Tornado Season 2012.

Iancar29

weisses wrote: »

Happy that i was able to sponsor you for a wee tiny bid with the video :D:D

Good for you you can go back ... sigh

Like i said before .. I have to settle with the Hungarian plains this year ... But in fairness some very impressive weather there every year. in fact ... going there every year cince 07 and never went back with at least two days of thunderstorms/supercells ... But nothing beats the US in extreme weather

CHeers man!

AH cool ! , its good to even just go somewhere with some storm potential though aint it? . LIke come on, im no where near expecting to see 5 tornadoes when i go to the states again , no tour is guaranteed to get an outbreak for their tour., but hopefully something like just better structure or better lightning stuff like that. As always a tornado will be the icing on the cake ! . Looking forward to it all none the less .

Just want to reorganise my blog now and that. Gonna draw a new photo and that...

Any ideas for the page please let us know.

Tornado9 , ye great idea pal i'll try get that working on it so!

weisses

For all the Tornado enthusiasts

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xj1781_witness-tornado-swarm-2011-documentary_shortfilms


Great footage ... great documentary

Iancar29

That actually sent shivers through me.. At some stages i think the Tv presenters should of been more VOCAL at times in alerting people how serious it is. THen i also liked to see how the lads wer trying to stop the traffic on the interstate... Hopefully they will learn from this , not to take any other storm by granted.
The scene @ 22.45 was the best i think...and the man on his phone to the left chilled as can be?....

Crazy documentry indeed.

Iancar29

Things are looking interesting for later. :cool:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS E/NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LWR OH/LWR TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE BC CST LIKELY TO AMPLIFY SE TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW THIS PERIOD...EXPECT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
GRT BASIN WILL ACCELERATE ENE TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS EVE...BEFORE
CONTINUING NE TO EVOLVE INTO A COMPACT CLOSED OVER THE UPR MS VLY
EARLY WED. POTENT VORT MAX WITH THE GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK AS IT CROSSES THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLNS TNGT.

AT THE SFC...LEE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY OVER NE
CO...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING NE TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS BY MIDNIGHT
...AND INTO SRN MN EARLY WED. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT ATTM TRAILS
SSW THROUGH CNTRL NM...AND AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE NOW ENTERING
FAR W TX. FARTHER E...CURRENT SFC DATA SHOW SHALLOW WARM FRONT
BEGINNING TO FORM FROM N CNTRL TX ESE TO NRN LA. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NE AS SERN MO AND THE LWR OH VLY BY
EARLY WED.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND
ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SRN PLNS NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND
THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
WED.

...SRN PLNS INTO OZARKS AND LWR OH/TN VLYS TODAY/TNGT...
EML ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHOULD KEEP
ENVIRONMENT CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER WRN PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG
MERGING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...SFC HEATING...AND 30-60 M HEIGHT FALLS
ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING UPR TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WDLY
SCTD TSTMS FROM NW TX NNEWD INTO WRN OK AND CNTRL KS BY EARLY EVE.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM A BIT LATER THIS EVE FARTHER E AND
NE...ALONG WRN FRINGE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS FROM
N CNTRL/NE TX THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF OK INTO PARTS OF AR AND
SRN/CNTRL MO. DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS WILL BE FOSTERED BY UPLIFT
ALONG WARM FRONT.

STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING DEEP
WIND FIELD WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG SUPERCELLS GIVEN 60-90 KT
SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR. INITIALLY...STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...WHERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP TNGT
THROUGH EARLY WED AS STORM COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASES OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO AR/SRN MO INVOF THE LLJ. LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WARM FRONT...WHERE AN ELONGATED...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY POSE A SIZABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG
WIND...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300-400 M2/S2...AND MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ENE
INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS EARLY WED AS THE LLJ JET DEVELOPS
RAPIDLY NEWD.

...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NEB AND KS THIS AFTN IN EXIT REGION
OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPR VORT. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE NE INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA BY EARLY EVE. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
LIKELY TO EXHIBIT SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND 75 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A POCKET OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVE.

Iancar29

Watch Issued...


SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING
AHEAD OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW...AND NEAR THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AFTER
DARK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

gbee

I think I heard that warning on ChaserTV.com a little while ago, as usual for me, as soon as things start to happen, feeds freeze ~ I had a had decent chance last year, but I'm on a lower service due to ecoms this year.

Iancar29

I cant seem to get the feeds to open on Tornadovideos.net ?... anyone having similar problems?

I dont think id have speed issues here, its only me online this evening with a 25mb connection... hmmmmmm

Iancar29

Must be something to do with me being on a Mac ....

Iancar29

Tried all that already
Its not a connection problem , its like a pop-up blocker is in place or something.. but on the mac i dont thing there is one?

Iancar29

woo , got a seperate link to some streams working from Severestudios. Its the iMap one that wont pop up the streams for me... guess this will have to do

Hammer Archer

Night-time tornado in Central Missouri less than an hour ago according to the NWS.

Hammer Archer

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Night-time tornado in Central Missouri less than an hour ago according to the NWS.

Lot of damage to buildings, including the local Walmart , they are directing people to local shelters.

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=3689

Iancar29

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 440 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 43...WW 44...WW 45...

DISCUSSION...SRN IL/FAR SE MO SQLN WITH EMBEDDED...LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT 50 KTS. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL
AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF SQLN ACROSS CNTRL KY...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F EXPECTED OVER WW AREA BY
12-15Z. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT PRESENCE
OF EXISTING LONG-LIVED STORMS...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WAA STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AHEAD OF SQLN SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.

Hammer Archer

Jake1 wrote: »

Lot of damage to buildings, including the local Walmart , they are directing people to local shelters.

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=3689

One person was killed in a trailer park although I see a lot of news sources saying it was a "possible" tornado.
From the photos of the damage it looked like a strong one. Some touchdowns in Kansas and Nebraska as well. One of the storms in Kansas didn't have a tornado warning on it when it damaged a town.

Iancar29

Hammer Archer

Another tornado on the ground, this time in Kentucky.

@stormchaser4850

Sad news.


Johnny Kelly ‏ @stormchaser4850 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Developing: State emergency officials revise tornado death toll down to 6 dead from 10 in Harrisburg, IL via @AP

M.T. Cranium

From the damage videos on CNN would say that Harrisburg IL (located west of Evansville IN and southeast of St Louis MO) was hit by an F4 or strong F3, luckily it was after midnight when it hit a shopping complex around a large Wal-mart store, only a few employees were on the site there and the rest of the shops (largely destroyed) were empty. The town's hospital has been damaged and can only service emergencies. Death toll in the area has been climbing as debris is examined, some housing areas were hit and death toll so far is about ten but could go higher. Other storms as reported in this thread hit Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky. The system is likely to lose intensity soon but could still drop tornados in eastern KY, WV and TN.

It has been the strongest low of the winter season in general, parts of central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin on the cold side of the low have seen 15-25 inches of snow. The low tracked northeast out of Colorado and turned due east overnight, heading across the "twin cities" region into north-central Wisconsin at present time. Temperatures on the warm side reached about 20 C today, but stayed near -5 C in parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas.

The storm is weakening and will split over the Great Lakes to form a coastal low south of Long Island tomorrow. This will force the band of snow to weaken over Ontario and then redevelop over New England overnight. Large areas of freezing rain have been reported from southern MN to central WI and MI and into the Toronto region in Ontario. More freezing rain will develop with the coastal storm in parts of s CT, Long Island and se NY, n NJ. To the north of that, 10-20 cms of snow likely. Remnants of the severe weather will sweep through Virginia and Maryland, DC overnight but the trend will be to heavy rain and non-severe winds gusting to 50 mph.

Another strong severe outbreak is expected in the Midwest and south central U.S. on Friday and Saturday.

Heres a link to RSOE, has some pictures of the damage done .

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_photo&edis_id=TO-20120229-34350-USA

Duiske

Just looking at news reports from the US this morning, and its not good. At least 12 dead overnight across the midwest.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0301/breaking4.html

Iancar29

Very sad news indeed.
From what looks to have been a EF- 4 , i think the death-toll could of been alot worse .
What i personally dont like reading was people saying " i didnt expect it to be that bad " .... IMO communities really have to get rid of this " ah its only another false alarm " stuff ....they should expect the worst but mainly PREPARE for the worst.
I also didnt like the forecast videos from accuweather on the severe weather. I dont think they gave good forecasts in terms of the potential severity of the situation .
Lets hope there isn't many repeats of this event throughout the season.

Friday is looking LIke another moderate risk with a 45% hatched area.

Iancar29

Heres a good video about the new Dual Polarisation Radars that are being used this year now . They can give much more confident tornado reports as they can spot a tornado much easier. One new tool on in the Weather Forecast Armoury .

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57388291/

EDIT : Tomorrow IMO should be going high risk for some areas by this evening. Some models showing abundant moisture return showing 3000 kjl cape values . Dps in the 60s too! Low level wind shear is high aswell. I expect to see a linear formation out of this storm again tomorrow.

MT , Whats ur thoughts on tomorrows setup?

amacachi

What do those probability charts mean? 45% chance of there being a tornado everywhere, every 100 square miles etc.?

Iancar29

amacachi wrote: »

What do those probability charts mean? 45% chance of there being a tornado everywhere, every 100 square miles etc.?

The 45% hatched area is for Severe thunderstorms.
Its 50 square miles i think...


heres the latest Forecast.

SPC AC 011730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A BELT OF VERY
STRONG SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ON THE SERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CROSSING THE OZARKS REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...DEEPENING WITH TIME INTO
A SUB-990 MB LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE ERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS NEWD
WITH TIME...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NEWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE.
MEANWHILE A STRONG/ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY...AND
SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD ALONG/JUST E
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING/INCREASING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEY REGION...NEAR AND
N OF A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT DEMARCATING THE NRN EDGE OF A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW.

WHILE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL POTENTIAL WITH
THE STRONGER/ROTATING CELLS -- WILL SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME AS THE
WARM FRONT RETREATS...CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NWD ADVANCE OF WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR WILL PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.

AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES S OF THE ONGOING/ELEVATED
STORMS...MIXED-LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE COMBINED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON A ZONE FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD
ACROSS KY AND TN INTO PARTS OF MS AND NRN AL...WHERE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ALONG
WITH SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.

WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BECOME A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND COMPLEX
LINE SEGMENTS...THREATS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES APPEARS EVIDENT...ACCOMPANYING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LARGE
HAIL. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK
AREA.

OVERNIGHT...SLOW/WEAK STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- SHIFTING EWD TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY
ACROSS...THE APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NC AND VICINITY...
THOUGH GENERALLY WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE RETREATING
SURFACE WARM FRONT COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NC AND VICINITY. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 03/01/2012


Anyone Else find it horrible trying to read with all in All Caps???? :mad:

tylercollins

Another link for tomorrows outbreak..

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/large-dangerous-tornado-outbreak-friday/62249

Iancar29

Today is looking serious, with some bigs cities in the firing line .

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

El Horseboxo

Iancar29 wrote: »

What i personally dont like reading was people saying " i didnt expect it to be that bad " .... IMO communities really have to get rid of this " ah its only another false alarm " stuff ....they should expect the worst but mainly PREPARE for the worst.

Having grown up in Kansas believe me it's very easy to fall into that attitude. You only hear of the actual tornadoes over here. What you don't hear are the constant warnings throughout the season. Not to mention the rare ones out of season. Some people have cellars that can be accessed from the house. Others are outside on the land. Some don't have any and neighborhoods have a communal one. If you have kids and pets it can be a bit of effort preparing them for the worst each time there's a warning. Especially in the middle of the night. It's a worthwhile effort but I understand why after multiple false warnings people will react slower. Or will just go to their kids rooms to comfort and be with them rather than move straight to protection. It's like the boy who cried wolf syndrome. I've probably moved to the cellar 12 times in a row without a tornado touching down in my county. And believe me you'd be tempted to ignore the 13th one at 3.30 in the afternoon when it looks calm and sunny out.

Iancar29

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Having grown up in Kansas believe me it's very easy to fall into that attitude. You only hear of the actual tornadoes over here. What you don't hear are the constant warnings throughout the season. Not to mention the rare ones out of season. Some people have cellars that can be accessed from the house. Others are outside on the land. Some don't have any and neighborhoods have a communal one. If you have kids and pets it can be a bit of effort preparing them for the worst each time there's a warning. Especially in the middle of the night. It's a worthwhile effort but I understand why after multiple false warnings people will react slower. Or will just go to their kids rooms to comfort and be with them rather than move straight to protection. It's like the boy who cried wolf syndrome. I've probably moved to the cellar 12 times in a row without a tornado touching down in my county. And believe me you'd be tempted to ignore the 13th one at 3.30 in the afternoon when it looks calm and sunny out.

Yeah and i totally agree , but with latest technology and like weather radios , its very easy to separate a warning to visually know if a tornado is forming or is on the ground. For example last year's Joplin and Tuscaloosa event , there was visual reports of the tornado being on the ground near 25 mins prior to them hitting the areas. Lets just hope this event is being made as serious as possible. The amount of people we come across in Kansas and Oklahoma that have never seen a Tornado was surprising to say the least.

Iancar29

It's Offical !

HIGH RISK JUST ANNOUNCED!!



Populated cities layered over rick area... NOT GOOD!


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
EXTREME SRN INDIANA...CENTRAL KY... AND NRN MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FOR
MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

--SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES--

...SYNOPSIS...
A 130 KT JET STREAK ALOFT NOW OVERSPREADING NW OK PER PROFILER PLOTS
WILL CONTINUE NEWD TO MO/IL/INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. A COUPLING OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA/DECREASING STATIC STABILITY AND DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM MO TO CENTRAL IL BY
MIDDAY...AND SRN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGION. A
RESERVOIR OF L0W-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR AND S OF I-40
WILL SURGE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL NEWD EXPANSION OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

...TN/OH VALLEY REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE INITIAL ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR STL /JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD OVER CENTRAL
IL/INDIANA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS. THE MORE SERIOUS SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO
MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY. A BROKEN BAND
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER E IN
THE UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND MOISTURE LIKEWISE
INCREASES...MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS FAR NE AS NRN
KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW DISCRETE WARM
SECTOR SUPERCELLS / AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE ALONG THE
FRONT/...ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE
AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN
THE MORE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR...OR NEAR AND S OF THE OH RIVER
FROM EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN. BOTH
PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE HIGH
RISK AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS SW OH
AND WRN WV BEFORE EXITING THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...MS/AL/GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN A LITTLE S OF
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...AND THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE WILL
DEVELOP NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK AND SURFACE CYCLONE. STILL...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN IN ONE OR MORE BANDS OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. RISKS WILL INCLUDE A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

Iancar29

It has begun! First tornado warning of the morning at 9:25am for areas in Northern Alabama. Today is going to be a very long day



EDIT: #Tornado Damage already being reported near Athens, AL !