definitive agreement is reached among all the models regarding the short term evolution.

This is still on. No need to be disheartened at all if your looking for "the beast". Good signs mean good times ahead!

Vudgie

BoardsRanger wrote: »

Along the Military Rd. Wicklow near to the gated roadway to Kippure. Circa 500m asl. The difference in cloud cover from the first photo to the next was only over the space of a mile.

Anyone else seeing the face in the clouds...just me then:(

nacho libre

Unfortunately i have to say the latest stratospheric forecast update on netweather and some of the model outputs seem to back the post made by su campu a few days ago.
It appears the vortex has been disrupted into different segments, rather than a classic split occurring if we had a ssw event, which basically seems to makes it harder for tropospheric blocking to maintain because it comes under pressure from a section of the vortex.
Glacier Point, over on netweather, has talked about heights needing to be being maintained in svalbard to keep the russian high from sinking, if we're relying on that the odds seem to be stacked against us.
The bottom line is there just seems to be much energy left in the northern arm of the jet for the block to defeat the Atlantic.

average_runner

Anything from more than 72 hours out is a waste of time. There is no real cold spell coming as evidence over the last few weeks have pointed to that.


This thread should be closed until there is reasonable proof of a cold spell within 72 hours.

We are getting people hopes up or maybe even some people worried for no good reason at all.

Speak Now

Vudgie wrote: »

Anyone else seeing the face in the clouds...just me then:(

Thats freaked me out now

tzfrantic

when will we know if the east winds start to win

Redsunset

average_runner wrote: »

Anything from more than 72 hours out is a waste of time. There is no real cold spell coming as evidence over the last few weeks have pointed to that.


This thread should be closed until there is reasonable proof of a cold spell within 72 hours.

We are getting people hopes up or maybe even some people worried for no good reason at all.

It is a cold spell PROSPECTS and discussion thread of which there is indeed some. Nobody is misleading anyone here, I'm sure the regulars are all aware of the pitfalls by now.
Perfectly good thread with many posts of what may or may not happen.

Redsunset

tzfrantic wrote: »

when will we know if the east winds start to win

Trust me you will know, mass hysteria on this forum is always a good guide.

BigBrownBear

Vudgie wrote: »

Anyone else seeing the face in the clouds...just me then:(

Its like Bleeding Gums Murphy from The Simpsons:eek:

blackius

My confidence for the easterly is wavering.
The siberian low is going nowhere except south eventually and at present it's actually doing harm to cold prospects by returning siberian air [the opposite of warm air advection] into scandi.
Thats a height lowering recipe not a rising one for there.

Bad ecm later and you'll see a one word post from me.
Curtains (for this attempt)

I don't see where another attempt can gain legs at this stage.

Sponge Bob

Ah no , that is The Wicked Witch of the West.

nacho libre

The gfs and ukmo do not make for pleasant viewing- too much energy going north and the block will eventually be sunk. The chances of an easterly look slim now

Gerry Murphy will be relieved if he's doing the farming forecast on Sunday

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

The gfs and ukmo do not make for pleasant viewing- too much energy going north and the block will eventually be sunk. The chances of an easterly look slim now

Gerry Murphy will be relieved if he's doing the farming forecast on Sunday

The Uk Met office still think that its 2/3 in favour of cold for February which is surprising given the models.

nacho libre

blackius wrote: »

I don't see where another attempt can gain legs at this stage.

there is another windows of opportunity in 10 days time- the story of our winter so far. i wonder did the solar storm have any impact on events.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

The Uk Met office still think that its 2/3 in favour of cold for February which is surprising given the models.

I think tomorrow their update may read a bit differently. i'd really love to come back in two days time and read of a beasterly coming. unfortunately it's rarely the case when models downgrade the prospects for cold at this range that we get a massive upgrade at the last minute. maybe this will be the exception.

diceyd

was in work in dublin airport this morning at half 4 and it was lashing sleet and fair bit of large snow in there to

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

I think tomorrow their update may read a bit differently. i'd really love to come back in two days time and read of a beasterly coming. unfortunately it's rarely the case when models downgrade the prospects for cold at this range that we get a massive upgrade at the last minute. maybe this will be the exception.

from what i have read the GFS yesterday was similar to today when they made their prediction and if anything has improved in the short-term - its not like some big downgrade or change in the models. not sure how relevant the human input is but it seems to overrule what the models are indicating in terms of the GFS.

munsterlegend

i wonder what time the DAA Meteorological Meeting update is scheduled for...

blackius

munsterlegend wrote: »

The Uk Met office still think that its 2/3 in favour of cold for February which is surprising given the models.

Well from their point of view,Scotland and the north of England will always be coldish.
SE England where millions of people live only needs a small feed from the continent and it's cold enough for snow should it get precip.
Ireland however is not going to benefit from a siberian high unless it moved to scandinavia and it shows no signs of doing so.
There is a stand off and we jutting into the atlantic as we do are inside the atlantics territory for that stand off.

The atlantic will win out now I think as no WAA just cold heading into scandi so no high coming there just a ridge that kills off hopes of a proper easterly as the ridge connects with the high to our south..

Expect a milder MO outlook soon.
It never more than 50:50 anyway.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

from what i have read the GFS yesterday was similar to today when they made their prediction and if anything has improved in the short-term - its not like some big downgrade or change in the models. not sure how relevant the human input is but it seems to overrule what the models are indicating in terms of the GFS.

I certainly hope you're right, my confidence is low though that things will work in our favour. Su Campu's point about zonality winning out look to be right at this stage. Two of the three models seem to be trending this way by putting too much energy over the block. If the ecm backs them this evening it's hard to see a way back(at least for now)

pistolpetes11

blackius wrote: »

Well from their point of view,Scotland and the north of England will always be coldish.
SE England where millions of people live only needs a small feed from the continent and it's cold enough for snow should it get precip.
Ireland however is not going to benefit from a siberian high unless it moved to scandinavia and it shows no signs of doing so.
There is a stand off and we jutting into the atlantic as we do are inside the atlantics territory for that stand off.

The atlantic will win out now I think as no WAA just cold heading into scandi so no high coming there just a ridge that kills off hopes of a proper easterly as the ridge connects with the high to our south..

Expect a milder MO outlook soon.
It never more than 50:50 anyway.

Somewhat like this , although its FI and nearly not worth posting but just goes to show there is a small chance it could

darkman2

Folks,

I know some might be disappointed but for those saying "it's over", "won't happen" or whatever that's just not true. This is the UKMO 12z at 120hrs



Those that are familiar with the models will know just how close we are. A little tweaking is all that is needed and the floodgates open from the East. We need to weaken the ridge from the Southwest and see low pressure in the Atlantic undercutting the Scandi/Siberian high pressure and we are in. Essentially we need a little less energy in the Northern arm of the jet stream and a little more in the Southern arm. This is not over yet.


I also find that the layout on Meteociel can distort things to make the charts less condusive, worse then they really are. My advice is use Wetterzentrale.

Let's see what the 12z ECM progs later on.

*Wetterzentrale is overloaded atm. Here is the 12z GEM

BEASTERLY

darkman2 wrote: »

Folks,

I know some might be disappointed but for those saying "it's over", "won't happen" or whatever that's just not true. This is the UKMO 12z at 120hrs



Those that are familiar with the models will know just how close we are. A little tweaking is all that is needed and the floodgates open from the East. We need to weaken the ridge from the Southwest and see low pressure in the Atlantic undercutting the Scandi/Siberian high pressure and we are in. Essentially we need a little less energy in the Northern arm of the jet stream and a little more in the Southern arm. This is not over yet.

You're taking the piss right? To get real cold the high needs to orientated so that we are were the red arrow is on this chart. we are nowhere near ''close''

Sponge Bob

For once I agree with Darkman