Possible Cold Reload

dfbemt

Jean Byrne, on the 6 o'clock news, showing 5 - 10cms of snow in England tomorrow.

Absolutely stunning, and the snow of course.....

And the forecast for Ireland ? Rain, rain and rain :mad:

dfx-

All the models and charts in us plebs' thread has me confuzzled

Wild Bill

Most places will be frost free for the first half of next week, but there will be a widespread severe frost next Wednesday night as temperatures fall close to freezing.

- Met Eireann

So, "close to freezing" is now a

"severe frost"

Must come from the same expectation management school as those folk here who get excited about non-stick sleety snow! :cool:

jimmynokia

on TWITTER

Snow Information UK @snowinformation Reply Retweeted Favorite · Open
Models suggesting a big snow event for Wednesday (especially for Ireland) but a bit too far out to be sure. #uksnow

https://twitter.com/#!/snowinformation

oisingeogho

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

sunbabe08

dfbemt wrote: »

Jean Byrne, on the 6 o'clock news, showing 5 - 10cms of snow in England tomorrow.

Absolutely stunning, and the snow of course.....

And the forecast for Ireland ? Rain, rain and rain :mad:

i saw that. seriously how cruel is mother nature being to us we're getting rain and warm temperatures, while only a couple hundred miles away from us is getting 5-10cm of snow tomorrow.:(

desolate sun

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i saw that. seriously how cruel is mother nature being to us we're getting rain and warm temperatures, while only a couple hundred miles away from us is getting 5-10cm of snow tomorrow.:(

I know, it's terrible. Europe is getting crazy snow and we get rain despite the low temperatures over the past few days. It's been flipping freezing here. My house is really cold and we still get rain :mad:

I just need a week of snow (not the crazy snow from Europe - don't want people dying) before the winter ends. Just one week.

I NEED SNOW!!

jo06555

desolate sun wrote: »

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i saw that. seriously how cruel is mother nature being to us we're getting rain and warm temperatures, while only a couple hundred miles away from us is getting 5-10cm of snow tomorrow.:(

I know, it's terrible. Europe is getting crazy snow and we get rain despite the low temperatures over the past few days. It's been flipping freezing here. My house is really cold and we still get rain :mad:

I just need a week of snow (not the crazy snow from Europe - don't want people dying) before the winter ends. Just one week.

I NEED SNOW!!

Tonight especially is cold surely this cold snowy spell might move further west over the next few days?????

dfx-

desolate sun wrote: »

I know, it's terrible. Europe is getting crazy snow and we get rain despite the low temperatures over the past few days. It's been flipping freezing here. My house is really cold and we still get rain :mad:

There was a great BBC forecast last night where they had the plunging blue and then one single streak of orange which was the width and height of Ireland on its map..possibly worth kicking the television screen in for

Fully Established

It,s like De Javu again on here it seems to me that it,s wishful thinking on many a poster here looking for snow than actually interpreting the charts,this time last week for example we were looking at freezing cold and snow from wednesday onwards all for it not to materialise and here we go again looking in some cases a week ahead that is an eternity in weather as Michael Fish said yesterday "the accurate forecast is T-48hrs".

Gonzo

the cold has definitely stuck around here for a little bit longer than expected, currently 0C here and -1C at Dublin Airport.

Redsunset

Fully Established wrote: »

It,s like De Javu again on here it seems to me that it,s wishful thinking on many a poster here looking for snow than actually interpreting the charts,this time last week for example we were looking at freezing cold and snow from wednesday onwards all for it not to materialise and here we go again looking in some cases a week ahead that is an eternity in weather as Michael Fish said yesterday "the accurate forecast is T-48hrs".

May I suggest you find another hobby then because this is the game here. We interpret the charts just fine thank you very much. Computer models throw up lots of possible outcomes and we simply try find which is on the right track. Yes there are snow hopers here but also many more types of each weather element enthusiast. Frustration can be a big problem on here when chasing the crock of gold however to the long time member here that is half the fun even if tempers do flare from time to time.

We try to blend in successive model runs to help build a bigger picture of the eventual outcome. The models are usually alot more accurate around 72-120 however lots of
chaos in the lower and now upper atmosphere drag down accuracy to smaller timescales. Please see Strat Warm thread about this.

Anyway serious patience is needed when things go pear shaped and sometimes may have to last another year so I officially welcome you to the Roller coaster;)

sunbabe08

desolate sun wrote: »

I know, it's terrible. Europe is getting crazy snow and we get rain despite the low temperatures over the past few days. It's been flipping freezing here. My house is really cold and we still get rain :mad:

I just need a week of snow (not the crazy snow from Europe - don't want people dying) before the winter ends. Just one week.

I NEED SNOW!!

yes, some one understands my pain.

Sponge Bob

redsunset wrote: »

May I suggest you find another hobby then because this is the game here. We interpret the charts just fine thank you very much. Computer models throw up lots of possible outcomes and we simply try find which is on the right track.

Might I point out that a CHART means 0-96 hours while a MODEL means 0-500 hours...as these phrases are generally used around here.

Trogdor

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Might I point out that a CHART means 0-96 hours while a MODEL means 0-500 hours...as these phrases are generally used around here.

Bit OT but I don't think this is true. A model is just a computer program that outputs numerical predictions, from 0 hours to infinity hours potentially depending on how long its let run. I don't think it has to have a time constraint to be defined as a "model". Also i would call any map of weather conditions produced by these numerical outputs a chart so again the term chart would also be open-ended, so neither of the highlighted terms are subject to any time kind of time constraints as far as i know.

Redsunset

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Might I point out that a CHART means 0-96 hours while a MODEL means 0-500 hours...as these phrases are generally used around here.

Prognostic charts are generated by the computer models to X time in the future.
Where are you getting the time frame from?
I simply said we look at the charts that the models generate for us.
I would be very happy to see you back up your info please.

Sure the CFS model runs way way past 500 hours.

I really don't see what your getting at here ,please explain.

Iancar29

BAttleground has begun in the UK ... Rain, sleet, freeing rain and snow all showing up!

Kippure

Just on Mid month. What the Met are more a less saying.



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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/page__view__findpost__p__2245551

In line with northern blocking around the same time.

munsterlegend

I presume by Met kippure you mean Met Eireann?

Kippure

munsterlegend wrote: »

I presume by Met kippure you mean Met Eireann?

No, the English Met office.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Feb 2012 to Friday 17 Feb 2012:
There is likely to be a northwest-southeast split across the UK for much of the period through to mid-February. Southern, central and eastern areas should be largely dry and bright, but often cold or very cold with hard overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches. Further north and west conditions should be often less cold but windier, with bands of rain becoming slow-moving, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally over higher ground. During the middle weekend there are some signs that unsettled conditions to the northwest could extend a little further south. During the following working week, although the northwest-southeast split should initially reassert itself, conditions in the northwest may increasingly spread south and eastwards to displace some of the drier, brighter and more settled weather.

Updated: 1217 on Fri 3 Feb 2012

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Feb 2012 to Saturday 3 Mar 2012:
Mainly cold weather looks likely to prevail during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures expected to be below average for much of the time. Rainfall amounts will probably be near or below average in many areas, but possibly above average over southern Britain. Meanwhile, with below average temperatures expected, there is the potential for some snow at times.

Updated: 1259 on Fri 3 Feb 2012

Redsunset

Yes amazing evidence for a very negative AO soon. This could well indeed be something special.

CFS says yes to negataive AO too.

jo06555

redsunset wrote: »

Yes amazing evidence for a very negative AO soon. This could well indeed be something special.

CFS says yes to negataive AO too.

Sorry for my ignorance but what exactly does this mean in plain terms

Redsunset

High latitude blocking (Negative Arctic Oscillation) spilling down True Arctic air to lower latitudes,Just pray we're on right side of things or else its mild

Sponge Bob

redsunset wrote: »

I really don't see what your getting at here ,please explain.

Charts are human..eg the UK Fax chart and Models are computers. Humans dont prepare a chart beyond around 96 hours. Therefore we tend to use Model for 'computer says' and Charts for 'human looking at models makes a call and says' when we use the phrase chart or model around here.

Thats all.

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

High latitude blocking (Negative Arctic Oscillation) spilling down True Arctic air to lower latitudes,Just pray we're on right side of things or else its mild

Knowing our luck, the split will be in the Irish Sea with England and Wales getting snow and Ireland having the rain :D

D

Sponge Bob

jo06555 wrote: »

Sorry for my ignorance but what exactly does this mean in plain terms

Normally there is a single large west east airflow around the pole high up. This is the AO. If it fragments or is shifted off its centre over the pole into you may get a mix of west east and east west airflows high up..the individual blobs.

East west originating Siberia means......?????

Deep Easterly

Snowing in Galway at the moment. It isn't really but I am pretending the rain is snow.

Redsunset

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Charts are human..eg the UK Fax chart and Models are computers. Humans dont prepare a chart beyond around 96 hours. Therefore we tend to use Model for 'computer says' and Charts for 'human looking at models makes a call and says' when we use the phrase chart or model around here.

Thats all.

Prognostic charts generated by computer models are more commonly known as machine-made forecasts.

I wasn't talking about human input.
Your being very picky and present a weak argument. That is all, now lets move on.

dacogawa

It's a long way off but this has to be just wishful thinking, doesn't it ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

BAttleground has begun in the UK ... Rain, sleet, freeing rain and snow all showing up!

You paid for it too so !

It better bloody snow or I want my £3 back ! :pac: