Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

pistolpetes11

mickger844posts wrote: »

I was never a huge fan of The Netweather forums but had a quick read through their model discussions page and found it very interesting and informative. There is a lot of knowledge over there.
Not long now to the 0Z runs. Should be interesting to say the least

Im eagerly awaiting this run !

The Model Discussion page and the Strat warming discussion would be the only ones i frequent but I enjoy them.

mothel

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Im eagerly awaiting this run !

The Model Discussion page and the Strat warming discussion would be the only ones i frequent but I enjoy them.

Hi, can you post a link to the Model discussion page please?

pistolpetes11

mothel wrote: »

Hi, can you post a link to the Model discussion page please?

Its the 3rd forum on that list , the first one on the list is where the strat discussion is also

bassy

when or what time should we exspect to see the 0z run?.

mickger844posts

bassy wrote: »

when or what time should we exspect to see the 0z run?.

GFS 0Z run is rolling out now. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

pistolpetes11

cold looking a tiny bit more westward @ 24hrs , what do u think ?

Actually it is , only a little bit but it all counts !

mickger844posts

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

cold looking a tiny bit more westward @ 24hrs , what do u think ?

Took a snap of the 18z at 66h so when we get the 0Z of that chart will compare the two.

kingshankly

First few days in February looking quite cold

pistolpetes11

mickger844posts wrote: »

Took a snap of the 18z at 66h so when we get the 0Z of that chart will compare the two.

If you scroll over 36 00z then 42 12Z there the exact same time and the difference can be seen

BLIZZARD7

Far More comments here than on Netweather so far for the 00z's haha. Hopefully the trend will stay the same on GFS and ECM and UKMO upgrade!




Dan

pistolpetes11

18z



00z



Spot the difference

pistolpetes11

18z



00z



Milder Air holding on a bit more here , but not by much,

Although the core of the cold is further westwards

kingshankly

Still looking good for the north east , it snowed here outside newry yesterday morning for 10 minutes to wet me appetite

mickger844posts

Yes, cold staying that little bit further East on this run so far. We will see if it goes deep cold again on the lather part of the run.

pistolpetes11

mickger844posts wrote: »

Yes, cold staying that little bit further East on this run so far. We will see if it goes deep cold again on the lather part of the run.

The core of the cold is angling in a more northerly direction so I would hope so, I think the FI deep cold will hit us a little sooner on this run , that more northerly track is bring it quicker

Musicman2000

mickger844posts wrote: »

Yes, cold staying that little bit further East on this run so far. We will see if it goes deep cold again on the lather part of the run.

looks like the deep cold is moving that bit quicker west

pistolpetes11

I Think , Late Sunday /Monday snow may be off the cards but the rest is looking good

pistolpetes11

18z




00z

BLIZZARD7

Looking up to +126hrs- This is going to be a direct hit of -15 to -20 850 temps!




Dan

Musicman2000

Oh this is looking like another great run:D

mickger844posts

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I Think , Late Sunday /Monday snow may be off the cards but the rest is looking good

If we take the run at face value i would agree that Sun/Mon event would be a non runner but its true that the deep cold is making its way West faster on this run so still all to play for i think. Overall very little differences between to 18Z and 0Z which in itself is a good thing

pistolpetes11

18z



00z



There is a lot more -20 uppers (purple) on this chart ,

do you think there going to come over to say hello ?

I think so , Thats the where our air mass should be flowing through

What about the 1060mb high pressure !

Musicman2000

Ive seen enough:D That will do me what a run night folks

BLIZZARD7

Epic run-

-39 in austria!!!!!!!! :eek::D









Dan

mickger844posts

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

18z



00z



There is a lot more -20 uppers (purple) on this chart ,

do you think there going to come over to say hello ?

I think so , Thats the where our air mass should be flowing through

What about the 1060mb high pressure !

I think the stand out factor of this run is the deepness of the cold and how wide an area it covers. Also that 1060mb pressure is unreal stuff. Next the 0Z ECMWF in a few hours. Hopefully something similar.

pistolpetes11

We loose our Easterly flow around 144 hours which stops the real deep cold getting into us , but I have a feeling that High will move west or could even head towards greenland ,

Does not look like a sinker .

A little bit worried how early we loose the e-flow in this run , What do you think of DM2 ?

BLIZZARD7

Dont worry pistolpetes11, FI is +96hrs at the moment, everything after is subject to change.

UKMO looking good upto +120hrs, at +144hrs I would prefer less influence from the azores high! Good trends overall this morning though- Hopefully ECM is on board.




Dan

darkman2

Good GFS/UKMO overall. However there are caveats. One is the GFS is wanting to stop progression of coldest air this far west and the UKMO is not great for snow in the East either unless you want frontal snow which is a real possibility on both models. But both force cold air West due to it's depth more then anything else. The air is so cold, so deep and so widespread on the continent it has nowhere else to go.

It's all still to play for.

Harps

Sunday/Monday looks like rain for most, maybe sleet/snow on higher ground, after that its back to the usual situation of looking around 144h onwards for real cold which is quite pointless considering the level of uncertainty. Most likely situation is a terrible weekend with plenty of rain followed by a boring week with nothing happening made worse through knowing that the rest of Europe is under severe cold. After that anything can happen obviously but even with everything that happened today I've still not shifted from thinking we'll end up in no mans land for the most part. Gladly be proven wrong but I've yet to see a single run model cold for us within a reliable time and until that happens I'm not getting off the fence!

M.T. Cranium

Could turn out epic for snow as the Atlantic is never pushed back beyond the outer west coast of Ireland. Not to mention the blizzards in Ibiza, Sardinia and who knows maybe Lake Chad will freeze over if there's any water left in it.

As DM2 mentions, this high while very strong is not really a retrograde event so much as a swelling block. Once it's done swelling, then there's no mechanism to sustain a cold spell. However, it will probably leave behind an imprint of some kind over Norway-Sweden to allow for a second cold spell later in the month.

For there to be severe cold with this, the arctic front pretty much has to push further west, otherwise there is bound to be a low overcast and snow or sleet further west, and with that temperatures may not fall to much lower than -4 C.

Depends on what you want to see, how you might rate the potential with these charts, but I would say better for Wicklow, Dublin and northeast snow than any other prospects. Let's see how the ECM handles this. The 1065 mb high lasting several days on the GFS is exceptional and showed up before the 1947 cold spell; a record value of 1067 mbs can be seen over the Baltic in Jan 1907 (but only a moderate cold spell reached the UK in that situation).

It's generally better to see high pressure extending as far west as Iceland to get a sustained and deep cold.