Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

ninebeanrows

Clutch my straws.

GFS 12z slightly further northwest at T30.

Really thought it is probably a lost cause at this stage!

It might be more positive as usually the 12z deepens lows and is the most progressive of the GFS 4 suites.

I must leave now so somebody post some charts on here for my travels!

mickger844posts

A slightly better run so far with everything moved that little bit further West. Nothing to get excited about though.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Definite shift west here, will be good to see what ECM and UKMO do with it

Iancar29

Factors a just SLIGHTLY better imo for some snow flurries later. With a gusty breeze in our favour some showers hopefully start popping up in the next hour or 2 if all goes well.



WE still need more colder air over us here in the east, current temp in DUblin averaging at 3 / -1 dp .

Showers that do pop up will tend to be short lived.

darkman2

Just a quick post from me.

Both NOGAPS and GEM show undercutting potential prolonging the cold snap beyond the weekend.

UKMO/GFS ending it by the end of the week.

I'll be back for the ECM later. I don't expect much tbh.

TheMilkyPirate

Deeeeeep FI is interesting :pac:

Snowmaker

Iancar29 wrote: »

Factors a just SLIGHTLY better imo for some snow flurries later. With a gusty breeze in our favour some showers hopefully start popping up in the next hour or 2 if all goes well.

Fingers crossed! The DP on the M2 buoy has dropped from -0.3 this morning to -1.5 at the moment, wind 14kts and sea temp of 9.3C ... humidity is only 64% but possibly a few small streamers could develop in that sort of set-up? Only relevant/interesting for east coast though at this stage.. Currently 3C in Malahide on the coast so wouldn't mind waiting at least another 2 hours for the temp to drop a bit and make it less of a sleety affair... lamp-posts at the ready! God I need some snow!

ninebeanrows

Out to T72, the ECM is actually alot better than this morning.

Although things are more than likely too far gone at this stage.

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

Out to T72, the ECM is actually alot better than this morning.

Although things are more than likely too far gone at this stage.

Looks better but as you said I think its time to throw in the towel on this one:( Time to look to mid Feb:)

darkman2

ECM is very cold in the East through to Saturday at least. Risk of an undercut at 96hrs? Synoptically till 96hrs the best of the 12z models.



ooooh almost! Anyone ask for snow?







(Wet) Snow/sleet in the East very probable on those charts as a front stalls over that part of the country.

ECM keeps it cold through to Sunday.

davidsr20

baraca wrote: »

Deeeeeep FI is interesting :pac:

If u want a fantasy go asleep and have a dream , I really don't get all this fantasy island charts,most of us live in the real world so why do we have treads intitled let's pretend it's going to snow(FI)

I just don't get it

patneve2

Unfortunately at this stage we have to stop hoping for a turn around, its just not going to happen. Okay, they are tiny west shifts on the model runs, but whether we like it or not, the Atlantic is going to move in over the weekend and the cold air will be a distant memory. I'm a bit upset about all of this, history will be made in Europe in the following days (quite possibly also in parts of N Africa) and we will be spectators, watching it all with anger :P ...anyways, enjoy the cold and the possible 1 or 2 grapuel showers

TheMilkyPirate

davidsr20 wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

Deeeeeep FI is interesting :pac:

If u want a fantasy go asleep and have a dream , I really don't get all this fantasy island charts,most of us live in the real world so why do we have treads intitled let's pretend it's going to snow(FI)

I just don't get it

Relax, It's a bit of eye candy.

patneve2

ECM 120 hrs isn't that bad though

ninebeanrows

ECM knocks a trough through the Irish sea southwards.

Not there yet but 100-200 miles further east and it is a snowfest for the eastern areas of Ireland.

ECM presents a straw at T120

davidsr20

baraca wrote: »

davidsr20 wrote: »

Relax, It's a bit of eye candy.

I get it now thanks

Kippure

God the atlantic has a face that looks like its going to swallow the cold...:D

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM knocks a trough through the Irish sea southwards.

Not there yet but 100-200 miles further east and it is a snowfest for the eastern areas of Ireland.

ECM presents a straw at T120

Critical thing here is it prolongs the cold till Sunday. Those charts would probably bring snow for a time then sleety wet snow. It is a straw. Check out the GEM for the same time for another straw.;)

At 144hrs the Atlantic is well in but not much point looking that far ahead. In terms of potential frontal snow this weekend the ECM is a slight upgrade for us overall.

TheMilkyPirate

Kippure wrote: »

God the atlantic has a face that looks like its going to swallow the cold...:D

And a bad haircut to boot.

Much better ECM out to 120h. Goes along with the GEM.

Not

davidsr20 wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

I get it now thanks

Anyone noticed the nested quotations seem to be attributing quotes to the wrong people ?

hotwhiskey

The ECM has delayed warm front by has much 24hrs compared to GFS/UKMO interesting! ECM and GEM singing from the same hyme sheet.

Sponge Bob

I was more interested in how the extent of the cold was being modelled by the ECM for Thursday than anything else and promised a revisit when I last posted on this yesterday evening.

The latest ECM appears to halt the upper cold in the same place as the 0z ECM..both 100 miles east of its extent in the 12z ECM on Monday. I am showing Thursday 1800

Here is the ECM Run on Monday 12z showing the 850 temps Thursday 1800



Here is the ECM Run on Tuesday 0z showing the 850 temps Thursday 1800



Here is the ECM Run on Tuesday 12z showing the 850 temps Thursday 1800.

darkman2

Here comes the Northerly on the ECM (192hrs). This could become a trend on the other models if they pick up retrogression signals.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

And here it is !

Su Campu

Soundings from England and the near Continent upstream today show some limited scope for showery development in the coming days, with increasingly drier air and an increasing inversion putting a cap on much of the convection.

At the moment I would estimate that, given the 9-10 °C sea temperature, a sea track of at least 100 km will be required for enough sensible heat and moisture flux to generate anything other than some stratocumulus sheets at around 4-5000 ft, and even then the vertical extent of showers will be limited to below 10,000 ft. We could probably rule out showers for much of the east coast, with the south and southeast, as well as maybe northern Leinster and east Ulster coasts, getting anything decent.

M.T. Cranium

Rather speculative, but there may be shades of the 1933 sequence here, cold end of January, very mild for about a week, then back to a cold pattern that ended with a major cutoff low snowfall event in Ireland (24th).

My research index values peak strongly for warmth on several occasions in February but it appears that the slow development of blocking may be a factor that will drain out through this strong signal and if it gets a chance to gain a foothold later, it could be another major cold signal of 3-5 days.

So in other words, could be a bit of a roller coaster ride in February once we get through this 3-day cold spell. Model tendencies at 12z are towards a more stubborn presence of cold air in southeast England and the near continent, which was not unexpected so forecast philosophy has not changed as much as the maps are changing. The ECM may be a bit light on gradient following the breakdown in comparison to other solutions. Of course, the lighter this gradient, the more chance cold air has to hang around where sheltered from scouring effects. Thus Saturday could be quite a mixed up mess of weather regimes locally especially if any snow cover gets laid down on Friday. Weathercheck's forecast over in that thread handles some of these possibilities in addition to what I had mentioned earlier.

darkman2

MT, what's your thoughts on the retrogression scenario on the 12z ECM run?

Musicman2000

The silence in here says it all, 18z not good, Anyone have a holiday booked in the med? bring your gloves:)

delw

i know it's FI but it's even game over for the UK

esposito

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The silence in here says it all, 18z not good, Anyone have a holiday booked in the med? bring your gloves:)

What did we do to deserve this?! :eek: