Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

nacho libre

Well there is definitely encouraging signs in the longer term that the cold may return after a few milder days. The ECM seems to be responding to the teleconnections at last by depicting height rises in the mid atlantic eventually making it to Greenland - this reflects Stuart Rampling's thoughts. The GFS also suggests colder weather will return after a brief milder period. The uk met office outlook has the same view

I know people will be disheartened and dismissive after all the model watching of the past week, but, all in all, there is grounds for optimism that we'll get another opportunity.
We just need to see these runs being shown consistently for a few days in row

Rebelbrowser

nacho libre wrote: »

Well there is definitely encouraging signs in the longer term that the cold may return after a few milder days. The ECM seems to be responding to the teleconnections at last by depicting height rises in the mid atlantic eventually making it to Greenland - this reflects Stuart Rampling's thoughts. The GFS also suggests colder weather will return after a brief milder period. The uk met office outlook has the same view

I know people will be disheartened and dismissive after all the model watching of the past week, but, all in all, there is grounds for optimism that we'll get another opportunity.
We just need to see these runs being shown consistently for a few days in row

Hey Nacho, just looked at GFS and ECM there. I'm not very good with models but it seems to me that even if the cold plunge from the north arrives in 10 days time it will miss us and go East into Germany again. Am I misreading this?

Separately the maps of Europe as modelled for Saturday are depressing.....

Harps

Yep depressing viewing this morning, the Azores High goes into complete overdrive. Right out to 240h on the ECMWF it's giving us a wonderful mild, wet and grey first half to February



By no means set in stone obviously but not the best of runs it must be said!

ninebeanrows

Some desperate charts this morning showing a slightly displaced azores high will mild westerlies in the mid term.

Looks like winter is running out.

Enjoy your frost tonight!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

It really is terrible, woke up with such hope then saw the charts and nearly had a little cry !

WC - Whats your thoughts on the possible northerly shown up yesterday ?

ninebeanrows

t|nt|n wrote: »

It really is terrible, woke up with such hope then saw the charts and nearly had a little cry !

WC - Whats your thoughts on the possible northerly shown up yesterday ?

The PV has refused to shunt from Greenland all winter. It as at times tried to and the charts are starting to show this in the later FI, but in reality i find it hard to think the PV will be moved sufficiently out of Greenland to enable a strong northerly, perhaps a toppler is more likely.

Rebelbrowser

Weathercheck wrote: »

The PV has refused to shunt from Greenland all winter. It as at times tried to and the charts are starting to show this in the later FI, but in reality i find it hard to think the PV will be moved sufficiently out of Greenland to enable a strong northerly, perhaps a toppler is more likely.

Sorry, stupid question but......I see the word "toppler" used all the time on NW too. Cad e?

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

Yep depressing viewing this morning, the Azores High goes into complete overdrive. Right out to 240h on the ECMWF it's giving us a wonderful mild, wet and grey first half to February

Can't wait!

ECMWF ensembles hinting towards the same more or less with weak fronts passing by from time to time with near average temps overall.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M&ob=av3e

cherryghost

Dear lord what did we do to deserve THIS?

Snowmaker

Enderman wrote: »

Dear lord what did we do to deserve THIS?

Set up a Winter Thread in June and spent money on an extra 80000 tons of salt & grit.

weatherfiend

t|nt|n wrote: »

It really is terrible, woke up with such hope then saw the charts and nearly had a little cry !

WC - Whats your thoughts on the possible northerly shown up yesterday ?

woke up this morning and my baby was gone........:(

Tom Cruises Left Nut

DOn't mean to backseat mod here but this ain't the chat thread !

pistolpetes11

MOD NOTE

This is a thread for discussion about about models / charts only, any other non related posts will be met with infractions , take this as the final warning , all non related posts will be deleted also

blackius

Regarding the nonsense being posted about there being no snow in England this weekend,I would suggest we read Liam Duttons blog

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/ding-ding-mild-air-cold-air/482


It's a good summary of where the models stand in relation to the snow there

"
One of the weather computer models called the GFS (Global Forecast System) which is run by NOAA in the US is not keen on that much snow here in the UK.
It predicts a band of snow moving in during Saturday night, with most places having a few centimetres. However, it quickly turns it back to rain with a thaw setting in on Sunday as milder air floods in from the west.
Another weather computer model called the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is keen to produce a lot more snow, predicting that most places could see 5-10cm, locally more by the end of Sunday.
It is also in favour of the cold air hanging on for longer, hence why it is keen to predict more snow.
So at this stage the weekend could potentially bring a spell of snow, but it is worth emphasising that it is still four days away and a lot can change between now and then."

Min

blackius wrote: »

Regarding the nonsense being posted about there being no snow in England this weekend,I would suggest we read Liam Duttons blog

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/ding-ding-mild-air-cold-air/482


It's a good summary of where the models stand in relation to the snow there

"
One of the weather computer models called the GFS (Global Forecast System) which is run by NOAA in the US is not keen on that much snow here in the UK.
It predicts a band of snow moving in during Saturday night, with most places having a few centimetres. However, it quickly turns it back to rain with a thaw setting in on Sunday as milder air floods in from the west.
Another weather computer model called the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is keen to produce a lot more snow, predicting that most places could see 5-10cm, locally more by the end of Sunday.
It is also in favour of the cold air hanging on for longer, hence why it is keen to predict more snow.
So at this stage the weekend could potentially bring a spell of snow, but it is worth emphasising that it is still four days away and a lot can change between now and then."

The UKMO agree with this, they say there is a lot of uncertainty. There is still a conflict on what will happen in the UK.
The UK met are not clear on what the models are telling them so they gave two forecasts for the weekend, a mild one where there is a short period of snow which changes to rain and mild air winning out, and a cold forecast where it snows but stays snowing rather than turning to rain with the cold hanging on.
So the experts in the UK are still unsure.

cherryghost

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Stop acting like a child!

Laughable. It was an ironic and sarcastic comment, get over it.

On topic, today's charts will probably be the final nail in the coffin for the week (or not if something miraculous happens :P) DP drops off early Friday so any precip over the weekend will more than likely be rain, perhaps some sleet on the east coast.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

GME still giving some hope ?

Sponge Bob

Pushback is more pronounced in the 12z

Sub 48 hours.

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Hey Nacho, just looked at GFS and ECM there. I'm not very good with models but it seems to me that even if the cold plunge from the north arrives in 10 days time it will miss us and go East into Germany again. Am I misreading this?

Separately the maps of Europe as modelled for Saturday are depressing.....

Yes they don't look great today. However often before we get a greenie high, there is milder weather for several days.
The northern hemisphere profile doesn't support the idea of a resurgent polar vortex- Although we could be screwed by a unfavourable split of the vortex by day 10.
That's the thing about blocking, we can get a split vortex, but if it doesn't locate in the right area, blocking then setups in the wrong place from our perspective.
The gfs modelling of this split is not what we want to see as it means a section of the vortex plants itself over Greenland.
The ecm modelling of it is what we want to see happening, but it's a more complicated route to cold.
I'm not willing to give up the ghost, until we see what happens from day 10-15 on the ecm model.
If the azore high shows no signs of retrogressing towards Greenland over that period, then it may well be game over in terms of prolonged cold.

opr

I don't see much of a difference, it looks broadly similar to the previous run

Opr

darkman2

Hi guys,

Same as you were on the models. Not much change at all. The Atlantic is temporarily coming back. However there are increasing signs that maybe an Easterly of some sort will return in the next week. Early days but we are not getting rid of the block to the East anytime soon and it could assert influence again. Of course there is also the chance Atlantic Westerlies will win out in the medium term (5 - 7 days) but it's not as certain as it looked yesterday.

Note the UKMO 12z.



And the GFS 12z




Be interesting to see the ECM later. It's not over yet;)

Eastcoastryan

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi guys,

Same as you were on the models. Not much change at all. The Atlantic is temporarily coming back. However there are increasing signs that maybe an Easterly of some sort will return in the next week. Early days but we are not getting rid of the block to the East anytime soon and it could assert influence again. Of course there is also the chance Atlantic Westerlies will win out in the medium term (5 - 7 days) but it's not as certain as it looked yesterday.

Note the UKMO 12z.



And the GFS 12z




Be interesting to see the ECM later. It's not over yet;)

I'm beginning to think a NE is what we need, this "Easterly" was a disaster!!

darkman2

ECM @ 120hrs




Up till then Ireland will still be cold by day but particularly at night. Some rain and sleet on Saturday. Still subzero temperatures at night. But crucially the block is still there to the East. So it can't be ruled out that we will get another shot.

darkman2

ECM @ 144hrs



The more it goes on the more it backs my thinking that maybe far from the Atlantic powering through it could be held off. Time to get on the rollercoaster again.:)

Fluffycloud

:DOoooooo fingers crossed! Oh happy I would be to see snow falling!!!!

Kippure

As, miley in Glenroe use to say "My god".

Which model is right? I havent a clue. All that can be said is the cold to the east isnt a push over.

Harps

Can't imagine many people in Europe will be too happy with the 12Z ECMWF, extreme cold hanging around for at least another 10 days and going nowhere fast after that. Far better than this mornings run for us but considering the large differences there's no point in reading anything into it

TheMilkyPirate

Harps wrote: »

Can't imagine many people in Europe will be too happy with the 12Z ECMWF, extreme cold hanging around for at least another 10 days and going nowhere fast after that. Far better than this mornings run for us but considering the large differences there's no point in reading anything into it

The difference from run to run at this stage are ridiculous, For all we know we could be buried in a foot of snow by Monday. Interesting to see the ECM and UKMO shifting the pattern west, I'm on my phone so can't link to the latest FAX but the difference from yesterday is unreal.

Musicman2000

The UKMO 12z showed the cold fighting back today and now the ECM 12z, could it be pushed back even further:) Will Met Eireann have egg on their faces? Because the UKMET keep saying they havnt a clue whats going to happen the weekend, Its either going to get mild or stay cold http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16821819

ninebeanrows

Well ECM is probably the most optimistic and probably will be the furthest west of its suite.

However we would only need a 100/150 mile shift west of the cold pool @ 72hrs to create a snowy scenario for the east coast during Saturday.

So chances have decreased since yesterday but certainly increased from this morning to around 10-15%