Possible Cold Reload

esposito

I'm just so depressed (probably an over reaction i know) but the thoughts of the atlantic taking over at the weekend sicken me! And I'm sorry but temporary snow on saturday or whatever is no fun when you know it will turn back to rain. If only the cold air pushed further west.

cherryghost

DP on the M2 buoy has finally dropped below zero! getting there, slowly but surely.

CB19Kevo

ME done a good overlook of this system just there.
Its still all to play for and either way the next few days will be of interest.
South Kerry is currently at about 8c, So very mild so far.

snaps

was watching the BBC news at 6.30, even there its not that cold until at least thursday, when night time temps will only drop to minimum -7c, with day temps still around 4c.

aboyro

"it'll be too cold for snow", a quote from my elderly mother-in-law:(

ninebeanrows

snaps wrote: »

was watching the BBC news at 6.30, even there its not that cold until at least thursday, when night time temps will only drop to minimum -7c, with day temps still around 4c.

Yep they can only really use their UKM data for their graphics.

Which really doesn't like this cold spell.

Has been a model of consistency too. But who knows.

lostinashford

aboyro wrote: »

"it'll be too cold for snow", a quote from my elderly mother-in-law:(

Don't think the science would back that up. Myth comes from the fact that our cold weather is often caused by high pressure with very little moisture in it, so no snow as there's no moisture to form it. The colder the air the less moisture it holds.

I'm sure there is someone else better able to explain this but that's my tuppence worth.

beco

Heard that too today!!

blackius

Relax folks,there might be another change in output for the better yet.
Noaa in today's analysis stated model solutions, all models were not to be trusted yet even at t96.

To my eye the Atlantic surge seems way too quick.It should win but more slowly before the easterly comes back.

Stay tuned

Wibbler

Was going to post this in the other thread, but it's probably more appropriate to here.

What is it about our location that causes the really cold upper air to never make it far over Ireland? It seems to be a feature of every Easterly attack. Is it that we're simply at the end of the line for westward advecting cold, or is the Atlantic actively trying to push the cold air east all the time, or is the Irish Sea too warm? Is it a combination of all three?

It's like the cold runs out of puff, or applies the brake, just as it gets here. So it's always marginal. You'd expect that occasionally, the cold would overshoot into the Atlantic, but we never seem to see it.

Of course, if the cold always won out, we'd have predictable outcomes, and there would be no fun in model watching :-)

Sponge Bob

Wibbler wrote: »

What is it about our location that causes the really cold upper air to never make it far over Ireland? It seems to be a feature of every Easterly attack. Is it that we're simply at the end of the line for westward advecting cold, or is the Atlantic actively trying to push the cold air east all the time, or is the Irish Sea too warm? Is it a combination of all three?

All three, add 1x North Sea too.

Mountainsandh

MT on the other thread :

This still favours a strong thermal gradient across Ireland from east to west, with the most likely western extremity of the arctic front looking to be about midway between Waterford and Cork, north-northwest to around Donegal Bay. That point most likely to be reached Thursday night into Friday mid-day before a retreat east begins. Your local forecast will depend on proximity to this boundary and there will almost definitely be two very different regimes leading to quite a contrast, which of course means forecasting will be difficult.

:eek::D

That'd be me sorted. :cool:

davidsr20

Mountainsandh wrote: »

MT on the other thread :
:eek::D

That'd be me sorted. :cool:

Waterford/cork never really get snow

Wild Bill

Cheer up folks......44 hours and still counting......:)

bnt

Alaska is definitely feeling Siberian, according to Wunderground. Parts of the state hit -65°F (-54°C) and the record low of -80°F (-62°C) may have been broken on Saturday, but the monitoring station lost power at -78°F. :eek:

weatherfiend

Wild Bill wrote: »

Cheer up folks......44 hours and still counting......:)

Seriously this bloody rain will never stop!!! How the hell are we to get any frost to get the place ready for all that lovely snow???!!!

I must say today has been great having everybody on board n information from all you guys who know what to look for flowing. Quite often we can get swathes of hours with no posts - usually when you're not horrendously busy and have time to keep watch!! The thing that has kept me positive is wild bill, dm2 etc n partic MT, who has been with us most of the day even tho he's on a different time-zone, have all been keeping us loaded with info. Really, thanks
guys.

only one

davidsr20 wrote: »

Mountainsandh wrote: »

MT on the other thread :
:eek::D

That'd be me sorted. :cool:

Waterford/cork never really get snow

Snow for cork and Waterford ? Doubt it. Snow hates cork and Waterford

compsys

It's snowing in Athens of all places at the moment! The injustice of it all! If it snows there and not here then I just give up

Mountainsandh

only one wrote: »

Snow for cork and Waterford ? Doubt it. Snow hates cork and Waterford

I beg to differ

Xmas 2009


snow 006 by mountainsandheather, on Flickr

Calibos

In terms of meagre snowfalls. Ireland is the Waterford of Europe and Bray is the Waterford of the Eastcoast. There is a reason Waterford is called Waterford and not Snowford

Mountainsandh

Yous are all jealous, and yous will all be sorry on Friday ! (well, here's hoping... )

Nabber

This is snow joke, It is absolutely bucketing down here. It has been all day, everything is covered in it. Breath taking stuff, not many people playing in it.......
melted Snow as far as the eye can see.

Fourteen

Nabber wrote: »

This is snow joke, It is absolutely bucketing down here. It has been all day, everything is covered in it. Breath taking stuff, not many people playing in it.......
melted Snow as far as the eye can see.

Don't bullshit!

Eastcoastryan

Wish I hadn't watched that TV Weather with Evelyn, Sleet was as good as it got.. cold and dry Wednesday and Thursday with The Atlantic and 12 Degrees rolling in after Friday, very depressing.

Calibos

Liquid Snow falling here in Bray too!! or as I like to call it, "Young Snow".

aboyro

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Wish I hadn't watched that TV Weather with Evelyn, Sleet was as good as it got.. cold and dry Wednesday and Thursday with The Atlantic and 12 Degrees rolling in after Friday, very depressing.

feckin heartbreaking, i wish i had'nt watched it too

Nabber

Fourteen wrote: »

Don't bullshit!

No bullsht it has beens pssing melted snow all day here

mothel

Weather after 9 o'clock news on RTE just downgraded the whole thing to a couple of very cold dry days with maybe a shower or 2 until the Atlantic warms it all up again by the weekend! Is that it??

pistolpetes11

Folks here is a post from Glacier Point on Netweather, I would hold him up there with the best of them, Su ,DM2,Deep,MT,Weathercheck,Trog,Red and all the other top contributors on this forum.

GFS products becoming quite enthusiastic for a strong -ve AO developing between 9th and 11th Feb. GFS (parallel) 12z ensembles pretty much what all three runs (both parallel and 'normal') have shown today:




Note the number of members diving into -4 territory at this time and this is very consistent with the downwelling stratospheric signal and the ECM 12z ensemble mean also showing development of a strong -ve AO at day 10.

Strong zonal transport across 30N still showing up on reanalysis plots, but also strong negative mountain torque and positive frictional torques in the mid and high latitudes helping to off set this.

Long range ensemble means are also depicting a strong mid Atlantic ridge as the evolution to our Scandinavian ridge (which by the way still going strong on ensemble means into day 10). The GFS seems very keen on this idea, and the longer that this is picked, you've got to thing a trough dropping to our east is the way forward from mid month on, potentially with a split in the polar vortex at the same time making another Arctic outbreak a logical pattern.





Steady as she goes for sustained cold pattern dominating February - subtle nuances with an attempted breakdown, surface cold, reload easterly and then northerly ?

blackius

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather