Possible Cold Reload

Sponge Bob

Wibbler wrote: »

What is it about our location that causes the really cold upper air to never make it far over Ireland? It seems to be a feature of every Easterly attack. Is it that we're simply at the end of the line for westward advecting cold, or is the Atlantic actively trying to push the cold air east all the time, or is the Irish Sea too warm? Is it a combination of all three?

All three, add 1x North Sea too.

Mountainsandh

MT on the other thread :

This still favours a strong thermal gradient across Ireland from east to west, with the most likely western extremity of the arctic front looking to be about midway between Waterford and Cork, north-northwest to around Donegal Bay. That point most likely to be reached Thursday night into Friday mid-day before a retreat east begins. Your local forecast will depend on proximity to this boundary and there will almost definitely be two very different regimes leading to quite a contrast, which of course means forecasting will be difficult.

:eek::D

That'd be me sorted. :cool:

davidsr20

Mountainsandh wrote: »

MT on the other thread :
:eek::D

That'd be me sorted. :cool:

Waterford/cork never really get snow

Wild Bill

Cheer up folks......44 hours and still counting......:)

bnt

Alaska is definitely feeling Siberian, according to Wunderground. Parts of the state hit -65°F (-54°C) and the record low of -80°F (-62°C) may have been broken on Saturday, but the monitoring station lost power at -78°F. :eek:

weatherfiend

Wild Bill wrote: »

Cheer up folks......44 hours and still counting......:)

Seriously this bloody rain will never stop!!! How the hell are we to get any frost to get the place ready for all that lovely snow???!!!

I must say today has been great having everybody on board n information from all you guys who know what to look for flowing. Quite often we can get swathes of hours with no posts - usually when you're not horrendously busy and have time to keep watch!! The thing that has kept me positive is wild bill, dm2 etc n partic MT, who has been with us most of the day even tho he's on a different time-zone, have all been keeping us loaded with info. Really, thanks
guys.

only one

davidsr20 wrote: »

Mountainsandh wrote: »

MT on the other thread :
:eek::D

That'd be me sorted. :cool:

Waterford/cork never really get snow

Snow for cork and Waterford ? Doubt it. Snow hates cork and Waterford

compsys

It's snowing in Athens of all places at the moment! The injustice of it all! If it snows there and not here then I just give up

Mountainsandh

only one wrote: »

Snow for cork and Waterford ? Doubt it. Snow hates cork and Waterford

I beg to differ

Xmas 2009


snow 006 by mountainsandheather, on Flickr

Calibos

In terms of meagre snowfalls. Ireland is the Waterford of Europe and Bray is the Waterford of the Eastcoast. There is a reason Waterford is called Waterford and not Snowford

Mountainsandh

Yous are all jealous, and yous will all be sorry on Friday ! (well, here's hoping... )

Nabber

This is snow joke, It is absolutely bucketing down here. It has been all day, everything is covered in it. Breath taking stuff, not many people playing in it.......
melted Snow as far as the eye can see.

Fourteen

Nabber wrote: »

This is snow joke, It is absolutely bucketing down here. It has been all day, everything is covered in it. Breath taking stuff, not many people playing in it.......
melted Snow as far as the eye can see.

Don't bullshit!

Eastcoastryan

Wish I hadn't watched that TV Weather with Evelyn, Sleet was as good as it got.. cold and dry Wednesday and Thursday with The Atlantic and 12 Degrees rolling in after Friday, very depressing.

Calibos

Liquid Snow falling here in Bray too!! or as I like to call it, "Young Snow".

aboyro

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Wish I hadn't watched that TV Weather with Evelyn, Sleet was as good as it got.. cold and dry Wednesday and Thursday with The Atlantic and 12 Degrees rolling in after Friday, very depressing.

feckin heartbreaking, i wish i had'nt watched it too

Nabber

Fourteen wrote: »

Don't bullshit!

No bullsht it has beens pssing melted snow all day here

mothel

Weather after 9 o'clock news on RTE just downgraded the whole thing to a couple of very cold dry days with maybe a shower or 2 until the Atlantic warms it all up again by the weekend! Is that it??

pistolpetes11

Folks here is a post from Glacier Point on Netweather, I would hold him up there with the best of them, Su ,DM2,Deep,MT,Weathercheck,Trog,Red and all the other top contributors on this forum.

GFS products becoming quite enthusiastic for a strong -ve AO developing between 9th and 11th Feb. GFS (parallel) 12z ensembles pretty much what all three runs (both parallel and 'normal') have shown today:




Note the number of members diving into -4 territory at this time and this is very consistent with the downwelling stratospheric signal and the ECM 12z ensemble mean also showing development of a strong -ve AO at day 10.

Strong zonal transport across 30N still showing up on reanalysis plots, but also strong negative mountain torque and positive frictional torques in the mid and high latitudes helping to off set this.

Long range ensemble means are also depicting a strong mid Atlantic ridge as the evolution to our Scandinavian ridge (which by the way still going strong on ensemble means into day 10). The GFS seems very keen on this idea, and the longer that this is picked, you've got to thing a trough dropping to our east is the way forward from mid month on, potentially with a split in the polar vortex at the same time making another Arctic outbreak a logical pattern.





Steady as she goes for sustained cold pattern dominating February - subtle nuances with an attempted breakdown, surface cold, reload easterly and then northerly ?

blackius

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

lostinashford

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Steady as she goes for sustained cold pattern dominating February - subtle nuances with an attempted breakdown, surface cold, reload easterly and then northerly ?

Don't understand most of that but think I like it:D

Yahew

blackius wrote: »

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

He's a fairly knowledgeable chap.

mcriot29

Yahew wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

He's a fairly knowledgeable chap.

The models dont go along with any view of the east winds back any time soon, i think we should be worrying about the next few days frist we have a good chance of snow this week, if only the cold air would come more west

Sponge Bob

lostinashford wrote: »

Don't understand most of that but think I like it:D

Siberian Blast, Atlantic Fartback, More of the Siberian Blast and maybe a Polar Low !

opr

18z looking better so far. Fingers crossed!

Opr

blackius

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yahew wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

He's a fairly knowledgeable chap.

The models dont go along with any view of the east winds back any time soon, i think we should be worrying about the next few days frist we have a good chance of snow this week, if only the cold air would come more west

Ah come on now...thats a sweeping statement..you and I don't know what's going to happen post 120hrs and neither do forecasters.
Some are making interesting cases for a new Scandinavian block forming better oriented.
The bitter cold will still be nearby ready to be tapped if that happens.
There's no reason for too much pessimism ...onwards and upwards!

kittyn

I have to say, with my novice experience mind you........ The models aqre flipping so much, that there is something happening that none of the models can get to grips off. No idea what that is but im hoping its going to be something good........

Trotter

Its odd though, the precip charts would lead me to believe that it'll be blue skies and freezing cold.. unless Im getting it totally wrong. Here in Waterford, we may well be relying on the Irish Sea streamers coming in to visit.

lostinashford

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Siberian Blast, Atlantic Fartback, More of the Siberian Blast and maybe a Polar Low !

That's sounds like weather porn talk to me - I like it

aboyro

Trotter wrote: »

Its odd though, the precip charts would lead me to believe that it'll be blue skies and freezing cold.. unless Im getting it totally wrong. Here in Waterford, we may well be relying on the Irish Sea streamers coming in to visit.

totally agree, we need a seriously special list of events for significant snowfall here. good strong east wind always helps:D

Eastcoastryan

blackius wrote: »

Ah come on now...thats a sweeping statement..you and I don't know what's going to happen post 120hrs and neither do forecasters.
Some are making interesting cases for a new Scandinavian block forming better oriented.
The bitter cold will still be nearby ready to be tapped if that happens.
There's no reason for too much pessimism ...onwards and upwards!

Blackius, I was down your neck of the woods yesterday, I did the Radio Show from The Bridgewater! Quick question... are you still as confident as you were of even a few snow showers over the next few days? RTE Weather earlier had pretty much nothing, are they generally cautious??

Musicman2000

aboyro wrote: »

totally agree, we need a seriously special list of events for significant snowfall here. good strong east wind always helps:D

Would be dry and cold maybe an odd flurry but nothing major.

Lucreto

Sponge Bob

The weather forecast on Radio 1 at 5:55pm mentioned some small snow showers in 'Eastern Coastal' areas over the next few days. If that is what Blackius said then Met Éireann concur.

I didn't see Evelyn mention this possibility.

blackius

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Blackius, I was down your neck of the woods yesterday, I did the Radio Show from The Bridgewater! Quick question... are you still as confident as you were of even a few snow showers over the next few days? RTE Weather earlier had pretty much nothing, are they generally cautious??

Yes its likely that there will be at least some flurries or light snow showers on the east coast tomorrow through to Friday.Hit and miss,some seeing nothing,others seeing a good shower.
Tbh though something more significant is possible but we just don't know.
Ah bridgewater..know it well.
Must drop in to say hello at some stage next time you're down.

Don't take any forecast beyond 48hrs as Gospel on rte yet by the way-too much model uncertainty

TheMilkyPirate

Joe b highlighting just how serious the cold coming into europe is.

"Dark days for Europe as arctic attack liable to bring back memories of Dec 2010.... should last into March"

Interesting that he says it will last into march, Even more optimism for the possibility of a serious reload in a week or two's time.

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM Fax chart is really a bold call.

The 18z GFS Ensembles are very very different.

I think they are all in shock over on Netweather at the fax charts:D

yorlum11

Joe Bastardi via twitter:Dark days for Europe as arctic attack liable to bring back memories of Dec 2010.... should last into March

whataboutnow

Su Campu wrote: »

I would imagine the south and southeast coasts will see the best of any flurries that do form over the next few days. Relatively warm upper levels will prevent deep convection, and although we will see vigorous low level convection, the drier airmass may preclude widespread showers. Those that do form should extend to around 12-15,000 ft. With the larger sea track in the east/southeasterly flow, areas from say Cork to Wexford should see the heaviest. Wales may get in the way for much of the east, but maybe northern Irish Sea coasts will see something.

Hi,how do your rate eastern inland donegal's chances of seeing snow,you seem the most accurate as far as predicting this cold snap thus far
cheers

Sponge Bob

Bastardi is nearly as tiresome as Vogan.

Have a UK Fax @ 96h

jo06555

so we won't get snowy conditions as their is no moisture in the westerly Atlantic front ??? Can that change as id love a dusting of white stuff .......

TheMilkyPirate

He's right though, The continent are in for some serious cold.

jirafa

motherelements wrote: »

Hi all,

My name is motherelements and I fascinated by the weather...but I a little unconventional. I believe I am a seer... I can feel the weather and I dream it. I see no snow... cold yes but no snow apart the high mountains. I feel it in me that the warmer air wil be back in a few days.

Did you also go under the name motherknowsall,,,who used the IWO chatroom to warn us all of of wind storms, to end all windstorms on many occasions,,,only for them, never to arrive ...:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Bastardi is nearly as tiresome as Vogan.

Have a UK Fax @ 96h

A horror show is what that is bob ,

Although I think I'm correct in saying the only support it has is from its own raw data.

Think il hit the hay it's been a emotional day of model following :pac:

hotwhiskey

Taking from Meteo windchill for Saturday. France no words needed.

Sponge Bob

baraca wrote: »

He's right though,

Bastardi is basically right after being basically wrong about Europe since November. Whoop de doo like.

Vogan <snip>, even I outforecasted him at christmas and Sponge Bob ain't no good as a forecaster.

Calibos

Not that I think MT is infallible or anything nor am I doubting what some posters have said here but just this morning MT was talking about a possibility of explosive convection 20-40cm of snow from parts of Wicklow to Meath and Ulster from a SE flow. Has he forgotten about the Wales Shadow or something?

yorlum11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

He's right though,

Bastardi is basically right after being basically wrong about Europe since November. Whoop de doo like.

Vogan is a complete moron, even I outforecasted him at christmas and Sponge Bob ain't no good as a forecaster.

Give sone credit to big Joe lol Vogan is a fruitcake.Bastardi usually over cooks things!!

TheMilkyPirate

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Bastardi is basically right after being basically wrong about Europe since November. Whoop de doo like.

I was using his tweet to highlight the fact that we could get another shot at cold such is the depth of it on the continent, I don't rate Joe b and i didn't imply that.

<snip>

Trogdor

Calibos wrote: »

Not that I think MT is infallible or anything nor am I doubting what some posters have said here but just this morning MT was talking about a possibility of explosive convection 20-40cm of snow from parts of Wicklow to Meath and Ulster from a SE flow. Has he forgotten about the Wales Shadow or something?

Don't really see the problem with streamer potential on the wind direction currently forecast, obviously it really opens up potential for the South coast compared to a North-Easterly but i don't see it hampering the East coast that much. Made a quick illustration below. The sea track on a South-Easterly (For Dublin) is only a bit shorter than a North-Easterly and you can see that in a S-SE flow the potential sea track is actually much longer than in a NE flow.