Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

NickDrake

Believe! We must believe

Rebelbrowser

darkman2 wrote: »

The GFS is good compared to the UKMO. A couple of potential snow events on the run too in the not too distant future. And it's very cold especially in the East.

Absolutely. guys here are getting influenced by other fora. in reliable time we have cold and a snow chance. ill take that anyway. lets worry about next weekend in about 4 days time

darkman2

I would recommend a gawk at the 12z GEM just to illustrate the point about uncertainty. This chart is code for "we have not got a clue" - take the shortwaves over the high or under the high?

compsys

200motels wrote: »

It looks like it's gone tits up on the last GFS run which is usually the best of there runs, it will get cold but not a sustained cold, the mild muck will be back by the weekend and bye bye winter and hello spring.

I'm always fascinated by people who think that cold weather in Ireland is only confined to the months of January and February and that once we reach early March it's simply too warm for snow. If only!

It's hardly like we live in some continental-type climate where temperatures start soaring once 'spring' comes. Temperatures in Ireland in early to mid March are almost the same as temperatures in mid December. So if anyone thinks 'spring' is on its way and that there's no hope at all now for snow is a little bit deluded in my opinion.

Indeed, with the Irish sea at its coldest in early March you could argue that the chances of snow are just as good at that time as any other in winter.

Remember, last 'summer' we got our warmest weather in late September. There's nothing to suggest therefore that we can't get our coldest part of 'winter' in late March. Regardless of what happens over the next week, statistically there's still plenty of chances for snow. I'm not saying that it's definitely going to happen, but I do wish people who keep saying: 'that's it, game over for snow', would stop - unless they have access to some long-range expert meteorological data that the rest of us don't have!

All I hope though is that we don't get a prolonged cold spell in April as that's really the time you want things to start warming up a bit.

nacho libre

the bad news is the gfs 12z isn't a mild outlier. at this range when two models are sync about the block being sunk, it's likely the ecm will follow it. I don't sees a sudden swing the other way at this stage. i'll be glad to be wrong if this happens. At least the gfs would deliver snow for some during the transition.

Kippure

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=


Ready to rock again. 10 minutes to go. Its ECM time.:eek:

nacho libre

just to inject a little more positivity, the gfs well in fi does suggest the potential for a reload. as does the ukmo outlook in their longer term outlook. so we just may get a second bite. even we don't, at least there is a good chance of frontal snow for some within the next seven days.

LEIN

Has anyone looked at the 12z Jet charts?

Kippure

Damo9090 wrote: »

Has anyone looked at the 12z Jet charts?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

darkman2

The UKMO seems at odds to me with the other Euro output, GFS and GEM at as little as 60hrs out. It could be a complete outlier in the short term. It also never brings sub -5c 850hpa temps into Ireland at any point which is also at odds with all the other output so far. In laymans terms it could be a dud run. Suppose we will find out soon enough!

DOCARCH

If the models can flip so dramatically in one run, they can just as easily flip back again. This is just one run. Need to look at the trend (over the next couple of runs).

LEIN

Kippure wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

Indeed, however by next Saturday it is back to full strength and steering mild muck and normal service resumes.

As mentioned it was one run and lets wait to see the 18z.

Kippure

Damo9090 wrote: »

Indeed, however by next Saturday it is back to full strength and steering mild muck and normal service resumes.

As mentioned it was one run and lets wait to see the 18z.

There,ll be dramatic changes over the next couple of days. I wouldnt be looking that far ahead.

LEIN

Hope your right K.

darkman2

It's small differences like this that make big differences down the line.


UKMO + 48hrs



ECM + 48hrs

darkman2

UKMO + 72hrs




Grrrrr:(


ECM + 72hrs






Brrrr:)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

+96



brrrrr

Musicman2000

God dam Meteociel slowing again:)

Kippure

If the Jet splits here,and enough energy goes into the southern arm, it could pull in a real strong east feed?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Looks to be going south at 120

darkman2

The ECM is fine and very cold up until next weekend (144hrs). Then it looks like following the UKMO. Broad support for sinking the block among the models now next weekend but still alot of chopping and changing to come.

force eleven

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

ECM 120. Not good for coldies.:(

Elmer Blooker

O dear!! The ECM and GFS are almost identical at 144, cant say I'm surprised to be honest, we needed low pressure to the south and there wasn't any.

boatbuilder

Sorry to jump in as a complete novice, but a lot of people are urging us to "look for trends" and not concentrate on one particular model run.

Surely the overall trend this winter has been that the Atlantic influence has won the battle every time cold threatened. I hate to say it, but personally I'm expecting further downgrades... too good to be true and all that...:)

Su Campu

It's possibly starting to look like I thought it would - a brief cold snap from the east and then upstream patterns bringing a return of the Atlantic. Still not set in stone of course, but the upper pattern would suggest the return of the NE Canadian / Greenland trough and a shift eastwards of the warm vs cold battleground, with the major cold over central to eastern Europe / western Russia.

At least though we'll have this good cold pool to our east, unlike the winter so far, so we may tap into that after say mid month. Interesting week ahead though.

nacho libre

With the big three agreeing, on the atlantic winning it's looks bleak now for the atlantic being held back. We just have to hope the transition is slower than the ukmo make out, if so there is a good chance of frontal snowfall for some during the transition. If only the scandi high could have marched another 100 mild westwards, what a difference that would have made to our prospects of the atlantic being sent packing!

Trogdor

ECM has a bit of a "reload" and another attempt at the cold pushing west later on the in run, this time with high pressure extending further over towards greenland as well. However when the charts are so uncertain at a very short range there is pretty much no point looking out this far, but i still think it is interesting to note.

Musicman2000

ECM not so bad in FI, there is no sign of blow torch sw's

nacho libre

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Feb 2012 to Monday 27 Feb 2012:

Some cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average at times. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times here. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average
Updated: 1212 on Sun 29 Jan 2012

Of course we could be on the mild side, but still it suggests at least the possibility that we may get another go.

Elmer Blooker

I think we will be in for a reload in a few weeks and this week's cold is just a taster for whats to come. This chart looks familiar (2 weeks before THE BIG ONE), its identical to what we've been looking at all week.