Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

Redsunset

Here is what all 50 members of the ECM show for midday Tuesday.
Some members show the snow threat low at a more favourable angle.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!48!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2012012912!!chart.gif

BLIZZARD7

To add to what trogdor has posted-

We should also be paying more attention to the parallel ensembles- they
Will be taking over from the main ones soon, same story with the op/control run too.

Only problem is I can only find the parallel ensembles for london so dont compare directly to the above^^



Here are the operational ensembles for london too- Amazing difference between The two!! Much closer agreement on the parallel ensembles




Haha Never noticed the snow risk percentage at the bottom before.

Dan

Trogdor

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

To add to what trogdor has posted-

We should also be paying more attention to the parallel ensembles- they
Will be taking over from the main ones soon, same story with the op/control run too.

Only problem is I can only find the parallel ensembles for london so dont compare directly to the above^^

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=1

Here are the operational ensembles for london too- Amazing difference between The two!! Much closer agreement on the parallel ensembles


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2808/graphe_ens3_mhz6.gif



Dan

This GFS Parellel is something i've compeltely missed out on! Had seen it mentioned before but never put any pass on it.

Here's the parallel ensembles for dublin, much nicer than the actual GEFS actually!


Ps
Couldn't actually find a direct link for the parallel ensembles but if you have a meteociel link for the normal GEFS adding "&runpara=1" without quotations to the end of the url will change it over the GEFS parallel

sdanseo

Changed URL so this is static. A bit FI at 5 days but looks good all the same.

M.T. Cranium

Recent map shows the extent of the bitterly cold "Siberian" air currently over eastern Poland and western Ukraine:

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/euisoTTPPWW00.gif

Anyone wanting to see six-hourly updates could take that link and just change the 00.gif to 06.gif etc, expect the updates to load around 2h30min after standard map times. In other words, if you want to see 06z then try this after 0830z.

Anyone expecting upgrades? I am, for it is my way.

mickger844posts

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Recent map shows the extent of the bitterly cold "Siberian" air currently over eastern Poland and western Ukraine:

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/euisoTTPPWW00.gif

Anyone wanting to see six-hourly updates could take that link and just change the 00.gif to 06.gif etc, expect the updates to load around 2h30min after standard map times. In other words, if you want to see 06z then try this after 0830z.

Anyone expecting upgrades? I am, for it is my way.

We don't have much longer to wait for the GFS 0Z so upgrades on the cards we hope. You mentioned the cold in Poland and the Ukraine and it sure is a deep pool spread over a wide area. Was checking the Wundermap just now and -16c in much of Poland and near -20c in Ukraine and also Lithuania.

mickger844posts

Out to 144 and this GFS run is way better than yesterday's 12z! Atlantic held at bay, Scandi high re-exerting itself. Overall a good run i would say. Get the cold in first then worry about snow potential

Edit:On the other hand UKMO 0Z run is not great with a warm up by weekend.

DOCARCH

00z GFS much better. Atlantic tries to break through next weekend - and it just about does (not as rampant as yesterday) but front falls apart over Ireland - we hang on to the colder air and the atlantic may just give us enough moisture for an epic snowstorm.

mickger844posts

ECM 0Z great up to 96hrs then the breakdown begins. UKMO and ECM similar with their 0Z runs.Mixed feelings about the big three 0Z runs. GFS by far the best overall.

Musicman2000

ECM fine till 96 hours, Then the atlantic comes crashing threw, UKMO the same story, GFS 00z not as bad as the European models holds the alantic back a bit longer, Not looking great so far come the weekend.

BLIZZARD7

Musicman2000 wrote: »

ECM fine till 96 hours, Then the atlantic comes crashing threw, UKMO the same story, GFS 00z not as bad as the European models holds the alantic back a bit longer, Not looking great so far come the weekend.

Met Eireann seem to havve gone with the gfs solution this morning! Lol

"Very cold, frosty, icy nights with temperatures plummeting to between -2 to -7 degrees and the danger of some freezing fog also. There is a good deal of uncertainty about the prospects for the following few days as there will be a battle going on between the very cold air coming from the east and the milder air coming in off the Atlantic. The latest indications suggest it will become less cold especially in western areas during Friday and Saturday with rain moving in off the Atlantic and spreading eastwards, however a danger exists that this could bring some snow further east if the cold air persists in more midland and eastern areas."

Looking very dodgy without ECM and UKMO on board for weekend though!




Dan

oterra

Next weekend is still way out in FI IMO. GFS alot better with the Atlantic weakening. I think a better picture will be had by Wednesday.
Remember the models don't determine the weather its the other way around, so all subject to change.

Redsunset

Ryan Maue
Very hard to find an ensemble from GFS or CMC over next 15- days that shows much warming in Europe. Temp composites:

http://policlimate.com/weather/ensemble/gens_swath_europe.html

200motels

oterra wrote: »

Next weekend is still way out in FI IMO. GFS alot better with the Atlantic weakening. I think a better picture will be had by Wednesday.
Remember the models don't determine the weather its the other way around, so all subject to change.

I agree totally, the weekend is too far away and the Atlantic is in a weak state, I think this will be a now cast. Interesting times ahead, but a least it's better than the mild muck.

average_runner

So is the risk of snow now gone for today and tomorrow?

If we were to get any when should it be expected? I know there is no sure answer.

Just to need know for work

Thanks.

darkman2

Hi,

This evening rain should turn to sleet in the East as temperatures fall away through the day. They are at the maximum for the day now and will drop to low single figures by nightfall. Sleet may turn to snow for a time tonight before clearing southwards tomorrow morning/afternoon. Very cold tonight in the East and North. Temperatures dropping to around freezing maybe a little above. Milder further West.

munsterlegend

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi,

This evening rain should turn to sleet in the East as temperatures fall away through the day. They are at the maximum for the day now and will drop to low single figures by nightfall. Sleet may turn to snow for a time tonight before clearing southwards tomorrow morning/afternoon. Very cold tonight in the East and North. Temperatures dropping to around freezing maybe a little above. Milder further West.

Just wondering DM2 what is your view of the models this morning?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Slight West shift here again

* May have a handful of straws

darkman2

munsterlegend wrote: »

Just wondering DM2 what is your view of the models this morning?

I'd go along word for word with what Met Éireann said. Seems a perfect summary to me. From now until Friday will be progressively colder - all models agree on that. Snow showers likely in the East and South facing coasts on Wednesday and Thursday. These could give a dusting or more due to icy conditions and light winds. Exceptionally cold nights - I think somewhere will get close to -10c in the second half of the week. Very severe frosts, snow event(s) possible next weekend.

GFS/GEM best output to support this. ECM in between. UKMO very progressive. Nothing nailed yet.

Rebelbrowser

Yeah there's a bit of a westward movement again on the 6z so far. Also just looking at the 6z precipitation so far, it looks pretty good for snow tomorrow in the east and south as the front drops sw and away. Do people think this is a possibility? ME etc talk of sleet etc but this looks like possibly the real deal. Would be great to start the spell with snow. With lying snow temps can drop far lower as far as I am aware.........

ninebeanrows

It is quite interesting that in the short term things are getting shifted further west.

Still no idea how things will progress near 108 onwards

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

It is quite interesting that in the short term things are getting shifted further west.

Still no idea how things will progress near 108 onwards

Don't knock it ! Changes in the reliable is what we need here

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Much better run, nice shift west in the cold

Harps

whataboutnow wrote: »

What are the prospects of rain turning to snow in eastern Donegal tonight?
cheers in advance

Chart for tomorrow shows a snow risk over Donegal but probably mainly over the hills, the usual roads like Barnesmore, Meenaroy etc could be effected but I wouldn't really expect much on lower ground. This week seems near impossible to give an accurate forecast for though so don't be too surprised if I'm wrong!



A considerable shift westward on the 06Z GFS, most of the country under -8C upper temps, east coast not far off -12C, gonna be an interesting week

ninebeanrows

6z is good in the shorter more reliable term.

Eastern England peeps will be happy!

mickger844posts

Another excellent GFS run. 0z and 6z similar but cold moving further West and deeper on the 6Z.I think its safe to say now that it will be a very interesting 4 or 5 days ahead. Lets see what the ECM and UKMO deliver later.

darkman2

GFS illustrates the risk again of possible snowfall event for next weekend if the cold air hangs on long enough.

rc28

mickger844posts wrote: »

Another excellent GFS run. 0z and 6z similar but cold moving further West and deeper on the 6Z.I think its safe to say now that it will be a very interesting 4 or 5 days ahead. Lets see what the ECM and UKMO deliver later.

Yes it seems to have become a trend for the cold to be getting further west and lasting longer into this weekend. It was only a few days ago that the cold spell this week was modelled to barely reach Ireland and since then the length of it keeps getting extended.

darkman2

Even out at 156hrs it's still hanging on. Very good run for coldies.

hotwhiskey

Four charts showing the drop off in temp as the week goes on. Taking each morning at 9am.



Wed 9am



Thurs 9am



Fri 9am




Looking good at the moment.