Possible Cold Reload

whataboutnow

disappointing run with the models.give me a northerly any day.the easterly isn't all its cracked up to be at times and even if it snows when the atlantic reasserts itself it will only be temporary and most likely over high ground

munsterlegend

it seems to be all downgrades from the brief upgrade yesterday morning. however afternoon yesterday the 06z was classed as being out of sync so maybe just maybe the 12z run might surprise us with a westward shift! we live in hope.

blackius

rc28 wrote: »

Very dissappointing but you really can only laugh when the downgrades get this bad At least europe is very cold and I'm optimistic there will be more chances in February.

+1

However there have been many winters in the 90's and noughties where the cold,severe cold over Europe stopped at Holland whilst Britain and Ireland stayed under a finger of wet atlantic...Yuk!
So we could still end up with that.
I don't have access to a pc for most of today so no easy access to the models but there were hints previously of high pressure centres over norway at least on the ecm for later next week if they are still there.
We'll see.

I await the morning Noaa discussions too.

average_runner

In fairness looking at Irish weather history, the chance of getting bad snow is very slim. So the odds were always against it. Its pointless looking at anything more than 48 hours out.

jo06555

well that's another days hopes gone , I suppose we will have a new cold spell on the horizon again tommorrow:)i won't be believing the hype

Iancar29

Latest Radar shows snow falling in London.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest Radar shows snow falling in London.

:mad::mad::mad:

Min

For a person who likes warm weather over the cold, I am happy with the latest trends, looking like the possible Siberian blast will end up as having been a lot of hot air

blackius

Well to be fair,you are likely to get 3 severe frosts at your location out of it min starting tonight so I would take precautions with outdoor water supplies...

Last nights rain fell as snow above 1200 ft in the hills just 4 miles west of here in south wicklow.
The coillte woods up on croghan 6 miles inland from the irish sea are white today.

mcriot29

blackius wrote: »

Well to be fair,you are likely to get 3 severe frosts at your location out of it min starting tonight so I would take precautions with outdoor water supplies...

Last nights rain fell as snow above 1200 ft in the hills just 4 miles west of here in south wicklow.
The coillte woods up on croghan 6 miles inland from the irish sea are white today.

Lucky up high so
I dont know why people are so shocked with such a high nao forecast the cold could never last long in west europe uk will be mild by sun too

munsterlegend

The Met Office outlook is not too mild looking even if they are a good bit further east:

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:
Sunday is likely to be unsettled and mostly cloudy with a band of rain and snow lying north to south across the country. Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will lie central and eastern parts are most likely to see snow and/or ice, with perhaps some significant falls of snow in places. Less cold in the north and west, but remaining cold elsewhere. Into next week, eastern, central and southern areas are likely to become more settled with a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures here are likely to stay cold, perhaps even very cold for some. Northern and northwestern areas then remaining unsettled with rain and strong winds at times but less cold. The cold theme looks likely to continue into the following week.
Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012


UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 29 Feb 2012:
Cold weather looks likely during this period with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average much of the time. This would also suggest rainfall amounts being largely near or below average in many areas but, possibly, above average over southern Britain. Given below average temperatures are expected, some snow is also likely at times.
Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012

blackius

mcriot29 wrote: »

Lucky up high so
I dont know why people are so shocked with such a high nao forecast the cold could never last long in west europe uk will be mild by sun too

Actually the february 1991 spell delivered a week long freeze in wicklow and wexford and along the east coast and about 8 inches of snow here in arklow which was on the ground for about a week.

That was without atlantic blocking and there was a positive nao.
A scandi high delivered that.

Why do people moan so much??

Yes we look like catching the fishing boat to the middle of the harbour on this one if you like snow instead of the ferry to the Baltic.

But this could all change before the end of febnruary or it might not,we'll see.
I'd be very surprised actually if the atlantic makes inroads into europe.
Theres no need for all the moaning here

pistolpetes11

munsterlegend wrote: »

The Met Office outlook is not too mild looking even if they are a good bit further east:

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:
Sunday is likely to be unsettled and mostly cloudy with a band of rain and snow lying north to south across the country. Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will lie central and eastern parts are most likely to see snow and/or ice, with perhaps some significant falls of snow in places. Less cold in the north and west, but remaining cold elsewhere. Into next week, eastern, central and southern areas are likely to become more settled with a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures here are likely to stay cold, perhaps even very cold for some. Northern and northwestern areas then remaining unsettled with rain and strong winds at times but less cold. The cold theme looks likely to continue into the following week.
Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012


UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 29 Feb 2012:
Cold weather looks likely during this period with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average much of the time. This would also suggest rainfall amounts being largely near or below average in many areas but, possibly, above average over southern Britain. Given below average temperatures are expected, some snow is also likely at times.
Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

munsterlegend

from my amateur viewpoint the met office over there have disregarded the 06z. we want a 12z going west--stranger things have happened!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

munsterlegend wrote: »

from my amateur viewpoint the met office over there have disregarded the 06z. we want a 12z going west--stranger things have happened!

They certainly have ! It is getting hard to hold out hope at this late stage though.

Ill stick with it until the 12z runs today !

Min

blackius wrote: »

Well to be fair,you are likely to get 3 severe frosts at your location out of it min starting tonight so I would take precautions with outdoor water supplies...

Last nights rain fell as snow above 1200 ft in the hills just 4 miles west of here.
The coillte woods up on croghan 6 miles inland from the irish sea are white today.

Yeah, I don't mind that too much, once we get no snow on the roads here or any bad ice build up.
It has been an exceptional winter so far here on the high ground, just 4 air frosts recorded which is far less than near by weather stations located lower down.

The coldest temperature I recorded this winter was a -0.9C back in December.

Current dew point -0.1C, temperature 3.4C.

I will see later if the air is clear if I can get a view of the Wicklow mountains. I do like snow covered mountains just not the hills around here, lol
I will take your advice.

Min

Some forget we can get snow in May, I know someone here said they have seen snow in June.

Vudgie

Noticeably colder in Dublin this afternoon...it's starting;)

Villain

WEATHER ADVISORY:

Some very cold nights over the next few nights with some freezing fog and Icy conditions making driving conditions dangerous.

TUESDAY:
A cold cloudy day but mainly dry with temps of 2c to 5c.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
A very cold night with a hard frost setting in quickly, temps will drop to 1c to -5c with some very icy conditions. There is also a risk of some freezing fog in the midlands.

WEDNESDAY:
Icy roads in the morning with a cold day with temps of 2c to 5c but dry with some sunny spells.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A very cold night with temps falling quickly after dark, temps will be -1c to -4c with again a risk of freezing fog with the midlands most at risk. Icy conditions in many areas.

THURSDAY:
A very cold day with Fog and Frost slow to clear temps of -1c to 4c

THURSDAY NIGHT:
Another cold night with frost setting in quickly again, however South Western areas will see a rise in temps during the night up to 4c but elsewhere will see temps of -3 to 1c coldest in the North. A band of rain will approach from the West late Thursday night bringing a rise in temps and some rain and sleet to the West.

FRIDAY:
That of rain mentioned above will spread across the country meeting colder air as it does which could result in Freezing rain or Snow for a time in the Midlands and then East. Any Snow or Freezing rain will remain for a while before a rise in temps may melt any accumulations however the band of rain will clear and temps will fall again to 1c to 4c with some frost forming leading to icy conditions early Friday night.

WEEKEND:
It now looks most likely that milder weather will break through and push the Cold back with temps of 4c to 10c on Saturday, warmest in the West. It looks pretty wet with showers of rain in many areas. A much milder night Saturday night then previous nights with temps of 5c to 10c. Sunday looks mild also with temps of 5c to 11c coldest in Northern areas but quite a wet day with some heavy rain, especially in Southern areas.

My latest forecast on http://www.iwo.ie/2012/01/31/updated-forecast-31112-weather-advisory/

Big Daddy Cool

Min wrote: »

Some forget we can get snow in May, I know someone here said they have seen snow in June.

i taught it couldnt possibly happen, but now its only a matter of time before there is summer snow threads on here :P

DOCARCH

Still very overcast here. 3.5c DP 0.5c atm. Temp dropping very slowly.

Can see a few specks on radar now over Liverpool Bay - may blow this way later?

Sponge Bob

Mortality rate climbs.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0131/breaking32.html

More than 60 people have died in a cold snap across Eastern Europe, authorities said today, forcing some countries to call in the army to help secure food and medical supplies and set up emergency shelters for the homeless.

The temperature in Ukraine sank to minus 33 degrees celsius, the coldest in six years, while eastern Bosnia experienced lows of minus 31C and Poland, Romania and Bulgaria minus 30C.

Forecasters said the cold spell would last until Friday with further heavy snow expected across the region tomorrow.

At least 30 people, most of them homeless, have died in Ukraine in the past five days, the Emergencies Ministry said.

Another 500 people were treated in hospital for frostbite and other cold-related ailments.January temperatures in Ukraine do not normally sink below minus 15C.

The ministry said 1,600 centres had been set up to provide shelter and hand out food for the homeless.

Five people died in Bulgaria and 8 in Romania, where troops were called in last week to rescue hundreds of people stranded in cars by blizzards. The Black Sea was frozen around the Romanian resort of Mamaia, and across the border in Bulgaria a salt lake froze for the first time in 58 years.

Five people were reported dead in Poland overnight, bringing to 15 the number to have died since temperatures dropped at the weekend. Several suffered carbon monoxide poisoning from old or faulty heaters, the Interior Affairs Ministry said.

weatherfiend

Just heard sky has that glorious dark purply kind of look when snow in the air!!!!!! slowly slowly catchey monkey !!



at Dublin airport that is

snowjon

weatherfiend wrote: »

Just heard sky has that glorious dark purply kind of look when snow in the air!!!!!! slowly slowly catchey monkey !!



at Dublin airport that is

We had some snow grains here in the North East this morning - its been very dull and grey all day here. I think there may have been a few more snow grains as well - very light so it's hard to tell :rolleyes:

Lucreto

Harps wrote: »

Don't see why anyone is surprised when the ECMWF has been pretty consistent for the past few days in any real cold stalling on the east coast, I'd always trust it far more than the GFS. No major change anyway other than maybe a couple of degrees warmer but the week is much the same as was being progged yesterday with temps around 3-5C during the day and hard frosts at night. No real signs of a quick reload yet but we'll see.

Lovely day today anyway, great to wake up to blue skies and the ground surface is actually starting to dry up :eek:

The difference here in Naas. It is drying out but overcast and 3.8C.

mcriot29

Lucreto wrote: »

Harps wrote: »

Don't see why anyone is surprised when the ECMWF has been pretty consistent for the past few days in any real cold stalling on the east coast, I'd always trust it far more than the GFS. No major change anyway other than maybe a couple of degrees warmer but the week is much the same as was being progged yesterday with temps around 3-5C during the day and hard frosts at night. No real signs of a quick reload yet but we'll see.

Lovely day today anyway, great to wake up to blue skies and the ground surface is actually starting to dry up :eek:

The difference here in Naas. It is drying out but overcast and 3.8C.

Ok so we all know mild on way by weekend but whats your views for next few days on east and dublin can there be snow , ifwe look back to dec 10 there was no mention of snow from met in fact they said just the odd flake then east got lots , can this happen again , myself i think it may whats every ones views

gbee

Min wrote: »

Some forget we can get snow in May, I know someone here said they have seen snow in June.

Me for one, during school holidays on the train to Dublin it was stopped outside Mallow and we enjoyed a deep but very well defined snow shower and thick snow on the ground.

I can estimate now that it was no more than twenty miles wide and maybe a little longer.

mayfly757

Her in Leipzig Germany wind chill of - 20c , cuts straight tru you , cant stay out in it for more than few min , frozen compacted snow form last Friday , nice to have cold weather but this is tooo cold !!

blackius

DOCARCH wrote: »

Still very overcast here. 3.5c DP 0.5c atm. Temp dropping very slowly.

Can see a few specks on radar now over Liverpool Bay - may blow this way later?

Dewpoint here in Arklow is now -1.2c, so respectable especially since it's cloudy.
ESE breeze

Air temp is 3.8c

munsterlegend

All aboard for the 12z..though i sense the optimism is waning quite a bit! maybe this can be the start of the turnaround..