beef price tracker

mf240

You reckon theyll be scarce in oct.

There will denfinately be a shortfall at some stage in the spring as the cattle that would of been killed as bulls will be stored as bullocks.

Once they get scarce there will be nothing about specs and weights.

simx

quoted cows today p+3 2.85 Os 2.90 Rs 3.10

Farmer Pudsey

mf240 wrote: »

You reckon theyll be scarce in oct.

There will denfinately be a shortfall at some stage in the spring as the cattle that would of been killed as bulls will be stored as bullocks.

Once they get scarce there will be nothing about specs and weights.

At present we are 95K above last years kill it is still june. We are killing 4K+/week still. that 25K in six weeks after that all bets are off

severeoversteer

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

At present we are 95K above last years kill it is still june. We are killing 4K+/week still. that 25K in six weeks after that all bets are off

if you take a drive around my area the amount of fat cattle in fields is the most I have ever seen,

I cannot see the factories giving a half reasonable price until at least next spring

I also see lads buying in calves purely because they need to restock after selling and they have lost soo much money they see calves as a cheap way of buying back in the numbers

most suckler farmers I buy off aren't feeding any creep this year and have culled cows and not replaced

there is a bit of a way to go yet before we see any shortages



when englands price is on the way down ours is likely to drop even further too

Muckit

Thank God the majority of us live to farm and not farm to live

Farmer Pudsey

severeoversteer wrote: »

if you take a drive around my area the amount of fat cattle in fields is the most I have ever seen,

I cannot see the factories giving a half reasonable price until at least next spring

I also see lads buying in calves purely because they need to restock after selling and they have lost soo much money they see calves as a cheap way of buying back in the numbers

most suckler farmers I buy off aren't feeding any creep this year and have culled cows and not replaced

there is a bit of a way to go yet before we see any shortages



when englands price is on the way down ours is likely to drop even further too

You may have a point in there being a lot of cattle with finish around at present. There are always variables. On one hand we know that there are 100k extra cattle in the to be finished group for 2014. We know that the kill is virtually 100K ahead of this time last year. We know the kill is running nearly 4K extra week on week.

There is a possibilty that easier finished cattle may come into play at year end especially 2013 born heifers or smaller type bullocks that may have a good level of finish this autumn. However on the other hand the present kill is unsustainable. If it averaged half that for rest of year that is 50K cattle or thereabouts so we would need to kill 150K+ cattle over and above last year.

On the other hand while the kill is dropping slowly (1500 cattle in 6 weeks) and the gap with last years figures is closing rapidly down from over 6k in late May to 3500 the week before last.

The word is trickling out that cattle are not as freely available as 2-3 weeks ago. This time last year the kill was rising it is dropping at present.

larrymiller

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

You may have a point in there being a lot of cattle with finish around at present. There are always variables. On one hand we know that there are 100k extra cattle in the to be finished group for 2014. We know that the kill is virtually 100K ahead of this time last year. We know the kill is running nearly 4K extra week on week.

There is a possibilty that easier finished cattle may come into play at year end especially 2013 born heifers or smaller type bullocks that may have a good level of finish this autumn. However on the other hand the present kill is unsustainable. If it averaged half that for rest of year that is 50K cattle or thereabouts so we would need to kill 150K+ cattle over and above last year.

On the other hand while the kill is dropping slowly (1500 cattle in 6 weeks) and the gap with last years figures is closing rapidly down from over 6k in late May to 3500 the week before last.

The word is trickling out that cattle are not as freely available as 2-3 weeks ago. This time last year the kill was rising it is dropping at present.

So why are we hearing be prepared for less than 3.50 etc.
And I hear from home and on here than lads are been advised to sell now as price is gonna drop

ellewood

larrymiller wrote: »

So why are we hearing be prepared for less than 3.50 etc.
And I hear from home and on here than lads are been advised to sell now as price is gonna drop

Do factories always drop prices before they see a shortage coming tho..
No surer way to get lad to sell than drop prices

severeoversteer

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

You may have a point in there being a lot of cattle with finish around at present. There are always variables. On one hand we know that there are 100k extra cattle in the to be finished group for 2014. We know that the kill is virtually 100K ahead of this time last year. We know the kill is running nearly 4K extra week on week.

There is a possibilty that easier finished cattle may come into play at year end especially 2013 born heifers or smaller type bullocks that may have a good level of finish this autumn. However on the other hand the present kill is unsustainable. If it averaged half that for rest of year that is 50K cattle or thereabouts so we would need to kill 150K+ cattle over and above last year.

On the other hand while the kill is dropping slowly (1500 cattle in 6 weeks) and the gap with last years figures is closing rapidly down from over 6k in late May to 3500 the week before last.

The word is trickling out that cattle are not as freely available as 2-3 weeks ago. This time last year the kill was rising it is dropping at present.

I have some chx bullocks being killed tomorrow and I weighed them at lunchtime today

they are not 30 months old until November but most of them are over 825kg

I have been holding onto them since spring thinking cattle would have got scarce by june july but the economics of keeping them any longer does not pay so they have to go and I think with the good silage last winter and good backend last year it means that there are a lot of spring 2012 cattle coming fit from now on

blue5000

severeoversteer wrote: »

I have some chx bullocks being killed tomorrow and I weighed them at lunchtime today

they are not 30 months old until November but most of them are over 825kg

I have been holding onto them since spring thinking cattle would have got scarce by june july but the economics of keeping them any longer does not pay so they have to go and I think with the good silage last winter and good backend last year it means that there are a lot of spring 2012 cattle coming fit from now on

I wonder are there really that many of these left on farms? The bull kill has been fairly big over the last 12 months. Most of these cattle were born Jan-Mar so they only have 3 months max before they hit 30 months.

Farmer Pudsey

I am in a different situtation I have FR and FRX bullocks so at best 25% might make QA, most are only hitting FS3 now so they have a bit to go. I also have AA heifers(the slow growing type) that are mostly FS3. The FR can carry 8+ weeks the heifers 4-6 weeks.

heifers will not go over age by then. Even if the Fr go over age because so few will get QA I am only gambling 13ishc/kg if the dynamics are as I think I could make that up in a week.

Larry as cattle supply changes the factory's propganda lads get into action. They have normal supply dynamics in there favour. Look at it this way if they can drop the price by 30c/kg as the supply dynamic changes it will take 3+ weeks normally for price to recover that 30c/kg

Muckit

Could there be light at the end of the tunnel?

http://m.rte.ie/news/touch/2014/0626/626786-ireland-us-beef/

severeoversteer

blue5000 wrote: »

I wonder are there really that many of these left on farms? The bull kill has been fairly big over the last 12 months. Most of these cattle were born Jan-Mar so they only have 3 months max before they hit 30 months.

around my area its a big suckler area with all charolais stock
the finishers around here are advocates of keeping bullocks till 30 months old at least killing big weights

I pass by one farm everyday and they keep charolais till 4 year old and they are massive easily over a tonne its some sight to see

larrymiller

severeoversteer wrote: »

around my area its a big suckler area with all charolais stock
the finishers around here are advocates of keeping bullocks till 30 months old at least killing big weights

I pass by one farm everyday and they keep charolais till 4 year old and they are massive easily over a tonne its some sight to see

Ah here? 4 years old?

Base price

If/when numbers start to drop will the factories not just pull the old stunt and only kill 2 or 3 days a week in order to keep prices suppressed?

tanko

larrymiller wrote: »

Ah here? 4 years old?

A neighbour of mine sent a 40 month old CH bullock to the factory a couple of months ago. He killed out at 504 kgs and made €1800. He was some beast.

mossiemag

tanko wrote: »

A neighbour of mine sent a 40 month old CH bullock to the factory a couple of months ago. He killed out at 504 kgs and made €1800. He was some beast.

Good money, But i wonder what it cost to keep him an extra 10 months versus what he would have made at 30 Months? Is it worth keeping them that long?

mf240

tanko wrote: »

A neighbour of mine sent a 40 month old CH bullock to the factory a couple of months ago. He killed out at 504 kgs and made €1800. He was some beast.

When i used to keepa few sucklers. I had a charlaois bullock (ai bred mdo) out of a almost pure bred simmental. He killed out 580 kgs at 30 months.

There was nothing about weight limits then.

tanko

Had a look through the herd register last night, in May 2011 I sent a 28 month old CH bull (CF51) out of an Angus cow to the factory. He killed out R+2+ at 490 kgs and made €1711, 125p/lb. The CH x AA is a very underrated beef cross IMO.

My neighbours bullock that made €1800 at 40 months was probably worth a grand when he was a year old so it didn't pay to keep him on. He's a very part time farmer and his cattle are lucky if they see him twice a week.

severeoversteer

mossiemag wrote: »

Good money, But i wonder what it cost to keep him an extra 10 months versus what he would have made at 30 Months? Is it worth keeping them that long?

well one thing about continentals is that it costs an arm and a leg to finish them early, having a grass based diet for longer and reaching maturity and fleshing will be a lot easier and cheaper,

I would happily have a system killing 500kg carcase charolais cattle they always grade well and come to big money even during bad prices
I had a few 3 year old 850kg bullocks in the shed lastwinter and the two year old bullocks were eating more silage than them

Greengrass1

2yr 3mth old fr heifer. Not incalf. What should I get in factory. Nearly fat off grass

Farmer Pudsey

Greengrass1 wrote: »

2yr 3mth old fr heifer. Not incalf. What should I get in factory. Nearly fat off grass

It depends on what way she grades. For a single heifer 3.7 base, if O= you will get QA if quality assured. That would be 3.64/kg, If below O= more than likly you will be heading for 3.4/kg fast.

Greengrass1

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It depends on what way she grades. For a single heifer 3.7 base, if O= you will get QA if quality assured. That would be 3.64/kg, If below O= more than likly you will be heading for 3.4/kg fast.

Father was right so. I was thinking of 3.8/kg.
Very tall fr/ho heifer that couldn't get gun up in cervix.
Would she kill at 50%

Farmer Pudsey

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Father was right so. I was thinking of 3.8/kg.
Very tall fr/ho heifer that couldn't get gun up in cervix.
Would she kill at 50%

No if extreme Ho heifer she may only grade P= and you will really get hammered unless you get a gaurantee on price for P=.

P+ will be about 3.4/kg but she will only kill about 47% if FS3

TopCon

I got 3.70 plus QA during the week for underage. It was best I could do for a handful of cattle. A couple of AA in the mix got the bonus.

Factory on 4 day kill and appears the supply is starting to tighten so I'm gonna hold tough with the main bunch off the grass. Mine were booked in for Thursday and got a call Wednesday morning would I let em off straight away....

Finding it hard enough to replace bullocks for next year. But having said that I Currently have a nice bunch of quality charlois and limos picked up avg 360 kgs. All bought off farms. I've decided quality stock can't be bought at value ringside.

Last year was my first in 3 years not buying in FR after slaughter and im happy enough considering current prices.

FR cattle brought me my most profitable years but I'm sick of em.

Hard to buy good ones. No real visible thrive, constantly walking on grass, could possibly get hit hard if prices slide etc. etc...

My interest in farming was slipping big time. But somewhat rejuvenated this year walking through cattle at grass thriving mad. I was putting a lot of effort into striving for the best farming practices for cattle. I feel now it was being wasted on the FR who have limited thrive prospects.

Fair enough I did well out of them but by god am I sick of em...

larrymiller

TopCon wrote: »

I got 3.70 plus QA during the week for underage. It was best I could do for a handful of cattle. A couple of AA in the mix got the bonus.

Factory on 4 day kill and appears the supply is starting to tighten so I'm gonna hold tough with the main bunch off the grass. Mine were booked in for Thursday and got a call Wednesday morning would I let em off straight away....

Finding it hard enough to replace bullocks for next year. But having said that I Currently have a nice bunch of quality charlois and limos picked up avg 360 kgs. All bought off farms. I've decided quality stock can't be bought at value ringside.

Last year was my first in 3 years not buying in FR after slaughter and im happy enough considering current prices.

FR cattle brought me my most profitable years but I'm sick of em.

Hard to buy good ones. No real visible thrive, constantly walking on grass, could possibly get hit hard if prices slide etc. etc...

My interest in farming was slipping big time. But somewhat rejuvenated this year walking through cattle at grass thriving mad. I was putting a lot of effort into striving for the best farming practices for cattle. I feel now it was being wasted on the FR who have limited thrive prospects.

Fair enough I did well out of them but by god am I sick of em...

I can relate to that,
This year will be the last of fr here, there just so big and hungry and no thrive.
I have 60 that will be soon fit and it's not looking easy to get them killed, maybe this will change in a few weeks and I'll get rid of them.
Sticking to aa and he from now on and currently I'm working on a deal with a few dairy neighbours to take them straight from them at a decent price.

Farmer Pudsey

I staying with the FR, while the sale price is going down so is the buying price. The big issue I have is Do I buy weanlings or year and a halfs. In general you would not get the weanling to the year and a half for the difference in the money. However I find that I cannot buy year and a half as heavy as the yera and a half's I buy as weanlings.

larrymiller

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I staying with the FR, while the sale price is going down so is the buying price. The big issue I have is Do I buy weanlings or year and a halfs. In general you would not get the weanling to the year and a half for the difference in the money. However I find that I cannot buy year and a half as heavy as the yera and a half's I buy as weanlings.

I think a lot of lads ain't willing to put much feed into them as they don't return as much

Farmer Pudsey

larrymiller wrote: »

I think a lot of lads ain't willing to put much feed into them as they don't return as much

I never feed mine at grass, in the shed 1.5 with silage and minerals. I do feed before finish but in general that is the only real ration they get.

larrymiller

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I never feed mine at grass, in the shed 1.5 with silage and minerals. I do feed before finish but in general that is the only real ration they get.

I'm the same but fr are hit hard in times like these.
I'll hopefully be able to get aa & he calves now At a price that won't be to much more than fr .
Dairy lads round me to busy with the cows than the calves.
I'll take advantage of that.
I'm storing straw for them in return for cheaper calves

Muckit

Anyone got any quotes this week for qa heifers?

severeoversteer

Muckit wrote: »

Anyone got any quotes this week for qa heifers?

3.70 for underage qa heifers in athleague

you will get docked for weight by 10 cent if over 400kg dw

there were talks of 3.60 base fairly soon

larrymiller

severeoversteer wrote: »

3.70 for underage qa heifers in athleague

you will get docked for weight by 10 cent if over 400kg dw

there were talks of 3.60 base fairly soon

Slaney are docking if over 380 kg dw

theaceofspies

It's time for the IFA/ICMSA to amalgamagte to establish a farmers co-op and create a processing plant to bring some competitiveness to the market. Sell shares to beef farmers in order to get capital. They are the only body that has the resources within the industry to get this off the ground.

Farmer Pudsey

theaceofspies wrote: »

It's time for the IFA/ICMSA to amalgamagte to establish a farmers co-op and create a processing plant to bring some competitiveness to the market. Sell shares to beef farmers in order to get capital. They are the only body that has the resources within the industry to get this off the ground.

Would you trust them to run it,I would not, I am not sure that they are capable of running a fruit and veg stall in Moore street even if they got the veg and fruit for free.

rangler1

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Would you trust them to run it,I would not, I am not sure that they are capable of running a fruit and veg stall in Moore street even if they got the veg and fruit for free.

I won sheep farmer of the year, my profit monitor puts me in the top third, your statement there implies that there's some rubbish sheep farmers out there if the above average ones you claim are of such low intelligence.
BTW membership increased by 500 in the last 12 mths. despite your warnings
Might interest you to know that, but for our fruit and veg stalls (FBD,IFJ,IFFPG, etc), we would have to increase our membership cost

rangler1

A problem with movements and QA around here, farmers unknowingly buying cattle that have been in rented sheds and when they go to sell them in the mart, they find two extra movements.......these guys won't be caught out again, just giving you a warning

blue5000

rangler1 wrote: »

I won sheep farmer of the year, my profit monitor puts me in the top third, your statement there implies that there's some rubbish sheep farmers out there if the above average ones you claim are of such low intelligence.
BTW membership increased by 500 in the last 12 mths. despite your warnings
Might interest you to know that, but for our fruit and veg stalls (FBD,IFJ,IFFPG, etc), we would have to increase our membership cost

Might interest you to know that due to beef prices my ifa membersip direct debit bounced and I think it's 200 yoyo better spent on kids clothes than blubell or (FBD,IFJ,IFFPG, etc).

rangler1

blue5000 wrote: »

Might interest you to know that due to beef prices my ifa membersip direct debit bounced and I think it's 200 yoyo better spent on kids clothes than blubell or (FBD,IFJ,IFFPG, etc).

I think my 5 years nursing home bills will trump anything you can come up with.
Have already advised a farmer to stop her dd and use the money to get an adviser to help her and at the same time I'm getting our IFA recommended consultant to call, so don't think I'm not aware of what's going on.
Wonder how many here have watched out for their neighbours, plenty of bad cases out there

Farmer Pudsey

rangler1 wrote: »

I won sheep farmer of the year, my profit monitor puts me in the top third, your statement there implies that there's some rubbish sheep farmers out there if the above average ones you claim are of such low intelligence.
BTW membership increased by 500 in the last 12 mths. despite your warnings
Might interest you to know that, but for our fruit and veg stalls (FBD,IFJ,IFFPG, etc), we would have to increase our membership cost

The way I look at it I be saving 100 or there abouts on membership and another 150 on on cattle leveys. The IFFPG is more than likely costing me another 100 euro so may start goung to NI for my silage plastic even if it costs me the same delivered.

I said

In my work driving around the country very little cattle around things have to change by August September cattle will be scarce prices will rise weekly kill will be low by then.Just guessing

rangler1

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

The way I look at it I be saving 100 or there abouts on membership and another 150 on on cattle leveys. The IFFPG is more than likely costing me another 100 euro so may start goung to NI for my silage plastic even if it costs me the same delivered.

As I've said many times, organisation finance is not my problem, nor is it any of the voluntary officers problem

severeoversteer

rangler1 wrote: »

As I've said many times, organisation finance is not my problem, nor is it any of the voluntary officers problem

rangler 1 your comments are off topic!!

please return to beef price tracker

:pac:looks for praise from moderator

rangler1

I said wrote: »

In my work driving around the country very little cattle around things have to change by August September cattle will be scarce prices will rise weekly kill will be low by then.Just guessing

Don't want to burst your bubble but.........remember those 30000 heifers that weren't put in calf last year, well they're entering the system now along with the remains of the 100000 overhang.......this is not goin to end anytime soon.
But then I'm a pessimist, I find it to be the best when I 'm a drystock farmer

Kovu

severeoversteer wrote: »

rangler 1 your comments are off topic!!

please return to beef price tracker

:pac:looks for praise from moderator

Ye may keep looking:P

sandydan

rangler1 wrote: »

Don't want to burst your bubble but.........remember those 30000 heifers that weren't put in calf last year, well they're entering the system now along with the remains of the 100000 overhang.......this is not goin to end anytime soon.
But then I'm a pessimist, I find it to be the best when I 'm a drystock farmer

met a guy whose milking 70 up from previous 50 in 2013 said he has another 60 heifers to put in calf and got an extra 120 acres rented fr 5 years, for definite there are another 12 farmers with over 80 acres i know of, previously beef or suckler who have heifers bought in with view to switching to dairy,maiden heifers in mart were unsaleable and were sold outside ring for around €400 euro this march.you can buy Feb cavers fr/hols for around €800 now. we hear of cow bubble if that bursts and an oversupply to factory occurs will that drag beef trade down with it

Cavanjack

Any prices for cow's?

Mad4simmental

Anyone know what organic beef is makeing at the moment?

sandydan

Cavanjack wrote: »

Any prices for cow's?

got 2.70 /kgwithout bonus for o. 7year old

larrymiller

Any change this week?