Urban Sea's Final Log

UrbanSea

Well I've had a few logs and they seemed to go well until I got on a poor run and generally lost interest,with the leaving cert being the main cause of that.

However,lately I've found that I'm backing more winners than I was and I've been posting in the Fancies for Today thread. I thought it'd be better to have a go at this one last time. I'd continue my last log but I'd be switching from real cash to virtual to real and back,where there were two different bank balances and it was just hard to follow and confusing.

I've also been betting in larger amounts than I had been previously. This isn't all of the time,but has been occurring more often of late. Stakes are generally anywhere from 5 euro to 100 euro, but I rarely have 100 or 200 on something I do quite fancy. I've made money on the Dundalk card every week since it's recommenced this winter and so I'll post a few for tomorrow night. I'm away at the minute and can't bet online so I've gotten a friend to place these bets for me,apart from the one where there is no price at the minute,so SP will do.


He's Got Rhythm 6.55 Dundalk 13/2
This doesn't look like a bad race and there are a number of horses in good form but I think the majority of these might be handicapped up to their fullest and so I think it might be worth taking a chance on something better handicapped. This horse is well handicapped with a rating of 74. He was second over a mile to Billyford off level weights last time out when he was beaten a length over a mile at Dundalk,beaten just a length. With a five pound pull in the weights tomorrow, he should at least narrow that,and the handicapper was kind to him after he dropped him a pound despite a good run. I also think that the step back to seven will do him good, as 3 of his 4 wins have come over that distance. He's lightly raced in the last year,and I think his run over six furlongs at Dundalk in November shows his most potential. Although he finished seventh,he was only beaten two and a half lengths by a really progressive horse in Gordon Lord Byron,who won after that and was placed in a nice handicap off a ten pound higher mark.
Wasn't disgraced either when he last ran over this course and distance in what was a good race worth 20k,despite him finishing twelfth,beaten over four lengths by Flic Flac. However,that was off a mark of 82 and he looks too well handicapped to ignore here tomorrow. Hoping for a good run and at least a place.

Stake:20 each way

Almadaa 7.25 Dundalk 9/1

Still a maiden after twenty five plus races but should lose his tag soon. Has some good placed efforts to his name, with one of his best runs being the time before last over course and distance when he finished a close up forth,beaten a length off a pound lower mark. The form of that race looks good,with the winner going on to be beaten by a neck in a stronger race off a mark six pounds higher and the second running a respectable race off a three pound higher mark. Didn't build on his run last time out but it's possible that a mile slightly stretched him and did well to finish around 3 lengths off the pace considering.
Despite not having won before,he has the form in the book to win here,as seen when beaten a length at Down Royal over this distance last year off a five pound higher mark having finished second the run before that off of this mark. A frustrating source,but this race looks particularly weak and he hasn't a bad draw in 7,and it is quite hard to make a serious case for a lot of others in the race. Each way bet again.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Hamalka 8.20 Dundalk 28/1

Not one to write home about but think this is overpriced. Has little worth while form since winning a maiden hurdle for Gordon Elliot and being second to Pires in a 2mile 1 furlong hurdle race but has dropped drastically in the weights from a one time mark of 73 when trained with Barry Hills to a meagre 49. Shown little last two starts on the flat,one being over 2 miles at Wolverhampton off a mark of 57 but didn't actually run all that bad last time out over a mile and a half at Dundalk. He was beaten over ten lengths,but was racing 17 pounds out of the handicap. In a race as weak as this with poor form on display for the most part(some with good form have been creeping up in the handicap) she's worth a small each way.

Stake:7.5 each way

UrbanSea

And finally

Cathryn De Medici 21.15 Dundalk

Very lightly raced for a seven year old as she's only having her forteenth start tomorrow. She's possibly very well handicapped on her earlier form, as she was rated 64 back at the end of 2008 prior to a break of 3 years. She was last seen when placed in a maiden at Dundalk over ten furlongs. She obviously needed the run on her return over a mile and a half here at the end of September,finishing fourteen lengths behind the winner off a mark of 52,but had been backed, halving in price from 14/1 to 7/1. However,she duly improved next time out off of this mark when forth last month over the same course and distance,beaten over 3 lengths. However,she lead to within the final furlong and so a drop in trip should suit,and drops back to ten furlongs here. She reopposes the winner Imprudent Miss off of a six pound swing in the weights, and should run well.

Stake:30 euro

UrbanSea

Wasn't going to have any more but this price looks big.

Kalacan 7.50 Dundalk 14/1
Looks very well treated compared to some of his old form given that he's rated just 59 today. His mark has been plummeting from a high of 92 since May, clearly he hasn't been showing a whole lot but I don't think he's been running that bad that it warrants such a drop. He ran well from a break last time out over a mile of a mark of 60,having been dropped 8 pounds following a poor run at the Curragh in a decent handicap. Had been beaten five lengths off a mark of 70 over six furlongs the race before that but that trip is probably much too short for him, and he could cash in on a lenient mark

15 each way

Oscars Well.

Best of luck Urban!

UrbanSea

Thanks Oscar.
Had a dream last night none of these placed. Turns out only one did, bad start but not the end of the world.

Loss:96.25

UrbanSea

Westmeath 1.10 Naas 10/1

Looks a very strong novice chase and I'm going against the two short priced favourites for this fella. He was a smart hurdler last year but don't think he truly fulfilled his potential,only winning a 2 and a half mile maiden,albeit a strong one looking back,before pulling up in a grade 1. He was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler however as he was a winning pointer.He made a nice start over hurdles,winning first time out at Gowran over 18 furlongs before tailing off at Galway when a short priced favourite for a grade 3 chase. That form is too bad to be true,and was amiss post race. The question for me would be whether or not this trip of 2 miles would be too short,but he won his novice over 2 furlongs further and he can handle heavy going. Just a small each way because there are only 6 runners.

Stake:10 each way

UrbanSea

Piraya 2.30 Hereford 11/2

Not one to put the most amount of faith in for win purposes and is having only his forth start over hurdles since 2009 off a mark of 116,having plummeted in the weights from his 136 he raced off at Cheltenham 2009. He ran his best race yet over hurdles last time in a much better race than this at Ascot,when finishing forth,beaten around seventeen lengths. Not the most modest of distances but he is potentially well handicapped,given he is 20lbs higher over fences and this is a considerate step down in class tomorrow. The price with William Hill is a stand out for each way purposes.

Stake:15 each way

UrbanSea

Waywod Princess 3.00 Hereford 4/1
Improved beyond all known form for switch to handicaps and a step up to three miles last time out when gaining her first win off a mark of 64,finishing around four lengths ahead of Thorncliffe tomorrow who finished in third, who she reopposes tomorrow with a ten pound swing in the weights,given that she was put up ten pounds. That number leaves Thornville a more than realistic chance of reverse that form according to the weights,but he was seemingly exposed in handicaps before that,and the extra 2 furlongs should help my horse tomorrow,due to the fact that she only took it up in the last 75 yards while Thornville weakened. This otherwise looks a weak race,with the favourite under priced to me,but a switch to handicaps and upward trip may help her. I'll take my chance on this one though

Stake:40 euro

UrbanSea

I don't like having so many bets but one more for me.

Bandstand 3.20 Southwell 7/1

Looks to be on a good mark here off a rating of 75. His form figures aren't too flattering reading given that he was ninth and eighth last twice,but he was beaten less than 2 lengths last time out and has been dropped two pounds for that which seems to be quite lenient. He's off since November but could run a big race if fully fit,as he has proven before he can handle the surface,as he finished runner up twice here in maidens. Is unexposed for a 6 year old,as he's just having his eleventh start tomorrow.This is an easier race than his Kempton race,and a decent claimer takes off five pounds. Could run into a place.

Stake:10 each way

Nulty

Give em hell Urban

UrbanSea

I'll try Nulty. Westmeath pulls up.Just hope it isn't another white wash

UrbanSea

Bandstand gets me out of a hole for a small profit today. At least I got my first winner on the board.

Loss:82.65

UrbanSea

Edit: I thought Piraya was unplaced. Balance is better than I thought.

Loss:51.15

UrbanSea

Golden Flight 3.55 Wolverhampton 4/1

A terrible race and not one where any horse stands out as being one to put too much faith in. This gelding is a nineteen race maiden and falls into that category,however tomorrow could be his day. He has shown little over hurdles or on the flat since his maiden days when he was with John Hills and entered handicaps off a mark of 68. Has since changed hands twice and has seen his mark drop to 47 since racing in Ireland. His poor run continued,predominantely racing over 7 furlongs or a mile,but stepped up on all known form when fifth last time out at Dundalk over this distance,beaten a little over 2 lengths as a totally unfancied 66/1 shot. I'm hoping that he can build on that and that this distance will be his new awakening, and Irish low grade handicaps do tend to be stronger than those of the English ones.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

Mac Federal 15.10 Taunton 13/2

Was originally going to go with Dantari in this race but I'm unsure about his ability to stay three miles but could be well handicapped. The current Paul Nicholl's trained favourite is sure to be popular with Ruby aboard but he seems very high in the weights. He won a maiden hurdle first time out over two miles but both starts since have been poor,first beaten at odds on and then a well beaten favourite in his come back over an extended 2 and a half miles,where he finished 2 and a half lengths behind Dantari off 4 pounds better off.It's possible he needed that but I'll take a chance on Mac Federal.

He hasn't been seen over hurdles in nearly 5 years (since April 2007) but was a decent hurdler before that, winning good handicaps at Kempton off of this mark before tackling tougher contests,eventually rated 130. However,he ran twice last year on the flat,beaten a nose on the first occasion,and if he retains some of his ability he could be very well handicapped here tomorrow. There has already been money for him (was as high as 14/1) and he could run a big race if fully fit.

Stake:20 each way

UrbanSea

Aw I'm so raging.
Was going to back Made in Time at 14/1 last night but was put off that there was only 2 places being paid and he wins. I think I'm going to take a little advice from Pyro and avoid each way.
Golden Sunbird is now as big as 9/1,not expecting much

UrbanSea

Going to have a tenner on Is it Me 4.10 Taunton 25/1

Was a decent horse prior to a long break and has subsequently dropped a lot in the weights. Didn't complete on his run over course and distance last time which was his come back,but this is his easiest task in years and he should at the very least improve for his comeback

UrbanSea

No joy today. Two huge drifters. I absolutely hate that,your fate is practically sealed before they run. One from 4/1-9/1, the other was 5/1 this morning to 12/1.

Loss:121.15

ft9

Change thread title man ffs!!! Everytime I see it I think your dying and it makes me sad

Good luck with it by the way!!!

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

............ avoid each way.............

I was never a huge fan of e/w but the method Fryern uses I find very decent, I often employ a crude enough version of it
Only when the place terms on Betfair are suitable though, using a high street bookie's site offers 1/4 the odds so much more condusive to it most of the time.

UrbanSea

ft9 wrote: »

Change thread title man ffs!!! Everytime I see it I think your dying and it makes me sad

Good luck with it by the way!!!

Thanks 9. Hopefully this log can provide free meals at my funeral.

RoverJames wrote: »

I was never a huge fan of e/w but the method Fryern uses I find very decent, I often employ a crude enough version of it
Only when the place terms on Betfair are suitable though, using a high street bookie's site offers 1/4 the odds so much more condusive to it most of the time.

I don't understand his bets and I never back something that I can't understand.

I would have backed a 14/1 shot that one today but was put off by the each way terms. At least if I go win singles for the most part I'd be minimizing losses too,or so I hope.

I'll see how it goes,I won't rule out each way shots,I'll still probably do some,but cut down on the amount that I do

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

..............
I don't understand his bets and I never back something that I can't understand.

..............

Take a 12/1 shot in a 1/4 the odds e/w handicap.

€2.50 e/w and €5 win yields €10 back if the horse is placed which is your stake back and no more. As you know, generally when a fancy doesn't win it usually doesn't place, so you're just putting a little on the place to cover your stake and your stake alone, no profit.

Fryern broke it down for a good few prices once in a post of his.

Of course in the above example there's €7.50 on the win at 12/1, I think it's better use of a tenner than going €5e/w on a 12/1 shot anyway

Apologies to clog your thread :pac:

UrbanSea

Phar Again 1.40 Leicester 13/2

I'm a big believer in horses for courses and this horse loves it around here. It's winless for almost a year since winning twice in a row over course and distance,first off a mark of 80 in this race last year before doing the same off a mark of 87. He runs tomorrow off a mark of 97,but proved that he can handle a mark somewhat similar to it when he was second over this course and distance off a mark of 94 following his double,when he was just beaten a head. He has been largely disappointing since,but his second place at Towcester the run before last off a mark of 93 was much more encouraging, when he was beaten a length. Ran too badly to be true last time out on Boxing day,but the drift said it all,going from about 5/1 to an SP of 11/1. Not the most straightfoward,but a few in the market ahead of him look underpriced,particularly the 7/4 favourite,and a return to this track might see him improve.

Stake:30 euro

UrbanSea

RoverJames wrote: »

Take a 12/1 shot in a 1/4 the odds e/w handicap.

€2.50 e/w and €5 win yields €10 back if the horse is placed which is your stake back and no more. As you know, generally when a fancy doesn't win it usually doesn't place, so you're just putting a little on the place to cover your stake and your stake alone, no profit.

Fryern broke it down for a good few prices once in a post of his.

Of course in the above example there's €7.50 on the win at 12/1, I think it's better use of a tenner than going €5e/w on a 12/1 shot anyway

Apologies to clog your thread :pac:

Aw so you're backing it twice. Thanks for explaining that,it turns out it isn't that hard to figure out haha.

UrbanSea

St Ignatius 12.55 Southwell 13/2

Doesn't have the best wins to runs ratio but is a two time winner,including once at Southwell. Hasn't been in the best of form of late since his last win at Brighton back in April,but that was off a mark of 54 and he races tomorrow off a mark of 47. He's been slowly coming down the handicap for some below par efforts but has been running ok in a few of them,including being placed here twice off a mark of 54. He's stepped up to a mile tomorrow which should suit given he was never at the races in his last race here over seven furlongs where he was always outpaced as the gambled on favourite,going off at 7/2 having been available at about 9/1 that morning. Better was clearly expected of him and hopefully he can improve tomorrow.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

M J Woodward 2.25 Southwell 6/1

This is one of those times when I see a price on a horse and think that I'm missing something. He's taken to fibresand like a fish to water,winning over course and distance last week off a five pound lower mark,making it 2 wins out of 3 runs for him at Southwell. This is undoubtedly a better race but he could have a bit in hand of the handicapper yet,given that he's carrying the mandatory penalty yet is one pound lower on official ratings,something I can't quite grasp. Landed a gamble in the process,and should give a good account of himself.

Stake:15 euro

... he's rated 9lbs lower than the topweight and carrying 9lbs less, indeed he's rated 5lb higher than last time out but that wouldn't mean he would literally carry 5lbs more, if entered in the same rated race as lto he would though

UrbanSea

No James I meant he ran last time off a mark of 55 but today he's racing off 54 and a 6 pound penalty?

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

No James I meant he ran last time off a mark of 55 but today he's racing off 54 and a 6 pound penalty?

Apologies, only glanced at the RP card last night, indeed he has a 6lb penalty..........

4515-1 M J Woodward 7 6x 3 9-2 Paul Green83 Luke Morris 60

RP have his OR as 60 though. There is a pound gone missing though as you said.

UrbanSea

Think I found it.

Handicap ratings are given every week. The horse raced twice in a week,he was due to go down a pound before he won that race,so his revised mark was a pound lower,and he carries the penalty today