Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

darkman2

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

When you talk about the undercut , are we looking for that little low to do something like this ?

Yeah - slide Southeastward just to the west of Ireland. Not that particular one but we need a cut off shortwave from that depression in the Atlantic. Doesn't happen on this occasion - too much energy in the Northern arm of the jet. Still the other models show it as a real possibility. Something to watch.

Su Campu

I'm not convinced about an easterly reforming as I don't think it will receive enough of a feed of heights northeastwards from the Atlantic to sustain it. I think the NW Atlantic trough is just far enough away. If it retreats a bit more then we might see the Azores high follow it a bit and build northwards, which may then allow something to slide in from the north. We need to watch what happens with the developing poleward flow over in MT's area and what happens with that air over the Pole.

I would be siding towards a northerly rather than an easterly towards mid month. After that it's anyone's guess.....

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

I'm not convinced about an easterly reforming as I don't think it will receive enough of a feed of heights northeastwards from the Atlantic to sustain it. I think the NW Atlantic trough is just far enough away. If it retreats a bit more then we might see the Azores high follow it a bit and build northwards, which may then allow something to slide in from the north. We need to watch what happens with the developing poleward flow over in MT's area and what happens with that air over the Pole.

I would be siding towards a northerly rather than an easterly towards mid month. After that it's anyone's guess.....

Amongst the hopecasting, cold ramping and downright insanity of these boards when it comes to snow...............Su Campu, I always find your post have a realism to them (like MT) so take this as a compliment - I find that if you are edging towards snowfall, we usually do get it! So I will be monitoring your posts closely over the coming month!

However, I do love a Darkman2 post........:D:D

D

jimmy.d

snow depth [IMG]http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_24_uksnowdepth.png?dt=14January 20061218:42[/IMG][IMG]http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_36_uksnowdepth.png?dt=14January 20061218:42[/IMG]

pistolpetes11

I was going to say everything looks further east on this run ,

I dont know how the GFS is then finding snow acums for Ireland , looks like the snow line/ battleground will be off the south east /east coast of the UK.

ninebeanrows

GFS Ensembles are very interesting come T96-120

The morning could be interesting. Fingers crossed.

pistolpetes11

jimmy.d wrote: »

snow depth [IMG]http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_24_uksnowdepth.png?dt=14January 20061218:42[/IMG][IMG]http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_36_uksnowdepth.png?dt=14January 20061218:42[/IMG]

There is a mistake here with these charts ,

There wont be any snow at those times , have a look at the 850hPa's and DP's they go against any snow accumulations.

J6P

Models failed to pick up the precipitation currently over the east of england..maybe we'll get a surprise flurry on our east coast or am i clutching at straws?

jimmy.d

something showing up in the westhttp://www.raintoday.co.uk/ even more showing up on this one few in the easthttp://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

Sponge Bob

00z GFS makes the possibility of a night frost at any stage out to 180hrs highly marginal and the 850hpa shows a positive or marginally negative temperature across the period.

This is the best single prospect for cold out to 180hrs and even then it is pretty anorexic and undeveloped in FI beyond it??



Any chance we can lock this one up as a gonner ?

irish1967

Given that in all ME forcasts yesterday it stated what percipiation today could turn to sleet or maybe snow away from the coast and given the fact that its snowing right on the west coast at sea level now does this improve the chance of areas further east getting more snow than forcast?

pistolpetes11

Sponge ,

We had a little chat the other night about the validity of the GFS V the ECM so why do you now see the GFS as gospel ?

After all you didnt think that was the case when we last spoke about it.


The ECM does not back the GFS , it actually fights back the milder air.

@ Irish, The Uppers dont seem to support it , but stranger things have happened

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oiTYrqrAfI

Iancar29

Met office going for an AMBER alert for tomorrow. Current outlook brings the front hitting the country from Midday tomorrow as SNOW ....

pistolpetes11

ECM & GFS mean height anomalies for day 10:



GFS better linkage with the Arctic High, ECM much flatter but ridge displaced well north of its usual position.

As a mean solution, both look good and there's a notable shift in emphasis from Scandinavian ridge to mid Atlantic at t192. That leaves us in a solid mean trough solution, which could range from anything between -2 and -8C below normal.

Both models suggest a developing strongly -ve AO and we are likely to get several model runs suggesting a link between the two, which might temporarily happen. I think those spread suggesting height rises between southern Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia are not far off the mark, The long term solution I think is for the Arctic ridge to migrate towards Svalbard and northern Scandinavia, setting us up for a big easterly end of the month (that's after a northerly / north-easterly phase).

TheInquisitor

The latest GFS has the cold about further 300 miles to the west than on the last run around 120 hours out!

Eastcoastryan

I am a total novice at reading charts but to me it looks like the GFS has Ireland back in the cold in 5 days time!! Then again, I could be totally mistaken!!

arctictree

GFS t+120 could have snow potential for the east coast.

TheMilkyPirate

12z has the uk and ireland back in an easterly flow by tuesday, UK under very cold uppers.



+147



+165



Yes please.

Nabber

And by Thursday it has turned from SE int just a plain old Easterly
Interesting times again. Atlantic my spoil our fun again. But this thime they are building a Scandi high and not a Russian high. Still FI though. Alot can change.

devilabit

And plently of snow for the east coast on Wednesday extending countrywide by Thursday. Uppers look on marginal side to me at this stage though.

mcriot29

devilabit wrote: »

And plently of snow for the east coast on Wednesday extending countrywide by Thursday. Uppers look on marginal side to me at this stage though.

Irish met say diffrent mild week ahead

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Boom

JanuarySnowstor

UKMO is pants this evening.
We lie in a westerly :mad:

oterra

devilabit wrote: »

And plently of snow for the east coast on Wednesday extending countrywide by Thursday. Uppers look on marginal side to me at this stage though.

Looks like the Beast is biting back...Are we trusting GFS at the mo?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

And as I am only allowed up to 180...

TheMilkyPirate

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

UKMO is pants this evening.
We lie in a westerly :mad:

Yes, UKMO is crap, GFS is turning into an amazing run though so we'll see what the ECM has to say about next week.

EDIT: Cold just keeps on coming in FI, High retrogressing to Greenland, Pointless looking at it but nice all the same.

Musicman2000

oterra wrote: »

Looks like the Beast is biting back...Are we trusting GFS at the mo?

Great 12z run from the GFS would give us a second bite of the cherry, BUT UKMO 12z run is having none of it, be interesting to see waht the 12z ECM run has in store.

mickger844posts

A glimmer of hope today from the GFS 12z run. Stands to reason really when you think of how deep the cold layer is in most of Europe right now. That won't be easy to shift in a hurry.:)

Villain

Its only run and not much agreement, yes it is interesting but don't get carried away

Musicman2000

Villain wrote: »

Its only run and not much agreement, yes it is interesting but don't get carried away

Have to agree with you Villan but then the UKMO12Z changes its mind and comes on board the end of next week.