Possible Cold Reload

Tom Cruises Left Nut

snow ghost wrote: »

I got chills they multiplying.

Lol, you need someone to talk to man !! :pac:

mcriot29

t|nt|n wrote: »

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Looking at the glass "half full" & think of the winter as a whole if you like cold wx enjoy the wk ahead, enjoy the cold that WILL happen...

Poor Matt, I can imagine hin there shaking with a half empty bottle of whiskey beside him !

It suppose to get mild monday before cold on tues pity cause maybe that sleet could turn to snow

sunbabe08

woot!!!! Evelyn giving us good news :D

Sponge Bob

snow ghost wrote: »

I got chills they multiplying.

One of the more accurate 'Cold' forecasts of the winter that.

Lucky you survived taking photos of a hurricane in the dark ( for Baraca) to make it eh!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

sunbabe08 wrote: »

woot!!!! Evelyn giving us good news :D

And said what ?

mcriot29

t|nt|n wrote: »

sunbabe08 wrote: »

woot!!!! Evelyn giving us good news :D

And said what ?

Id rather miss byrne give us the good news in here leather dress

ninebeanrows

Lets hope the GFS 18z can move towards the ECM 12z OP with regard to things around T48. Bump up the low and at least make the snap have a better bite.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Lets hope the GFS 18z can move towards the ECM 12z OP with regard to things around T48. Bump up the low and at least make the snap have a better bite.

Its time for a game of spot the difference

NeoRox

Lets hope the GFS 18z can move towards the ECM 12z OP with regard to things around T48. Bump up the low and at least make the snap have a better bite.

t|nt|n wrote: »

Its time for a game of spot the difference

Its time to break out the enigma machine for us normals to decipher that

thomasj

t|nt|n wrote: »

sunbabe08 wrote: »

woot!!!! Evelyn giving us good news :D

And said what ?

Nothing that hasnt been said here really

Easterly coming from russia/siberia from tuesday

Current rain will die out by morning but another heavy band coming from the west could cause localised flooding.

From tuesday rain could turn to sleet possibly snow

No details really beyond tuesday only that next week will become biterly cold

M.T. Cranium

Suspect we are now into the inevitable cycle of downgrade-upgrade that always seems to precede any kind of easterly event. Models are trying to resolve issues around connection of 1062 mb centre in Karelia to even stronger 1073 mb centre in north central Russia. Does the western centre have a future or is it going to be reabsorbed for a later round of blocking?

I suspect we'll see upgrades again once this western centre feeds a separate arctic high over Norway. The huge mound of high pressure further east looks more like a March player to me, I foresee an entirely separate round of blocking and retrograde flow in second half of March and this seems like the operating centre for that.

In any case, there is enough deep cold grazing east coast of Ireland on these 12z runs to maintain an alert for snow in east coast counties Thursday and Friday. The breakdown may however begin about as quickly as the cold air arrives. That could in fact make for a heavier snowfall event, so the details will be very significant. There does seem a good chance that parts of the west will never get into the cold air and remain mild. Would say the most likely western boundary for cold is about Donegal Bay to Athlone to Waterford, so in that zone some issues with freezing rain may develop later in the week. However, this is based on model consensus today, we could be revising each day to Wednesday the way this is playing out.

Eastcoastryan

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Suspect we are now into the inevitable cycle of downgrade-upgrade that always seems to precede any kind of easterly event. Models are trying to resolve issues around connection of 1062 mb centre in Karelia to even stronger 1073 mb centre in north central Russia. Does the western centre have a future or is it going to be reabsorbed for a later round of blocking?

I suspect we'll see upgrades again once this western centre feeds a separate arctic high over Norway. The huge mound of high pressure further east looks more like a March player to me, I foresee an entirely separate round of blocking and retrograde flow in second half of March and this seems like the operating centre for that.

In any case, there is enough deep cold grazing east coast of Ireland on these 12z runs to maintain an alert for snow in east coast counties Thursday and Friday. The breakdown may however begin about as quickly as the cold air arrives. That could in fact make for a heavier snowfall event, so the details will be very significant. There does seem a good chance that parts of the west will never get into the cold air and remain mild. Would say the most likely western boundary for cold is about Donegal Bay to Athlone to Waterford, so in that zone some issues with freezing rain may develop later in the week. However, this is based on model consensus today, we could be revising each day to Wednesday the way this is playing out.

Hi MT, do you see any potential for Snowfall in the East on Tuesday night into Wednesday?

BEASTERLY

Does anybody remember if we got such downgrades at such close time frames coming up to our freezes of recent years?

Trotter

I've just noticed that Bonnie Tyler has named the GFS 'Bright Eyes' and released an emergency song about it. She's eager to see the 18Z. We salute her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-sCrhRPCMg

opr

To sink or not to sink that is the question!

Opr

opr

Musicman2000 wrote: »

People need to remember out to 96/102hrs is the reliable time frame at the moment.

It's hard to forget with someone saying it every second post :pac:

Opr

Musicman2000

opr wrote: »

It's hard to forget with someone saying it every second post :pac:

Opr

Some people seem to forget this even if it is said:D Block looking at bit stronger.

vicwatson

I watched the BBC weather on Countryfile tonight and they showed the forecast as the warm front sitting right over Ireland and into the Irish Sea on Wednesday, then I switch on Evelyn after the 9 news and Met Eireann are showing the warm front sitting out beyond the west coast of Ireland for Wednesday also. Obviously ME expecting a push back from the high pressure, more than BBC

nacho libre

opr wrote: »

To sink or not to sink that is the question!

Opr

or

could it be a case of short term pain for long term gain. thinking about it, didn't we have a similar mild blip back in december 2010, before high pressure moved towards Greenland. Although granted many in the east of the country had enjoyed a fair amount of snow beforehand.

K_1

nacho libre wrote: »

or

could it be a case of short term pain for long term gain. thinking about it, didn't we have a similar mild blip back in december 2010, before high pressure moved towards Greenland. Although granted many in the east of the country had enjoyed a fair amount of snow beforehand.

But delaying two weeks or so after this episode pushes it out to the middle of February, add another week for the inevitable set backs and suddenly we're starting to get into trouble.

Glass half empty?! :P

nacho libre

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Does anybody remember if we got such downgrades at such close time frames coming up to our freezes of recent years?

i think in the run up to the second cold outbreak in December 2010 the ecm had a slight wobble two or three days beforehand - it showed the cold air out in the Atlantic, with us under a warmer sector of air.

nacho libre

K_1 wrote: »

But delaying two weeks or so after this episode pushes it out to the middle of February, add another week for the inevitable set backs and suddenly we're starting to get into trouble.

Glass half empty?! :P

that still leaves us with a week of bitter cold and snow at the end of February:cool:

sure the sun would be stronger, but if the airmass is cold enough, and the snow accumulates, the effects of the stronger sun can be counteracted! i'd take it anyway after the abysmal winter so far.

nacho libre

my dog likes the latest gfs output.

Lucreto

Vogan doesn't see any decent snow with this system just cold.

Lucreto

nacho libre wrote: »

my dog likes the latest gfs output.

Jesus that dog is frightens me.:eek:

weatherfiend

Wild Bill wrote: »

Twenty hours non-stop and counting..........

And bloody counting!!!!!!

snow ghost

nacho libre wrote: »

my dog likes the latest gfs output.

Lassie Libre

Wild Bill

Must be some heavy snow falling in the Wicklow/Dublin Mountains.

Here at 120m asl it's 3C and raining moderately; wind currently easterly (though it flips around a lot) - in such situations we usually get a rapid fall-off in temperature with height and inlandness - I'd say it's snowing above 400m - and the snow line is dropping by 50m / hour.

Sponge Bob

It's a wrap for the February Blizzard Naming Rights Guys.

"NONE" means exactly what it says. Those Blizzards....if indeed they happen...are forever lost to the lore of the weather forum.

The very best of luck to all you who got the oar in. Happy Blizzarding.

Date in Feb. Name.

1. Oterra's Fury
2. NONE
3. Rebels Raging Snowstorm ( Rebelbrowser)
4. Wolfies Last Blizzard or the Wolfienstein Snow Event. Mods to decide exactly what if it comes to pass.
5. The Redsunset Blizzard
6. Del's Feb Blast ( Delw)
7. The Great Grapel (sic) Shower (Beco)
8. Snowpocalypse (or could I perhaps suggest The Nachoral Borne Blizzard?) ( Nacho Libre)
9. Motels buried in snowfest ( 200 Motels) ...hmm whats wrong with '200 Inches of Snow' dude ???
10. The SnowDance Snowfest - in memory of the shoes (Eskimocat) "wore out dancing to bring about this snowfest"!
11. NONE
12. Diamond's Dusty Snow Day (Diamond DUst)
13. NONE
14. LurrrveFlurries (H2UMrsRobinson)
15. NONE
16. NONE
17. Strangegravy's Birthday Blizzard Bonanza
18. NONE
19. NONE
20. NONE
21. NONE
22. NONE
23. NONE
24. NONE
25. NONE
26. NONE
27. NONE
28. NONE
29. NONE

BEASTERLY

opr wrote: »

It's hard to forget with someone saying it every second post :pac:

Opr

If people say it often enough they might even convince themselves. I really don't think it's true. Nobody was saying it yesterday, only now when post-96hrs shows mild muck that it becomes FI. :rolleyes: