Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

yorlum11

t|nt|n wrote: »

My old friend the CFS shows a nicer cold as below !

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I would take that

BEASTERLY

Once again the GFS op run was a big outlier. Don't be surprised if the coming runs drastically drop cold solutions for much milder ones.

derekon

The Country Tracks weather on the BBC notes very cold air from this Wednesday onwards.

However no major snow for Ireland or Britain, just frost and the presenter alluded to mild Atlantic muck winning out by next weekend though still some uncertainty around that

D

Musicman2000

derekon wrote: »

The Country Tracks weather on the BBC notes very cold air from this Wednesday onwards.

However no major snow for Ireland or Britain, just frost and the presenter alluded to mild Atlantic muck winning out by next weekend though still some uncertainty around that

D

Get the cold first, and worry about snow later.

derekon

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Once again the GFS op run was a big outlier. Don't be surprised if the coming runs drastically drop cold solutions for much milder ones.

Agree 100% - I think we will be looking at major downgrades later today/tomorrow. Not what we want to hear but reality does bite!:D

D

Trotter

Is the operational run (I assume this is the one most widely 'published'?) done in any different way to the other runs? As in is one run chosen at random to represent the full run for that time or do they put more 'work' into the operational?

BEASTERLY

Trotter wrote: »

Is the operational run (I assume this is the one most widely 'published'?) done in any different way to the other runs? As in is one run chosen at random to represent the full run for that time or do they put more 'work' into the operational?

The operational run is at much a higher resolution. It could be the case that mesoscale features which only the op run can pick up and model properly have huge differences in this case. Such as the shortwave coming out of Iceland.

Then again the ECM is at an even higher res and that said no to the beast this morning.

doccy

derekon wrote: »

Agree 100% - I think we will be looking at major downgrades later today/tomorrow. Not what we want to hear but reality does bite!:D

D

I agree, but I fully expect an upgrade 12 hours later, followed by another downgrade, and so on

K_1

GFS 6Z has a snow fest non stop for 96 hours from 120hrs!

e.g:

Trotter

K_1 wrote: »

GFS 6Z has a snow fest non stop for 96 hours from 120hrs!

e.g:

Shhhh! You'll ruin it!

darkman2

The 00z's overall are good. The UKMO and ECM need a bit of tweaking to get the really cold air a bit further west. Maybe it is a better possibility we will be within the zone of frontal snow. Which would be good for those who want snow. But it could go either way. Hopefully the 12z's offer more solid guidance.

mcriot29

darkman2 wrote: »

The 00z's overall are good. The UKMO and ECM need a bit of tweaking to get the really cold air a bit further west. Maybe it is a better possibility we will be within the zone of frontal snow. Which would be good for those who want snow. But it could go either way. Hopefully the 12z's offer more solid guidance.

Models today show ireland does not get any real cold nao plays well with this idea as it never goes very neg and goes pos , looks like cold air never gets pased wales , will this afternoons models be worse for ireland in terms of cold lets wait and see, feck it anyways

ninebeanrows

Obviously it could still change, but you have to realise the GFS Ensembles are useless for forecasting.

You need the high res runs as they can handle things much better, although i do note that the control doesn't look great which is a worry.

Massive set of 12zs this evening that is for sure.

Kippure

The 12z and 18z GFS run will be massive upgrades. There only starting to get a handle on the cold block to the east.

Fun times ahead.

Trotter

What time do we see the 12Z out? 4ish?

K_1

Weathercheck wrote: »

Obviously it could still change, but you have to realise the GFS Ensembles are useless for forecasting.

You need the high res runs as they can handle things much better, although i do note that the control doesn't look great which is a worry.

Massive set of 12zs this evening that is for sure.

The GFS ensembles are taken as being very good for forecasting though whenever the Op run is a mild outlier.

How often do we see posts around here like ''12z very poor but has little ensemble support''?!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Starts at 15:30

Should be mostly complete for the timeframe we want by 16:30

mcriot29

Kippure wrote: »

The 12z and 18z GFS run will be massive upgrades. There only starting to get a handle on the cold block to the east.

Fun times ahead.

Do you think cfs and gfs will turn out correct they show cold air over ireland where rest of the models seem to show no cold past irish sea, id be a lot less worried if that cold mild line was pushed out past are west coast

darkman2

12z DWD for Tuesday morning is an upgrade on the 00z run. Tuesday looks increasingly very cold.






By Wednesday

Sponge Bob

No. trust ecm up to 96hrs

Kippure

mcriot29 wrote: »

Do you think cfs and gfs will turn out correct they show cold air over ireland where rest of the models seem to show no cold past irish sea, id be a lot less worried if that cold mild line was pushed out past are west coast

I think the GFS will show more of a stronger easterly componet. The atlantic is dying away slowly. That has been the trend. The cold block is huge. The cold will win out imo.

I noticed before any cold period the models have some wild swings. The closer we get to a relible time frame, the more accurate it becomes.

The cfs is something of a wild card. It really does change alot.

Over the last couple of weeks it has been hard to tell which model is best. Its the GFS one week then the ECM the next. Swings and roundabouts.

I would just take the models as Guideance up to 72 Hours.

Kippure

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


ALL ABOARD....:)

Tusky

Could someone give me their best guess at a weather forecast for next 3-5 days? Dublin/Ireland

Redsunset

Simon's feelings on the models.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7L3K1IFyjY

doccy

Tusky wrote: »

Could someone give me their best guess at a weather forecast for next 3-5 days? Dublin/Ireland

Check MT's forecast here. It's as realistic as you're going to get.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Looking at +60 the angle of the cold coming in looks better. Heading directly west instead of southwest on the last run

6z



12z



What this means I do not know ! :pac:

darkman2

12z GFS rolling out. Again Tuesday night looks like being the first subzero night for most of this upcoming period.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Upgraded cold at +96. TO my eyes this run is a definite upgrade ! Lets see where this takes us

mcriot29

t|nt|n wrote: »

Upgraded cold at +96. TO my eyes this run is a definite upgrade ! Lets see where this takes us

Lol so will the east get blasted with snow its up and down i know its far put but the models seem to show a greeny high on the way, any one think we may be in for at least 2 weeks of very cold , im still not happy the way east coast is always on edge of the proper cold

Harps

Haven't been on the computer since Friday night but a quick look at the 0z ECMWF seems to go along with what I was saying all week with the Atlantic keeping the cold air to the east for the most part. Over 20 pages in this thread since then & don't have the time to go through it all right now

What's the general thinking at the moment then?