Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

Redsunset

00z

18z

darkman2

redsunset wrote: »

Hold on the head of the high is being pulled toward Greenland. Everything bit more west

NOAA discussions refer to westward drift in output for Europe. This run seems consistent with that.

nacho libre

It would be superb if this chart verified. It would also tally with GP's thoughts.

Redsunset

It sure does,anyway I'll sleep happier now,

mickger844posts

Excellent run i would say. Everything moving that bit further West and the deep cold hitting our shores sooner. We have had some amazing runs the last few days so hopefully the trend will continue and whats on the charts will actually happen.:D

MUSEIST

Excellent run IMO, the high is further west bringing colder air to us. The atlantic low will try and undercut it I would imagine.

Musicman2000

Nice UKMO run as well further west again:)

BLIZZARD7

WOW WOW WOW- GFS is epic- as if heavy snow from streamers in the irish sea wasnt enough- then it brings in atlantic lows to undercut the high and give widespread serious snow events! Would be measuring snow in metres if this verified!

UKMO is an upgrade on the 12z- +96hrs is excellent! After that is not in same league as GFS but is still very good, hopefully the GFS/ECM are leading the way here.

FI is +96hrs imo.




Dan

mickger844posts

Yes a very nice UKMO 0Z. Further west and deeper faster, just like the GFS 0Z. Will the ECM follow suite and make it the hat trick? Just one more hour to wait to find out.

darkman2

ECM@72hrs



Confirms acceleration of bringing cold west. Snow showers possible in the East on Tuesday night.

But it is putting energy into the Northern arm of the jet stream.

mickger844posts

darkman2 wrote: »

ECM@72hrs


Confirms acceleration of bringing cold west. Snow showers possible in the East on Tuesday night.

So far so good for ECM 0Z, looking like an upgrade on the previous run. Wonder will this be reflected in Met Eireanns forecasts today.

blackius

And the ecm does a wobbly by Saturday we are in a southerly if my eyes don't deceive me.

mickger844posts

blackius wrote: »

And the ecm does a wobbly by Saturday we are in a southerly if my eyes don't deceive me.

Yes at 96hrs and beyond the ECM 0Z is definitely a step in the wrong direction but that's FI anyway so wouldn't be too worried yet

blackius

mickger844posts wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

And the ecm does a wobbly by Saturday we are in a southerly if my eyes don't deceive me.

Yes at 96hrs and beyond the ECM 0Z is definitely a step in the wrong direction but that's FI anyway so wouldn't be too worried yet

True but this is the ecm..its going to make for a boring farming forecast on rte later and the 755 am radio one before that.
Expect 4's and 5's and the word dry to be used.

M.T. Cranium

* goes off to flip a coin for today's forecast *

Really, the majority of the guidance places Ireland into the very cold air from Thursday to Saturday then brings in the Atlantic, while the ECM says front stalls in western Britain and Ireland stays mild despite a foot of snow in London and -20 C uppers in Holland.

Leaning to the colder solution personally, just looks too massive to be held back that easily. But it will mean having to continue with percentage chance sort of outlook.

Musicman2000

Typical ECM:)

M.T. Cranium

This satellite link from the Swedish met site will be interesting to monitor as it gives a good overview of the circulation ahead of the Siberian air mass (the diffuse front is now around central Sweden to western Poland). Note all the energy moving north from Italy to Denmark. This will interact with the front to bring about the meso-scale lows expected to form over the North Sea region mid-week. This is important to the chances for cold and snow in Ireland. The more cold air that gets past this hurdle, the better because it will tend to get blocked into place over northern France.

http://www.smhi.se/en/Weather/2.732/satellite-europe-rgb?satellite europe rgb=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.smhi.se%2FweatherCacheSMHI2%2Fsatellitbilder%2F.%2Fmsg_ir9_euro4_en.htm

On that same site, you can access hourly temperature, pressure and radar for Sweden. I see that the pressure has now reached 1055.5 mbs in the northeast at Haparanda, and there are reports near 1060 mbs in Russia just north of St Petersburg around Petrozadovsk.

This is all looking suspiciously similar to the Jan 1987 mid-month event, and if there are changes ahead, I suspect they could be upgrades in wind speed, there's something a bit fishy about the weak gradient coming along with the severe cold across the warm North Sea. Something has to give there.

derekon

I find the ECM model to be the most accurate and the way it is currently projecting the cold is fascinating. The proper cold seems to just stop at West Wales/Irish Sea and not make it to Ireland (apart from some -8 uppers for the east coast this Wed)

Is this a conspiracy?!!

Also, I think Met Eireann bases its forecasts on the ECM so don't expect any warning of significant cold on today's farming forecast - forewarned is forearmed.

And if Gerry Murphy is presenting, we will really know its game up........:)

D

Nabber

ECM isn't looking to bad:cool:

blackius

@nabber that ecm though stops the easterly by saturday which is why it's disappointing.
However output at 144 cannot be trusted yet.

Last evenings output sweet as it was couldn't be trusted either but needed to be maintained.

The lesson here to be learned more than ever is to watch whats going on inside 120hrs with an even more eagle eye than usual as small changes there lead to big changes later.
The short waves/mesoscale features mt alludes to for example have the potential to cut off or enhance the cold flow depending on where they go and how they orientate.

oterra

Looks like a slower progression up to 102hrs on 06z GFS, but still on track

Nabber

blackius wrote: »

@nabber that ecm though stops the easterly by saturday which is why it's disappointing.
However output at 144 cannot be trusted yet.
.

I'm ignorant to anything past 96hrs.... This time the ignorance is bliss

I don't really bother looking past 96hrs. The models diverge too much and the GFS has some crazy predictions on how this could turn out. I'm not sure a trend can bee seen past 96hr at the moment anyways.

I'm going to stick with 72+ and venture up to 96+ every now and then.
There is plenty of eye candy at 72hrs

DOCARCH

06z GFS out now. Looking good to very good (well for the east coast anyway)! An Atlantic front tries to push through towards the end of the run but is pushed back by the cold air with snow on it's leading edge. Colder air for the east coast than in previous run.

BEASTERLY

I'm disappointed by the models all round this morning tbh. A bad trend of the cold not getting as far west on the GFS, and then the ECM.

Real cold arriving later and departing earlier on every run now too..

To Alcohol

Too many if buts and maybes for my liking. The gulf is full steam ahead and will win the day sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I'd be shocked if we got anything other than a few cool days from this.

munsterlegend

To Alcohol wrote: »

Too many if buts and maybes for my liking. The gulf is full steam ahead and will win the day sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I'd be shocked if we got anything other than a few cool days from this.

Well the Atlantic will always win ultimately! Hopefully we'll get some action from the east before it does..too early yet to be looking to the weekend given the big changes in just 48 hours.

Redsunset

To Alcohol wrote: »

Too many if buts and maybes for my liking. The gulf is full steam ahead and will win the day sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I'd be shocked if we got anything other than a few cool days from this.

I think you mean Jet stream here and of course the Atlantic will come back however we simply cannot say for sure as it really is very tricky to nail down,even the pros have been getting it rough lately by describing 2 possible outcomes in their further outlooks based on the models.

You really need to beef up your post when posting in Model Discussion Thread other wise it is just for the chat thread.

ninebeanrows

Models not as good this morning, but good overall.

The 6z GFS is a snowmageddon type run.

It is beginning to look like we aren't going to get those ultra -15c 850hpas but we still look good to get down to -8->-12c

At the moment the easterly flow never really makes it clean through, this is due to a shortwave that gets ejected from Iceland around T72, that nudges the block south.

Overall though you'd take the 6z run and its metre of snow.

Also the cold looks to come in MORE quickly. With temperatures on Tuesday just 3-4c for most, upto 8c on the west coast.

Still a wide wide array of solutions possible at T168hrs

Tom Cruises Left Nut

My old friend the CFS shows a nicer cold as below !

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

Models not as good this morning, but good overall.

The 6z GFS is a snowmageddon type run.

It is beginning to look like we aren't going to get those ultra -15c 850hpas but we still look good to get down to -8->-12c

At the moment the easterly flow never really makes it clean through, this is due to a shortwave that gets ejected from Iceland around T72, that nudges the block south.

Overall though you'd take the 6z run and its metre of snow.

Also the cold looks to come in MORE quickly. With temperatures on Tuesday just 3-4c for most, upto 8c on the west coast.

Still a wide wide array of solutions possible at T168hrs

I would still take uppers of -8 to -12 with plenty of the white stuff:)