February 2012 Boards forecast contest

Wild Bill

5.1C....10.8C....-5.3C.....100%.....100%....8.1C

M.T. Cranium

5.8 .... 14.8 ..... -8.2 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 11.7

DOCARCH

4.8 ..... 14.2 ..... -7.8 .... 91 ..... 105 ..... 2.6

Speak Now

5.5 ..... 13.8 ..... -5.8 .... 80 ..... 100 ..... 6

Deep Easterly

4.8 ..... 12.9 .....-6.3 .... 100 ..... 95 ..... 8.4

rameire

5.6 ..... 14.2 ..... -7.7 ..... 90 ..... 97 ..... 7.9

nilhg

5.7 ..... 13.1 ..... -7 .... 75 ..... 110 ..... 8.5

kindredspirit

5.8 ..... 13 ..... -6.5 ..... 85 ..... 100 ..... 8

Lumi

5.6 ..... 13.4 ..... -7.1 .... 88 ..... 95 ..... 8.1

jambofc

5.5 .... 12.9 ..... -6.8 ..... 095 ..... 130 ..... 10.8

K_1

5.0 .... 13.5 ..... -7.0 ..... 105 ..... 120 ..... 6.5

waterways

6.0 ..... 13.3 ..... -4.2 ..... 90 .... 140 .... 7.1

Sponge Bob

5.9....13.9....-4.9....87....85....7.9

eyesquirm

4.4....12.2....-9.9....88....114....9.0

Redsunset

2.0.....10.0 ..... -15.5 .... 75..... 180 ..... -3.0

Sponge Bob

redsunset wrote: »

2.0.....10.0 ..... -15.5 .... 75..... 180 ..... -3.0

oooOOh! Only Darkman can beat that one!!!!! :eek:

Tae laidir

5.8 ..... 13.2 ..... -7.7 .... 68 ..... 114 ..... 8.7

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for all entries so far, we are now into "late" time which means you could be lightly penalized above 60. A more severe penalty will be applied after 0300h (Friday) and a specific point reduction will be applied to minimum monthly temperature if reported mins on 2nd hold up as predictions (this was a rule made necessary after a discussion about an earlier similar case). This penalty would be conditional, if later readings establish a lower mark, then the penalty will not apply. The penalty will be 5 points off a presumed 20 for that known value.

traecy1

Sorry I'm late

4.7....13.6....-7.1....60....125....6.8

Sponge Bob

I was thinking of automating the competition just a tad. Here is a specimen march Forecast Competition link for people to think about.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dF9odnFreWN5UXBCemUyNU5sMlZ1X3c6MQ

Here is the table of entries.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtUtXLdGJb5dF9odnFreWN5UXBCemUyNU5sMlZ1X3c

Unlike a forecast where you must edit within 48 hours ( or PM a Mod to do it) If you change your mind you simply post a revised forecast if you wish. Have a look and a think.

SeaFields

4.9 ..... 17.5 ..... -9.0 .... 75 ..... 120 ..... 14

Danno

4.2c ..... 12.6c ..... -9.4c .... 65% ..... 130% ..... 7.7c

Harps

A low of -6.3C at Mullingar on the 2nd, will it be beaten tonight? -5C on the 2am report

M.T. Cranium

With regard to the proposed automated contest, why have a revision feature? People can post updated forecasts before deadlines in my format, I just disregard the earlier ones. But not sure what you have in mind about revising into the contest period. That would not work out would it?

Therefore it adds nothing new as far as I can determine at this point.

Sponge Bob

Not a revision as such, a user must post their entire forecast again up to deadline date and post "Done Again" in the thread. The thread and spreadsheet are timestamped so you know that a forecast is genuine from the done again or done.

The spreadsheet is therefore built for you this way MT...is all. Special questions can be quite sophisticated if you wish and no data entry is required save by the competitors. Earlier forecasts ...(eg Sponge Bob posted the entry 3 times) may be deleted after the deadline and only the last one ever counts.

M.T. Cranium

My brain feeling rather fuzzy with all these vague weather systems but I seem to be missing one key point on this table, where does anyone see all the entries at one time? And what prevents somebody from editing any other entry than their own?

Maybe if we ran a flash contest using this method later in February so I could observe how it works. I am not against any idea of automating entries as long as I can be sure they are not changing after a deadline. Also my way of doing things is very straightforward for scoring purposes. I would need to see how a different system reduced work at that stage. I just block copy my table of entries and convert all the entries to scores by column rather than row, it takes very little time except when I have to apply the mercy rule.

Anyway, if some interesting weather event comes up mid-month so we can give this a test run, it would be good. I don't want to add any complications to my weekend so not in the next three days.

Sponge Bob

The second link shows all entries submitted through the first link. These cannot be edited save by authorised users...that is me for now but i can reassign or share that right. there is a full audit trail visible to auth users.

The competion can be closed by nuking the entry form after the deadline but the time stamp on the right is automatic and indisputable.

pauldry

i think the format is fine the way MT has is. Why change it?

I guess the best thing mite be to leave it as it is but if Sponge wants to use that format he could and people could look at whichever they prefer though I feel its making MTs life more complicated than it should be.

Sponge Bob

I'm only showing what can easily be done. If anyone wants to organise a Flash Competition using the method shown simply PM me the Qs and I will prepare it.

M.T. Cranium

I will have a table of February entries up by morning ... on the alternate table front, I am quite interested in seeing how it works in practice so we'll confer about a flash contest, even if ten people enter it will give me the hang of what's involved.

A table that can be converted to a scoring table is ideal, especially if it can then add the cells to provide a total.

Could say with some certainty that I may be looking for a replacement on this task (not foreshadowing any other changes) for the 2013 season, if we all make it past the Mayan-Iranian factor.