beef price tracker

Willfarman

3.70 for a few bullocks tomorrow. They are going for 3.65 next week.

tatoo

Russia will be a great excuse to try and race each other to the bottom.

tanko

tatoo wrote: »

Russia will be a great excuse to try and race each other to the bottom.

A cartel never needs an excuse to lower prices. They just do what they like.

tatoo

True, but the agents will be telling tales of woe about contracts lost and short time coming up........"don't say I said it but..... "

Willfarman

Goodman plants are putting the squeeze on the smaller processors.

tanko

Could be wrong, but I think we export very little beef to Russia. The lack of live exports to Northern Ireland is the crucial problem at the moment.

Farmer Pudsey

tanko wrote: »

Could be wrong, but I think we export very little beef to Russia. The lack of live exports to Northern Ireland is the crucial problem at the moment.

I think we export a lot of offal there

Willfarman

Yes they important for the 5 th quarter that we hear talk about.

mf240

Willfarman wrote: »

Yes they important for the 5 th quarter that we hear talk about.

Yip all the bits that farmers dont get anything for. Im told its able to cover the wage bill in most plants.

sandydan

tanko wrote: »

Could be wrong, but I think we export very little beef to Russia. The lack of live exports to Northern Ireland is the crucial problem at the moment.

id say you right Russia banned imports of beef in June as well as a lot of powder products i think offal was hit as well. pigmeat and pigmeat product were banned in January and only import of major significance was cheese at 12,000 tonnes €4.5 million annually so dairy prices will take major hit if targeted ,even though word has it that some were already half prepared for a ban as its some thing Russia are prone to do at whim,so were eyeing alternative markets for while, but possibly at reduced returns. seafood was also hit with ban.

sandydan

Willfarman wrote: »

Goodman plants are putting the squeeze on the smaller processors.

nothing new about that,i suppose he will also be filling feedlots with unfinished cattle to have in case of price hike:(

dzer2

sandydan wrote: »

nothing new about that,i suppose he will also be filling feedlots with unfinished cattle to have in case of price hike:(

He is looking for a lot of sheds at the moment

Willfarman

Quality stores are still off the wall mad deer. When the grass growth slows a bit and maybe a couple of wet weeks hopefully common sense will prevail again at the ringside.

thetangler

dzer2 wrote: »

He is looking for a lot of sheds at the moment

I have one for him

Willfarman

thetangler wrote: »

I have one for him

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Quality stores are still off the wall mad deer. When the grass growth slows a bit and maybe a couple of wet weeks hopefully common sense will prevail again at the ringside.

Maybe maybe not a lot of farmers have exited cows lots of fodder arounf. Also may not be better value. Store cattle bought now will have 60kgs put up between now and mid October. Alot depends on what cattle you are targeting. IMO finished cattle supplies could be very tight from early October as too many targeting 30 months, cannot see 18-20 month cattle even after a long summer make up the price.

Willfarman

Well last of my grass cattle gone today. I'm not a hardened seller waiting for the big money! But I am reliably informed that they are going to get them back to 3.60 akg befor they have any interest in a higher kill.
Now fodder is plentiful but If mid September if a 670 kg r grade bullock is making 1250 ringside. And it's pissing rain...stores will be picked up at little more than they cost in March as small stock. I am going to let the grass grow.. If the sheep let me! And wait...

farmernewbie

Willfarman wrote: »

Well last of my grass cattle gone today. I'm not a hardened seller waiting for the big money! But I am reliably informed that they are going to get them back to 3.60 akg befor they have any interest in a higher kill.
Now fodder is plentiful but If mid September if a 670 kg r grade bullock is making 1250 ringside. And it's pissing rain...stores will be picked up at little more than they cost in March as small stock. I am going to let the grass grow.. If the sheep let me! And wait...

Thats depressing, bought a few continentals in March around the 300kg mark for avg €760. Hoping to make at least €1000 in November. Reckon they should be around 500kg then. Be reluctant to sell for under €1000.

Willfarman

farmernewbie wrote: »

Thats depressing, bought a few continentals in March around the 300kg mark for avg €760. Hoping to make at least €1000 in November. Reckon they should be around 500kg then. Be reluctant to sell for under €1000.

Are they nice shapes? Bullocks or heifers?

Robson99

Back 5 cent in the factories next week. 3.65 base for heifers and more cuts ahead by the sounds of it

sandydan

farmernewbie wrote: »

Thats depressing, bought a few continentals in March around the 300kg mark for avg €760. Hoping to make at least €1000 in November. Reckon they should be around 500kg then. Be reluctant to sell for under €1000.

you could have got € 950-1000 at 370-400 kg a few weeks ago, certainly saw around 380 and 400 kg hit €1000 in mart
while at 500 kg they aren't making enough to pay cost difference imo ,i know those were hitting 22-24 mths but at that weight id push to 650 kg min to make reasonable price difference.

sandydan

Robson99 wrote: »

Back 5 cent in the factories next week. 3.65 base for heifers and more cuts ahead by the sounds of it

isn't that sabre rattling Russian ban has been in effect since June. NI UK exports need to be sorted pronto

Base price

OH got a price for the cows and bullocks but they will only hold it for Monday and Tuesday!!!
The price for boners and steakers is up 20c to 30c on the same time last year.
I cannot tell you how much as he is away at a stag party and was gone before I got home. He did tell me but I forgot :eek:

Willfarman

Robson99 wrote: »

Back 5 cent in the factories next week. 3.65 base for heifers and more cuts ahead by the sounds of it

Well we were well warned in fairness. They made no secret of their intentions.

larrymiller

Willfarman wrote: »

Well we were well warned in fairness. They made no secret of their intentions.

I don't think we will see 4 euro this year

darragh_haven

We sent off everything that was close to being ready on Tuesday. Hopefully it'll only dip for 3 or 4 weeks and the price will come back up

Miname

larrymiller wrote: »

I don't think we will see 4 euro this year

Im with pudsey on this one,theres a rise coming. This is just another trick with the factories to implementing a mass push of finished cattle for the factories and brow beat farmers enough so that we will be happy to accept whatever their offering.

mf240

The darkest hour is before the dawn.

Willfarman

Yes I have reading the horoscope and counting the stars. I gave up counting the nations cattle. And the price will come up in October. Just as cattle are coming off the land. The traditional time for a price rise in! Er whoops no that doesn't make sense does it!

Miname

Willfarman wrote: »

Yes I have reading the horoscope and counting the stars. I gave up counting the nations cattle. And the price will come up in October. Just as cattle are coming off the land. The traditional time for a price rise in! Er whoops no that doesn't make sense does it!

The only tradition here with beef this year is the games being played. They have to drop a carrot fairly soon or they wont have anyone to stay in beef.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Yes I have reading the horoscope and counting the stars. I gave up counting the nations cattle. And the price will come up in October. Just as cattle are coming off the land. The traditional time for a price rise in! Er whoops no that doesn't make sense does it!

But the factory's count them. Big difference between winter finishers and summer grazers, If July this year was December and now was January with the numbers and outlook winter finishers would pushing the price by 10c/kg a week.

Loo you can always sell cattle just sell those about to go over age. I am coming to the opinion that even thought the kill will remain low just because farmers keep throwing them in and accept the factory price we may not get a rise. But lads accepting that the factory's can pull when they like( and I know they can mess around a lot) is not helping either. From next week on factory's have to kill for UK and French school contracts, People will all be back to work from Sept 1st on. Any slight disruption in supply will cause issue for processors as chills are empty.

Willfarman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

But the factory's count them. Big difference between winter finishers and summer grazers, If July this year was December and now was January with the numbers and outlook winter finishers would pushing the price by 10c/kg a week.

Loo you can always sell cattle just sell those about to go over age. I am coming to the opinion that even thought the kill will remain low just because farmers keep throwing them in and accept the factory price we may not get a rise. But lads accepting that the factory's can pull when they like( and I know they can mess around a lot) is not helping either. From next week on factory's have to kill for UK and French school contracts, People will all be back to work from Sept 1st on. Any slight disruption in supply will cause issue for processors as chills are empty.

They are going to settle at 3.60 the word is. I'm glad you are starting to see sense.
Lads harping about a rise as the price is falling and heading into the fall of the year.. You'll get a rise mid nov. After cattle are housed. But only to the region of bringing it back to pre autumn prices. Lads have to get real.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

They are going to settle at 3.60 the word is. I'm glad you are starting to see sense.
Lads harping about a rise as the price is falling and heading into the fall of the year.. You'll get a rise mid nov. After cattle are housed. But only to the region of bringing it back to pre autumn prices. Lads have to get real.

It is not about seeing sense cattle supplies are tight but we as farmers are leaving the factory's control the price, The cattle kill will be no higher than last year. This time last year prices were slightly over 4/kg and 4/kg was the price all autumn long. We have lads Talking the price down just because traditionally the kill increased in autumn.

Like I said if the same numbers were in the finishing situation the price would be 4+. IMO at some from now on the factory's will lose control due to numbers. There is a provisio that we do not get a really early winter.

Cattle numbers will tighten the last week in july we killed 1K head more than 2013. Last week would have been the same. Traditionall the processors use bank holiday weeks to control kill last week was no different.

My opinion is that young cattle will come fit in November but cattle will get tight at some stage from now to then.

The one thing I have learned as the calculator never lies. If you sit in a mart and do you sums when buying cattle you know when you buy right and wrong, you know when you are paying too much for meal or fertlizer. Just like a lot of us know that the sums on winter finishing is not adding up.

It is the same with cattle numbers at present we as farmers should be in control we are ceeding it to the processors because it is tradition that cattle supply's increase from now on

sandydan

i think i have to agree with Farmer Pudsey on this one Russian market is gone since June officially so whats changed since just spin, what could influence but may not is price drop for dairy products sending young cows into factory for slaughter instead of inseminating in Dec if not held in calf for spring calving a certain percentage fall into this bracket every year anyway. but if milk price drops significantly and with over quota situation at moment dairymen might just take this option and add to supply in autumn rather than after Xmas ,

sandydan

dzer2 wrote: »

He is looking for a lot of sheds at the moment

i have one gale knocked 2 yrs ago he can take it away and reassemble, can his goood deed for environment:D

Farmer Pudsey

dzer2 wrote: »

He is looking for a lot of sheds at the moment

I think trying to get farmers to finish cattle this winter will be extremely hard. Too much money lost last winter. Usually at some stage of a winter finisher make money either at Christmas, with the early winter cattle, during March/April when the majority come on stream or with the May/June cattle out of the shed.

Last winter finishers lost money on all cattle all winter long. Some will have sustained losses of 50 and more/head. This is right across lads that did 20 or 30 to lads that did few hundred. Larry's biggest problem is the lads that do the small amounts. Something like 50% of the winter kill comes from lads killing 20 or 30 out of the shed with a load of small finishers even kill one pen of cattle. These are irreplaceable. The lads that land in with 2 or 3 in a trailer 4 or 5 times during the winter or the lad that has a pen of cattle in February. The other thing is for loads of dairy lads that finish cattle it must be tempting to keep a few extra cows instead of the two pens of bullocks.

If Larry wanted my shed will I rent it to him. Yes I might but he will have to pay someone to feed for him I will not. However my inclination is to let the processors stew this winter.

TUBBY

No finishing out of shed here this winter. Meal lorry wont have to worry about me. Think a lot will be in same boat-why spend your time and money finishing cattle for the factory with no idea how price will be in feb or mar. The seasonal rise to cover winter costs never came last year so would be foolish to presume different.

Miname

TUBBY wrote: »

No finishing out of shed here this winter. Meal lorry wont have to worry about me. Think a lot will be in same boat-why spend your time and money finishing cattle for the factory with no idea how price will be in feb or mar. The seasonal rise to cover winter costs never came last year so would be foolish to presume different.[/QUOTE

Willfarman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It is not about seeing sense cattle supplies are tight but we as farmers are leaving the factory's control the price, The cattle kill will be no higher than last year. This time last year prices were slightly over 4/kg and 4/kg was the price all autumn long. We have lads Talking the price down just because traditionally the kill increased in autumn.


Autumn price last year was 40 to 60 cent down on spring price.
And Fianna Fáil used to accuse people of talking down the economy.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It is not about seeing sense cattle supplies are tight but we as farmers are leaving the factory's control the price, The cattle kill will be no higher than last year. This time last year prices were slightly over 4/kg and 4/kg was the price all autumn long. We have lads Talking the price down just because traditionally the kill increased in autumn.


Autumn price last year was 40 to 60 cent down on spring price.
And Fianna Fáil used to accuse people of talking down the economy.

It was down compared to June price early May base for bulls and steers was 4.2/kg, autumn kill was 6k ahead of June and about 4k ahead of May. I got a base of 4/kg as late as November

Willfarman

Sorry il I should edit that to early summer price rather than spring but my point stands.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Sorry il I should edit that to early summer price rather than spring but my point stands.

It was down on June price however last year June kill was about 25K/week average, the autumn Kill was about 30K/week. This year the kill was 33K/week average for June the autumn kill will struggle to average 30K/week.

It has nothing to do with time of year it is a question of how strong/weak supply numbers are. Last year and the previous after June factory's were talking about a price of 3.5/kg neither year did it happen. This year farmers are ignoring supply numbers and failing to control supply and selling cattle too easily.

Willfarman

Farmers never have had or ever will have any means of trying to control the market. Reality. Autumn price is almost always less than June price.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Farmers never have had or ever will have any means of trying to control the market. Reality. Autumn price is almost always less than June price.

Traditionally the kill was always higher in the autumn that June this year it looks very much like it will not be.

Bill Clinton said one to a journalist after he question why Clinton was preforming weel in the polls before his predisential reelctions ''It the economy stupid''

In this case it a matter of numbers and a dryish autumn would help as well.

When numbers drop below 30K farmers have traditionally managed to rise prices.

However it is in the interest of those that sold early for prices to collapse so taht store will fall in price. However this year may be like 2012 it is not a year to be caught without cattle. The amount of store's around will be limited due to amount of calves exported in 2013 and the amount of weanlings that went to North Africs last winter

mf240

All the cattle that were squezzed instead of beingeft bulls will take and extra 6-12 months to finish as bullocks. This will leave a void at some stage.

mf240

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Traditionally the kill was always higher in the autumn that June this year it looks very much like it will not be.

Bill Clinton said one to a journalist after he question why Clinton was preforming weel in the polls before his predisential reelctions ''It the economy stupid''

In this case it a matter of numbers and a dryish autumn would help as well.

When numbers drop below 30K farmers have traditionally managed to rise prices.

However it is in the interest of those that sold early for prices to collapse so taht store will fall in price. However this year may be like 2012 it is not a year to be caught without cattle. The amount of store's around will be limited due to amount of calves exported in 2013 and the amount of weanlings that went to North Africs last winter

Dont forget about all the extra cattle that died in spring 2013.

Willfarman

Ha god you exhaust me, the price has dropped for next week.
They are pulling midweek. I say 3.60 wil be the price in 2 weeks time.
Might "rise" cough cough.. To 3.70 maybe 3.75 mid nov and that will be it til new year. That's my opinion. Enlighten me of your opinion if you like now

Miname

it'll be at 4 in october and maybe a bit above. all the numbers add up to a rise and prices will be manipulated enough so that lads will be tempted to fill a few pens around the sfp.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Ha god you exhaust me, the price has dropped for next week.
They are pulling midweek. I say 3.60 wil be the price in 2 weeks time.
Might "rise" cough cough.. To 3.70 maybe 3.75 mid nov and that will be it til new year. That's my opinion. Enlighten me of your opinion if you like now

Miname wrote: »

it'll be at 4 in october and maybe a bit above. all the numbers add up to a rise and prices will be manipulated enough so that lads will be tempted to fill a few pens around the sfp.

It might turn faster than that Miname. Factory's looking for Cows and bulls and it is only Sunday evening. They are using Cows and Bulls to bulk out the kill for the last month. Local factory is struggling to find same. Agents ringing around actively during the day. Maybe it is only a local issue but it is strange to say the least with all the cattle that are supposed to be around.

We all forgot one thing with the end of quota's dairy farmers are under less pressure to cull this year. Lots have culled hard for last 3-4 years bringing young heifers into herd so less pressure this year to cull same.

Willfarman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It might turn faster than that Miname. Factory's looking for Cows and bulls and it is only Sunday evening. They are using Cows and Bulls to bulk out the kill for the last month. Local factory is struggling to find same. Agents ringing around actively during the day. Maybe it is only a local issue but it is strange to say the least with all the cattle that are supposed to be around.

We all forgot one thing with the end of quota's dairy farmers are under less pressure to cull this year. Lots have culled hard for last 3-4 years bringing young heifers into herd so less pressure this year to cull same.

They are not looking for prime beef though. Bulls and cows are cheap beef. So 4 euro a kilo before October?:D