Urban Sea's Final Log

UrbanSea

I did two small bets for today.

Big Creek 3.40 Kempton 11/2
Was formerly a smart horse in Italy in his younger days, including when chasing home Worthadd in a Listed race as a three year old. That's the same horse who was second in the Lockinge behind Canford Cliffs. That's the best of his form and was held for the most part in better contests(did run in the French and Italian Derby). When he started racing in England he entered handicaps off a mark of 97 but was never really competitve off that mark,including twice in Listed races,while his handicap runs were predominantly in class 2 or 3 races. His best run was the other week after a three month break,off a mark of 80 in a ten furlong Lingfield handicap under Jamie Spencer,where he was beaten around three and a quarter lengths. He should appreciate the step back up in trip and should be able to be competitive off a mark like 79.

Stake:10 euro

Also had a tenner on Four Chimneys in the half three at Navan,that was following a tip I got.

UrbanSea

Two seconds yesterday

UrbanSea

Chac du Cadran 2.50 Southwell 4/1

This is a competitive looking race for the track with a few unexposed sorts but I really do like the look of this fella. He's having just his forth start over hurdles. He made a promising debut over two and a half miles at Wetherby,beaten two lengths by Benefique before going one better at Towcester at the start of November. His first run in a handicap last time out was highly promising, stepping up to three miles off a mark of 114 on heavy going,which I don't think totally suited him that day (won at Towcester on good ground and won a fast ground point to point). However, he did travel well for a very long way before eventually being beaten around eleven lengths by Thehillsofuisneach. That is far and away the strongest form on offer, given that he was racing off a mark of 108 including a seven pound penalty, and won a Pertemps qualifier at the weekend off a mark of 130. The second has also franked the form, he was racing off a mark of 107 that day and since hacked up off a mark of 115. Even in third Chac du Cadran was fifteen lengths ahead of the next horse and the better ground tomorrow should see him do better and he has really strong claims of the same mark,given that you can't pick a hole in that form at all.

Just happened to have a read on the trainer's website too,he sounds like he's frothing at the mouth over the horse,saying today:
''the form of his last run at Uttoxeter is rock solid with both the 1st and 2nd coming out again and winning off much higher handicap marks. He is in great form and managed to dump me on the gallops last week ''

About the horse two days before his last run: A lot has happened since my last offering on Friday, firstly a scintillating gallop by Chac Du Cadran on Saturday morning, he has improved since his Towcester victory and will go to either Uttoxeter on Friday or Ascot on Saturday.

And just before that: Chac Du Cadran, who will have entries on Thursday, Friday and Saturday next week was simply awesome, I had the pleasure of riding him myself as he devoured the easyfix hurdles, my mouth is already watering at the prospect of him going over fences next season ! but there are more hurdle races to be won on the way !

If he runs to his last run he should be well in here. 5/1 is available but bet with Boyles in order to get a free bet after.

Stake:50 euro

UrbanSea

Thought I'd written back. Another second and backed into 7/4,so disappointed

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

Thought I'd written back. Another second and backed into 7/4,so disappointed

You aint the only one.

Still though great picking. If we could back 5/1 shots every day who go off 7/4 we would be wealthy wealthy men.

Keep em coming

UrbanSea

I actually forgot about this. Handy Andy subsequently did the biz and luckily I was on.


I still think Chacun du Cadran at 5/1 was one of the bets of the year, I can still remember seeing that race.


Breakheart 6.30 Wolverhampton 12/1

I've been doing little betting lately given I'm over in the States but got one of my mates to back this for me. One I've been following for quite a while, he looked like a real smart horse when trained by Andrew Balding, including when winning twice as a three year old, first time over a mile at Lingfield in a maiden before winning a good class 2 handicap at Ayr again over a mile. Showed better form in subsequent starts,beaten a neck off 85 in a 10 furlong 80k handicap and a short head at Ayr again off 89. Held his own for a couple of runs before his form began to dip and was sent to Michael Dods, though did run well when beaten 6 lengths by Green Destiny at Newmarket April 12 months ago off a mark of 90 and showed similar form at Redcar. Since then he has been mostly downhill and has switched trainers once more, but his rating has absolutely plummeted. His best run for quite a while was last time out when beaten 4 lengths into seventh off a mark of 60 at Lingfield over 10 furlongs. He steps up to 12 furlongs for the first time tomorrow and has first time blinkers on. It's a chance backing him but his rating of 57 is too good to be true if he retains any of his old ability and possibly the step up in trip may suit. This race doesn't take much winning and the favourite is totally opposable despite winning by 12 lengths last time out. Two reasons: It came totally out of the blue as a 25/1 shot and that was on fibresand. I'll probably keep backing this horse until my pockets are empty.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

Went off in front and weakened. I'm not giving up on him yet, maybe he should be held up, don't think he would get a mile and a half going off at a good pace.


One for tomorrow is Cooldine 4.30 Galway 14/1

Not much to say about him really but he previously looked like he could well be a Gold Cup winner after he won the RSA back in 09. Hasn't been as good since and it's clear that he's lost his way lately. However, on a going day he would be better than any of these and I'm giving him one more chance on the hope that summer racing may be up his alley. Small stakes on what's a big but probably right price.

Stake:15 euro

UrbanSea

No time for a write up as beer awaits. But one that I've been following for a while and has won twice here off much higher in the past is Maundy Money 6.40 Galway 14/1.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

No joy. No time for write ups again. Just some small ones tomorrow.

Hurricane Higgins 2.00 Goodwood 20/1

Stake:10 euro


Captain Joy 6.00 Galway 14/1

Stake:10 euro

UrbanSea

I do like a 20/1 winner. Captain Joy was an NR.

Profit:198.85

UrbanSea

Arnold Lane 4.55 Goodwood 18/1

Think this is a big price for a real good horse, though carrying top weight I think he can get away with a mark of 97 back on decent ground.He's had ten starts to date with two wins, first one coming first time out as a two year old at Leicester over 5 furlongs on good to firm ground, and looked a good two year old running well in minor events, including when beaten a length and a half by Gabrial and second to Artistic Jewel over 6 furlongs (now rated 102),beaten a length when giving him 5 pounds. His next win came back in May at Chester off a rating of 94, beating Gabrial a neck over an extended 7 when giving him 5 pounds, and that horse is since rated 108. Though he has soft ground form, he has struck me as a horse who appreciates better ground, and he was disappointing when beaten in a conditions race at Newbury two starts ago on real bad ground, though it was strong for a conditions race. Prior to that he had run more than credibly in the Prix Jean Prat on good ground at Chantilly, beaten a shade over 5 lengths. That form is more than good enough to win this, and I think he could be a group horse in a handicap here. Think he's a massive price and has a better chance than it suggests.

Stake:30 euro

UrbanSea

Run With the Wind 16/1 4.50 Galway

I never have too much confidence going in to these big handicaps where every horse is actually trying but I do like the look of this horse. He's only a six year old and and having just his eighth start over hurdles. He was originally a bit frustrating, but he has come in to his own since finishing second to a good horse in Il Fenomeno(rated 135) in a 2 mile maiden hurdle last back end at Punchestown,with the pair well clear of a subsequent winner. He's won both starts over hurdles since, first at Ballinrobe over two miles at the start of the summer,keeping on well to beat subsequent winner Primroseandblue, but was even more impressive last time over an extended 2 miles when beating Thomas Edison under two weeks ago at Killarney. That performance was very promising, Thomas Edison was a very smart bumper horse (he beat Champagne Fever) and is probably a good hurdler, having won his maiden with ease the time before having fallen at the first attempt. The way this horse kept on that day and in previous runs suggests the step up in trip shouldn't be a problem for him, and given that he just gets in with a penalty would suggest this has long been the plan.He carries just 10-7 with Adrian Heskin taking off 3 and has a very good chance I think.

Edit:What made me think it was two and a half
Stake:25 euro

UrbanSea

Didn't really fancy much today apart from the Fugue but forgot about it.


Arnold Lane was second, I didn't even hear the other's name in commentary the other day.

Muzak 2.15 Galway 8/1

This is a huge price for this fella who won the other day at the festival quite cosily. Should run a big race under a penalty.

Stake:30 euro

UrbanSea

He halved in price but was no good, maybe the race came a little early. One bet for tomorrow, though I may have another in the morning for a horse I've been following for a long time when it's priced up, that's if I'm up in time.

Light From Mars 8.50 Wolverhampton 12/1

Previously a very smart horse who has been on the slide of late though contests a a class 4 race for the first time since 2009 when he won at Windsor off a mark of 83. He's been contesting hot races since then, and has 2 wins in the mean time, but has been placed numerous times off much higher marks than tomorrow's of 80, including a really good win in the Spring Cup last April 12 months when with Dandy Nicholls at Newbury over a mile off a mark of 97. Hasn't been as good since, though has been contesting much better races than this. Had a good run earlier on in the year over this course and distance in the Lincoln Trial off a rating 15 pounds higher, beaten a shade over three lengths. A run similar to that should suffice here, he disappointed last time in a claimer, though back in a 0-80 and booking of Fallon is a good one, he is well handicapped and could go well.

Stake:20 euro

UrbanSea

One that is overpriced tomorrow is

Goodlukin Lucy 8.35 Carlisle 16/1

In a weak race and was promising two starts ago at Hamilton and is very well treated. Not one for much faith to place in though is interesting tomorrow

Stake:10 euro

UrbanSea

No joy. Johannisberger 3/1 is a huge price in the next at Roscommon. Lost my bollocks on it the day it was lame at Sligo, but should run well today.

Stake:30 euro

UrbanSea

Johanissberger redeems himself from the last day

Profit:183.95

UrbanSea

Most overpriced horse of the week

Treasure Beach 7.30 Leopardstown 3/1

Stake:100 euro

UrbanSea

Looks a strong renewal for a group 3 but this should be the class act of the race. He was one of the top 3 year olds in Europe last season, winning the Chester Vase on his seasonal appearance,beating Nathaniel who has proven himself to be one of the top 10-12 furlong horses in training. He improved on that to infamously be beaten a short head in the Epsom Derby by Pour Moi, literally ran down in the final strides, breaking my heart as I was on at 33/1. Made no mistake in a sub par Irish Derby,though Seville is a good horse, who reversed form with him when he did disappoint when running forth in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp just a shade over two weeks later. Can't really make excuses for that other than maybe he didn't travel over as well or the race came a little soon though it's only speculation. He then went on to run a really game race in the Secretariat Stakes, he only won by about a neck but that was over ten and it looked like he was a bit caught for toe, he stayed on really well to add a second group 1 to his tally.

Went off the boil a little bit since, though he was used as a pacemaker in the Arc for some reason that I still can't comprehend to this day, and it was a weak grade 1 at Woodbine that he was third in, but it was the end of a long season and even though he had run well in the Secretariat I'm never surprised to see a good horse go across the Atlantic and disappoint, as he did in his last race at Belmont when beaten as an odds on favourite. He didn't look like the horse he showed he is that day as it was a fairly weak race, though he was given a terrible ride by Spencer. Thankfully Colm O'Donoghue is back on tomorrow, and his third to Cirrus Des Aigles at the start of this year at Meydan shows that he still retains some ability. It's possible that keeping him closer to home and dropping in class should see the best of him. Galileo's Choice is a nice horse though I don't think any of the competitors are truly group 1 quality. He strikes me as more of an Irish Leger horse,while it'd be most disappointing if Steps to Freedom would prove good enough to beat him over a mile and a half en route to the Leger, whilst Bible Belt is a nice horse he probably isn't good enough, and the same could be said for Light Heavy, who I think may be better over 10 furlongs. Treasure Beach only has a rating of 115,very low for a dual group 1 winner but he should get back to winning ways here as there are no real excuses for him, it'd be disappointing if he didn't.

UrbanSea

One more for tomorrow.


The Bells O Poever 5.45 Haydock 7/1

Think this is a big price for a horse who could be very well handicapped. He has been contesting much better staying handicaps than this of late, and ran a good race last time out over 2 miles at Ascot in a class 3 handicap, only finishing 6th though he was only beaten 2 lengths off a mark of 77, while the run before that at Kempton off 79 is much more promising than upon first glance, Rumh was an easy winner though it was quite a strong race, with the likes of Late Telegraph, a race run over 6 seconds quicker than the course average. The main reason I think this horse is well handicapped though is based on its demolition job at Pontrefact last year over a mile and a half off a one pound lower mark than tomorrow, where he won out a very easy winner by 18 lengths in an apprentice handicap when ridden by Daryl Byrne,having won at Beverley before that. The form of the Pontrefact race is rock solid, with the second horse having won since as well as the forth, while even Kian's Delight who finished last has won twice on the flat in handicap company and twice over jumps.The two wins were the first two times the horse had worn blinkers, and it's poor form of late coincides with the removal of blinkers. They were back on last time and it can't be denied that it's last run was the best for some time, and it's possible the drop down to 14 furlongs and the reapplication of blinkers will help him improve once again in an easier race. I also think this is a summer horse,all of the best runs have come from May through September, and wouldn't surprise me if he were to get back to winning ways tomorrow with Mark Johnston on fire of late, having sent out an absolutely massive 27 winners since July 26th.


Stake:30 euro

UrbanSea

How disappointing. Bells o Poever went off at 7/2 but was never really dangerous. Treasure Beach really looks like a horse to avoid now. Will probably go for an American Grade 1 to try and salvage a stud career.

Profit:53.95

UrbanSea

Early ones for tomorrow.

B Fifty Two 2.05 Ascot 25/1

Stake:10 euro

Redact 3.00 Newmarket 14/1
Stake:10 euro

Anjaz 2.20 Haydock
Stake:10 euro

Just small bets as I don't strongly fancy much tomorrow but think those three are really overpriced.

UrbanSea

B Fifty Two was plum last.

Anjaz ran really well but could only manage forth.

Redact was only beaten about a length and a half but got absolutely no run over a furlong out. Think he would have won if he wasn't stuck behind horses.

Profit:23.95

UrbanSea

One small one today
Wakhan 16/1 5.05 Downpatrick
Stake:10 euro

UrbanSea

No joy. One for tomorrow with a write up to follow.

Gucci Doro 7.50 Chepstow 8/1
Stake:50 euro

UrbanSea

Looks a bad race tomorrow and this is a bit of a shot in the dark but think 8/1 was a big price for this fella. He was an 85,000 guineas purchase as a yearling, and is a half brother to a prolific winner and a maiden winner, whose dam was Listed place over 10 furlongs and is by one of the leading US stallions in Medaglio D'Oro who stands at 100k, so a rating of 58 is disappointing considering his nice pedigree. He made an ok debut at Ffos Las as a 2 year old over a mile when staying on over a trip which looked inadequate to him. However, his next two runs in Redcar and Newmarket maidens weren't as promising. He made his handicap debut last time out over an extended 9 furlongs at Brighton, and he was extremely well backed, having been double figures in the morning backed into 4/1 co favourite of 3. That was a disappointing run however, though I can forgive horses bad runs at Brighton given the nature of the track. Better was clearly expected that day and I think this is a very weak race and he does get a ten pound weight allowance here.Favourite is a bit short in my eyes carrying such a heavy weight and doesn't strike me as the type to get too many back to back wins, though it did once a couple of years ago. It'll be interesting to see if the money comes for this horse tomorrow, or he could be a nag.Hopefully not