Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

darkman2

12z DWD has the -6c (850hpa) isotherm just off the East coast atm

cherryghost

12Z will be interesting. The current system approaching our shores will stall over over midlands and eastern countries, depending on how much cold could penetrate the milder air, we could have a good amount of snowfall on higher ground for sure.

The initial forecast is for sleet and wet snow on lower levels but I can see something a bit more for some eastern fringes. Temps and DP are both almost there, the system will be passing overnight so we could be in for lamp-post watching in the early hours

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hope this is ok to post in this thread !

What the radar says at the moment:



Red = Snow

Green = Sleet

mcriot29

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hope this is ok to post in this thread !

What the radar says at the moment:



Red = Snow

Green = Sleet

Heres what i dont get models show a lot colder air over uk london etc right now, yet the temp here in dub is the same as london and liverpool how can this be , makes no sense when models show far colder over some of uk now. Also how can the diffrent models show a huge diffrence in nao indexs gfs says plus 2 nao next week outher models say - 3 , this to me shows models are in a big mess

ninebeanrows

As expected the 12z seems to more similar to the 0z, everything backed 50/100 miles further east than the over keen 6z.

mcriot29

Weathercheck wrote: »

As expected the 12z seems to more similar to the 0z, everything backed 50/100 miles further east than the over keen 6z.

Not great news then if this keeps up on each run ireland never gets any cold over us, could it be the case all europe even spain are in deep cold and irelands on the mild side

ninebeanrows

12z doesn't build on the 6z unfortunately, infact it backs totally back.

Just at to T48 mind you.

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z doesn't build on the 6z unfortunately, infact it backs totally back.

Just at to T48 mind you.

No not as good, -8 uppers only hitting the east and south east and they are pulling back at 84hrs

pistolpetes11

The 12z is good bit further East on this Run,

Looks like the models indeed on dragging every little bit of Drama out of this setup :mad:

12z on top 6z on bottom T78

ninebeanrows

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The 12z is good bit further East on this Run,

Looks like the models indeed on dragging every little bit of Drama out of this setup :mad:

12z on top 6z on bottom T78

Can't see the Atlantic getting in though, ridge to west looks stronger.

darkman2

Looks quite a good run to me. Increasingly cold and signs the block may hold on.

highdef

Not looking good on this GFS run with the Atlantic and rain crossing the country during Sunday

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

Looks quite a good run to me. Increasingly cold and signs the block may hold on.

Cold doesn't quite make it to Ireland though, we need the get the pulse of cold uppers as far west early on if we are to make this work out well.

850hpas are not that low in Ireland while at -15c on the south coast of England.

cherryghost

Still extremely marginal though. Western counties look to be rotten out of luck, sleet at best. Midlands look a little more positive for possible snow showers from streamers, though I'm a little sceptical how intense the streamers will be. East coast still look to be in a great position for the coming days imo

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

Cold doesn't quite make it to Ireland though, we need the get the pulse of cold uppers as far west early on if we are to make this work out well.

850hpas are not that low in Ireland while at -15c on the south coast of England.

The thing is looking at the last few GFS runs the 12z is to progressive pushing everything east, the other GFS runs are pushing the cold further west.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Cold doesn't quite make it to Ireland though, we need the get the pulse of cold uppers as far west early on if we are to make this work out well.

850hpas are not that low in Ireland while at -15c on the south coast of England.

Cold does not quite make it to Ireland? Daytime temperatures around freezing, nighttime temperatures well below. Yes it is dry mostly but also it's very cold indeed at the surface. And the 850 temps are not bad in the East.

It's only one GFS op run. I don't think too much should be made of it atm in the medium term. If the UKMO is anything like it at 120hrs i'd be happy.

mcriot29

Enderman wrote: »

Still extremely marginal though. Western counties look to be rotten out of luck, sleet at best. Midlands look a little more positive for possible snow showers from streamers, though I'm a little sceptical how intense the streamers will be. East coast still look to be in a great position for the coming days imo

Are uk friends need to take note if that cold air does not reach ireland it wont last long there does to me shows nao is far too strong to keep cold air around for long, also each run the models are knocking cold air back more east if this keeps up the uk west wont see cold either

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

Are uk friends need to take note if that cold air does not reach ireland it wont last long there does to me shows nao is far too strong to keep cold air around for long, also each run the models are knocking cold air back more east if this keeps up the uk west wont see cold either

MOD NOTE :

As said earlier on this is a model discussion forum , but it would be helpful to all envolved if you were to post a few charts to back up your interpretations .

Cheers

pistolpetes11

That little bit of move of the cold earlier on has made quite a difference later on in the run with the cold much further east

6z T162 Top 12z Bottom (Both Somewhat in FI )

darkman2

UKMO looks to be going the same route as this morning. Some consistency there at least for a little bit milder weather to breakthrough next weekend. You would have to say it looks increasingly likely milder weather may have returned by next weekend. But it's not a done deal yet.

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

UKMO looks to be going the same route as this morning. Some consistency there at least for a little bit milder weather to breakthrough next weekend.

Yes UKM has Southwesterlies by Friday.

It has been very consistent. Fair play to it.

glimmerman123

darkman2 wrote: »

UKMO looks to be going the same route as this morning. Some consistency there at least for a little bit milder weather to breakthrough next weekend.

Evelyn Cusack said on the RTE weather at 3pm that is cold spell won't last very long with mild air moving in from the west next weekend and temps around 11c. :mad:

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes UKM has Southwesterlies by Friday.

It has been very consistent. Fair play to it.

Have to agree there, It could be a very short cold spell by the looks of things today.

Yahew

It looks like Ireland will be caught in the one piece of warm weather in Northern Hemisphere at that latitude. Parts of UK stlll in the freezer. Will it reload from the east?

NIALL D

Yahew wrote: »

It looks like Ireland will be caught in the one piece of warm weather in Northern Hemisphere at that latitude. Parts of UK stlll in the freezer. Will it reload from the east?

it will be fair depressing if that ends up been the outcome !!! :mad:

darkman2

For those who want "deep cold" we need the following

1. A good ECM run this evening

2. We need to see big changes tomorrow on the models within 96 hours. I'd say ignore the 18z tonight. It's irrelevant if the ECM is backing the UKMO/GEM solution. The 00z's I suspect will put an end to the speculation one way or another.

In conclusion increasingly very cold but dry this week with an increasing chance of much milder weather by the weekend with only transition snow for a few hours if even that. Still time for things to improve but that's the way it looks right now.

Nabber

GME is quite decent. It also has the Russian high building up to 1064.

Ireland is the battle ground for sure. Whether hot or cold wins, who knows. Interesting all the same. All eyes on the Atlantic now.

aboyro

that siberian high is just awesome, how could the atlantic possibly penetrate it

Eastcoastryan

Jesus, the rollercoaster never ends.. :eek:

Anyobody want to make a punt at what we might be looking at over the next 24/48 hours, everyone seems to be looking further ahead, something might sneak up without us noticing!!!

Musicman2000

Not a great ECM 12z, ok for the east up until 72hours after that the Milder air starts to push in.