February 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for February 2012
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FORECASTER ............ IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... OP-14
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pauldry .................... 6.9 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.8 ..... 087 ..... 101 ..... 8.1
H2UMrsRobinson ........ 6.4 ..... 14.1 ..... -3.5 ..... 088 ..... 087 ..... 9.3
delw ....................... 6.1 ..... 12.5 ..... -6.0 ..... 085 ..... 090 .... 10.0
waterways ............... 6.0 ..... 13.3 ..... -4.2 ..... 090 ..... 140 ..... 7.1
Sponge Bob .............. 5.9 ..... 13.9 ..... -4.9 ..... 087 ..... 085 ..... 7.9
Enderman ................. 5.9 ..... 15.3 ..... -8.0 ..... 080 ..... 105 .... 11.0
200motels ................ 5.9 ..... 15.2 ..... -6.5 ..... 092 ..... 077 .... 11.2
kindredspirit .............. 5.8 ..... 13.0 ..... -6.5 ..... 085 ..... 100 ..... 8.0
Tae laidir .................. 5.8 ..... 13.2 ..... -7.7 ..... 068 ..... 114 ..... 8.7
M.T. Cranium ............ 5.8 ..... 14.8 ..... -8.2 ..... 085 ..... 125 .... 11.7
nilhg ....................... 5.7 ..... 13.1 ..... -7.0 ..... 075 ..... 110 ..... 8.5
rameire .................... 5.6 ..... 14.2 ..... -7.7 ..... 090 ..... 097 ..... 7.9
John mac ................. 5.6 ..... 13.5 ..... -6.3 ..... 092 ..... 095 .... 10.1
Lumi ........................ 5.6 ..... 13.4 ..... -7.1 ..... 088 ..... 095 ..... 8.1
jambofc ................... 5.5 ..... 12.9 ..... -6.8 ..... 095 ..... 130 .... 10.8
Jerry Seinfeld ............ 5.5 ..... 13.8 ..... -5.8 ..... 080 ..... 100 ..... 6.0
alfa beta .................. 5.4 ..... 15.8 ..... -3.8 ..... 090 ..... 105 .... 11.2
Steopo .................... 5.1 ..... 13.2 ..... -9.3 ..... 078 ..... 110 ..... 5.0
Wild Bill .................... 5.1 ..... 10.8 ..... -5.3 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 8.1
Iancar 29 ................. 5.0 ..... 11.0 ..... -7.8 ..... 087 ..... 101 ..... 4.1
K_1 ......................... 5.0 ..... 13.5 ..... -7.0 ..... 105 ..... 120 ..... 6.5
SeaFields* ............... 4.9 ..... 17.5 ..... -9.0 ..... 075 ..... 120 .... 14.0
Joe Public ................ 4.9 ..... 12.9 ..... -9.9 ..... 089 ..... 109 ..... 8.9
talkabout ................. 4.9 ..... 11.5 ..... -7.3 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 7.1

Con Sensus .............. 4.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -7.4 ..... 086 ..... 105 ..... 7.8


NIALL D ................... 4.8 ..... 13.0 ..... -7.1 ..... 099 ..... 109 ..... 5.2
DOCARCH ................. 4.8 ..... 14.2 ..... -7.8 ..... 091 ..... 105 ..... 2.6
Deep Easterly ........... 4.8 ..... 12.9 ..... -6.3 ..... 100 ..... 095 ..... 8.4
traecy1* ................. 4.7 ..... 13.6 ..... -7.1 ..... 060 ..... 125 ..... 6.8
Harps ...................... 4.7 ..... 13.4 ..... -7.9 ..... 090 ..... 090 ..... 7.1
hellboy99 ................. 4.7 ..... 13.3 .... -11.0 ..... 088 ..... 107 ..... 7.2
Hammer Archer ......... 4.7 ..... 13.6 ......-6.8 ..... 085 ..... 106 ..... 9.4
mickger844posts ....... 4.6 ..... 12.8 ..... -7.4 ..... 085 ..... 110 .... 10.2
Rickylovesuall ........... 4.5 ..... 15.0 ..... -6.5 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 8.0
homolumo ................ 4.4 ..... 11.9 ..... -7.5 ..... 089 ..... 103 ..... 8.3
eyesquirm ................ 4.4 ..... 12.2 ..... -9.9 ..... 088 ..... 114 ..... 9.0
Strasser .................. 4.3 ..... 12.5 ..... -7.8 ..... 087 ..... 100 ..... 7.1
dacogawa ................ 4.3 ..... 10.8 .... -11.4 .... 082 ..... 095 ..... 5.2
Danno* ................... 4.2 ..... 12.6 ..... -9.4 ..... 065 ..... 130 ..... 7.7
jd ........................... 4.2 ..... 13.7 ..... -7.4 ..... 087 ..... 107 ..... 6.7
okla ........................ 4.1 ..... 10.8 ..... -7.4 ..... 086 ..... 105 ..... 6.9
fizzycyst ................. 4.0 ..... 11.6 ..... -5.9 ..... 080 ..... 090 ..... 7.5
baraca .................... 3.9 ..... 15.9 .... -11.0 ..... 089 ..... 120 ..... 3.1
snowstreams ............ 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -8.7 ..... 082 ..... 112 ..... 4.3
dasa29 .................... 3.5 ..... 10.5 ..... -6.5 ..... 095 ..... 085 ..... 3.5
Rebelbrowser ............ 3.1 ..... 13.2 .... -10.7 ..... 082 ..... 112 ..... 6.8
MiNdGaM3 ................ 2.8 ..... 13.0 .... -10.0 ..... 082 ..... 101 ..... 4.0
redsunset ................ 2.0 ..... 10.0 .... -15.5 ..... 075 ..... 180 .... -3.0
BLIZZARD7 ............... 0.7 ..... 12.3 .... -17.0 ..... 140 ..... 096 .... -2.3

* late entries, subject to penalty if > 60.
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Our consensus forecast would appear to be a slightly colder than average month with relatively dry weather and a bit more sunshine than normal.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at the first seven days, we find these averages ...

IMT 3.8 C

PRC 39% of normal

SUN 82% of normal

would imagine that today's rain has boosted the precip above 50% but we might find the trend similar in another seven days.

The IMT is based on an unusually strong gradient of about three degrees across the grid.

M.T. Cranium

12.5 deg at Shannon on 9th, I think that's the highest so far this month?

M.T. Cranium

13.9 at Valentia on the 10th.

alfa beta

hi all - can someone tell me what the min temp so far this month has been (or where I can find it)

just wondering if I'm still in the running with my very conservative -3.8 or if we've seen lower than that already.

thanks.

Deep Easterly

alfa beta wrote: »

hi all - can someone tell me what the min temp so far this month has been (or where I can find it)

just wondering if I'm still in the running with my very conservative -3.8 or if we've seen lower than that already.

thanks.

I think the -6.3c at Mullingar on the 2nd is the lowest so far.

M.T. Cranium

I don't think I've ever seen as big a difference between the IMT (including past cases before we had this index) and the CET so far this month. The CET is still running close to -1 C, the IMT is now up around 5, so a six degree difference. In the cold month of Dec 2010 the difference was 0.3 deg ... we might expect Ireland to be a bit milder than central England in cold patterns, but this is a very strong gradient which also shows up in Ireland itself, something like 3 deg from Valentia to Ballyhaise. Meanwhile some parts of eastern England are probably running -3 or -4 C to date. These values are about to be adjusted upwards but I expect a good part of this difference to survive to the end of the month.

pauldry

yeah its strange. guy on weather said lincolnshire was minus 16c last night but it is snowfrost. when theres snowcover frosts are especially severe due to the white coolness.

here in ireland we have just missed out on this spell due to the atlantic being able to get its last bits of weather on top of us but not reach england coz siberia fought back.

temps are averaging 7c in valentia to less than 4c in some parts of leinster and ulster. southwest will go near 8c id say and east nearer to 5c by month end.

very shocked to see 13.9c in valentia yesterday.

i didnt think it would get that mild with all the cold air

will prob be record breaking mild winter at that station and the atlantic seaboard too.

Sponge Bob

oak park 14th 9.2c

M.T. Cranium

Here's an update on the second week (8th to 14th) for February ...

IMT now at 5.4 C after a week at 7.0 C.

PRC now at 59% after a week at 78%.

SUN at 57% after a very dull week at 32%.

Now I'll see if I can actually post this. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

With the third week quite mild, monthly stats are now ...

IMT at 6.1 C after a week at 7.5 C.

PRC at 63% after a week at 70%.

SUN 66% after a week at 83%.

IMT could realistically break 7.0 at this rate, not sure if today's earlier rain and any further rain will be enough to hold the feeble pace, and sunshine could get a boost with any luck, but seems destined to finish no better than 80% for the month.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is closing in on 7.0, congrats to Pauldry who will certainly be closest to the pin on this one. I'll mention in advance that the Monthly Summary is my official source for the maximum so it depends on what they say for last Thursday's 15.5 at Moorepark after they edit the data, also whether anybody beats that tomorrow.

Don't forget to enter March which is now pinned, thanks.

M.T. Cranium

Almost done now, we have this fourth week of updates and I'll add my estimates from today's observations ...

IMT at 7.0 C after a week at 9.6 C. Could finish 7.1 C depends on rounding.

PRC at 63% after a week at 61%. Will fall off to 60-62 perhaps with today's mainly dry conditions and any errors in my estimates (a few cases of missing data earlier).

SUN 58% after a week at 35%. This won't get any better today.

Considering how cold the first two or three days were, this has been an exceptionally mild period (since the 4th) running on record monthly pace for the "month" of 3 Feb to 2 March which may average close to 8 C.

Wild Bill

So...no cigar and not even close in my case

M.T. Cranium

Final figures throw us a few surprises ...

IMT 7.1 C

MAX is given as 15.0 at Phoenix Park 23rd ... apparently 15.5 at MoorePark either no good or doesn't count.

MIN is -6.3 at Mullingar on 2nd

PRC is 62% of normal

SUN is 68% of normal

bonus as mentioned earlier 9.2 at Oak Park 14th

scoring now underway (grind, whirr)

results in this thread later today.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for February

FORECASTER ........... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN .. OP-14 ... TOTAL
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Actual values ........... 7.1 ... 15.0 .. -6.3 .... 062 .... 068 ... 9.2

200motels ............... 14* .... 18 ..... 18 ..... 05 ..... 09* .... 05 ..... 69
delw ....................... 18* .... 00 ..... 17 ..... 07 ..... 06 ..... 09 ..... 57
H2UMrsRobinson ........ 20*.... 11 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 07* .... 10 ..... 54
John mac ................. 10 ..... 05 ..... 20 ..... 05 ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 53
Rickylovesuall ........... 00 ..... 20 ..... 18 ..... 04 ..... 03 ..... 07 ..... 52
cherryghost (Enderman) 14* .. 17 ..... 03 ..... 09 ..... 03 .... 05 ..... 51
Sponge Bob .............. 14*.... 09 ..... 06 ..... 07 ..... 08*.... 06 ..... 50
pauldry .................... 24 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 48
kindredspirit .............. 12 ..... 00 ..... 18 ..... 07 ..... 04 ..... 07 ..... 48
Jerry Seinfeld ............ 09 ..... 08 ..... 15 ..... 10 ..... 04 ..... 02 ..... 48
nilhg ........................ 11 ..... 01 ..... 13 ..... 11 ..... 02 ..... 09 ..... 47
Lumi ........................ 10 ..... 04 ..... 12 ..... 06 ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 45
Tae laidir .................. 12 ..... 02 ..... 06 ..... 13 ..... 02 ..... 09 ..... 44
rameire .................... 10 ..... 12 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 04 ..... 06 ..... 44
M.T. Cranium ............ 12 ..... 18 ..... 01 ..... 07 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 41
Hammer Archer ......... 01 ..... 06 ..... 15 ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 10 ..... 41
Deep Easterly ........... 02 ..... 00 ..... 20 ..... 02 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 38
fizzycyst .................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 16 ..... 09 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 37
traecy1* ................. 01 ..... 06 ..... 12 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 36
jambofc ................... 09 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 04 ..... 00 .... 06 ..... 34
alfa beta .................. 08 ..... 12 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 03 .... 05 ..... 34
dasa29 .................... 00 ..... 00 ..... 18 ..... 04 ..... 08*.... 00 ..... 30
waterways ............... 16*.... 03 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 29
Wild Bill .................... 05 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 02 ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 29
jd ........................... 00 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 03 ..... 28

Con Sensus .............. 03 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 03 ..... 06 ..... 28

DOCARCH ................. 02 ..... 12 ..... 05 ..... 05 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 27
talkabout ................. 03 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 04 ..... 26
mickger844posts ........ 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 26
homolumo ................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 06 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 25
K_1 ......................... 04 ..... 05 ..... 13 ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 25
Harps ....................... 01 ..... 04 ..... 04 ..... 06 ..... 06 ..... 04 ..... 25
Joe Public ................. 03 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 10 ..... 21
okla ......................... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 03 ..... 21
Danno* .................... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 20
NIALL D .................... 02 ..... 00 ..... 12 ..... 03 ..... 02 ..... 01 ..... 20
Steopo ..................... 05 ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 02 ..... 01 ..... 20
Strasser ................... 00 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 04 ..... 04 ..... 20
Iancar 29 .................. 04 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 19
eyesquirm ................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 10 ..... 18
baraca ..................... 00 ..... 11 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 17
hellboy99 .................. 01 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 05 ..... 17
SeaFields* ................ 03 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 11 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 15
dacogawa ................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 05 ..... 01 ..... 14
Rebelbrowser ............. 00 ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 01 ..... 03 ..... 14
MiNdGaM3 ................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 11
redsunset ................. 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 11 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 11
snowstreams ............. 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 01 ..... 01 ..... 10
BLIZZARD7 ................ 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 00 ..... 04

* late entries, subject to penalty if > 60 ... no penalties were assessed.
* with scores = minimum progression rule used, some small increases of 1-2.

Congrats to 200 motels, delw and H2UMrsR for leading the table, and Pauldry for coming very close on an unusually high IMT value.

I will start an annual scoring thread after the March contest.

Rikand

I need more points for nailing the MAX temp for feb imo

And for almost nailing the MIN