Brendan O' Connor trying to re-inflate the property market (again)

mariaalice

Why are people getting so excited about this...anyone who bases their decision to buy a house on things they read in the media deserves every thing they get IMO.

I dislike the indo as well I changed to the Sunday times a few years ago its a LITTLE bit better.

dory

mariaalice wrote: »

Why are people getting so excited about this...anyone who bases their decision to buy a house on things they read in the media deserves every thing they get IMO.

I dislike the indo as well I changed to the Sunday time a few years ago its a LITTLE bit better.

The problem is some people do listen. There are people out there who think if it's in a newspaper it must be true. I really can't believe that muppet is given a soapboax for this.

RGDATA!

gigino wrote: »

His show on Saturday night is better than Tubs on the Late Late, and he is successfully writing for the leading, most popular broadsheet Sunday paper.

now that's what i call "damning him with faint praise"

Paparazzo

Zamboni wrote: »

On the Brendan O'Connor thing, a failed comedian and a terrible broadcaster being allowed to write a piece on property in a national newspaper is just an epic fail.

Was just going to say that! Anyone that takes any property/business advice from Brendan O' Connor almost deserves to get burned.

Motorist

jmayo wrote: »

There are only two contributors on that rag that I have anytime for and they are Gene Kerrigan and Shane Ross.

I agree with you about Gene Kerrigan. He seems to be tolerated as a counterbalance if the Sindo are criticised for lack of balance, someone they can point to. What a job he has single handedly balancing the utter tripe and propaganda produced by the rest of the "journalists" there.

As for Shane Ross, dont forget 28th March 2004 - Ross said "Michael Fingletons Irish Nationwide published a cracking set of figures". "All Fingletons figures are spectacular". "Anyone who has a spare 20 grand might still have time carpet bag". Enda Kenny brought this to Ross's attention in the Dail this year, the whole chamber erupted in laughter including Ross who could not defend himself. Shame to see him try to rewrite history now, and interesting that he has never spoken out again Fingleton or Irish Nationwide.

http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110525,2964818,2964842,flash,257

5.00 minutes in.

Mr. Loverman

I'd love to know why he says this stuff.

Is it genuine denial (the older I get the more real and dangerous I realise denial is) or does he have some sort of crooked angle, for example, is he part owner of a ghost estate or something like that.

Spread

O'Connor is a prize DH. If it wasn't for his monobrow he'd be just an ordinary dickhead

The_Conductor

What seems to have escaped his attention is the fact that we have signed up to cut expenditure and raise taxes by 26 Billion- yep, 26 Billion, by 2017........
As the old expression goes- fool me once, more fool you, fool me twice, more fool me....... What a fool........

Spiritofthekop

I know someone who works close enough to this chap. He basically says he is a bit of a snake type character not to be trusted one bit and this type of stuff is simply just him looking after his friends property portfolios and his own wallett.

How he gets to give property advice to people on a national newspaper is just disgraceful.

I will never buy that paper.

Property

O'Connor has been bullish on subject of the Irish property market. In July 2007, four months after the peak of the Irish property bubble, O'Connor wrote an article urging his readers to invest in property, saying that "the really smart and ballsy guys are the guys who are buying when no one else is"[24] and "if I wasn't already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I'd be buying property". (Several years later, O'Connor castigated a journalist who brought up the subject of the article during an interview, claiming that it was a valid opinion originating from original thinking).[25]
However, in June 2009, O'Connor wrote an article blaming the governor of the Irish Central Bank, John Hurley, and his "cronies" for being responsible for "excessive lending" and for O'Connor and others being in negative equity.[26] In January 2010 O'Connor wrote of the media's role in the Irish property market when he said "we curse the politicians, the banks and the media that encouraged the madness

jmayo

Motorist wrote: »

I agree with you about Gene Kerrigan. He seems to be tolerated as a counterbalance if the Sindo are criticised for lack of balance, someone they can point to. What a job he has single handedly balancing the utter tripe and propaganda produced by the rest of the "journalists" there.

As for Shane Ross, dont forget 28th March 2004 - Ross said "Michael Fingletons Irish Nationwide published a cracking set of figures". "All Fingletons figures are spectacular". "Anyone who has a spare 20 grand might still have time carpet bag". Enda Kenny brought this to Ross's attention in the Dail this year, the whole chamber erupted in laughter including Ross who could not defend himself. Shame to see him try to rewrite history now, and interesting that he has never spoken out again Fingleton or Irish Nationwide.

http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20110525,2964818,2964842,flash,257

5.00 minutes in.

I don't know Ross's history on fingleton but he does go mention him in his book "the bankers".
The reason I admire Ross is his support of Eithne Tinney in EBS who probably prevented EBS becoming another INBS which probably saved us a fair few quid in fact.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/comeback-queen-1352866.html

Also admire him for his work in highlighting Eugene McErlean and his attrocious treatment by the the first IFSRA boss liam o'reilly and by AIB themselves.
Nerver forget IFSRA was a joke and an insider operation long before one patrick neary came to head it up.

Also really liked Ross's Dail committee interview of AIB cheif one eugene sheehy where he got him to make a grovelling apology to McErlean.

Also check out his article highlighting the joke that is the IAVI and how auctioneers work in this country.

http://www.shane-ross.ie/archives/292/the-auctioneer-and-the-oap/

He may not be perfect and I sometimes find him pontificating a little, but he shure as hell is one of our better business commentators and he was a huge asset to Dail finance committees and to the Seanad.
He has ruffled a fair few feathers in major Irish companies and institutions and to me that can only be a good thing.

dory

What is going on here?

The same poster who was on here defending BoC is on After Hours talking about the wonderful value out there: You can read it here.

Can it be the man himself?

cson

BostonB wrote: »

I assume Nana is trying to let the market decline a bit more slowly than causing a sudden crash. Or its a delaying mechanism for the developers, bankers and cronies.

If you release the amount of property NAMA have into the rental you'll likely see the arse fall out of rental prices which while good for the consumer is bad for the State, why? Because a lot of landlords are using rents to pay their mortgages and if the bottom was to collapse on this market then they'd likely default.

chris_ie

Piriz wrote: »

i guess anyone who does buy in the next year or two will contribute to the dead cat bounce which once we get that out of the way we can see a further decline towards the real market value...

This is one thing that bugs me about the current property market. We're buying a house a the moment, mention that to some people on here and the reaction is "oh you should wait, prices will drop further", "cant believe you'd buy a house now" etc. All this without even knowing anything about the situation! Size of the house, size of the land, condition of the house, how much its costing. I could be buying the most energy efficient and finest finished house in Ireland with 5 acres of land for 50k for they know!

Yes there are still plenty houses out there that are way over priced. The house we are buying has dropped significantly and have also accepted less. So I, in no way, see ourselves contributing to a dead cat bounce.

Frank Black

chris_ie wrote: »

This is one thing that bugs me about the current property market. We're buying a house a the moment, mention that to some people on here and the reaction is "oh you should wait, prices will drop further", "cant believe you'd buy a house now" etc. All this without even knowing anything about the situation! Size of the house, size of the land, condition of the house, how much its costing. I could be buying the most energy efficient and finest finished house in Ireland with 5 acres of land for 50k for they know!

Yes there are still plenty houses out there that are way over priced. The house we are buying has dropped significantly and have also accepted less. So I, in no way, see ourselves contributing to a dead cat bounce.

I would put the same amount of faith in all the people going on about how low prices will be in 5 years time as I did in the cheerleaders of the property boom 5 years ago.

Don't listen to them - the truth is that nobody knows.

gigino

dory wrote: »

What is going on here?

The same poster who was on here defending BoC is on After Hours talking about the wonderful value out there: You can read it here.

Can it be the man himself?

(a) I am not Brendan O'Connor, not by a long shot !

(b) Just because some new 2-bedroom apartments can be bought for only 30 weeks average public sector gross wage does not necessarily mean they are "wonderful value" !

Mr. Loverman

black francis wrote: »

I would put the same amount of faith in all the people going on about how low prices will be in 5 years time as I did in the cheerleaders of the property boom 5 years ago.

Don't listen to them - the truth is that nobody knows.

It's not fair to compare the people making predictions now with the idiot cheerleaders five years ago.

Based on what we know about our economy (it really is absolutely ****ed, there is simply too much debt and sadly we need to borrow more) we know for sure that the next few years will be horrible.

So it is fair to say prices will continue to decline over the next few years. Couple of big reasons:

Young people (i.e. first time buyers) emigrating.
Banks not really giving out mortgages.
Economy totally ****ed and getting worse by the day.
Hundreds of thousands of empty properties.
House prices still fairly crazy.
NAMA eventually unloading some of its portfolio.

I was one of the people who was screaming we are in a bubble! a few years ago. It was obvious. The cheerleaders predictions were based on nothing. Well, that's not totally right, their predictions were based on their vested interest in people buying property.

I know there are some doom and gloomers, and people who hope (and say) prices will drop because they are waiting to buy so they have a vested interest in prices dropping, but if you look at the facts of how ****ed the economy is it is fairly obvious house prices will continue to fall for a couple more years at least.

enoch

Consider the following timeline:
1. Approx 2006/7. Brendan O'Connor buys house. Property market peaks.
2. 2008. Property market starts to fall. Brendan O'Connor writes article advising readers to buy property.
3. 2008-2012. Property market continues to fall, IMF bailout, etc.
4. 2011. Brendan O'Connor writes series of articles arguing that people in negative equity should have debt forgiven by the banks, i.e. be bailed out by other taxpayers.
5. One of the arguments O'Connor uses for debt forgiveness is that the media encouraged the public to buy property when it was overpriced.
Some interesting links here and a lot of irony, particularly if you read point 5 and then re-read point 2.

Other arguments used by O'Connor to justify debt forgiveness:
6. People who did not buy at peak or who borrowed less and bought smaller properties are urged to show solidarity with those who bought at peak or bought larger properties. No mention of whether those who bought property would have shown solidarity with those who didn't buy if prices had gone up, or whether they would have written countless articles supporting a bailout of people who failed to buy.
7. People who sold at the peak to be forced to share the profits of their good investment decisions with less successful investors, on the grounds that the sellers' success was simply a result of being born at the right time, and the buyers' losses were not a result of bad judgement, but simply of being born at the wrong time.
8. The argument that debt forgiveness is something all of us as a whole, the Irish public, will collectively benefit from at the expense of the bankers, i.e. getting our bail-out money back. No other taxpayer will lose as a result, apparently.
9. No acknowledgement that people who bought at the peak still owe exactly the same amount as they chose to borrow (and presumably thought they could afford to repay). They have not been lumbered with any more debt. In many cases, all that has happened as a result of the fall in prices is that they have to live in smaller houses than they would like as they can't trade up, and this is used as an argument for a bailout. No mention made of all other citizens who also have to live in smaller houses than they would like. Low income taxpayers who cannot afford to buy property are expected to fund, through their taxes, the mortgages of people who already own homes?

Disgraceful. Disgraceful. Disgraceful.

Mr. Loverman

Surely the guys loaded now with his RTE gig?

gigino

He probably is loaded with his rte gig, but its possibly on a 6 month contract or something ?

Anyway, in the guys defence + in fairness to him, he says in the conclusion of the original article

"And if we learnt anything the last time, is it not that the smart time to get into property, or anything for that matter, is perhaps not when everyone else is doing the same thing? So, is there enough blood on the streets now that you can get properties for a third of their previous value?
It's almost as if we have developed a new pathology now. Before, everything seemed like a bargain, no matter how expensive. Now, with asking prices of less than half what they were, we snootily ask who would be paying that kind of crazy money for houses.

So look, I'm not saying the smart ballsy guys are buying property now. But the rich ones are. Now remember, they are probably buying it selectively. Property is not a monolith. Depending on where it is and by how much the price has fallen, some property could represent good value now while plenty, still, maybe does not. But maybe it's possible to get too greedy on the downside as well. And maybe we need to try and avoid the kind of groupthink that got us all in this mess in the first place.
No one is saying to run out and buy your first house now, or to get back into the market. But maybe it's time that property wasn't a dirty word anymore. "

Personally I think property will fall for another few years at least, but O'Connor is entitled to his opinion.

checkcheek

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

It is fairly obvious house prices will continue to fall for a couple more years at least.

Is it really obvious??????, in 2006 Alot of people taught it was obvious that house prices were only going to go one way and that was up but a few months later they went belly up, how do you know house prices are going to keep fallin, in a few months time they could be on the rise

gigino wrote: »

Personally I think property will fall for another few years at least.

But in saying what i said up there i personally do think house prics aint gonna rise!!

Mr. Loverman

checkcheek wrote: »

in 2006 Alot of people taught it was obvious that house prices were only going to go one way and that was up

I'm not one of those people...!

Most people are idiots. I'm not an idiot.

Sorry if that hurts some people's emotions.

Frank Black

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I'm not one of those people...!

Most people are idiots. I'm not an idiot.

Sorry if that hurts some people's emotions.

The point is that you're projecting current trends as an attempt to determine future values - you may be right, you may also be wrong.
You've posted some reasons as to why you think property values will continue to fall, such as emigration, economic decline, oversupply of housing and tight lending practices by the banks.
Whether these factors will still be in play in 18months time is open to speculation.

I could just as easily give reasons why property prices may stabilise e.g.
There has been very little movement in the market since 2008 and Irish people have a preference for acquisition as opposed to long terms renting, mortgage rates are historically low, mass emigration has been overstated, especially when foreign nationals who are returning home are discounted from the figures.

Now I'm not saying that this means property prices will rise over the next few years, that would rather undermine the whole point of my argument. I'm simply saying that trying to predict what's going to happen in the future is a dangerous game as there are too many unknown variables.
I posted that I have the same amount of faith in the doom-mongers that I had in the cheerleaders - you can claim that you're not an idiot, but I'd never base a decision like purchasing a property on someone else's advice, whether that be Brendan O'Connor or some keyboard warrior claiming that houses will be worth 80K in 3 years time (that's not a reference to you btw).

Mr. Loverman

black francis wrote: »

I'm simply saying that trying to predict what's going to happen in the future is a dangerous game as there are too many unknown variables.

I really don't like this argument because you can apply it to everything.

Me: I'm going out to a restaurant for dinner tonight.
You: Stop trying to predict the future, you don't know what will happen between now and tonight.

The reality is the factors which suggest house prices will continue to fall grossly outweigh the factors which suggest house prices will stabilise or rise.

Frank Black

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I really don't like this argument because you can apply it to everything.

Me: I'm going out to a restaurant for dinner tonight.
You: Stop trying to predict the future, you don't know what will happen between now and tonight.

The reality is the factors which suggest house prices will continue to fall grossly outweigh the factors which suggest house prices will stabilise or rise.

Are 'you' me and 'me' you in that analogy?

Because otherwise, I don't get it.

I mean, I'm the one saying to go to the restaurant, and you're the one saying it'll have closed down because of the recession.