Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Have we hit rock bottom?

Options
2

Comments

  • Options
    #32
    astrofool
    Registered Users Posts: 16,655 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Icepick wrote: »
    Not even close. Wait till NAMA starts to offload its portfolio.

    NAMA properties will either go as council housing, or be drip fed slowly onto the market to the level it doesn't effect anything.

    The government can sit on lots of empty property for many years, it doesn't have to sell.


  • Options
    #33
    toexpress
    Closed Accounts Posts: 853 ✭✭✭toexpress


    I want to know who are the two who voted that they think house prices will rise this year? I love an optimist


  • Options
    #34
    Icepick
    Registered Users Posts: 2,456 ✭✭✭Icepick


    astrofool wrote: »
    NAMA properties will either go as council housing, or be drip fed slowly onto the market to the level it doesn't effect anything.
    So people will move from Rent Allowance properties, which will flood the market.


  • Options
    #35
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,613 ✭✭✭Villa05


    astrofool wrote: »
    NAMA properties will either go as council housing, or be drip fed slowly onto the market to the level it doesn't effect anything.

    The government can sit on lots of empty property for many years, it doesn't have to sell.

    Irish Governments would have a history of stupid decision making, this would be yet another one. As they dither, do nothing and pay fools who caused the bust inflated salaries, the non NAMA backed banks hoover up all available cash through Allsop auctions.


  • Options
    #36
    toexpress
    Closed Accounts Posts: 853 ✭✭✭toexpress


    Icepick wrote: »
    So people will move from Rent Allowance properties, which will flood the market.

    I have been proposing the whole council housing in NAMA estates for quite some time. It would flood the market if it were done to quickly but over a period of time it would be fine and it would have many benefits to it aside from cutting the social welfare bill it would also mean that this stupid policy of integration would be brought to an end


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #37
    coup1917
    Closed Accounts Posts: 262 ✭✭coup1917


    Spiritofthekop wrote: »
    Anyone see this last night...

    House Prices: How low will yours go?
    Tune in Wednesday at 10pm on TV3


    Hilarious stuff....two fat cats with flashy watches and flashy cheap suits telling people to buy now and house prices will rise again soon.

    While the other guy sitting on the couch who is a financial expert started shaking his head furiously nearly laughing at this idiot...saying it will in his honest opinion be another 3/4 years before any real stability happens.

    How could TV3 have to CEO's from these two sham estate agencies with vested interest with personal property portfolios give out bad advice like that.

    i watched this today and it boiled my blood...
    the guy from sherry fitz was trying to hide a smirk as he spoke of the tremendous value in housing right now.....and how the market should bottom out later this year..!?!?!
    the auctioneer in studio was no better in saying the scarcity of certain types of property would see prices soon bottoming out and rising soon after.....

    TV3....You are an utter disgrace providing these leeches with an opportunity to scare people back into the property market like this...such bias opinion is absolute rubbish to listen to.
    Sadly it appears there is a concerted effort from irish tv and print media to prop up a falling property market for their own gains. from newstalk giving airtime to irishmortgages expert karl deeter to various rte interviews with daft or myhome directors, brendan oconnor etc. Yes we would all benefit from an improving economy but this will happen as a result of jobs, investment etc which are correctly managed....not from a dead end infatuation with property.


  • Options
    #38
    washman3
    Registered Users Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭washman3


    toexpress wrote: »
    I want to know who are the two who voted that they think house prices will rise this year? I love an optimist


    might be the 2 guys with the flashy watches and suits on the House Prices programme last night. or might even be Michael Noonan and Enda Kenny;)


  • Options
    #39
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    Prices won't rise this year, however they are getting relatively cheap. I feel I should buy in the next 2 years at most. Nobody is going to buy at the very bottom, on that actual day. Within a year is ok. It remains, of course, to get the mortgage.

    In another thread today someone posted interesting stats on immigration, and the natural increase in Irish numbers. Here it is

    Interestingly population is not falling. The birth rate is 75K a year, which is 53% higher than 1993, the death rate is 27.4K about 5K less per year than the early 90's ( and lower again as a percentage of the population).

    All this has meant that the natural increase in population has more than doubled from 20K a year in the early 90's to 47K a year now.

    Absent immigration, or net emigration.

    Net emigration is running at 30K a year, leaving us with a positive population growth of 13K a year. Low, but not negative.

    Immigration is historically still high - at 42K. Given that this is a recession that seems to be the base level. The base level for Irish emigration ( emigration in the boom) is about 15K.

    At a stabilised economy - say in 2013, or 2014 we would expect 40K immigrants still, and emigration to drop off to 17K. Add to natural increase in population we would be adding about 60K a year in population. ( At the height of the boom it was 100K a year, or more).

    Within these statistics is the reason why house prices will rise when credit flows.


  • Options
    #40
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Yahew wrote: »
    Within these statistics is the reason why house prices will rise when credit flows.

    Why do you expect babies to buy now?


  • Options
    #41
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    gurramok wrote: »
    Why do you expect babies to buy now?

    I expect them to buy eventually. It a 20-30 year market. Also if you read the piece I posted, a good percentage of the increase will be immigration.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #42
    astrofool
    Registered Users Posts: 16,655 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Irish Governments would have a history of stupid decision making, this would be yet another one. As they dither, do nothing and pay fools who caused the bust inflated salaries, the non NAMA backed banks hoover up all available cash through Allsop auctions.

    I think NAMA is stuck in that if it releases too much onto the market, then it pushes the entire market down, and thus, the other properties it has on it's books down as well, to the extent that the cash it gets in selling them may be less than the drop in the value of its assets.

    The only way around this is to manage the way it feeds those properties to the market in a very controlled manner that doesn't affect the value of it's total housing stock.

    This isn't a particularly stupid thing to do when you have a large amounts of assets, also NAMA is a long term approach, it couldn't care less if banks are hoovering up the money, as it will only increase the strength of the banking sector (something that NAMA was set up to do by taking their bad debts away).

    It is annoying if you're waiting for a price crash before buying. C'est la vie.


  • Options
    #43
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    NAMA will eventually become a state landbank. Within ten years, unfinished or empty estates which have not been released on general sale will be uninhabitable, leaving the only option to bulldoze them and hand the land over to the local council.

    In the next few years, local councils who are looking for state housing will get pretty much all of their housing stock from NAMA.


  • Options
    #44
    spockety
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    Is there a break down of how much of NAMA's asset portfolio is Commercial Vs Residential? For some reason I have it in my head that the vast bulk of the problem we have in terms of absolute Euro values is on the Commercial side.

    NAMA can hold on to all the ****ty apartments they like, it is not having any impact on the market. The biggest acceleration in price drops since the crash began was in 2011. If a controlled release of residential property by NAMA is some kind of attempt at market distortion, it is an utterly failed tactic.


  • Options
    #45
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Yahew wrote: »
    I expect them to buy eventually. It a 20-30 year market. Also if you read the piece I posted, a good percentage of the increase will be immigration.

    Clutching at straws there, waiting 30 yrs for these buyers to appear if there are jobs for them.
    Immigrants as per the last census(2006) largely do not buy, they rent hence your analysis that prices will rise on mass immigration is seriously flimsy and flawed.


  • Options
    #46
    Zamboni
    Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    seamus wrote: »
    NAMA will eventually become a state landbank. Within ten years, unfinished or empty estates which have not been released on general sale will be uninhabitable, leaving the only option to bulldoze them and hand the land over to the local council.

    I think this is an unspoken aim of NAMA.
    A lot of this property is already uninhabitable and a superb way of maintaining a price floor or increasing a price is the simple destruction of the excess supply.

    There are full estates that will get a bulldozer before they get council housing tenants.
    And it will all be done under the guise of job creation for the construciton of new social housing.


  • Options
    #47
    Zamboni
    Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    Yahew wrote: »
    I expect them to buy eventually. It a 20-30 year market. Also if you read the piece I posted, a good percentage of the increase will be immigration.

    Ireland is a second world country in the making regardless of populations stats.


  • Options
    #48
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    gurramok wrote: »
    Clutching at straws there, waiting 30 yrs for these buyers to appear if there are jobs for them.
    Immigrants as per the last census(2006) largely do not buy, they rent hence your analysis that prices will rise on mass immigration is seriously flimsy and flawed.

    Um, no I am not. Three things affect property

    1) Wages
    2) Supply vs Demand
    3) Credit

    1) and 3) are down for a while but will climb back up in a recovery. 2) will also tip towards demand after a time of no investment.

    It doesnt really matter if immigrants buy, or rent. Every rented house was bought by someone. The trend in population growth is upwards, and therefore over the long term, prices will trend back up. And mass emigration ( which you presumably mean rather than immigration) is no more certain over 30 years, than mass immigration was certain in 2006. This is the curse of extrapolation. It was the curse of 2006 and it is the curse of now.


  • Options
    #49
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    Zamboni wrote: »
    Ireland is a second world country in the making regardless of populations stats.

    Ireland is about 10th per capita in the world right now. A 2nd world country would take a much larger drop in GDP.

    However the pessimism is actually in my interests. Not sure I am going to live back in Ireland, however cheap property is definitely a deciding factor since I haven't bought yet, and the UK has a huge housing deficit, particularly in the South East. So yeah, continue to be glum.


  • Options
    #50
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Yahew wrote: »
    Um, no I am not. Three things affect property

    1) Wages
    2) Supply vs Demand
    3) Credit

    1) and 3) are down for a while but will climb back up in a recovery. 2) will also tip towards demand after a time of no investment.

    It doesnt really matter if immigrants buy, or rent. Every rented house was bought by someone. The trend in population growth is upwards, and therefore over the long term, prices will trend back up. And mass emigration ( which you presumably mean rather than immigration) is no more certain over 30 years, than mass immigration was certain in 2006. This is the curse of extrapolation. It was the curse of 2006 and it is the curse of now.

    No, I meant immigration. You need paying bodies in employment to buy a house. How on earth can you say the property market will recover in 30 years based on todays birth stats?! You or I cannot forecast what will happen then, its absurd.

    Regarding using demographic stats to back up your claim we are near the bottom is flimsy. The population growth is as you say a result of births over deaths with net migration falling, that will not support a short term future rise in prices assuming credit as you put it 'flows'. Its the ridiculous argument bank paid economists used to support a growth in prices pre 2006, its the 'rising demographics' was the term they used.

    The latest CSO employment stats have consistently shown a drop in employment numbers year in year out since 2007 with a shift towards part time employment. Together with all the other indicators that affect house prices, you will be waiting many many years for a rise in prices.


  • Options
    #51
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    gurramok wrote: »
    No, I meant immigration. You need paying bodies in employment to buy a house. How on earth can you say the property market will recover in 30 years based on todays birth stats?! You or I cannot forecast what will happen then, its absurd.


    The latest CSO employment stats have consistently shown a drop in employment numbers year in year out since 2007 with a shift towards part time employment. Together with all the other indicators that affect house prices, you will be waiting many many years for a rise in prices.

    To answer the last part first. We are talking 30 years for a mortgage, and getting some equity from a house.
    Regarding using demographic stats to back up your claim we are near the bottom is flimsy. The population growth is as you say a result of births over deaths with net migration falling, that will not support a short term future rise in prices assuming credit as you put it 'flows'. .

    No, you didnt read the stats. Immigration is running at 40K a year in, and 70K a year out. The former is the base level of immigration to Ireland, the latter is a high level of emigration from Ireland.

    When Ireland stabilises the former column will increase ( as if 40K come in a recession more will come when the recession ends), and the latter decrease. The natural population growth figure is +47k, so to have negative population growth we would need 47K negative net migration. However, even small postivie net immigration will be added to the 47K figure.
    Its the ridiculous argument bank paid economists used to support a growth in prices pre 2006, its the 'rising demographics' was the term they used

    Sure they did, and they had no evidence that immigration would continue in a bust.Now we do. It does. They assumed that the demographics was powering the boom when it was cheap credit. However that doesn't mean that demographic doesnt matter. It does.

    you know there comes a time when an over priced asset becomes under-priced. Even McWilliams is expecting a bottom next year. The pessimists at the bottom match the optimists at the top - everything that is happening now will continue to happen for 30 years.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #52
    zac8
    Registered Users Posts: 530 ✭✭✭zac8


    coup1917 wrote: »
    i watched this today and it boiled my blood...
    the guy from sherry fitz was trying to hide a smirk as he spoke of the tremendous value in housing right now.....and how the market should bottom out later this year..!?!?!

    I noticed that too. How pathetic he couldn't even keep a straight face. But in the interest of fairness he was from DNG not Sherry.


  • Options
    #53
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Yahew wrote: »
    To answer the last part first. We are talking 30 years for a mortgage, and getting some equity from a house.

    No, you didnt read the stats. Immigration is running at 40K a year in, and 70K a year out. The former is the base level of immigration to Ireland, the latter is a high level of emigration from Ireland.

    When Ireland stabilises the former column will increase ( as if 40K come in a recession more will come when the recession ends), and the latter decrease. The natural population growth figure is +47k, so to have negative population growth we would need 47K negative net migration. However, even small postivie net immigration will be added to the 47K figure.

    Sure they did, and they had no evidence that immigration would continue in a bust.Now we do. It does. They assumed that the demographics was powering the boom when it was cheap credit. However that doesn't mean that demographic doesnt matter. It does.

    you know there comes a time when an over priced asset becomes under-priced. Even McWilliams is expecting a bottom next year. The pessimists at the bottom match the optimists at the top - everything that is happening now will continue to happen for 30 years.

    You're entirely relying on immigration to support a future rise in house prices when the credit 'flows'.

    You forget that immigration is actually falling year upon year, it ain't constant year upon year so there is a strong possibility that immigration will continue to fall.

    Another assumption is that when Ireland stabilises you will see a rise in immigration, thats based on what?


  • Options
    #54
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    gurramok wrote: »
    You're entirely relying on immigration to support a future rise in house prices when the credit 'flows'.

    No I wasnt. Even if no positive or negative net migration the natural increase is 47K. I mentioned that a lot.

    You forget that immigration is actually falling year upon year,

    it isnt.
    it ain't constant year upon year so there is a strong possibility that immigration will continue to fall.

    It rose in 2011 from 2010, from 30K to 42K -its in the link.
    Another assumption is that when Ireland stabilises you will see a rise in immigration, thats based on what?

    I am assuming that immigrants are coming to work so more work = more immigrants.


  • Options
    #55
    true
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,325 ✭✭✭true


    zac8 wrote: »
    How pathetic he couldn't even keep a straight face. But in the interest of fairness he was from DNG not Sherry.

    I saw the smirk on his face as well. Firms like them ( DNG and Sherry ) have a lot to answer for as well, in that they help overhype and overinflate the bubble. Their offices sometimes practically lied in order for people to get mortgages / exceeded lending criteria. Many a person in negative equity wish now they never took their advice anyway. They were supposed to be property experty - and advertised themselves as " property advisers" - and their advice was very wrong for their clients, but they still got the big commission. Worse than second hand car salespeople.


  • Options
    #56
    Zamboni
    Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    Yahew wrote: »
    Um, no I am not. Three things affect property

    1) Wages
    2) Supply vs Demand
    3) Credit

    1) and 3) are down for a while but will climb back up in a recovery.
    2) will also tip towards demand after a time of no investment.


    What evidence is there to suggest the part in bold?


  • Options
    #57
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    Zamboni wrote: »
    What evidence is there to suggest the part in bold?

    The argument is tautological.


  • Options
    #58
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Yahew wrote: »
    No I wasnt. Even if no positive or negative net migration the natural increase is 47K. I mentioned that a lot.

    Thats in a one year period. The Irish adult population for potential buyers is falling. The Irish birth rate collapsed from 1980(74,000) up to around year 2000.(55,000)
    http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birthsdeathsandmarriages/numberofbirthsdeathsandmarriages/

    About 20,000 fewer Irish buyers existing plus god knows how many under 25's emigrate as they get older. Together with immigrants who largely do not buy and the oversupply of housing, the natural increase in the population does not support a rise in house prices for the short term.
    Yahew wrote: »
    it isnt.

    It rose in 2011 from 2010, from 30K to 42K -its in the link.

    Its preliminary. A breakdown of that 12k shows that 4k were Irish, 3k from Eu12 and 3k were from rest of world. The latter is actually been clamped down due to visa restrictions so I suspect it will fall in the next report. The first group I wonder do they have jobs as their compatriots are emigrating alot.
    Yahew wrote: »
    I am assuming that immigrants are coming to work so more work = more immigrants.

    Huh? Stabilises = more work? Shouldn't you mean growth = more work?


  • Options
    #59
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    gurramok wrote: »
    Thats in a one year period. The Irish adult population for potential buyers is falling. The Irish birth rate collapsed from 1980(74,000) up to around year 2000.(55,000)
    http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birthsdeathsandmarriages/numberofbirthsdeathsandmarriages/

    About 20,000 fewer Irish buyers existing plus god knows how many under 25's emigrate as they get older. Together with immigrants who largely do not buy and the oversupply of housing, the natural increase in the population does not support a rise in house prices for the short term.

    But housing is an asset bought for the long term.

    Its preliminary. A breakdown of that 12k shows that 4k were Irish, 3k from Eu12 and 3k were from rest of world. The latter is actually been clamped down due to visa restrictions so I suspect it will fall in the next report. The first group I wonder do they have jobs as their compatriots are emigrating alot.

    We'll see.

    Huh? Stabilises = more work? Shouldn't you mean growth = more work?

    Well immigration has not fallen as fast as expected within a recession. By stabilisation I mean low growth ( 1% or less) as you never get 0%.


  • Options
    #60
    Zamboni
    Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    Yahew wrote: »
    The argument is tautological.

    BS

    I am directly asking you to back up your quote.
    Yahew wrote: »
    Three things affect property

    1) Wages
    2) Supply vs Demand
    3) Credit

    1) and 3) are down for a while but will climb back up in a recovery.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #61
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    A recovery by definition means that wages will recover and credit ease. One, or both. Rain is wet.


Advertisement