Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

derekon

Ok reality check here folks.

The ECM 0z does not look like anything spectacular to me (from the perspective of Ireland)

-4oC upper temps flirt with the east coast of our island next Thursday and Friday. This would deliver rain/sleet? After that, the Atlantic looks like winning out with mild temperatures returning and any severe cold restricted to Europe.

That said Thursday/Friday is in FI so things might change. However, never rule out the power of the Atlantic on the island of Ireland. Next couple of days will be very interesting however if I was a betting man, I would go for the mild winning out (this pains me to say)

D

blackius

met eireann at 755,rain rain rain...
Lowest temp at night next week -2c..

coldest day time in the east next week 4 or 5c with ongoing rain in the west and southwest and milder there up to 9c

No mention of snow anywhere,not even sleet...

/boring

caeser

Whatever happens over the next couple of days these last few GFS runs have been the best of the winter and are the reason why i love weather.. lets hope the GFS pattern continues. A question though have -14 or -16 uppers ever reached ireland before.

derekon

blackius wrote: »

met eireann at 755,rain rain rain...
Lowest temp at night next week -2c..

coldest day time in the east next week 4 or 5c with ongoing rain in the west and southwest and milder there up to 9c

No mention of snow anywhere,not even sleet...

/boring

Illustrates exactly my point Blackius - people need to take a few deep breaths here. MT in his update this morning is of the view the east of the country has a 70% chance of snow and cold with mild to win out after that. Next few model runs will be crucial. Met Eireann are not biting yet. Caution advised.

D

blackius

M.e seem to base every forecast on one ecm run.
Makes it simple for them I suppose.

It desn't inspire confidence though when that inevitably leads to constantly having to change their forecasts.

blackius

caeser wrote: »

Whatever happens over the next couple of days these last few GFS runs have been the best of the winter and are the reason why i love weather.. lets hope the GFS pattern continues. A question though have -14 or -16 uppers ever reached ireland before.

Wetterzentrale will have historic maps for 850's but at a rough guess,they will have done,perhaps in 47 or one of the other severe Easterlies.

Incidentally as some of you will know,the mornings ECM put a cock blocking high centre near denmark which cuts off the flow of the coldest uppers and ends our cold spell before it even began.
Thats the reason for the mildish M.E forecast today.


In the short term,there is going to be a lot of heavy rain on this island over the next 48 to 60hrs as colder and warmer air collide on a frontal boundary.

Redsunset

Matthew Hugo Reasonable model agreement for most of next week now - meteocentre.com/models/ compar_… - the ECM Det was a mild outlier by the way as well 9:03 am - 28 Jan 12 via Twitter

force eleven

blackius wrote: »

met eireann at 755,rain rain rain...
Lowest temp at night next week -2c..

coldest day time in the east next week 4 or 5c with ongoing rain in the west and southwest and milder there up to 9c

No mention of snow anywhere,not even sleet...

/boring

Don't worry, Gerry Murphy wrote that summary. He cannot bear to type the word snow let alone say it. :rolleyes:

K_1

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Ok-

Everybody- Do not worry about snow and where it will come from, once we have the easterly in place and cold uppers backing west-The snow WILL follow!

Pressure to high? No such thing- December 2010 I was worried about this, pressure at 1040MB, how will we ever get snow?? -10 uppers over an irish sea of +10C creates LOADS of precipitation. Got 10-15cm that day.

The sst's in the Irish sea are currently around 10C, you need a 13C degree difference in sst's and 850 temps to create precipitation. So if the -13C uppers that the GFS 12/18z's came off then we will have a 23C difference!! = Lake effect SNOW in the east.

00Z models are extremely important!





Dan

Thats all very well for you to say on the east coast, but late last December, only 1cm of snow made it past the blackstairs. Most people will need more than streamers to deliver snow, even in the eastern half of the country.

oterra

K_1 wrote: »

Thats all very well for you to say on the east coast, but late last December, only 1cm of snow made it past the blackstairs. Most people will need more than streamers to deliver snow, even in the eastern half of the country.

06z GFS is rolling out now, so lets just wait and see if we're looking at the trend been verified. There has been so many changes in the last 60 hrs that uncertainty is still very strong. The ingredients are there for something epic over the next week or it could go the other way. I say 60/40 in favour of severe cold snap with a mild interlude.

ffarrell7

The coldest and most prolonged cold spells always come with an easterly wind. For the past three years major snow has fallen and stayed for weeks on end in the East (Dublin, Meath, Wicklow, wexford) and for months on high ground especially in the Dublin/ Wicklow mountains. Anyway this time I feel there may be some light snow in Eastern/Northeastern areas but nothing much elsewhere. South escapes 9/10 so expect this to be the case this time again... Cork City occasionally gets a dusting but it is extremely rare.

BEASTERLY

K_1 wrote: »

Thats all very well for you to say on the east coast, but late last December, only 1cm of snow made it past the blackstairs. Most people will need more than streamers to deliver snow, even in the eastern half of the country.

snaps

Watching the BBC weather earlier had Ireland constantly in a mild yellow triangle for most of the near future. Even cold blue around the North west coast and to the west, but funnily enough a mild flow just over Ireland from the South west most of the near future & next week. They seem fairly confident the cold air/warm air boundary would be West Wales north wards.

oterra

Are we witnessing a downgrade here?

TURRICAN

im a big snow fan,but i think we will escape any decent amounts of snow.
if it did snow ground temps are still warm so any snow would melt again pretty quick.
:mad:

premiercad

06z definate downgrade (ireland) but epic snow for uk almost full week on the boundary! Could we be on the outside looking in? Dont pin your hopes/disappointment on any one run!

tfitzgerald

I'd like a bit of snow anything would be better than the dreary weather we have being having lately

Redsunset

Yes not very good again, perhaps this is the way it will go now. Still very uncertain but we are probably that bit too far west.

nilhg

tfitzgerald wrote: »

I'd like a bit of snow anything would be better than the dreary weather we have being having lately

The problem is that the most likely outcome of this for us is dreary wet and cold weather while the news and papers will be full of the snowmageddon across the water and on the continent.

mickger844posts

redsunset wrote: »

Yes not very good again, perhaps this is the way it will go now. Still very uncertain but we are probably that bit too far west.

Looking that way alright. Big downgrade in the GFS 06z compared to the 0Z. Disappointing but are we surprised? Don't think so.

aurora 527

mickger844posts wrote: »

Looking that way alright. Big downgrade in the GFS 06z compared to the 0Z. Disappointing but are we surprised? Don't think so.

I agree but remember its only one run, it could all be different again later!:)

(she says hopefully)

DOCARCH

I would not consider the 06z GFS a big downgrde* - a downgrade imo would be the atlantic taking over again - we still have a stalling front with cold air just to our east, so a wobble a 100 miles west or so could/would make a huge difference.

Always have to remember as well that the models are just that, they are not a crystal ball into the future!

* Also bear in mind that even yesterday the models were not showing snowmagedon for Ireland - it looked like a cold rain event with possibility of some snow - I think thats still showing in the 06z GFS, albeit 50 to 100 miles further east. Still lots of time for it to wobble back this way (or go t*ts up and disappear altogether! :-))

ninebeanrows

This mornings runs seem a lot more realistic , key feature is the shortwave ejected from Iceland at T108, ECM first to pick up on this, let's hope it is wrong!

It appears Mondays snow is still 100 miles away but I will have a closer look

Redsunset

aurora 527 wrote: »

I agree but remember its only one run, it could all be different again later!:)

(she says hopefully)

True but the ECM and GFS together starting to gang up is not good. Needs to be pulled back in 12z GFS and 12z ECM

howlinwolf

im so fed up with this winter... possible cold weather getting swallowed up by the atlantic westerlys ....can the cold win out just this once please weather gods;)

howlinwolf

met eireann have only one winner and sadly its not the one i wanted



Outlook

Sunday night will be wet with widespread rain in the east of the country at first, then more rain will move into western areas overnight. A cold night with lowest temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees.

Monday will be wet with heavy and persistent rain for much of the country. Highest temperatures of 4 to 9 degrees with the colder weather in the north. Winds will be moderate and from the southeast. The rain will continue into Tuesday with some heavy falls in the south. However the rain will tend to ease off towards evening. It will feel cold in the east of the country with highs of 3 to 5 degrees, while in the west temperatures will range from 7 to 10 degrees. It will be cold overnight on Tuesday with lows of 1 to 4 degrees. There will be a lot of dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday with highs of 4 to 9 degrees, once again it will be cold in eastern areas. There is also the risk of frost on both nights

esposito

howlinwolf wrote: »

im so fed up with this winter... possible cold weather getting swallowed up by the atlantic westerlys ....can the cold win out just this once please weather gods;)

The last few Saturday's on this have brought nothing but disappointment. What is it about a saturday and downgrades?! :mad:

I'm beginning to hate the atlantic! However, I still believe we will get some sort of a snow event during february on the east coast. Something's gotta give...

Min

For those of us who do not want snow, the weather models are improving. Pity we are due a lot of rain, which seems to be the main story in all of this.
I was hoping to get the cows out to graze some of the winter grass, such has been the great winter so far.

howlinwolf

Min wrote: »

For those of us who do not want snow, the weather models are improving. Pity we are due a lot of rain, which seems to be the main story in all of this.
I was hoping to get the cows out to graze some of the winter grass, such has been the great winter so far.

ah yeah the farmers always get looked after:p

blackius

aurora 527 wrote: »

I agree but remember its only one run, it could all be different again later!:)

(she says hopefully)

lol but the hopes were got up last night by only one run...the 12z's!