Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

mickger844posts

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest GFS does not appear to be the last minute upgrade we were hoping for

Very similar to the 0Z run so far anyway.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

If anything the cold is more east at +60 :mad:

ninebeanrows

Yes 6z is very poor, shows no trough disruption that is needed and is very akin to the very poor ECM OP.

Time to pack it in now i think.

We won't even get -6's over us at this stage :eek::D:(

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes 6z is very poor, shows no trough disruption that is needed and is very akin to the very poor ECM OP.

Time to pack it in now i think.

We won't even get -6's over us at this stage :eek::D:(

It is truly a woeful run :mad:

mickger844posts

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes 6z is very poor, shows no trough disruption that is needed and is very akin to the very poor ECM OP.

Time to pack it in now i think.

We won't even get -6's over us at this stage :eek::D:(

GFS 06Z a further downgrade, as Weathercheck said we barely get -6 uppers.

ninebeanrows

Somebody get the bucket!

rc28

Very dissappointing but you really can only laugh when the downgrades get this bad At least europe is very cold and I'm optimistic there will be more chances in February.

200motels

t|nt|n wrote: »

It is truly a woeful run :mad:

Alas I think it's game over for the time been, I have to admit I called it wrong last night as I thought a weak Atlantic couldn't move such an impressive block that easily, seems it will and I don't understand why?

ninebeanrows

200motels wrote: »

Alas I think it's game over for the time been, I have to admit I called it wrong last night as I thought a weak Atlantic couldn't move such an impressive block that easily, seems it will and I don't understand why?

What is so disappointing about the 6z was the fact the ECM Ensembles had so much hope, this follows the ECM OP which was in the worst 5 percentile.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

What is so disappointing about the 6z was the fact the ECM Ensembles had so much hope, this follows the ECM OP which was in the worst 5 percentile.

Would it be foolish to wait for the 12z ECM before calling it ? Seeing as the Ensembles had hope..

ninebeanrows

t|nt|n wrote: »

Would it be foolish to wait for the 12z ECM before calling it ? Seeing as the Ensembles had hope..

It is probably too late. The changes are occurring within T72hrs. I would wait until then but i would have little hope, the likely scenario is the 12z builds on the 6z further east, as it is usually more progressive than the other 3 GFS runs.

So i would imagine the 12z would be worse than the 6z. However that is just supposition.

But yea the 12z will shed more light.

oterra

I think one of the problems is that some of us(including myself) have a scenario, an outcome in our minds. When a model run comes close to what we want, we tend to latch on. The downgrades come and send the forum into turmoil, for some! At least the rain has stopped and it is actually cold!

ninebeanrows

Has to be a mild outlier though.

Just look at this horror show!

rc28

It's almost astonishing how quickly the atlantic just bulldozes through the extreme cold to its east. Reminds me of St Stephens Day 2010 when everyone thought the atlantic couldn't possibly break though such a strong block of cold as quick as was being modelled...but it did.

Edit: Weathercheck - I agree, the 06z has to be something of a mild outlier at least.

rc28

Perhaps this is clutching at straws but the very well respected 'Glacier Point' on Netweather (he has a very good record of forecasting far in advance including this winter) had this to say this morning:

I would steer clear of all operational output at the moment, chaos reigns with an attempt to break down a cold block and then throw in a possible pattern change in the offing within 10-15 days. Stick with your ensemble means..

AO becoming very negative manifested in an Arctic High.

Scandinavian ridge being replaced by a mean trough solution as a strong ridge develops in the mid Atlantic (maybe a touch progressive with the transfer and I suspect the ridge to our NE won't want to go quietly.

Europe remains in the freezer, UK and Ireland on the fringe but probably joining in the cold fun as the trough begins to fully develop and back west. That's after the growing potential for something white this weekend.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Has to be a mild outlier though.

Just look at this horror show!

Ensembles will be interesting !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Control run seems to be headed the same direction

ninebeanrows

6z Ensembles aren't good.

One or two show what is needed for us.

Onto the 12zs

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Mild for the OP and Control ?

darkman2

Pretty good agreement this morning for the initial attack of cold air to break down before the end of the week. However as has been pointed out the door is open for another opportunity next week. Over the next few nights very cold, frosty and icy (temperatures between -3 and -5c generally). Little in the way of sleet or snow showers except maybe on exposed East or South coasts. Then an unceremonious return to Atlantic weather on Friday but for how long? It could be temporary. It could also see out the core of winter. If we are to get another shot we need to see more solid signs of it within a few days.

Don't be too disappointed. It's just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Hopefully another chance within the week.

There is also a chance of snow on either Friday or Saturday as the milder air tries to break through. I'd say maybe 70 - 30 against. But there is a risk.

Musicman2000

Posted by Gp over on Netweather


I would steer clear of all operational output at the moment, chaos reigns with an attempt to break down a cold block and then throw in a possible pattern change in the offing within 10-15 days. Stick with your ensemble means..

AO becoming very negative manifested in an Arctic High.

Scandinavian ridge being replaced by a mean trough solution as a strong ridge develops in the mid Atlantic (maybe a touch progressive with the transfer and I suspect the ridge to our NE won't want to go quietly.

Europe remains in the freezer, UK and Ireland on the fringe but probably joining in the cold fun as the trough begins to fully develop and back west. That's after the growing potential for something white this weekend.

darkman2

Latest UKMO fax chart for Friday. Snow for a time midlands and east on this evidence on this model.



The cold air it's running in to.

Davaeo09

darkman2 wrote: »

Latest UKMO fax chart for Friday. Snow for a time midlands and east on this evidence on this model.



The cold air it's running in to.

When do these models become reliable? Are they too far out to base any real hope on yet?

Harps

Don't see why anyone is surprised when the ECMWF has been pretty consistent for the past few days in any real cold stalling on the east coast, I'd always trust it far more than the GFS. No major change anyway other than maybe a couple of degrees warmer but the week is much the same as was being progged yesterday with temps around 3-5C during the day and hard frosts at night. No real signs of a quick reload yet but we'll see.

Lovely day today anyway, great to wake up to blue skies and the ground surface is actually starting to dry up :eek:

nacho libre

encouraging sign for the future- we may have to look north for a second bite of the cherry. let's just hope the bane of our existence(the azores high) finally does the decent thing and fecks off north westwards!

in the meantime after the possible brief frontal snow, it looks like there is going to be a few very mild days. i really hope it's a case of good things come to those who are patient! - a reload can take a bit of time.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The mighty GME brings things back west, only goes out to +72

cherryghost

Jumping the gun a bit but 12Z is just rolling now, the very first chart has brough back -6 uppers to the east coast. Colder air looks a bit more 'together' than the previous run. Let's hope it continues a nice trend here.

Milder air looks a bit weaker on the atlantic. Might get somewhere this afternoon

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Enderman wrote: »

Jumping the gun a bit but 12Z is just rolling now, the very first chart has brough back -6 uppers to the east coast. Colder air looks a bit more 'together' than the previous run. Let's hope it continues a nice trend here.

The angle of the cold coming in looks better at +12

yorlum11

t|nt|n wrote: »

The angle of the cold coming in looks better at +12

Looks like its 6 hrs further west than the previous run

Tom Cruises Left Nut

For what it is worth the precip charts show something for this evening on the east