Possible Cold Reload

up for anything

baraca wrote: »

Yes fog!!!!

delw wrote: »

Lucky you :cool:

This made me laugh and laugh. We are truly desperate for some weather of any kind.

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

Things are continuing as I thought they would. We have the strong poleward flow over Alaska, with the large NE Canadian trough retreating back westwards to allow the Azores high to build northwestards. They poleward flow towards Alaska looks like it may not build the Greenland high for long, though, and with zonality looking like increasing from eastern Asia to North America, some energy looks like setting up a progressive pattern again for much of the globe. The high to our west will probably be short-lived, with the NAO turing postitive again for the last decade of the month. So if we don't get something from next week's northerly (which seems increasingly like missing us to the east) then we could be looking at westerlies again for the rest of the month.

So in layman's terms, the final nail in the coffin of any hopes of snow for Ireland this winter?

D

DanRu

I reckon we are in for a dumping of snow over the next 10-14 days. Lots of cold air from the north waiting to join up with that cold block over Europe plus a reload from the east which the charts are having trouble projecting. Throw in a vortex split and we have slush puppy heaven. I'm off to to buy some blue dye and bring some colour to the countryside.

ninebeanrows

UKM the only solace this morning.

The benefit of it being probably the most reliable model for forecasters.

ECM and GFS have us in the high with cold nights and reasonable days.

Nabber

It might be time to give up the ghost.

I think this winter has been quite good in a practical sense. Got one morning of snow in Dublin which lasted about 1-2 hours.

I think we can be thankful that we didn't get hit with -10 and below. A lot died in Europe as a direct cause of the weather.

We saved on gas, oil, electricity, ect. Lets hope the Azores high sticks around to enjoy the summer with us.

Bring on 2012/2013. Things can only get better next winter.

ltdslipdiff

Nabber wrote: »

It might be time to give up the ghost.

I think this winter has been quite good in a practical sense. Got one morning of snow in Dublin which lasted about 1-2 hours.

I think we can be thankful that we didn't get hit with -10 and below. A lot died in Europe as a direct cause of the weather.

We saved on gas, oil, electricity, ect. Lets hope the Azores high sticks around to enjoy the summer with us.

Bring on 2012/2013. Things can only get better next winter.

Pains me to say it, but you're probably right. Missed out completely down south with any snow, but it can't possibly be as bad next year !!

srocliffe

Nabber wrote: »

Got one morning of snow in Dublin which lasted about 1-2 hours.

When did this snow happen, I don't remember it, I must have been asleep

weatherfiend

Nabber wrote: »

It might be time to give up the ghost.

I think this winter has been quite good in a practical sense. Got one morning of snow in Dublin which lasted about 1-2 hours.

I think we can be thankful that we didn't get hit with -10 and below. A lot died in Europe as a direct cause of the weather.

We saved on gas, oil, electricity, ect. Lets hope the Azores high sticks around to enjoy the summer with us.

Bring on 2012/2013. Things can only get better next winter.

My problem is we didn't really save on bills. It was so dark a lot of the time we needed lights on and cold enough to have the heating on for a large part of the time. It feels really cold today, really snow like and yet the temps are still hovering at the 4 degree mark - what the hell is going on??

Diamond Dust

weatherfiend wrote: »

My problem is we didn't really save on bills. It was so dark a lot of the time we needed lights on and cold enough to have the heating on for a large part of the time. It feels really cold today, really snow like and yet the temps are still hovering at the 4 degree mark - what the hell is going on??

I agree also this damp wet weather is much worse then frosty weather, no saving on heating at all. If this is what we're in for , for the rest of the year I'm definitely emmigrating.

average_runner

Have to say fair play to Su Campu for calling things correctly. He doesnt seem to bother with trying to give people false hope, but instead is straight down the middle.

Musicman2000

average_runner wrote: »

Have to say fair play to Su Campu for calling things correctly. He doesnt seem to bother with trying to give people false hope, but instead is straight down the middle.

Yeah he knows he stuff allright and hats off But dont be patting anyone on the back yet till the end of the month:)

Daniel2590

srocliffe wrote: »

When did this snow happen, I don't remember it, I must have been asleep

17th Dec I think.

Nabber

weatherfiend wrote: »

My problem is we didn't really save on bills. It was so dark a lot of the time we needed lights on and cold enough to have the heating on for a large part of the time. It feels really cold today, really snow like and yet the temps are still hovering at the 4 degree mark - what the hell is going on??

I noticed the difference. The heating was on maybe 2 times a day. A few times the house was too warm. Last year if the heting was off for 4hours plus you could feel it get cold fast.
Maybe it's just me. But compare your bills. Then you'll know

Wild Bill

Daniel2590 wrote: »

17th Dec I think.

Actually, 'twas the 16th.




Not quite a blizzard though.

srocliffe

This must have been a more localised event, there was definitely no lying snow of any kind this winter in my part of Dublin.

I do remember a fall of sleet one morning (maybe the same morning) that lasted about 5 minutes, but definitely nothing like what your picture shows.

dsmythy

srocliffe wrote: »

This must have been a more localised event, there was definitely no lying snow of any kind this winter in my part of Dublin.

I do remember a fall of sleet one morning (maybe the same morning) that lasted about 5 minutes, but definitely nothing like what your picture shows.

I remember that morning travelling on a bus from Swords to City Centre with snow falling for first half of the journey.

mike65

Time for a thread title change?

Wild Bill

srocliffe wrote: »

This must have been a more localised event, there was definitely no lying snow of any kind this winter in my part of Dublin.

I do remember a fall of sleet one morning (maybe the same morning) that lasted about 5 minutes, but definitely nothing like what your picture shows.

Widespread above 100m asl; western and northern suburbs and the southern/eastern foothills.

DOCARCH

Got that snow here too. Amounted to about 1/4 of a cm! Lasted on the ground for maybe 2 hours.

pistolpetes11

Feel free to carry on general discussions on any upcoming weather in here be it hot or cold , I think our possible cold reload thread has run its course now.

Hopefully there will be something interesting coming up in the way of a decent Northerly

pistolpetes11

Locking this one up :

Feel free to continue here : http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76987906#post76987906

ninebeanrows

Perhaps we should have kept the other thread open as not much as changed since yesterday?

18z going more UKM with its output tonight.

ZX7R

we had some snow showes 16 december in kildare as well didnt stick ,i rember it well as mz sister rang me at 6.30 in the morning to tell me it was snowing:)

Lucreto

I was watching the world weather there a few minutes ago and Ireland it the only country in the northern hemisphere in double digits.:mad:

200motels

Lucreto wrote: »

I was watching the world weather there a few minutes ago and Ireland it the only country in the northern hemisphere in double digits.:mad:

I'd say you meant Europe, Portugal and Spain have double digits as well.

Lucreto

200motels wrote: »

I'd say you meant Europe, Portugal and Spain have double digits as well.

It didn't have a temperature for Portugal but has 2c in Spain while Ireland had 10c.

Snow in the Sahara region as well.

Frack

Hi all

Long time lurker and first time poster. Just have to say that I have a feeling that the cold is coming, obviously not like it was the past two winters but I do think it will get colder over the next two weeks (total hopecast...! )


Thanks to all the regular posters here for all the detail they give in their posts, I have learned so much over the years and I am addicted to the daily peer reviewed arguments that are fought over the never ending battle to figure out why the charts are not to be trusted this week! Must also say, Su Campu, you have been absolutely spot on so far so fair play.

Will try and contribute something to this forum, I am constantly learning and hopefully one day i'll be in a position to give my own reading of the charts and the trends from a purely scientific point of view.


Thanks again and fair play to everyone who works/worked to keep this forum running

derekon

blackius wrote: »

Nice.

The ecm is a spoiler though.
Slack northerly and north westerly with the high pressure too near and Berlin airport shut as the low pressure is too far east again barreling in there eventually.

Our flow on that would be a boring 5 to 8 c affair.
Gem is the same.
So you've got to bet on in-between nothingness being the more likely outcome here again with winter hanging on relentlessly in south east England.

Oh why can't I wake up to news like this every morning ? Life would be such a treat! Only joking - the models this year can be summed up in two words. Very frustrating. My own view is that the cold will miss us again and sink down the east coast of England. Just not Ireland's year fo snow I think!

D

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote: »

A lot of needless negativity here.

What do we have on the face of it this morning.

A consistent UKM showing a decent northerly blast.

A Very good GFS upgrading run to run.

An ECM which has improved from 0z and 12z from yesterday, not there yet but not far away.

So all in all decent model output.

What is not likely is a 7 day blast.

What is possible is a 3 day cold shot, bringing the most noteworthy spell of cold weather of the winter

I wouldn't call it "negativity" if you make a useful and valid forecast, even if it's not for a good crack at some snow. The ensembles don't lie, the operational GFS run was consistently an extreme cold outlier and we would be well-served to be cautious and not have our hopes built up...

In any case northerlies just don't deliver anything except teasers or sleety muck for most of Ireland. Ignoring the PV last year, the last decent Northerly outbreaks to affect Ireland were in 00/01 I think.

Elmer Blooker

Glacier Point on Netweather seems to think that the Russian high will build westwards again. (as DM2 and E.Blooker suggested earlier)
We'll see?