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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

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    #932
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    baraca wrote: »
    Why is the DWD also known as the GME?
    DWD stands for Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) but the name of the model is GME (Globalmodell). DWD run the GME


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    #933
    whataboutnow
    Registered Users Posts: 107 ✭✭whataboutnow


    Su Campu wrote: »
    DWD stands for Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) but the name of the model is GME (Globalmodell). DWD run the GME

    Hi,What is your latest opinion for the rest of this months cold weather prospects.thanks in advance


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    #934
    oterra
    Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    Gfs and Ecm edging towards a Scandi high establishing over the next 6-8 days?


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    #935
    To Alcohol
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    whataboutnow wrote: »
    Su Campu wrote: »
    DWD stands for Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) but the name of the model is GME (Globalmodell). DWD run the GME

    Hi,What is your latest opinion for the rest of this months cold weather prospects.thanks in advance[/Quote

    No chance. mild and damp from here on unfortunately. the Atlantic is full steam ahead. No current charts for the rest of the winter really support any cold that could deliver snow.

    Its been a disaster for snow lovers.


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    #936
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    whataboutnow wrote: »

    Hi,What is your latest opinion for the rest of this months cold weather prospects.thanks in advance[/Quote

    No chance. mild and damp from here on unfortunately. the Atlantic is full steam ahead. No current charts for the rest of the winter really support any cold that could deliver snow.

    Its been a disaster for snow lovers.

    Very misleading- The atlantic is anything but full steam ahead!!? Show me a chart with a strong jet that isnt in lala land?? And there are plenty of charts to support a very cold spell developing sometime in Feb! :)




    Dan :)


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    #937
    percy100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16 ✭percy100


    Hi All, Have been watching these threads all winter... havent posted anything because I aint that weather data savvy (yet!) Could someone please post the absolute basic conditions for snow? ( dew point, pressure, temp etc) I got a weather station for xmas and I want to start putting it to some serious use!! :) Cheers folks


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    #938
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    No great shakes this morning.

    Breakdown firmed up, for Ireland anyway ;)

    Hard frost tonight.

    Temperatures upto 3-6c tomorrow.

    Cooling down in the evening.

    Rain spreading from the west late evening and overnight.

    Falling as sleet or snow in the north midlands and Ulster for a short time.


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    #939
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,164 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    percy100 wrote: »
    Hi All, Have been watching these threads all winter... havent posted anything because I aint that weather data savvy (yet!) Could someone please post the absolute basic conditions for snow? ( dew point, pressure, temp etc) I got a weather station for xmas and I want to start putting it to some serious use!! :) Cheers folks

    Percy, have a looked at some of the pinned/stickied threads above, particularly the "Beginners Guide to reading...." one. Has all of this.


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    #940
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Just as a little aside (mods, scold/ban me if you must), but yesterday was the first day since the 22nd of July 2011 (225 days ago) when no, or at most, trace, precipitation was recorded at any of the met eireann's hourly reporting synoptic stations as on the latest and yesterday's weather page:

    http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

    although Dunsany, which only reports on a daily basis, did report 0.1mm on the 22nd of July last.

    Frontal analysis for the 22nd July at noon. Ireland lay under a slack ridge:

    191047.png


    Model outlook wise, looks like the ECMWF is sticking to its guns and keeping us dominated by Atlantic ridges with the odd flirt with a weak front or two for the foreseeable.

    168hrs chart:
    191048.png

    And if that isn't exciting enough, temps look to be around average for the time of year as well.


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    #941
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    12Z rolling out. Cold looks a little more pronounced and the atlantic air mass looks suppressed a little. Looks like there might be a small delay on the incoming systems. Lets see how the rest roll out


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    #942
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Enderman wrote: »
    12Z rolling out. Cold looks a little more pronounced and the atlantic air mass looks suppressed a little. Looks like there might be a small delay on the incoming systems. Lets see how the rest roll out

    Small shifts alright, what this mean down the line lets see !


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    #943
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,519 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWvrg6EdMSU


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    #944
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,134 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Bit of a stall on the system but nothing drastic. About a 10% chance of snowfall before turning to rain VERY quickly :P


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    #945
    rc28
    Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    Potential for a huge amount of snow from this weekend on into next week for certain parts of England if the GFS 12z verifies; I'd say their metoffice is getting very worried - will be a nightmare to forecast.

    Even though we won't be getting anything out of this, it's good to see the cold block over Europe holding its ground this much.


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    #946
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    12 UKMO 144hrs. I go back to what I was saying yesterday. The block to the East is not going anywhere and it's not beyond possibility we could get another shot at an Easterly next week.

    UW144-21.GIF?02-17


    UN144-21.GIF?02-17

    Let's see if the trend continues.


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    #947
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Not too dissimilar to my recent post in the FI thread from the GFS Control run for Saturday next week... snowlercoaster tickets anyone?!


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    #948
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    GFS control run going for undercutting low as early as 114hrs


    gens-0-1-114.png?12


    gens-0-0-132.png?12


    Big moment I think. May be the start of a broader swing in the models. Re-establish the block and the jet stream plays ball for an undercutting Atlantic low. Weathercheck will be happy ;)

    EDIT: MANY of the ensemble members support this at around 120hrs.


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    #949
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Models have changed big time this afternoon for the timeframe 96 - 120hrs. GEM 12z going for undercutting aswell now by 144hrs. Increasingly likely we will have an Easterly next week if this trend continues. GFS/GEM and UKMO all going that direction. ECM will be interesting later.


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    #950
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Hopefully it is a trend its torcher watching nearly everywhere in Europe getting decent snow falls apart from our little island.


    No there has been a definate shift. This time next week I suspect you will not be feeling left.;)


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    #951
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    darkman2 wrote: »
    GFS control run going for undercutting low as early as 114hrs


    Darkman, what is the GFS 'control run' and how does it differ from its operational output? I genuinely am clueless on this. :o


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    #952
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Here's the GEM with that undercutting low at 144h

    2ajtcur.png


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    #953
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    darkman2 wrote: »
    No there has been a definate shift. This time next week I suspect you will not be feeling left.;)

    Fingers crossed your are right about the shift looking at the UKMO 12z run, Sunday is looking a lot colder than what Met Eireann are predicting.

    UN72-7.GIF?02-17


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    #954
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Darkman, what is the GFS 'control run' and how does it differ from its operational output? I genuinely am clueless on this. :o

    Woot:eek:

    Ok, well i'm no expert in the intricacies of computer modelling but the operational run is the highest resolution run and takes conditions as they are at 00hrs. The control run is the key run of 20 members in the ensemble suite of the GFS because it also takes conditions as they are at 00hrs. All the 21 ensemble members, including the control run, are run at a lower resolution. The difference between the control run and the other 20 ensemble members is that the others use a different initial condition and therefore send out slightly different outcomes initially which get wider as the time period extends (+96, +120 etc). The control run is basically a lower resolution run that uses the same starting point as the operational run whereas the rest of the suite does not. So in theory at least the control run should normally be in sync with the operational run broadly. When they diverge at such an early stage so dramatically you can tell something is up.


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    #955
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Folks a few GFS ensembles show this type of set up at T96

    Absolutely ludicrous

    gens-6-1-96.png?12


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    #956
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Woot:eek:.

    Well explained DM, nice one! The control run is something I have never looked at before myself but at least now I know what it is and what to consider when others refer to them. :)


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    #957
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECM at T48, appears to be saying no to major clawback!


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    #958
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Lots of the ensembles showing some serious cold over Ireland. Very interesting change from previous recent runs.

    gens160174.png

    gens60132.png

    gens50162.png

    gens30138.png

    gens20162.png


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    #959
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM @ 120hrs

    Recm1201.gif


    EDIT: does not quite make it at 144hrs. In fact it's a bit of a mess.


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    #960
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    darkman2 wrote: »
    ECM @ 120hrs

    Recm1201.gif


    Should undercut from the Atlantic. *I hope I have not jinxed it!

    When you talk about the undercut , are we looking for that little low to do something like this ?

    191114.png


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    #961
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,012 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    More to the NE pete, Along the direction of the bay of biscay or the channel


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