How high will fuel go this year?

Dannyboy83

Just saw fuel is €1.60 per litre on the South Douglas road in Cork City tonight and was wondering how much higher it is expected to climb in 2012?

Is 1.60 per litre here to stay, or is it just an exchange rate blip?
Can we expect to see €1.70 per litre this year?

Another question I would like to ask - What is the situation with regard to black market fuel in Ireland?
A developed problem or just a developing one?

thebman

It is 1.51 in most the midlands/east area. :eek:

That is some difference.

Try using this:
http://pumps.ie/

zenno

petrol and diesel in swords co. dublin is petrol €1.59.99 and diesel is €1.54 if i'm remembering that correctly with the diesel that is. and i expect it to rise soon again with this Iranian garbage going on. sure it's Ireland, things only get worse here than better so no big surprise.

RichardAnd

Well according to an archive of pumps.ie, petrol was going for 129.9 euro per liter in October 2010. In October of 2011, it was going for about 1.50 per liter, on average.

Right now, my local station is charging 1.54 for petrol and slightly less for diesel. Increasing carbon taxes, along with a troubled middle east, will be conducive to driving this up further in my opinion. I would love to be wrong but I would say that petrol could easily cross the 1.60 euro by the end of the year.

The effect of this will be interesting (I use the term for want of a better one) as there will come a point when the cost prohibits usage of a car where it otherwise may have been used. Already, many do not drive as often as they used to.

blogaclese

Guess i'll be on the bike more.
Altho they'll probably put bike toll booths in somewhere so that we need to pay to cycle also.

antoobrien

blogaclese wrote: »

Guess i'll be on the bike more.
Altho they'll probably put bike toll booths in somewhere so that we need to pay to cycle also.

Not a bad idea that, I'll send the proposal to Leo

antoobrien

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Is 1.60 per litre here to stay, or is it just an exchange rate blip?

The oil that was delivered to refineries in December (which we should be seeing in the forecourts now) was a couple of euros/barrel more expensive than it had been in previous months, so it's probaly more to do with cost than the exchange rate.

The problem is when the price gets converted from the dollar amount to the euro amount - at the refinery (in europe) or at the wholesaler (in country)? The later it is the more effect the exchange rate will have on the price. E.g. the $111 average price for December averaged at about €81 if paid for in € on the day. Using today's rates that would cost about €86-7

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Can we expect to see €1.70 per litre this year?

It's a distinct possibility - especially if Iran keep talking they way they're talking.

mikedragon32

We could well hit €2 (and 0.9cent) before this year is out.

158.9 in Kilmacanogue this morning.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Feck This, I'm off to Venezuela;

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/mar/15/problem-insanely-low-petrol-prices

Duiske

mikedragon32 wrote: »

We could well hit €2 (and 0.9cent) before this year is out.

158.9 in Kilmacanogue this morning.

Even if the price of oil remained at todays prices for the next couple of years, we still have (at least) 2 more austerity budgets to get through, which would push petrol to near €1.70. Worst case scenario is a quick turnaround of world economies, which would increase demand, combined with military confrontation in the gulf region, which would effect supply. It would be anyones guess at that stage where prices would peak.

As a matter of interest, theres a petrol station on the south quays in Dublin thats been notorious for high prices. I think it's the only one on the quays. Anyone know how much they are charging at the moment ?

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Duiske wrote: »

As a matter of interest, theres a petrol station on the south quays in Dublin thats been notorious for high prices. I think it's the only one on the quays. Anyone know how much they are charging at the moment ?

Top on Usher's Quay, they're charging 153.9 for Petrol and 152.9 for Diesel today, if Pumps.ie is accurate. Its not astronomically high, but yeah I always noticed in the past that they were always higher than most.

antoobrien

Duiske wrote: »

As a matter of interest, theres a petrol station on the south quays in Dublin thats been notorious for high prices. I think it's the only one on the quays. Anyone know how much they are charging at the moment ?

Dunno, but it's under new management so they're about the same price as everyone else.

They were convicted of not selling the indicated amount last year though.

Dannyboy83

Duiske wrote: »

Even if the price of oil remained at todays prices for the next couple of years, we still have (at least) 2 more austerity budgets to get through, which would push petrol to near €1.70

This was the reason for the tail question in my OP.

In the last 2 weeks I have been offered:
A) Cigarettes for €4 per box (I don't smoke)
Diesel for €1 per litre (I don't drive a diesel)
C) Samogon for €8 for a 70cl bottle (I rarely drink)

It's already completely run of the mill to hear someone say they haven't bought an Irish box of cigarettes in 12 months.
I imagine if we keep going down the "Prohibition by Proxy" route, we are going to attract all kinds of criminal elements which inevitably follow.

NIMAN

I read recently that demand for petrol/diesel has dropped off in recent months.

As the price rises people will make less unnecessary journeys, and the price might find a level, hopefully not at €2/litre.

thebman

I noticed it has gone up a few cent in most stations today alright on my journey to work.

Hitting 1.55 in most stations.

waitingforBB

have to say that its getting to tipping point (anecdotally). I used to drive to work every day (even though I had the option to work from home). Used a full tank per week to commute. Now the tank costs 100 euro to fill I only commute 2 days per week.
Im lucky to have that option. So I'm spending the same as I used to a couple of years ago, but driving a lot less..

antoobrien

NIMAN wrote: »

I read recently that demand for petrol/diesel has dropped off in recent months.

As the price rises people will make less unnecessary journeys, and the price might find a level, hopefully not at €2/litre.

With about 60% of the price being taxes, demand isn't the driver of fuel prices here.

Carbon tax is €20 per tonne of Carbon Dioxide emitted - about 4.6c/l

Petrol:
Excise - 54.2c/l
Carbon tax - 4.6c/l
That's about 60c/l before we get to the raw materials & vat.

Diesel:
Excise - 43c/l
5.3c/l carbon tax
About 50c/l before raw materials and vat.

gurramok

Its hilarious stuff by the govt hiking fuel taxes in each budget. They expect us to spend to help the economy to recover(mostly retail as Noonan encourages us to spend) yet they hit us in the pocket to travel to and from work and also do said shopping. I say that as the majority of us still need the car to travel to work and shopping as public transport is expensive and in most cases inadequate.

Guess the flip side is the SUV mom might think twice about dropping Jane and Joe around the corner to school in order to save fuel costs!

doc_17

If Israel/America attack Iran.....
If Iran try to seal the Strait of Hormuz...
With excise and carbon tax already confirmed as rising in next year's budget....
If demand worldwide increases....
If we are anywhere near that "peak oil" thing

I'd say €1.80 is a serious possibility this year.

AlekSmart

gurramok wrote: »

Guess the flip side is the SUV mom might think twice about dropping Jane and Joe around the corner to school in order to save fuel costs!

I'm afraid,gurramok,that unless SUV Mom is surrounded by a gang of AK47 wielding terrorists,her thoughts will not even vaguely encompass Fuel Costs or the greater issue surrounding the "School Run".

The happiest childer I see everyday are those allowed the freedom to walk,run,cycle or get-the-bus ( :eek: ) and therefore explore the real-world which awaits them at the end of their school-days.

Yet,each day,on the many schools I encounter,its an obstacle course of SUV/4WD vehicles which begins ever earlier as the SUV Mom's battle for that space nearest the School Gate.....it's beyond comprehension at this stage.....and incredibly enough,it's worsening :eek: :eek: :eek:

thebman

Don't worry, the AA are on the case:
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/aa-ireland-super-taxes-on-fuel-doing-more-harm-than-good-540395.html#idc-cover

gurramok

161.9 for petrol is now widespread with warnings that the Iranian crisis will push it up further.

MadsL

If you think it a blip due to exchange rates I hate to tell you that we have seen 10% rise here in the US. New Mexico has the cheapest gas in the US, but we just jumped from approx $3 Gallon to $3.30 in less than a month.

Iran.

NIMAN

It seems to have been on a steady rise for the last month or two.

Now around the 158/159 mark locally.

I think we will see 180 by mid 2012, and €2 per litre in the next 12 months. Scary.

Think home heating oil will also pass the €1/litre this year.

thebman

gurramok wrote: »

161.9 for petrol is now widespread with warnings that the Iranian crisis will push it up further.

It is widely inconsistent. Makes me think, some pumps are either using up supplies to keep prices low for as long as possible or some stations are just ripping people off.

It is 1.56 where I live and 160 where my parents live. The area where it is cheaper would also have higher rents than the other place but both are in very busy areas, just different parts of the country.

gurramok

thebman wrote: »

It is widely inconsistent. Makes me think, some pumps are either using up supplies to keep prices low for as long as possible or some stations are just ripping people off.

It is 1.56 where I live and 160 where my parents live. The area where it is cheaper would also have higher rents than the other place but both are in very busy areas, just different parts of the country.

You and your parents, anywhere Dub related?

I'm quoting Dublin prices, northside and southside, bar the odd station who have it cheaper. They have gone up maybe 3 or 4 cent in the last 2 weeks. Yes, they are probably cheaper outside Dublin, has always the case even in the good times.

Lantus

I think we will all be seeing 168 to 173 at the pumps come the summer. The short term impacts of this being the Iranian issue which has yet to come to a head and oerall uncertainty.

We may see 180 peak. I think at this point we may have another mini slump as the oil prices affect our entire economy and output declines as no one can afford to transport or move goods or buy them!

This unfortuantley is a taste of things to come in the next 10 to 20 years as we move further towards a general break down of our economy and society. (sorry for the bad news)

In the medium to long term oil prices are heading in only one direction. One person mentioned peak oil. All of the evidence would suggest that we have recently passed peak and are now working our way down the decline side.

The UK's recent move to invest in nuclear would further compound this.

In relation to peak oil the biggest oil field in the world is Ghawar in suadi. SA provides 25% of all the worlds oil. This field is on decline and has been for several years despite tight secrecy from the saudi's (why such secrecy from all country's on their reserves?)

The saudi's are now moving to off shore drilling which is much harder and massivley more expensive. Again, why bother if there is still loads of oil lying in the ground on shore?

Is saudi has passed peak oil then we've all passed peak oil.

Despite the assurances from governments and oil company supporters that there is massive oil just waiting to be found there isn't. If there was someone would of bagged it and be making money from it, it's that simple. The oil left is either in extreme regions (hyper costs to extract.) or in small quantites. Geologically we have a pretty good understanding of the world by now. it's been mapped.

Once you expend more energy to recover a barrel of oil than you get back it becomes a futile exercise.

In the medium term (10-20 years) governements will have to abolish fuel tax and even subsidise oil nationally just to keep our economy and essential services going. Think, gard's, health, defence etc. It's at this point we are all on the arse end of civilisation.

n97 mini

Lantus wrote: »

One person mentioned peak oil. All of the evidence would suggest that we have recently passed peak and are now working our way down the decline side.

Citi recently reported that with new extraction technologies peak oil is quite some way off.

Thanks to shale gas, world prices are the cheapest in history. Not sure if shale oil will have quite so dramatic an effect, but prices should come down.

US oil production is now on the rise, entirely because of shale oil production, as conventional sources such as Alaska or California are structurally declining, and as Gulf of Mexico production is poised for a post-Macondo recovery.

thebman

gurramok wrote: »

You and your parents, anywhere Dub related?

I'm quoting Dublin prices, northside and southside, bar the odd station who have it cheaper. They have gone up maybe 3 or 4 cent in the last 2 weeks. Yes, they are probably cheaper outside Dublin, has always the case even in the good times.

Parents Offaly, me Maynooth.

gurramok

164.9 this morning, the petrol stations have been hiking it in the last few days.

Dannyboy83

A sign of the times, this is a new one by me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/17270733#FBM66044

Police warn fuel thieves they are 'risking their lives'

Dellony25

Rumour has it it's gonna hit the €2 mark by the end of the year!!

MonkieSocks

thebman wrote: »

Try using this: http://pumps.ie/

I sent that Link to my Missus......................she thought it was for Shoe's :rolleyes:

Sudsy86

I used to work in a petrol station, owner used to love when the price of petrol increased...Fill the tanks at 1.50 on wednesday...Price goes up on the thursday, boss arrives rubbing hands, wearing a smirk...He charges the new increased price even though he bought at the lower price...All profit for him...

These increases will come, I can see €2 a litre definately and I can assure you, you wont hear a complaint from the owners of the petrol stations...I'm sure alot of them are stockin up now while its cheap...

Local Petrol station closed for renevation...Added like 3 more tanks...

Rabidlamb

Our local garage are experiencing a drive off a day the girl was telling me this morning.
Someone last night for €69 worth, the CCTV isn't picking up the plates of the more obscured pumps, especially when there's another car the opposite side.

antoobrien

Sudsy86 wrote: »

I used to work in a petrol station, owner used to love when the price of petrol increased...Fill the tanks at 1.50 on wednesday...Price goes up on the thursday, boss arrives rubbing hands, wearing a smirk...He charges the new increased price even though he bought at the lower price.

I was in a garage in Dublin while they were filling the tanks (early morning), the prices went up 2c while i was in the forecourt (but fortunately the price at the pump hadn't changed).

woodoo

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

A sign of the times, this is a new one by me.

I hope this doesn't take off here. A few deaths of the thieves would be a good deterrent.

NakedNNettles

Possibility of it pushing past €2 by the middle of next year i'd say.

mistermouse

The Government are already looking at more Road Tax, I'm really amazed as to how quiet alot of roads have become.

Time for a real look at reducing Fuel and Road Tax and getting the country moving

But hey...

Looking good in Europe and the Croke Park Agreement are more important. It'll be interesting to see both them fail, which they will sooner than later, but by which time small industry and businesses will be long gone

99nsr125

NakedNNettles wrote: »

Possibility of it pushing past €2 by the middle of next year i'd say.

In regards fuel taxes we're now a few cents cheaper than the north
enough to keep people crossing the border and buying down south.
So you can expect a halt on the taxes and only future like for like
increases with the UK.

Underlying (Port landed) fuel price varies by 12c a litre for every $25
swing in Brent at an exchange rate of 1.3

Oil at $150 a barrel would translate into circa €1.90 a litre for petrol.

HOWEVER
Consumption worldwide is down by 2 Million barrels a day, the strategic
petroleum reserve is nearly full to the gills and gasoline consumption in
the states is nearly at a decade low.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/us-gasoline-consumption.jpg

Dollar printing is driving the price of US denominated commodities up.
The Euro is undervalued causing more pain as commodity prices increase.

The dollar price for oil will remain high and above it's medium term average
now and forever unless the new dollars are extinguished, which has never happened.

The Euro is 25% undervalued at a more realistic rate circa 1.56 petrol would cost €1.28 and that's the best we can hope for over the medium
term excluding another massive recession.

tails_naf

I took the ferry to france this week - and drove around like a headless chicken trying to fill up the car beforehand - as I'd always heard as bad as fuel prices are, they are worse in the rest of Europe.

Of course 20 miles from the ferry terminal on the other side I saw prices advertised as low as 1.40/l for diesel (Petrol was about 1.50 mind you).

Like another poster said, I drive to work each day and I'm now putting 100 euro into the car a week. It is crazy, especially for those who drive as part of making their living.

NIMAN

I have no doubt it will be at €2 inside the next year.

Have you noticed how the price of fuel only goes up these days. Many years ago when I first started driving, petrol prices could fluctuate up and down quite a bit. Now it only goes up, up, up.

I mean could anyone ever seen petrol at 140 again? No.

thebman

Really, really high!!

I've switched to a diesel. Might have considered an electric car if they could go further than down the shops once a week.

NIMAN

I would consider an electric car if they weren't so flipping expensive.

gurramok

As I said on the corresponding AH thread, the minimal norm in Dublin seems to be 1.64 for petrol. Well Tesco and their rivals have it at that level. And with tension over Iran rising, 1.70 seems ominous.

cgarrad

More bad news for petrol prices:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brent-126-israel-cabinet-votes-8-6-attack-iran?

Oil spikes sharply on report Israel has approved an attack on Iran

Looking at the tranquil sea that is the S&P one may be forgiven to ignore the rapid intraday surge in Brent which was up over $3 in a few hours, approaching $126 once again.

According to Israel's NRG, in a just completed cabinet vote, for the first time Netanyahu has gotten a majority (8 over 6) supporting an Iran attack. NRG also notes that at this point Israel has decided to not wait until the US elections in November before proceeding with sending crude to the stratosphere.

Solair

It looks like we might have to get used to sitting around sipping coffee while your car takes a full 20-30 mins at a rapid charge point...

NIMAN

I'd say we will be at 170 by end April, the way its increasing at the minute, irrespective of what happens in Iran.

cgarrad

Buy the new Kia Rio :rolleyes:

88mpg!

http://www.hypermiler.co.uk/green-car-news/kia-rio-crdi-steals-the-uk-mpg-crown-with-an-epic-88-mpg

Phil h 1

Will our brave government do anything about the cost of fuel ? Not likely they are getting the tax and the lower the price the lower the tax return. The high rate of tax on fuel is causing the price of every thing that travels on our roads and rails to sour. Between the road tax and tole charges and the cost of fuel It cost me over €70 a week just to go to work. It went to $147 a barrel last year and the price at the pumps only jumped a few cent.

NIMAN

That Kia Rio won't give you 88mpg. You'll be lucky to get 70mpg.

People don't drive like those tests allow the manufacturers to drive, maybe at a constant 40mph with no passengers or luggage.

But its a step in the right direction.

I just wonder if we will ever see this 300mpg car?
http://www.autocar.co.uk/www.autocar.co.uk/News/NewsArticle/AllCars/255101/

http://www.gmotors.co.uk/news/volkswagen-taking-300-mpg-xl1-into-limited-production/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/car-manufacturers/volkswagen/8293372/Volkswagen-XL1-review.html