Possible Cold Reload

ZX7R

My better half has been on the phone to her parents in poland its -18 and droping
birrr

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Sponge Bob wrote: »

My concern about the GFS, given its provenance, is that it will correct nearer the continental US and will err further away. More so with half the Hemisphere covered with a single enormous contigous mass of cold that reaches Alaska.

So what would they try most to get right?? Alaska or Ireland??? Shall we wait for the more 'Eurocentric' ECM and Hirlam then??

Tis why I was looking to get verification stats on how things are/were playing out .

I would suspect it would correct nearer continental US

Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.

hotwhiskey

mcriot29 wrote: »

Its a a big let down from yesterdays gfs which showed irelsnd deep in a freeze for a few days, now all models agree. Ireland gets shag all in terms of cold infact even uk does not do much better , we need that cold pushed past west ireland , after one let down after another i think this winter will be the winter that never was

Why is everyone complaning and the easterly has not come yet!!!

konman

Wild Bill wrote: »

Twenty hours non-stop and counting..........

all in a normal day for us in the whest lol

Sponge Bob

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I would suspect it would correct nearer continental US

Well it should, whose tax dollars paid for it??

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.

Found something here on Ryan Muae's Site

http://policlimate.com/weather/verification.html

Next thing is to try and get my head around them

snow ghost

mcriot29 wrote: »

Its a a big let down from yesterdays gfs which showed irelsnd deep in a freeze for a few days, now all models agree. Ireland gets shag all in terms of cold infact even uk does not do much better , we need that cold pushed past west ireland , after one let down after another i think this winter will be the winter that never was

This could play out either way.

I see the positive in having such a tightrope scenario and I favour a heavy snowfall outcome based soley on a hunch, the set-up and because it is February and some past experience tells me this could happen.

mothel

What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated!

opr

mothel wrote: »

What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated!

Fantasy Island - It relates to the fact that the charts in that time period tend to be more of a fantasy nature than an actual reliable representation of what will happen. Basically too far out for accurate predictions.

Opr

Sponge Bob

FI is anything beyond 144 hours where models are getting a bit "Fantasy"

pistolpetes11

mothel wrote: »

What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated!

Its called Fantasy Island ,

Basically means the output on the charts is outside of a reliable timeframe for them to verify.

When the models are having a hard time getting to grips with a setup the FI is said to be around 72-96hrs but usually after 144 hours would be the normal FI time

thomasj

mothel wrote: »

What's FI? Can't ask those scary people on the "model discussion only thread" I might get excommunicated!

Its fantasy island - its where you see forecasts days away people dream of only for reality to sink in closer to the time

Mountainsandh

Goddamit we deserve that cold, we've earned it with all that rain !

mothel

Thank you! There was I thinking it was some highly technical meteorological reference!

doccy

snow ghost wrote: »

This could play out either way.

I see the positive in having such a tightrope scenario and I favour a heavy snowfall outcome based soley on a hunch, the set-up and because it is February and some past experience tells me this could happen.

You may well be right.

BLIZZARD7

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.

Ehh? Anything after +96hrs is firmly into FI!!! 120 to 144hrs is most definitley FI on GFS and ECM and every other model for that matter! Surely the fact that the charts have changed so much in the last 24 hours at that timeframe prove that??? Oh and we have increasing snow event potential at just +48hrs, the chance of snow falling over Ireland at this timeframe has increased significantly since last nights output! So how +144hrs is not FI is beyond me!


Expecting upgrades in the morning- This is far from over everyone!




Dan

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Looks like the cold freaks will be happy for 4 maybe 5 days at most, Sunday looks like being double figures (just) for many.

Snowc wrote: »

You are in no postion to be using the word freak with your 70,862posts on an internet forum .I would love some cold dry weather for a change.

When you are something more than a bit of fluff on boards backside you can make such a comment.

pistolpetes11

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Ehh? Anything after +96hrs is firmly into FI!!! 120 to 144hrs is most definitley FI on GFS and ECM and every other model for that matter! Surely the fact that the charts have changed so much in the last 24 hours at that timeframe prove that??? Oh and we have increasing snow event potential at just +48hrs, the chance of snow falling over Ireland at this timeframe has increased significantly since last nights output! So how +144hrs is not FI is beyond me!


Expecting upgrades in the morning- This is far from over everyone!




Dan

Where can I get a chart from 144 hrs ago ?

Just to match it up and see .

snow ghost

mike65 wrote: »

When you are something more than a bit of fluff on boards backside.

I wouldn't be alluding to being anything more than a 'bit of fluff' on a backside, the only other thing that tends to cling to backsides is brown and does not bare thinking about. :eek:

snow ghost

doccy wrote: »

You may well be right.

We shall see doccy, who knows, but it would be nice to be snowed under.

Harps

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Where can I get a chart from 144 hrs ago ?

Just to match it up and see .

All the previous model runs are available on the archives on meteociel

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1

Or, an easier way to compare with the most recent runs, click the 'Activer Live Compare' thing right above the chart on the normal gfs page, go to the time you want on the current run then highlight over the run you want to compare it with

BLIZZARD7

18z GFS from 144hrs ago- chart for today-


Harps beat me to it-

Quite different to reality dont you think???




Reality (or near enough)



Dan

Wild Bill

konman wrote: »

all in a normal day for us in the whest lol

26mm a normal day! :eek:

Now 24 hours non-stop.......

Sponge Bob

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Where can I get a chart from 144 hrs ago ?

Just to match it up and see .

Meteociel.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/gfs-2012011806-0-144.png?6

Parse the link carefully...run date, run time in z, hours out at that time etc and edit the link to suit.

oterra

Met are siding towards cold continuing next weekend...

"Temperatures will only range from 3 to 6 degrees by day and will fall as low as -5 degrees in places at night. Winds will be mostly light to moderate and east to southeast in direction. Current indication suggest that next weekend will continue very cold with a risk of wintry showers on east and south coasts."

Trogdor

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Bout 80 % Chance of the 144 chart verifying

About 5% chance of the 228 chart verifying.

Thats why I was asking earlier on bout verification stats, because 9/10 times we get a mild chart after T96 the first thing people have been saying is "thats FI"

Whilst I agreed with that during the week I feel the models must have some sort of hold on how things are playing out now.

Probably not quite the type of verification you were after but the info on this page compares the accuracy of the bigger models, ecm, gfs, ukmo etc so you can see which ones are preforming best.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

e.g.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

Harps

Also, the model verification stats are here (click 5 days or whatever else you want), not sure if they're showing percentage but give an idea of how each major model is performing. Generally at 5 days it seems to be ECMWF - UKMO - GEM - GFS in that order

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

Edit: Haha, just beaten to it :P

Villain

Latest forecast on iwo.ie http://www.iwo.ie/2012/01/30/weather-forecast-colder-snow-a-possibility-30112/

It's going to be a rough week trying to forecast

blackius

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Google doesn't seem to be throwing anything up with regard recent verification stats. I would suspect quite high as what's at 60 hrs now was definitely modelled accuarately at 120 hrs a few days back. I cannot stress enough that 120 to 144hrs is NOT FI on the GFS and ECM anyway.

but there were several showing different options around that time.
Saying the above doesn't shed light on verification because it seems random ie one of them was bound to be nearer right.


Any option now could also verify or none.Welcome to chaos theory everyone.

jimmy.d

tue night wed next fri and sathttp://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-gfs-mslp-forecast.htm

sdanseo

jimmy.d wrote: »

tue night wed next fri and sathttp://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-gfs-mslp-forecast.htm

I prefer this one

mickger844posts

Latest Met Eireann forecast sums up the current situation pretty well i feel.


Tomorrow

Cloudy on Tuesday with rain in many areas and some sleet in parts of the north and east with some snow on higher ground. Some drier periods will develop in places later in the day. Very cold in Ulster and Leinster and turning cold everywhere by evening.

Outlook

Very cold weather in store for much of the rest of this week with predominately easterly winds.
Rain, sleet and some wet snow will clear southwards on Tuesday night and it will become very cold with clearing skies and temperatures falling to between 0 and -3 degrees with frost and icy conditions developing.
Wednesday and Thursday will be very cold dry days in many areas but temperatures only rising to 2 to 4 degrees in the afternoons highest in far western areas. And there is a risk that some wintry showers of hail or snow may affect parts of the east and south coasts at times.
Very cold, frosty, icy nights with temperatures plummeting to between -2 to -7 degrees and the danger of some freezing fog also. There is a good deal of uncertainty about the prospects for the following few days as there will be a battle going on between the very cold air coming from the east and the milder air coming in off the Atlantic. The latest indications suggest it will become less cold especially in western areas during Friday and Saturday with rain moving in off the Atlantic and spreading eastwards, however a danger exists that this could bring some snow further east if the cold air persists in more midland and eastern areas.

munsterlegend

It looks like the GFS v the european models though its not looking good that the east will prevail. Still there is time for changes this far in advance and met eireann are not positive this is how it will turn out. Also MT reckons its 50/50 so it will be interesting model watching for another few days yet.

Strangegravy

Harps wrote: »

All the previous model runs are available on the archives on meteociel

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1

Or, an easier way to compare with the most recent runs, click the 'Activer Live Compare' thing right above the chart on the normal gfs page, go to the time you want on the current run then highlight over the run you want to compare it with

Niiiiiiice........ I'd forgotten about this! Well there goes all the college work I'd planned for this morning!

With just a quick look at the recent ECM model charts, it doesn't really start to get a firm hold on the current situation until 72hrs, and even at that, it still doesn't have the speed of the easterly spot on. And at 96hrs... it had -2 uppers for most Britain, the reality today is -6 to -8!!

So, in essence, still loads of fun to be had watching this bad boy evolve!

whataboutnow

What are the prospects of rain turning to snow in eastern Donegal tonight?
cheers in advance

whataboutnow

Thanks very much harps..much appreciated
We are well over due,we haven't got our usual northern blast this year

munsterlegend

hopefully the european models will show a similar westward trend though that would be too good to be true!

Rebelbrowser

6z GFS is an upgrade in the short term. Also its precipitation charts look interesting tomorrow as the front clears away south west. Looks like back edge snow for much of us if this chart is to be believed. Either way we are about 24 hours from radar watching - my favourite bit of these cold spells!

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

6z GFS is an upgrade in the short term. Also its precipitation charts look interesting tomorrow as the front clears away south west. Looks like back edge snow for much of us if this chart is to be believed. Either way we are about 24 hours from radar watching - my favourite bit of these cold spells!

hope you are right but still sceptical until the european charts show a westward trend..it will be very interesting model watching.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

hope you are right but still sceptical until the european charts show a westward trend..it will be very interesting model watching.

To be a bit IMBY about it Munsterlegend, the precipitation charts on GFS for the next ten days are postively pornographic for us in Cork! I'd take 20% of what they are suggesting now.

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

To be a bit IMBY about it Munsterlegend, the precipitation charts on GFS for the next ten days are postively pornographic for us in Cork! I'd take 20% of what they are suggesting now.

GFS tends to do that but not materialise! for ireland in general and in particular cork i don't believe it until its falling outside as always so marginal. would prefer the ecm/ukmo to show a westward trend this afternoon to raise hopes..

YanSno

i think there could be some explosive streamers from he irish sea on wed n thur.The gradient is good, you don't necessarily need much more than 25 knots of gradient to produce mega-streamer activity.

M.T. Cranium

I'm not totally sold on the westward extent either (yet) but it's beginning to look like a strong hit on the east is more certain now. If Friday turns out to be the day of maximum westward progress of the Siberian air, that could turn out to be anywhere within western Ireland now or even past the west coast, but the 50-50 bet would be Cork to Mace Head.

Sponge Bob

MT also posted an update in the model thread just now.... one that should get the snow bunnies lepping.

YanSno

for the east, I think the country needs to start preparing for the certainty of extreme cold and locally disruptive snowfalls, because that looks 99% likely now and will have a considerable cost as well as being a severe health hazard for the elderly and disabled. This isn't going to be a dip down to -5, it's going to be a plunge down into the -10 to -15 range in many parts.there may well be a rash of problems with frozen water systems and possibly situations where snow contributes to frozen infrastructure locally. There is an element of flash freeze suggested by the rapid onset of the severe cold.

Sponge Bob

Only in Leinster from the look of it Yan. I'll be safe enough in the Wesht until friday.

jo06555

None of this could head south east as well could it???

only one

There's a lot of talk about the east getting snow but how about us guys in the south east ? Cork / Waterford ? We would like some snow lol

DominoDub

269 people on the forum ...must be some snow on the way

only one

mickger844posts wrote: »

only one wrote: »

There's a lot of talk about the east getting snow but how about us guys in the south east ? Cork / Waterford ? We would like some snow lol

Snow potential chart for Thursday 15hrs.

That looks good cheers