Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

Musicman2000

The ECM run will do nicely, Even Siobhan saying its going to get colder next week:)

ninebeanrows

And this is one of the best charts i have seen in internet history!

Shame it is at T168 and now T72

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Mother of god, look at south east UK!

alfa beta

Much more alignment between that ecm and the gfs at around 144 hours now than I was expecting earlier....encouraging runs. If that alignment could stay (and even intensify) as we creep closer to a 96 hour mark things would surely be looking good.

rc28

Wow, ECM is a massive upgrade. At 168hrs there is -14c uppers over us (snow showers in Irish sea). UK and Europe under truly severe cold.

See link below and at the top left corner you can see the eastern side of Ireland.
http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=2&archive=0

Tom Cruises Left Nut

lol

oterra

Weathercheck wrote: »

And this is one of the best charts i have seen in internet history!

Shame it is at T168 and now T72

If the 18z verifies I'll be chuffed. Great turnaround on the ECM!

darkman2

Even accounting for the fact this may still not happen I think Met Éireann should really start mentioning this as a possibility. That's severe from 96hrs no doubt about it.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

darkman2 wrote: »

Even accounting for the fact this may still not happen I think Met Éireann should really start mentioning this as a possibility. That's severe from 96hrs no doubt about it.

18z GFS and of course 00z ECm are gonna be huge, if the UKMO agrees too then I think we have got there

Sponge Bob

darkman2 wrote: »

Even accounting for the fact this may still not happen I think Met Éireann should really start mentioning this as a possibility. That's severe from 96hrs no doubt about it.

They are warning of cold already....eg Siobhan after 6 oc news. Any snow warning can wait till about tuesday, no point frightening the farmers tomorrow seeing as the snow risk is small to none (around none where I am) until late thursday or friday.

There is no serious moisture about mid week, dry crispy cold is what is on offering.

rKossi

IF CARLSBERG DID WEATHER MODELS.....

t|nt|n wrote: »

pistolpetes11

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zeyYI2bxjM

ninebeanrows

Aha, the ECM is one of the best runs ever. It blasts us with an incredible cold eastelry then looks like it is going to give us a Northerly afterwards!

H2UMrsRobinson

Ahh will ye's all stop. I'm ever the optimist but I gotta feeling this is gonna end up like a one night stand - full of promise and excitement but all we end up with with is a soggy mess and a feeling of emptiness and regret !

(I sincerely hope this post comes back and bites me in the arse)

Duiske

Not had much time to keep an eye on the charts this past few days, but that 12z GFS is a stunner. Cold coming now wether we like it or not. Finer details about snow areas will have to wait till wednesday or thereabouts.

jacko1

watch those 20kg bags of salt starting to sell out in the shops

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

At what point would you now deem the charts to be in FI territory ?

Its getting had to keep up with them

I would only take up to 144hrs as reasonably reliable. Within 96 hrs i would trust them. Out to 192hrs would be a reasonably possible outcome.

Correct me if im wrong but the forecast 850hpa temps are lower(and by a long way) than we hand in Dec 2009/Jan 2010 or Nov/Dec 2010. Those times we typically had -7/-8c @ 850hpa.

rc28

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I would only take up to 144hrs as reasonably reliable. Within 96 hrs i would trust them. Out to 192hrs would be a reasonably possible outcome.

Correct me if im wrong but the forecast 850hpa temps are lower(and by a long way) than we hand in Dec 2009/Jan 2010 or Nov/Dec 2010. Those time we typically had -7/-8c @ 850hpa.

Yes that is what I was just thinking; the upper temps in December 2010 didn't get lower than -10c as far as I recall. Obviously, however, the snow cover in 2010 really helped lower the temperatures at night to exceptional levels.

darkman2

Sponge Bob wrote: »

They are warning of cold already....eg Siobhan after 6 oc news. Any snow warning can wait till about tuesday, no point frightening the farmers tomorrow seeing as the snow risk is small to none (around none where I am) until late thursday or friday.

There is no serious moisture about mid week, dry crispy cold is what is on offering.

It's not the snow risk I am talking about but the cold.



When that flow becomes established you will know about it. Very cold at the surface and frost and ice will become real issues again for the first time since 2010.

The snow risk emerges later on. We can cross that fence when we get to it.

cyclops999

Is it true that the middle of next week day time temps could see wind chill as low as -7/-10.:eek:

alfa beta

With all the focus on the ecm and the gfs I forgot to have a gander at the 12z gefs - that's rather nice (from a cold perspective) from 130 odd hours out too (and sitting close enough to the other two models to lend a little extra wait to the possibility of this all happening.)

Now I just need MT to drop by and say....yep, no reason why this ain't gonna happen....coz no matter how super the supercomputers are, they're still not going to convince me to start chicken counting on their own!

Musicman2000

cyclops999 wrote: »

Is it true that the middle of next week day time temps could see wind chill as low as -7/-10.:eek:

Yes they could be, But that could change your better off checking in here over the next few days.

nacho libre

It seem the ukmo now don't want to play ball, still it's encouraging to have two models more or less on message. The ecm chart way out in fi depicting the azore high on the move north, would be the proverbial icing on the cake, but alas it more than likely won't happen.

according to the NOAA:

Full discussion here:

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html

"There does seem to be uncertainty regarding location of troughing and ridging in the USA which does make a difference to Europe, in terms of retrogression,it suggests the models have picked up on a new signal to pull the pattern further west."

blackius

Would somebody please hold me
I'm scared

Trotter

Ive been away from the thread for a good while today. Could I have a mini state of the nation summary on how things are?

Am I right in saying things went up and down but the 12z put things on course for severe cold and east coast snow from Thursday onwards? (Taking the clear likelihood for it to go pear shaped into account obviously).

GFS run at 9pm ish?

BEASTERLY

I'm planning a camping trip up Lug, is late next week/next weekend a good time to go? I think ill leave the coats at home to save weight as it's been so mild lately :pac:

BEASTERLY

Trotter wrote: »

Ive been away from the thread for a good while today. Could I have a mini state of the nation summary on how things are?

Am I right in saying things went up and down but the 12z put things on course for severe cold and east coast snow from Thursday onwards? (Taking the clear likelihood for it to go pear shaped into account obviously).

GFS run at 9pm ish?

Pressure looks to high for serious snow. But by brass donkey bollocks does it look cold!!

Trotter

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Pressure looks to high for serious snow. But by brass donkey bollocks does it look cold!!

drass donkey bollocks eh? Thats quite a rare variety of said donkey bollocks.

Can you give me the toddlers version of the high pressure situation? Are we talking about the pressure system thats tracking westerly from Europe being too high?

BEASTERLY

Its at times like this you'd miss the analysis of Maq, thetonynator or Deep Easterly

Lads if ye're lurkin, please come back!!!

delw

don't know whats harder to keep up with,the changes to the models or the changes to the tread title :D:D