And the human is ???

bonniebede

Looking at the way some of the discussions develop here a recurring theme is often what we think human beings basically are, and how they will react. As this is relevant to how one preps or makes survival plans, perhaps we could discuss it on the thread, 'cause it does rather swamp other threads sometimes.

So what do you think, are basically good/bad/bit of both/ one more than the other?
What difference does your view make to your prepping?
What difference do you think it should make?
And so on....

And play nice:)

bonniebede

And for fun

http://www.iterated-prisoners-dilemma.net/

a more serious reflection

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20708630

ShadowFox

In my job like others here Im sure I deal with the worst side of a lot of people. I dont know if its just me that sees it this way but these days people seem to tie themselves to time too much and they panic if they are delayed even a little bit. We all like to get home as quick as we can after a long day but why stress yourself if there are traffic or public transport delays.

When it comes to the criminal element as everyone can see house break ins muggings general theft is gone way up in the last 18 months and what do our wonderful government do ? Close down Templemore for 3 years. I heard that over 100 Guards retired on the 1/1/12 around the country and it will be 4 years before they are replaced which is crazy

Last winter Dublin nearly came to a stand still because of snow and ice when compared to most other countries it was a mild winter Just think what will happen if we ever get -20 cold weather there will be riots on the streets

krissovo

Survival is not only about having the gear and having cupboards stocked with food its about adapting to your current situation and utilizing whats available to you to complete your mission(s). Your mission could be to find your way home after getting lost, finding food and water for the day ahead, shelter etc.

The trouble happens when you have a life threatening mission to you or your family in a alien situation and you are not able to complete it as you lack the tools, knowledge or even just not able to rationally think the solution through. This is when people start to behave erratically and stupid outcomes are the result.

It is impossible to predict who and when could be a challenge in these situations as we all have different trigger points and even we don't truly know ourselves what triggers could turn us into dangerous people. A mild mannered confident person can easily turn into a desperate lunatic and could become a threat, likewise a petty thief who likes having a fight in the pub every Saturday night could well become a local hero in a SHTF situation.

Short answer - Trust no one, not even yourself!

Ok so it sounds like I am saying to everyone to become a hermit, again this is not desirable as we are in effect social creatures and plus teamwork can acts as a multiplier so you can achieve much more as a effective team. The reverse is also true, an infective team will not be any use as you would be wasting energy with poor gains.

So how do we manage this? Personally I weigh the risks and potential benefits before I would make any decisions about other people.

I will dig through some posts that have come up recent and try and explain my though process based on some example topics that have been raised.

krissovo

This cropped up on a recent thread, the general consensus is that community spirit has declined especially in the Celtic tiger era estates.

I lived for a few years in a typical modern soulless estate but I made a couple of plans of what I would do. DISCLAIMER - This is theory based on some of my experiences and as has not been tested in a SHTF but elements are being implemented to combat a recent increase in crime on that very same estate.

Personal Prep:
1 - Its hard to prep on an estate so hide any food, wood or water storage as best you can. Use attics for food, bury water buts, store wood fuel behind the garden shed etc.
2 - Careless talk costs lives, the advice on the internet is to fully involve your community which I think is poor advice. Look after your self first and always act the "greyman" but have good plans that you can share in the event of a incident.

Pre - Planning
1, Area Defensive Plan - Take slow walks around your estate, identify the entrances to and from the estate. Plan how you could seal the estate to a single access for cars and maybe a couple of walking routes. Plan routes that foot patrols could make. Plan how you break in to all houses especially your own!

2, Identify and profile your community - Who are the gobshoites? Who is respected? Who has the ear of the majority? Are there any guards, military, Doctors/vets or professionals? Who looks and acts weak that people take pity on? Anyone who appears to posses natural leadership skills, who would you follow?

While you maybe prepped you may not posses the qualities to lead the estate. I may have the knowledge but my plans always were to "recruit" a leader so I could remain under the radar plus my leadership style is not the best for gelling together a community.

Action on SHTF
1, Recruit the "leader" - Go to the person who you identified as the best candidate and discuss with them the situation. Try to make them feel like they have come up with the idea of them being the leader and drip feed them your defensive plan. If they do not accept then move to number 2 and so on.

Note: People have egos particularly natural leaders , a bit of gentle massaging to this ego goes a long way. Guards/military, doctors etc have a sense of duty and are respected. Again gentle massaging of this sense of duty is handy. Weak people or people who appear vulnerable could be used to recruit.

2, Defensive Plan implementation - Prepare for the worst however ensure your plan has levels of escalation that can reflect the situation on the ground. A riot in your next city does not mean you lock down the estate, however a increase in break ins would justify a roving patrol at irregular times at night or even just a neighborhood watch. If the situation significantly declines then 24x7 patrols and the next level is to lock down the estate once full blown SHTF happens.

Post SHTF

Share with the leader or if you feel comfortable you can show ways of cooking or heating their homes. Drip feed information that could keep them alive and if they ask how you know all this pull out a (NEW) copy of the SAS survival manual or similar and say you got it Christmas two years ago and it seams to work for you and your home.

This may buy you a week or two at the most of some element of security if the community has come together as a team, once the situation gets desperate with lack of food or some medical issues are evident then you need your own defenses as alliances will become frail. After a couple of weeks you need to "act" as desperate as your neighbors even if you have enough food to feed all of them a week or more. It could mean you should "half" starve yourself at the same time and not only includes food but heat and light.

johngalway

People change depending on the situation. In a SHTF situation I'd not turn my back on anyone, and I do mean anyone. In a non-SHTF situation there are a few ways to really see what a person is like, they usually involve money, love, or law.

Anyone is capable of anything in my experience. To merge the statements of two former (I think this is who said them) US Presidents:

"Trust, but always carry a big stick".

And sleep with one eye open

Doc Ruby

krissovo wrote: »

This may buy you a week or two at the most of some element of security if the community has come together as a team, once the situation gets desperate with lack of food or some medical issues are evident then you need your own defenses as alliances will become frail. After a couple of weeks you need to "act" as desperate as your neighbors even if you have enough food to feed all of them a week or more. It could mean you should "half" starve yourself at the same time and not only includes food but heat and light.

Excellent ideas Kriss, I might add that a stabilising influence is organising a routine of some sort.

People are used to having things to do at particular times during their day, going to work, having lunch and so on, so replacing that with something else, even if its busywork, digging up gardens to make allotments, knocking over walls, even a daily morning meeting, can help get their world turned back the right way up for a while anyway.

You're dealing with shock and mental trauma first, then actual hunger and other issues later.

Grizzly 45

Anyone is capable of anything in my experience. To merge the statements of two former (I think this is who said them) US Presidents:

"Trust, but always carry a big stick".

"Tread lightly and carry a big stick" Theodore "Teddy" Rooseveldt .

In reference to his time as NYC police comissioner,and dealing with corrupt politicans and whatnot that infested NYC.

Always sleep with one eye open. Never take anything for granted. Your best friends might just be your enemies.”
― Sara Shepard, The Lying Game

Grizzly 45

grapeape wrote: »

In my job like others here Im sure I deal with the worst side of a lot of people. I dont know if its just me that sees it this way but these days people seem to tie themselves to time too much and they panic if they are delayed even a little bit

.

Like it or not,Time has become a precious commodity to us all in civillised life..Despite all our gadgets to to make more "time" for ourselves in labour saving devices,we seem to have less time to do anything,or spend more time working to pay for all these devices.So anyone depriving us of our time is in a way costing us either money or time when we could be doing somthing like being on our way quickly to meet somone else whose "time is short."Or "Time is money" or getting home for "quality time" with our family.
We are now just a chronologically driven civilisation.Moreso now,because of the money factor involved.

When it comes to the criminal element as everyone can see house break ins muggings general theft is gone way up in the last 18 months and what do our wonderful government do ? Close down Templemore for 3 years. I heard that over 100 Guards retired on the 1/1/12 around the country and it will be 4 years before they are replaced which is crazy

TBH,

From a retired Garda friend he finished last year after 25 years at it....AGS has a big problem of missing "middle management"IE inspectors and simmilar who is the knowledge base for command and control of crime fighting.IE the famous murder squad of the 1980s/90s.
Its top heavy with admin and top brass,and a huge force of manpower being used inefficently without the skillset that is needed in certain cases.
IE you might have a seargent in charge of a murder investigation,where anywhere else it is somthing handled by a rank no less than a lieutenant[whatever the eqv is here?],prefably an inspector.
Most of the middle level is leaving because they are getting to retireable age,feel that its better to quit now with their pensions mostly intact,and thru basically a disappointment in the way they are being treated from the top brass administration or the lack of promotion possibilities,and as usual the good old game of Irish politics and "pull" doesnt help.:(
Manpower isnt the problem,its leadership and skills to deploy the people properly that is going,and its affecting the force really badly.
Being a gaurd,like a schoolteacher,doctor,nurse,civil servent etc was a P&P job,[proper and pensionable] in Ireland of yore.Now the fact is coming home you are not irreplacable anymore,and everyone has to be worth their money,and that it will be the little guys who will get it first in the cuts.So is it better to quit while the going is good?Or stay and possibly lose out everything?

Last winter Dublin nearly came to a stand still because of snow and ice when compared to most other countries it was a mild winter Just think what will happen if we ever get -20 cold weather there will be riots on the streets

In minus 20 degrees??We wouldnt riot,we'd all be too cold to actually do that!:D.But point taken!
However rioting doesnt seem to be a big part of the Irish psyche..We seem to suffer compared to our European and English neighbours a serious lack of moral outrage!We seem to docily accept things that would get a Frenchman out building barricades on a Parisian street and sharpening the guilitone or blocking all routes into Paris!!
But us its "Ah shure thats the way it is".."No sense in making a fuss!What would the neighbours think?Violence doesnt get anywhere,we dont want to be like dem foreginers!"Yet we sit and moan,moan and moan to each other in the pub,at home or on Joe fluffy about the state of the nation,but thats as far as it goes ..Ever!
The Irish rebel is ingrained in our folklore and beaten into us in history class,with the romantic idea of martrydom being the best way of achiveing your immortality in Ireland??I dont understand this??
Is this some sort of cross over of the Catholic faith into the Irish body politic?
Yet the rebellious Irish spirt seems to be gone.] It's one thing I cant get my head around our passivity to injustices inflicted on us by our own?And worse by organisations we trusted to govern and guide us as a people.
Maybe one of you can explain this to me?

johngalway

Grizzly 45 wrote: »

"Trust, but always carry a big stick".

"Tread lightly and carry a big stick" Theodore "Teddy" Rooseveldt .

In reference to his time as NYC police comissioner,and dealing with corrupt politicans and whatnot that infested NYC.

Always sleep with one eye open. Never take anything for granted. Your best friends might just be your enemies.”
― Sara Shepard, The Lying Game

The other part was Reagans "Trust, but verify" while dealing with the Soviets.

eth0

grapeape wrote: »

Just think what will happen if we ever get -20 cold weather there will be riots on the streets

There will only be indoor riots at -20. Orderly ones at that, everyone will have to buy tickets for it and a strict time limit set with health & safety regulations in place. When its over a man will stand up and say "You have rioted, now go home and tomorrow you'll feel better about the austerity & taxes you'll have to put up with"

Grizzly 45

From another survival group ..Seeing that we touched and tossed this around abit already here..:D


Italics[mine] are replies to the points.
Enjoy!



Most people are probably going to be much better off after a society crushing event to be located away from highly densely populated centers. Unfortunately the majority of everyone lives in suburbia or in urban areas, and the problems of total or near breakdown of civilization are usually magnified there. Even in rural areas the anguish of collapse will be apparent and a problem.

This is the shelter in place plan, but you should have an evac plan also, following the rule of 3 - know 3 ways out.

> The prepper and survival driven person needs solutions to be able to better handle the fact that people are going to be coming for what they have in urban, suburban, and rural areas. Some people will turn their homes into forts, and battle to the end before anyone takes what they have saved up.

The average house make a lousy fort in about every respect. To try and do what you can to fortify you home, here is the treatise:
http://www.joelskousen.com/Secure/secure.html
The Secure Home by Joel Skousen (intellectual survivalist)
Consider how you would attack your own home.

> For these people there are plenty of survival military manuals and training that go into great detail how to defend your home from booby trapping everything to every weapon you can imagine. For the person that has stored up and wants to survive as long as possible there are some less drastic measures (solutions). It should be remembered though, everyone should have some form of reliable self defense.

Notice our outline here, defense is #6 - first get some stuff saved up, then you need to defend it. A good defense plan is complex, and layered.

> First and foremost what you have is your LIFELINE, it may be all that you have to work with for an indefinite amount of time. Sharing with those who are unprepared could cost you your chance of making it. You cannot feed everyone. There are precautions you can take beforehand to make your stocks safer. There are viable solutions that can be taken to try to avoid dangerous confrontations. There are things you can do to bypass hurt feelings with those you share a community with so as not to come back to haunt you if there is a recovery of the society.

10% is a nice historically supported LIMIT to charity. Remember Triage in your charity. More on this, see Patriots.

> Pre-planning and securing food and supplies.
>
> - Find good hiding places for everything. A storm cellar is wonderful because it is buried, can be concealed, a place for personal safety, and it is cool and if properly insulted frost free for supplies. If moisture is a problem, keeping everything in plastic air tight boxes should solve this. Other hiding places include in the attic under insulation, inside walls, crawlspaces, anywhere you can hide your supplies, as you know your house best.

Consider caching also. Rubbermaid tubs seem to hold up against mice better than others. Remember in your hiding places - what would burn if the house did.

> - Many people will stack food and other items in plain view of all to see, a simple window covering in a store room will not let people see in to what you have.

All your windows should have a covering to prevent any vision, but still let light in and show shadows in front of the window.

> - If you can afford it, get enough plywood and screws for every window in the house. After a disaster your windows are vulnerabilities that can be shot out or broken for many reasons. Without windows you are at the mercy of the weather elements, harmful insects and animals, people having an easier time of getting in, and you become more visible.

And 2x4s, and 2x6s, and 1-3" granite gravel, and sand bags, and barb wire, etc.

> - Don't let anyone you don't trust know what you are doing beforehand. Find reliable people you can count on and add them to your group. Safety in numbers.

Easier said than done, but yes.

> Some suggestions for helping to keep people away after a cataclysm.
>
> - On top of not being visible to others, keep your home as void of light during the nighttime as possible. Try to keep your home as blending in with the darkness as you can. People can see the dimmest light for miles.

Remember "black outs" of WWII - I like this foiled bubble wrap insulation to put over windows at night, totally blocks night.

> - Be aware of the smell of food. Aromas of cooking food can be smelled for long distances, especially meats.

Doesn't stop with that, generators are loud, fire is visible at night and by infrared big time, smoke can be seen for miles away during the day. THINK.

> - Bury all your trash. This keeps disease down, and does not let desperate people know you have been eating food that there is probably more of.

And sanitation issues, though some smell in some places might actually help keep people away.

> - Make the outside of your place look more rundown and less appealing. Like during regular times the homes that look like they have nothing, are less likely to be ransacked. It doesn't take much to quickly make a house look worse than it actually is.

Maybe, depends on whether you have a cooperative neighborhood defensive perimeter established, etc.

> - Avoid movements and noise. Where there are people there is food, and things that others need.
>
> - A clever tactic that can work to keep others away is to spray paint in big red letters "QUARANTINED" across your home, even add "DANGER VERY SICK PEOPLE". Most people don't want to add to their misery being deathly sick or eating food contaminated by someone with a deadly disease.

Learn what FEMA does for real, so it doesn't look fake.
http://fierceandnerdy.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/nola-FEMA-X-mark.jpg
They use orange not red, and make an X on the front door (or please correct me)



> When people come knocking at your door,

STOP right there, a person making it TO your front door is a defensive failure in the first place.

> You can of course confront people with force, but doing this can send out a message you have something well worth fighting for and end up in a fierce battle being outgunned. It may be the only way, but there can be alternatives to this.

I would suggest not being the messenger who becomes the hostage or the victim. Use a 2 way radio or intercom, such that they can't see you, but you can see them.

> - Try never to allow people in your home, but if it happens, have clutter and unkempt surroundings to keep their focus on. Like the outside of your home, look like you have nothing.

Don't allow people in your home if you can possibly avoid it, and escort them for every second they are.

Physically look shabby and depressed like you have nothing.

Don't look out of place, yes.

> - Admit to nothing you have stored, even like saying the mistake of saying you ONLY have 2 weeks of food. People will want you to share even this with them.

BUT, there is a caveat to this described in the book ONE SECOND AFTER, where it would be a bad idea to lie about this.

> - Discussion about what you have, should include key words like; meager, little, very limited, bare, empty, sparse, etc.
> - If you just have to give away some food, make it seem like it's a huge sacrifice to do so. Less likely for someone to think you have much more.
> - Give away food first to those with children as this makes you appear like you are doing what you can.

In Patriots, you give A LITTLE away as send them on their way, away.

> - Be ready for any excuse for someone to try to get into your home to see what you have.

BS, tear jerkers, and likely propositions including sexual.

> - Never talk to a large crowd of people, mob mentality rules and you will find this out.

You should not, but if you must for some reason, maybe as a spy... blend.

> - Have only one person be the spokesperson for your group. One person is less likely to make a mistake than several that could let out what you have.

You need a commanding officer for defense.

> - Watch people's eyes closely when talking to them, beware of the "sizing it up" wandering eyes. Never look away. Watch the body language.

I trust most people know about eye contact with rabid animals. I like the very American idea that if you can see the whites of their eyes, it's time to shoot (had to throw that in). Again, seriously, don't get that close, throw over a cheap 2 way radio, or maybe have a remote controlled car take it over the their leader.

> - Remain calm and say what you mean and don't change your mind, this doesn't open up for all sorts of manipulation of people trying to get you to feed everyone till you have nothing.

Well, some flexibility is wise, but stick to your guns is good advice, do NOT be weak or wishy washy.

> - Don't let others make you feel bad about sitting on your hoard while they suffer.

I sure hope this guilt trip attempt would never work on someone here. These situations are survival and triage.

> Convince them that you wish you had food to feed everyone but you don't. Even make it believable that you are worse off then those coming to your door. Sickness is again something to play on, people are ill inside.

Not the way I would go with this, as this is a position of weakness they are probably unlikely to believe. Maybe there is a situation this is a last resort where you are clearly out gunned, but I would not do this first.

> - Get a person's thought sidetracked what you "might" have, to what the person or people are going to do, ask them about their plans for the future.

What is this, advanced negotiation skills now? Watch the movie "The Negotiator"

> - Without discriminating, the more overweight someone is the more desperate they are going to be to eat, the more likely that they are not going to take no for an answer. The more likely they are going to hound you or do something drastic to get any food that may be around.

Maybe, each person is different. They are also the last to die of starvation, but will be very grumpy as they are in catosis - or whatever you call it when your body is living off fat stores.

> - To try to predict how people will react, picture yourself in their situation and ask yourself what you would do.

Actually, most people don't think like survivalists, so not so sure this is true.

> This gives you a foundation to think about and plan for if and when people come to your door wanting what you might have.

Again, allowing them to get to your door is a failure in a layered defense in the first place.

> - Have a collection of native plants, such as dandelions, that are eatable and discuss with your neighbors that this is what you have been living on and they can also find this around the city. This should curb their interest that you have much or any stored up food for them.

Have SEEDS, but realize people are going to steal your crops before it's ripe unless you guard it. What you should so is some more creative use of every tub you can get being turned into growing pots, and keep them close in.

> This is a set of ideas that can help you keep a hold of what you have to survive, those things that you have saved up for and sacrificed for to be prepared. It must be realized by most of us that we all have a degree of warmth and compassion for those hungry and desperate, it is called humanity. The problem with this is that you cannot support and keep everyone alive and thriving unless you are a multimillionaire and have all sorts of stored food and supplies and other means of manufacturing food and needs.

Human beings get used to things, so compassion and charity will die off as people get numb to the horrors.

Show me a multimillionaire who IS stockpiling for all around.

> You can attempt to feed and supply everyone that you can, and end up with nothing, and in the same sinking boat as everyone else.

Right, you want to, mathematically, control the denominator. 12 months supply / 2 = 6 months. 12 months supply / 12 - 1 month. Simple math, ugly cold simple math.

>You also can decide to keep what you have prepared for and try to survive for your family's and group's sake, and attempt to keep what you have by using these methods or other inventive and creative ways of avoiding "giving or having the shirt taken off your back".

If you want to give the shirt off YOUR back, fine, but DO NOT give the shirt off someone else's back.