Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

darkman2

The ECM is another step in the right direction. Serious stuff heading for the continent. Once again this is the posistion at 120 hrs. Serious cold pooling to the East and whilst we might not tap it on this run we are close to a synoptic setup that could propagate that cold our way. Watch this space!

TheMilkyPirate

Sponge Bob wrote: »

For once I agree with Darkman

Your not the only one, Upgrade again out to 96h on the ECM which is as far as i'm interested in atm.

darkman2

baraca wrote: »

Your not the only one, Upgrade again out to 96h on the ECM which is as far as i'm interested in atm.

Your absolutely right. And it is very important to highlight the risk. It may not happen but we, as a country, could hardly handle the cold periods of 2010 - nothing compared to the cold pool becoming established on the continent in the next few days. We could not handle this at all if it came heading our way

howlinwolf

upgrade,downgrade,upgrade,downgrade, holy hell its all over the place.....personally i think the mild westerlys will win out as they have the last 2 months just because they seem so strong and dominant this year but hey i hope im wrong:rolleyes:

BEASTERLY

Really shows the desperation on here when that ECM run is considered a good one! :eek:

Musicman2000

A slight push further west again, until the high comes collapsing down at 168hrs, but the high to our NW keeps pushing the cold into southern Europe, Greece and Italy are going to get the hit.

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Really shows the desperation on here when that ECM run is considered a good one! :eek:

It is a good run, Up until FI. Your not suggesting we take FI seriously are you?

Of course there is a risk it could materialise, But so could what we want to happen. Which is why we are discussing it.

sdanseo

Must say I'm a lot less inclined to read through this forum of late. Lots of frankly silly people having hissy-fit arguments. I'm a long time lurker here, occasional poster and someone who is extremely interested in the weather.

The idea of arguing over forceasts which everyone knows are totally at the mercy of mother nature's whim, however, is frankly beyond me.

I'm not a mod here, nor would I ever wish to be - but a serious dose of cop on is needed. No names. You're discouraging people like myself, I'm sure I'm not the only one. The educated and (even ones which differed) respected, well-thought-out comments, are slowly being diluted by petty flaming to the extent I don't really enjoy picking through the various opinions any more.

geetar

darkman2 wrote: »

Your absolutely right. And it is very important to highlight the risk. It may not happen but we, as a country, could hardly handle the cold periods of 2010 - nothing compared to the cold pool becoming established on the continent in the next few days. We could not handle this at all if it came heading our way

that is the best line ive read all winter.

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

It is a good run, Up until FI. Your not suggesting we take FI seriously are you?

Of course there is a risk it could materialise, But so could what we want to happen. Which is why we are discussing it.

Again I disagree, even at 96 hrs that positive NAO is really winding up!!

Not saying there is no good signs, there is! I just think the bad outweigh the good!

BEASTERLY

sdeire wrote: »

Must say I'm a lot less inclined to read through this forum of late. Lots of frankly silly people having hissy-fit arguments. I'm a long time lurker here, occasional poster and someone who is extremely interested in the weather.

The only arguing that is going on is in relation to different people's views of what is going to happen. Nothing wrong with that. I suspect im being one of the posters alluded to here, but anything I've posted has been arguing the forecast not the poster(with some light hearted banter mixed in)! And I haven't seen anything different from anybody else here. And if you're the type of person(not directed at you sdeire) that doesn't like arguments and disagreements then meteorology, and science in general, will not suit you very well. The only thing I have found annoying around here lately is the constant ''it's not what it used to be posts'' most of which are from non-contributors. If people are that interested they should start posting themselves and make it what they want it to be!

Oh and in relation to a lot of the regulars not posting here anymore, there's three reasons for that:
1. Boring weather.
2. If you don't forecast cold you're ignored. No matter how insightful. Forecast cold, even with no foundation, and you're the new king of the forum.
3. When you take an objective viewpoint to anybodies forecast, you just get accused of being a bully and ruining the forum by a third party.

blackius

Actually Beasterly,the NAO can be the lottery numbers in terms of positive if this block succeeds in shifting it's energy south as an undercut train.
Will this happen though.

Tonights ECM neither says yes or no.

Eastcoastryan

Blackius posted early in the week that it might be a good idea to stay clear of the models this week as they aren't good for the heart.. That was good advice and I wish I had listened. I've been up and down all week with upgrades and downgrades! It seems that even the models dont know what going to happen past 72 Hours. Has anybody been able to look back to before our last Easterly and see how the models peformed on the run up? I'm still hopeful that something will happen in the next 2 weeks and I'll happily wait if it means that at the end of it all we get a proper cold blast, even if the past 2 weeks have been such a rollercoaster ride.. hopefully there are more loops to come!!

Stay Positive!

BEASTERLY

blackius wrote: »

Actually Beasterly,the NAO can be the lottery numbers in terms of positive if this block succeeds in shifting it's energy south as an undercut train.
Will this happen though.

Tonights ECM neither says yes or no.

True, but the lows look a lot more reluctant to go south than that high...:(

Kippure

I feel like crying...please snow...:P

BEASTERLY

Kippure wrote: »

I feel like crying...please snow...:P

OK here's a tip, got and look at a chart for a few days time for ireland. Then pretend we're in the southern hemisphere and hey presto... mother of all b'easterlies! And it's lasted 3 months now and shows no sign of letting up. *

Warning: Looking out the window will destroy illusion and lead to a dangerous fall form that good place!

blackius

@EastcoastRyan It happens all the time lol and we all get sucked in every time.
Usual mix of posts.

@Beasterly We can't make a call at all on what that high wants to do yet so I wouldn't say what you have just said at all yet.
Also The jet is bending quite a bit even already given on current indications,it's hard set to push saturdays front past the welsh borders.

UKMO at Exeter who are paid to be considerably more knowledgeable than us,are keeping quiet on what happens next in their human opinion despite what their model run says or the rest of the models.

P.S I don't expect to have it certain in my mind untill tuesday or wenesday now.

Redsunset

Matthew Hugo
Without question after looking at the ECM ENS the 12Z ECM Det is a mild outlier!...cold scenario preferred...just! 8:42 pm - 26 Jan 12 via Twitter

darkman2

12z GEM shows a further westward shift of the really cold air by 144hrs. Like I say we just need an undercut of low pressure from the Atlantic and we are in. Blackius must be having palpatations at the mere thought of a fraction of that cold even reaching the East coast.


Baby steps

John.Icy

I'd have to agree with anyone being skeptical about this. Ridiculously stubborn HP to our SW, and until that weakens or is blown to pieces by an undercut, the best that would come to our shores would be colder uppers slowly advecting westwards with the natural progression of cold under a big scandi/russian HP, but pressure being far to high for anything to get going precip. wise (that is if Ireland was to sneak into a slight easterly airstream, away from no mans land that it currently looks like being in.)

Sure it's close, but it's also a million miles away if the Atlantic doesn't play ball and send a low SE.

aboyro

darkman2 wrote: »

12z GEM shows a further westward shift of the really cold air by 144hrs. Like I say we just need an undercut of low pressure from the Atlantic and we are in. Blackius must be having palpatations at the mere thought of a fraction of that cold even reaching the East coast.


Baby steps

could badly do with being undercut with a low pressure, need a nice low in biscay for some decent surf with a snow flurry thrown in for good measure, Come on Feb:)

BEASTERLY

darkman2 wrote: »

12z GEM shows a further westward shift of the really cold air by 144hrs. Like I say we just need an undercut of low pressure from the Atlantic and we are in. Blackius must be having palpatations at the mere thought of a fraction of that cold even reaching the East coast.


Baby steps

Now that is more like the orientation of the high that we need

Anybody got any verification stats for the GEM compared to the big two?

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

darkman2 wrote: »

12z GEM shows a further westward shift of the really cold air by 144hrs. Like I say we just need an undercut of low pressure from the Atlantic and we are in. Blackius must be having palpatations at the mere thought of a fraction of that cold even reaching the East coast.


Baby steps

Now that is more like the orientation of the high that we need

Anybody got any verification stats for the GEM compared to the big two?

I think it's respectable enough, Not as good as the big 3 but better than some lesser models.

I think!

Su Campu

Someone was complaining earlier about the model programmers and that they should start from scratch. The problem is that the past few weeks we have seen a turbulent transition in the upper atmosphere from its settled state of early winter, which has changed the pattern in the troposphere somewhat. Our understanding of the dynamics of all this is still not ideal and as a model is only as good as the info fed into it then they can't be held responsible for the current confusion. Garbage In, Garbage Out. There's still a lot we don't know about our atmosphere, but as our knowledge grows then so will the model performance.

kstand

I live in London and it seems to me based on those charts from all the models I have looked at that the battle ground will skirt the east coast of England and even that is questionable. The prospect of real cold has remained in FI now for weeks on end and nothing has materialised. And even now, nothing looks like materialising.
Time for someone to post up the picture of the lad with the bunch of straws.

hotwhiskey

Sorry guys i have finally jump of the fence!!!

pauldry

yup hotwhiskey i think the only thing spectacular about this Winter (apart from the mini blizzard in Sligo this morning) is that it will be one of the mildest on record!

oterra

....And they all lived happily ever after. The End.

fizzycyst

oterra wrote: »

....And they all lived happily ever after. The End.

Until the next model run

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The only arguing that is going on is in relation to different people's views of what is going to happen. Nothing wrong with that. I suspect im being one of the posters alluded to here, but anything I've posted has been arguing the forecast not the poster(with some light hearted banter mixed in)! And I haven't seen anything different from anybody else here. And if you're the type of person(not directed at you sdeire) that doesn't like arguments and disagreements then meteorology, and science in general, will not suit you very well. The only thing I have found annoying around here lately is the constant ''it's not what it used to be posts'' most of which are from non-contributors. If people are that interested they should start posting themselves and make it what they want it to be!

Oh and in relation to a lot of the regulars not posting here anymore, there's three reasons for that:
1. Boring weather.
2. If you don't forecast cold you're ignored. No matter how insightful. Forecast cold, even with no foundation, and you're the new king of the forum.
3. When you take an objective viewpoint to anybodies forecast, you just get accused of being a bully and ruining the forum by a third party.

1 Whilst the weather maybe boring the charts have been brilliant , its been like watching a thriller with each run , will it wont it , its good its bad etc

2 Whilst the majority of people on this forum favor a cold scenario to say others are ignored is rubbish IMO , It was only discussed this morning that the Zonal scenario that Su Campu had given his thoughts on looks the most likely , Sponge Bob had a excellent call on the Xmas mild period again not ignored.

3 I agree with you here , just because someone has a different viewpoint it does not mean that they are picking on an individuel, but the style/tone of the posts sometimes do come across badly and this is what people end up believing