Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

ninebeanrows

The 12z GFS is not good.

Attack from the Atlantic does not undercut but goes over the top, collapsing things.

Still potential and will be cold especially in the east but not very good.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 12z GFS is not good.

Attack from the Atlantic does not undercut but goes over the top, collapsing things.

Still potential and will be cold especially in the east but not very good.

Ill meet ya back here for the ECM :mad:

MUSEIST

Shocking GFS, the high sinks into europe deflecting the cold. We end up with southerly mild winds this timenext week. The beginning of a series of nut crunching downgrades me thinks.


Oh dear

youngblood

So big downgrade on the way??

Snow hopes dashed again!

Yahew

Its a downgrade in the medium term, (not the short term) but is one run. Lets see what the other models do.

darkman2

UKMO and GFS op run pretty much in sync at 96hrs so it's a possible outcome the high could sink. Still, a while to go yet. Don't be too flustered about it.

derekon

MUSEIST wrote: »

Shocking GFS, the high sinks into europe deflecting the cold. We end up with southerly mild winds this timenext week. The beginning of a series of nut crunching downgrades me thinks.


Oh dear

And that is why one should not go further than the T+72 timeframe.
Expect major downgrades as we go through the week, Ireland is just too far west for the cold and being marginal on the models is a serious receipe for downgrades........

D

yorlum11

Its the first blip from the gfs,lets see how the others pan out and indeed the gfs over the next couple of runs.

Fourteen

No way. I've been reading all these updates, and now it looks like another disappointment?

How do you people stay sane?

ninebeanrows

LOOK AWAY NOW

:eek::eek: UKM is worse than one could have imagined possible.

Yahew

ack its probably just a Sunday run, less information from planes and weather balloons etc.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO AND GFS sink the high - FI is firmly at +72hrs to +96hrs.




Dan

John.Icy

UKMO is hilarious. (And disasterous)

I think some may have learned a lesson, an outlier is an outlier, don't get your hopes up!

Maybe a flip will happen, but I don't see it, never did.

Prove me wrong snow gods!

MUSEIST

The orientation of the high is completely different on this run, it collapses almost immediately as the atlantic roars through. It does not look good.

But remember its just one run and could be different next run

Kippure

What a laugh:D

Proves the Models find it difficult to handle cold.

Next...:)

Yahew

But.... two models have picked this up. They must be getting signals that the Atlantic is stronger than we thought, or something.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The thing is that we have had models agreeing on things then dumping them so much lately.

Don't take what we have just seen as gospel. Take a loot at the ECm and the 18z GFS and see what happens there

Trotter

Now I'm no expert but surely the Atlantic taking over wouldn't be seen so prominantly in such a short interval. There's something fishy going on. The UKMO is backing it also so it can't just be a wobble can it? That's one massive adjustment in just one run.

Kippure

Yahew wrote: »

But.... two models have picked this up. They must be getting signals that the Atlantic is stronger than we thought, or something.

But the Trend has been showing for a long while now a weakening atlantic. The lows are,nt powering through like they were before.


This block on the face of it is to big.

It must push west......:p:p

darkman2

It's by no means certain what will happen post 96hrs. It appears we reach a fork in the road where either the atlantic systems go over the top and sink the setup or undercut. Alot of uncertainty about how that will play out. But it's good up until 96hrs.

Musicman2000

Uncertain is right, Talk about a kick in the teeth

Harps

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

UKMO AND GFS sink the high - FI is firmly at +72hrs to +96hrs.




Dan

Has been the case for over a week now but that fact seems to be ignored whenever something interesting is being shown, anything beyond the weekend should have been treated as nonsense until today.

As has been shown all week, the cold only reaches the east coast with the Atlantic keeping the rest of us a bit warmer. FI is still within a few days so ignore it until there's broad agreement, anything can happen yet

200motels

It looks like it's gone tits up on the last GFS run which is usually the best of there runs, it will get cold but not a sustained cold, the mild muck will be back by the weekend and bye bye winter and hello spring.

mcriot29

200motels wrote: »

It looks like it's gone tits up on the last GFS run which is usually the best of there runs, it will get cold but not a sustained cold, the mild muck will be back by the weekend and bye bye winter and hello spring.

The nao is not low enough toget ireland under cold , its going to be at plus 2 so this woulf be what models are picking up game over i think

Musicman2000

200motels wrote: »

It looks like it's gone tits up on the last GFS run which is usually the best of there runs, it will get cold but not a sustained cold, the mild muck will be back by the weekend and bye bye winter and hello spring.

Its just one run, Think we should wait to see what the ECM says, but at the moment its not looking good when the UKMO are backing the GFS run. Its all down to that shortwave near Iceland. and the run was going well up to 120 hrs and for such a strong block to blow apart so easy is very strange.

derekon

200motels wrote: »

It looks like it's gone tits up on the last GFS run which is usually the best of there runs, it will get cold but not a sustained cold, the mild muck will be back by the weekend and bye bye winter and hello spring.

Lets wait for the next run however things at the moment do no look good for sustained cold. The coming hours will be interesting....

D

blackius

No matter what the ECM does tonight,I'm reserving judgement untill tuesday evening at about 7...
Thats when I had always planed to make a call anyway.

We know whats available to come in atlantic wise so we'll know what progress it's likely to be making by tuesday night.

Model watching between this and then is a necessary evil of the hobby but a head wrecking exercise.

darkman2

The GFS is good compared to the UKMO. A couple of potential snow events on the run too in the not too distant future. And it's very cold especially in the East.

patneve2

I just can't see that massive high pressure being eroded so quickly and easily, I am still confident of cold, maybe not as cold as what models were showing in previous runs but cold with possibility of snow nonetheless

Kippure

derekon wrote: »

Lets wait for the next run however things at the moment do no look good for sustained cold. The coming hours will be interesting....

D

Things look great for sustained cold, remember i promised you Snow a while back...:D

Lets not base this on one all over the shop run. The 12z is Very unlikley to happen 90% odds.

We,ve got 3 things going for us here..

1. Massive cold block to the east slowly moving west.
2. A weaKening atlantic. Lows arent powering through.
3. And we,re in the battle ground for snow.

Positive vibe,s man