Possible Cold Reload

Pangea

Heres the snow falling here
http://youtu.be/xJqhDHj3DSE

talkabout

I wouldn't be getting too excited as its a pretty pathetic attempt at a snowfall :mad:

tylercollins

Pangea wrote: »

Heres the snow falling here
100_7438.MOV - 1.42MB

Reports coming in now it's snowing in Derry. Can't confirm as I'm in Strabane.

blackius

Bone chilling breeze here in Paris.
air temp still -6c at 2pm local my hands and ears are burning with the bite of it!
Am about to board the eurostar back to London-can't wait

Computer Sci

Does anybody know when this cold snap will be up and the weather will get milder and warmer during Spring?

pistolpetes11

Computer Sci wrote: »

Does anybody know when this cold snap will be up and the weather will get milder and warmer during Spring?

Indications are that it break over the weekend , but models are hinting of it reloading around Wednesday but nothing is certain with how the models have been of late !

esposito

blackius wrote: »

Bone chilling breeze here in Paris.
air temp still -6c at 2pm local my hands and ears are burning with the bite of it!
Am about to board the eurostar back to London-can't wait

You're so lucky. Well jealous. Enjoy! It's so frustrating when a country further south like france gets really cold. Life ain't fair:(

esposito

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

ECM & GFS mean height anomalies for day 10:



GFS better linkage with the Arctic High, ECM much flatter but ridge displaced well north of its usual position.

As a mean solution, both look good and there's a notable shift in emphasis from Scandinavian ridge to mid Atlantic at t192. That leaves us in a solid mean trough solution, which could range from anything between -2 and -8C below normal.

Both models suggest a developing strongly -ve AO and we are likely to get several model runs suggesting a link between the two, which might temporarily happen. I think those spread suggesting height rises between southern Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia are not far off the mark, The long term solution I think is for the Arctic ridge to migrate towards Svalbard and northern Scandinavia, setting us up for a big easterly end of the month (that's after a northerly / north-easterly phase).

Please God. We are due a bit of luck.

Royal Dub

Computer Sci wrote: »

Does anybody know when this cold snap will be up and the weather will get milder and warmer during Spring?

Be gone demon:D

Pangea

talkabout wrote: »

I wouldn't be getting too excited as its a pretty pathetic attempt at a snowfall :mad:

Still it wasn't expected and its better than nothing , it was nice to see it snowing and the ground white , no accumulations though. Drizzle here now at the moment but still only 0.9c

Sponge Bob

Computer Sci wrote: »

Does anybody know when this cold snap will be up and the weather will get milder and warmer during Spring?

Warmness may well have to wait till mid March.

mountainy man

Just had a little bit of light snow, ground is frozen solid here.

kingshankly

esposito wrote: »

You're so lucky. Well jealous. Enjoy! It's so frustrating when a country further south like france gets really cold. Life ain't fair:(

Far away fields are always whiter;)

whataboutnow

netweather pointing at cold returning from wednesday on.It's encouraging they have been spot on with their summary so far this winter.It's a good indication at least-something to cling on to ha
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Redsunset

I have renamed thread to reflect the possibility of a cold reload back our direction. Models will have to start backing each other up on this but as the Siberian blast has been deflected, this is something else to talk about.

Nabber

From net weather

delw

GFS is a great run but it is still only one run,ECM may or may not follow but with the models having a hard time of late can they be trusted past t96?
I'm not jumping on the roller-coaster until a more reliable time frame

Redsunset

delw wrote: »

GFS is a great run but it is still only one run,ECM may or may not follow but with the models having a hard time of late can they be trusted past t96?
I'm not jumping on the roller-coaster until a more reliable time frame

That's fine but I'm sure your still in the queue that extends around the corner with ticket in hand.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsunset wrote: »

That's fine but I'm sure your still in the queue that extends around the corner with ticket in hand.

pistolpetes11

redsunset wrote: »

I have renamed thread to reflect the possibility of a cold reload back our direction. Models will have to start backing each other up on this but as the Siberian blast has been deflected, this is something else to talk about.

You could prob do the same with the model tech discussion one too.

blackius

For what its worth,it's interesting when the most Atlantic weather favouring
model throws up an almost scarily cold outlook like tonight.
There's always been a possibility with so much intense cold now nearby that a quieter Atlantic would passively let us experience that cold.

Trogdor

Had a quick flick through the gfs ensembles @120hrs there.

30% go for the atlantic Westerlies/South-Westerlies.
40% go for the a battleground of sorts between the westerly influence and the scandinavian/russian block with neither very mild or very cold air making it over the country.
30% go for an easterly.

So all very uncertain at the moment!

Here is my favourite chart of all the ensembles at 120hrs: (please note that while this is a stunning chart which would be delivering lots of snow if it verified it is not currently representative of the majority of the ensembles and was just my favourite chart)

Gonzo

I thought that mild breakdown would have reached us by now?Has it been slightly delayed? Frezzing outside again with many icy patchs on side roads and fields.

jo06555

Here we go again : ( ll check back at half 9 and we will be looking at +10 temps for week ahead so unpredictable

Musicman2000

ECM 12z having none of it way to flat like the UKMO12Z, Then heights rise towards Greenland in FI a northerly/Northeasterly would tie in what GP over on netweather said and SU here.

irish1967

Don't know if this was posted already but heres a tweet from Met.ie earlier. I presume this is there way of saying the weather wil be sh***y

Met Éireann @MetEireann Dry this aft & eve in E&Midlands with hazy sunshine. Cloudier in the W&N with scat outbreaks of rain/sleet. Max 3-6C, coolest in Lein & Uls.

mcriot29

irish1967 wrote: »

Don't know if this was posted already but heres a tweet from Met.ie earlier. I presume this is there way of saying the weather wil be sh***y

Met Éireann @MetEireann Dry this aft & eve in E&Midlands with hazy sunshine. Cloudier in the W&N with scat outbreaks of rain/sleet. Max 3-6C, coolest in Lein & Uls.

Ireland will remain outside the fridge till the nao drops if anything it gets more pos by the day up to 16 days out, hence no cold for us and i dont buy uk staying very cold by next week ireland and uk will be mild . Gfs is over playing the cold reload im not buying it at all . If the nao drops and ao stays low then we could see cold till then i doubt it, i feel around 18th nao may drop if we are lucky due to strat events last week.this is only my take on things , no one can predict weather past a few days .

Stevek101

redsunset wrote: »

I have renamed thread to reflect the possibility of a cold reload back our direction. Models will have to start backing each other up on this but as the Siberian blast has been deflected, this is something else to talk about.

Just a suggestion, but as was the case in the past should threads not be locked rather than renamed with a new thread opened. It is making it a nightmare to look back for events with so many name changes...

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

Ireland will remain outside the fridge till the nao drops if anything it gets more pos by the day up to 16 days out, hence no cold for us and i dont buy uk staying very cold by next week ireland and uk will be mild . Gfs is over playing the cold reload im not buying it at all . If the nao drops and ao stays low then we could see cold till then i doubt it, i feel around 18th nao may drop if we are lucky due to strat events last week.this is only my take on things , no one can predict weather past a few days .

Your fascinated by the NAO , its not the be all and end all for cold on these shores, especially with AO so negative,

A lot of oomph has been taken out of the Atlantic the last few weeks, even now when the milder interlude come through the atlantic wont be roaring through and is more than likely to get pushed back somewhat and not to forger the phase 8 MJO.

boatbuilder

That ECMWF +240 looks nice. I know its FI but what type of weather / temps would that bring if it came off? Looks like the cold would keep coming south a good bit further too...
By the way, I've been following the forum these last few weeks and its interesting stuff! Thanks to all who contribute....I've learned a lot so far.