cattle price bubble... who's going to get caught?

49801

I just can't get over the price of cattle lately!
great if you've cattle to sell but I must say someone is going to loose a $hit load of money.

a chap was telling me that he is looking for black and white bullocks and was prepared to bid 350 with the weight for them but he can't get near them in the marts. surely that sort of money is continental prices for black and whites!

we don't normally buy in animals but I've been looking around this year for breeding stock to try and up our numbers with some tillage ground coming back online to grass. i bid 1050/hd for 4 maiden heifers avg weight of 415kg with SI and LM breeding which i thought was great money for them and i lost out on a bid for the sum of 1225e. Now these where good stock all out of AI but seriously!
Our new bull arrived on fri and I will put him with 9 of our own maiden heifers next weekend. would like to add a few more bought-in's to the group but at this sort of money i'd prefer to keep the money in my pocket.

current factory prices seem to be driving things atm too. while prices are good atm I cant see them staying up this high for the remainder of the year.

blue5000

Hi OP, who is going to lose the most ppl who buy dear cattle or those of us who don't offload while prices are high?

What sort of bull did you buy?

49801

Hi blue
I bought a limmy out of wilodge vantastic.

i know its high time that cattlemen made some money but is just really worry that the current price trends is similar to the property price bubble

whelan1

i think its time to sell whatever you can, sold 3 culls yesterday out of the yard -friesian cows- for 650 each... now they would need good feeding for a while to be killed...happy out i am happy to move anything while i can, cant see how people buying cattle at mad prices are going to make any money

Farmer Pudsey

whelan1 wrote: »

i think its time to sell whatever you can, sold 3 culls yesterday out of the yard -friesian cows- for 650 each... now they would need good feeding for a while to be killed...happy out i am happy to move anything while i can, cant see how people buying cattle at mad prices are going to make any money

Around what weight were they

whelan1

lightest would be 500kg , heaviest over 600kg, bad feet:) need a good bit of feeding to be fit for factory

Farmer Pudsey

If they were not too old they put on 200kgs from now until August average 750 kgs they would kill 365 kgs @ 3.25???? they would be better value than yearling herefords

whelan1

i just want rid, have 35 heifers coming in so am getting rid of some of the dolls i dont want, first time in years i could cull for small reasons:rolleyes:

irishh_bob

just because beef is in a bubble doesnt mean its ready to burst just yet , as hard to believe as things are , thier are logical reasons for the price and demand , thier are people who will inevitabley get burned but those who have the bottle to ride it out for a while will make good money , unless this EU crisis gets a whole lot worse in the next number of months , i dont see cattle collapsing for quite a while

maybe farmers should be less guilty about the good times , i realise its strange territory for them but they might aswell enjoy it

poor farmer

I am hearing that beef prices at the factory are back for the week coming.

Farmer Pudsey

whelan1 wrote: »

i just want rid, have 35 heifers coming in so am getting rid of some of the dolls i dont want, first time in years i could cull for small reasons:rolleyes:

I understand your point however I am just pointing that there are still cattle out there that will possibly make a profit. I think that even O&P cows will be that price and better in August .
However I also think that some of the prices for summer grazeing cattle are crazy 300kg WH Bullocks 750-800 euro even if you get them to 500kgs they will struggle to make 1000 in the September. It is now January a euro a day to feed until March17th (50 euro) 50 cent a day for grass 180 days (90 euro) Veterinary 10 euro, 2kgsd of ration for 6 weeks 20 euro, transport 20 euro, mart fees 20 euro. Total 210 euro. I cannot see any profit on some of the cattle being bought at present.

redzerologhlen

To be honest the way I look at it is that people that buy the same amount of cattle year in year out should be ok because the would have made their money on what they had bought the last couple of years, even if they didnt make anything on this years cattle it balances out if the had managed their funds any way right. Cattle are reported to be scarce worldwide so long may it live I say!! Breeding heifers do seem to be gone a bit out of reach though.

locky76

Excellent brakdown of costs Pudsey,hard to see profit alright.
I hope it stays fine until i sell my 14 in June- 4 culls, 5 heifers and 5 bullocks :rolleyes:.

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I understand your point however I am just pointing that there are still cattle out there that will possibly make a profit. I think that even O&P cows will be that price and better in August .
However I also think that some of the prices for summer grazeing cattle are crazy 300kg WH Bullocks 750-800 euro even if you get them to 500kgs they will struggle to make 1000 in the September. It is now January a euro a day to feed until March17th (50 euro) 50 cent a day for grass 180 days (90 euro) Veterinary 10 euro, 2kgsd of ration for 6 weeks 20 euro, transport 20 euro, mart fees 20 euro. Total 210 euro. I cannot see any profit on some of the cattle being bought at present.

tismesoitis

49801 wrote: »

Hi blue
I bought a limmy out of wilodge vantastic.

i know its high time that cattlemen made some money but is just really worry that the current price trends is similar to the property price bubble

Vantastic is a class animal saw 5 straws of his sold in england for 425 pound sterling each:eek::eek: would'nt mind havin a pot full of him:D

I think the ones to loose out will be the finishers. but hopefully not too bad i reckon prices are up for the long haul with maybe slight up and downs. Rising populations and increased beef consumption coupled with less land available to agriculture(biofuel production) should maintain prices internationally.....I hope:rolleyes:

Farmer Pudsey

locky76 wrote: »

Excellent brakdown of costs Pudsey,hard to see profit alright.
I hope it stays fine until i sell my 14 in June- 4 culls, 5 heifers and 5 bullocks :rolleyes:.

If there finished cattle the factory price should hold at around a base of 4 euro and I cannot see them falling in the marts until October or November.

aidanki

tismesoitis wrote: »

Rising populations and increased beef consumption coupled with less land available to agriculture(biofuel production) should maintain prices internationally.....I hope:rolleyes:

lot of people hoping that, i think biofuel will make or break agri produce, the EU and US will implement policy such that biofuel regulates land supply for agri use according as food price rises and fall

Muckit

I think there's alot less beef cattle in the country in the last few years. IMO it's a combination of lads starting to kill cattle at an earlier age and also part time lads getting out of or cutting down on cow numbers.

IMO prices will stay at current levels for a good while to come. I may live to eat my words though :rolleyes:

locky76

Excellent, they'll all be going to the factory then.
I'll get them out around paddy's day, keep fresh grass in front of them and finish them off with 6 weeks of 4kgs of meal per day, here's hoping...

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

If there finished cattle the factory price should hold at around a base of 4 euro and I cannot see them falling in the marts until October or November.

Farmer Pudsey

locky76 wrote: »

Excellent, they'll all be going to the factory then.
I'll get them out around paddy's day, keep fresh grass in front of them and finish them off with 6 weeks of 4kgs of meal per day, here's hoping...

I read an article where it shows that feeding cattle 1-2 kgs on grass will get a return of 4-1 even on the best of grass I know all the advice about meals in spring etc 2kgs over 12 weeks I know it is extra work but??????

49801

tismesoitis wrote: »

Vantastic is a class animal saw 5 straws of his sold in england for 425 pound sterling each:eek::eek: would'nt mind havin a pot full of him:D

first dabble with limmy for us... never spent as much as this on a stock bull in the past but i think he was well bought.
i'd looked at a good few and even for 3 star bulls the asking was 2.5k
i paid a little more than that but no where near the 4.5k being asked for another 5star bull.
will be very interesting to see the sales report from the upcoming society sale in roscrea.

back on topic i think those that house cattle next autmn for killing out of the shed will loose money but those killing cattle up till mid sept should do ok before the price's get pulled. (this is from my crystal ball;))

Tora Bora

Why is everybody talking about curent price of cattle being a bubble?
In reality it's not a bubble, as this is where the prices should be and need to be at a minimun, considering cost of inputs, and stupid regulation of the industry.

I prefer to think that we have come out of the "inverted bubble" of the last ten years, into a more normal market, where the primary producer, has some chance to make a bit of profit.

The bubble is dead, long live the bubble:cool:

49801

Tora Bora wrote: »

Why is everybody talking about curent price of cattle being a bubble?
In reality it's not a bubble, as this is where the prices should be and need to be at a minimun, considering cost of inputs, and stupid regulation of the industry.

I prefer to think that we have come out of the "inverted bubble" of the last ten years, into a more normal market, where the primary producer, has some chance to make a bit of profit.

The bubble is dead, long live the bubble:cool:

I would agree with you that this is where the factory prices should be!
unfortunately this is driving big live prices too.

I know I am a cynic and a pessimiste but I just cant see the prices staying up this high and fellows loosing a fair few pound.

pakalasa

The start of a worrying trend;
http://www.donedeal.ie/for-sale/beefcattle/2950813

Will NAMA cover feedlots?

bob charles

pakalasa wrote: »

The start of a worrying trend;
http://www.donedeal.ie/for-sale/beefcattle/2950813

Will NAMA cover feedlots?

They may not be in trouble but trying to raise finance elsewhere. I have being thinking about taking this road myself and try and attain some venture capital and then use such to leverage. Banks are a dead duck in my eyes and not willing to lend the amount of money needed to keep a large cattle enterprise financed. Im sure such is taking place in the industry as we speak (just look at the huge dairies being set up in parts of the country). To run a fattening enterprise of any size nowadays requires a least half a million capital just as a float. Frightening

pakalasa

Feedlots are,by their nature, high turnover, low margins with high risk. Nobody is going to lend you money unless you put up your own shirt, to some degree. Even a 10% drop in price, could see you in trouble.

bob charles

pakalasa wrote: »

Feedlots are,by their nature, high turnover, low margins with high risk. Nobody is going to lend you money unless you put up your own shirt, to some degree. Even a 10% drop in price, could see you in trouble.

Banks not interested even if there is a large amount security available. I would think that their are many people with a large amount of money looking to invest at both a fixed rate and or profit share. Farming is sexy for some reason to be involved in at the moment so might as well take advantage of it. If you are looking to grow quick which many on here seem to be it one of the main options

49801

i thought many of the feed lots in the states operate on the basis that the owner/breeder retains ownership till slaughter and the lot charges a fixed cost per day.

lot is then only suceptable to market fluctuations in straights and not factory price

would such a model work here?

reilig

49801 wrote: »

I just can't get over the price of cattle lately!
great if you've cattle to sell but I must say someone is going to loose a $hit load of money.

a chap was telling me that he is looking for black and white bullocks and was prepared to bid 350 with the weight for them but he can't get near them in the marts. surely that sort of money is continental prices for black and whites!

we don't normally buy in animals but I've been looking around this year for breeding stock to try and up our numbers with some tillage ground coming back online to grass. i bid 1050/hd for 4 maiden heifers avg weight of 415kg with SI and LM breeding which i thought was great money for them and i lost out on a bid for the sum of 1225e. Now these where good stock all out of AI but seriously!
Our new bull arrived on fri and I will put him with 9 of our own maiden heifers next weekend. would like to add a few more bought-in's to the group but at this sort of money i'd prefer to keep the money in my pocket.

current factory prices seem to be driving things atm too. while prices are good atm I cant see them staying up this high for the remainder of the year.

Over an extended period, won't the whole thing balance out for a finisher.
Cattle prices are high now, so the cattle that the finisher bought 18 months ago that are currently being slaughtered are making big money? Can't he afford to invest big money into replacements for these finished cattle? Most finishers will calculate their profit by the amount got for the finished animal minus the cost of keeping the animal and the cost of replacing the animal. If the price that the finisher is to receive in the future decreases, then surely the price that he pays for replacement animals will be less too. The extra profit made in year 1 of high prices will cover his losses in the year of a big price drop.

The only people who this so called "price bubble" has a major impact are those who aren't buying to replace stock.

The majority of other people that are making noise about prices being too high are middle men who will still have the same profit as before but think that, because the primary producers, (mostly suckler farmers) have for 1 year, made a profit on their animals, they should be entitled to a bigger share of the pie.

€350 with the weight for black and white bullocks?? That guy wants to have his cake and eat it too. How does he expect the first owner of them to have any profit for keeping them that long.

On a further note. Has anyone noticed how easily that irish government has managed to pass a load of budget cuts in Agriculture in the last budget? No? Not many have. But we're going to receive less money in our REPS Cheques, Less money in our DA Cheques, we will have to pay higher tax. Those on Farm assist will receive less money. We will have to pay water charges. We will have to pay the household charge and the septic tank charge. We will also have higher motor tax for all vehicles and higher fuel charges.

4 years ago, cuts that weren't half of this level brought Dublin to a standstill with tractor blockades and farmer marches. The fact that most farmers actually made a profit in 2011 means that they're willing to take the impact of these cuts or that they simply haven't noticed them in their pocket.

I just hope that farmers realise what they have taken on by accepting the cuts. I hope that when the time comes that factories try to artifically burst the price bubble (you can be sure that they will) that farmers will hold strong and demand that they be paid properly. Because if beef prices were to go back to what they were 2 years ago, combined with the above cuts in the agricultural budget and increases in tax and farm inputs, there will be a lot of people on the breadline!!!

bob charles

49801 wrote: »

i thought many of the feed lots in the states operate on the basis that the owner/breeder retains ownership till slaughter and the lot charges a fixed cost per day.

lot is then only suceptable to market fluctuations in straights and not factory price

would such a model work here?

No, factories have damn all interested in carrying any of the liability

gbee

49801 wrote: »

while prices are good atm I cant see them staying up this high for the remainder of the year.

No, two weeks ago Farm Talk on some radio station was saying how there was a shortage of cattle and sellers should hold out for a good price, factories were short some 3,000 head, but the gap would be short lived as orders would be filled abroad.

We are in a weather bubble which has just burst and the fear is disease in the coming months from too mild a winter.

So it's at least a two pronged bubble with potential losses from both causes.

JohnBoy

reilig wrote: »

On a further note. Has anyone noticed how easily that irish government has managed to pass a load of budget cuts in Agriculture in the last budget? No? Not many have. But we're going to receive less money in our REPS Cheques, Less money in our DA Cheques, we will have to pay higher tax. Those on Farm assist will receive less money. We will have to pay water charges. We will have to pay the household charge and the septic tank charge. We will also have higher motor tax for all vehicles and higher fuel charges.

Have to disagree there. You've got three ag support schemes that were cut, but everyone will have to pay higher taxes, water charges, motor taxes, fuel bills and the household charge. Every rural house will have to pay the septic tank charge, so maybe it's a 50/50 one.


In a time when the country is financially crippled, and farming is doing well (even if it's only a blip) it would do farmers little good to go kicking up too much of a stink over reductions in support payments.

49801

bob charles wrote: »

No, factories have damn all interested in carrying any of the liability

I was more thinking that fed lots would be completely seperate enities to slaugther houses.

so farmer would move his stock to a feed lot for finishing and pay the per day charge of keeping the stock. when he wants to cash in the feed lot moves the animals to slaughter house. farmer gets paid for carcus as usual

reilig

JohnBoy wrote: »

Have to disagree there. You've got three ag support schemes that were cut, but everyone will have to pay higher taxes, water charges, motor taxes, fuel bills and the household charge. Every rural house will have to pay the septic tank charge, so maybe it's a 50/50 one.


In a time when the country is financially crippled, and farming is doing well (even if it's only a blip) it would do farmers little good to go kicking up too much of a stink over reductions in support payments.

So do you think they will reverse the cuts to these 3 ag support schemes if the bottom falls out of the cattle market and we go back to 2009 prices?
How much was your farm income up in 2011? Could you sustain a reduction by that % again and also bear the reduction in the support schemes?

Urban dwellers won't have to pay the septic tank charges!

Every other group in society is protesting about far less cuts than the agricultural sector had. Why shouldn't the farmers kick up a stink? We didn't cause the recession. In fact, we lived in an agricultural recession for 20 years when banks didn't even want our custom while they pumped billion after billion into the construction sector. In hundreds of years time when all the ghost estates are demolished and paid for by our grandchildren, land will still be there and people will still need food. The banks or the government never look at it that way though. They were only ever interested in the quick buck!

stanflt

sold a 22month old fr heifer that didnt go in calf in carnaross weighing 680kg for 1260:eek::eek::eek:

Joe the Plumber

Current prices are realistic and more in tune with cost of production.

Back in the mid seventies if you went to the mart, when you came out you could find your trailer full of calves. They were thrown out on the side of the road.

Then by 1979 a strong 3 year old bullock was making 800 old pounds. The equivalent of 4000 euro now I'd say.

So we have a way to go before this upward curve peaks. IMO

keep going

my theory is that buying calves now is the highest risk but it is also the lowest capital so farmers will buy them because buying cattle now needs a lot of money which is very hard to get but my suspicion is that the factories wont be able to resist making a killing in 2 years time when the extra numbers that are not being exported now come on stream

Grecco

Larry & Co. will be the real winners here not the farmers

pakalasa

I remember us selling a bunch of 2 1/2 year old friesian bullock for 760 Irish pounds back around 1988. With inflation, that equates to about 1,750 Euro today.
I used this Irish inflation calculator;
http://www.anthonykelly.com/inflation.html

jay gatsby

pakalasa wrote: »

I remember us selling a bunch of 2 1/2 year old friesian bullock for 760 Irish pounds back around 1988. With inflation, that equates to about 1,750 Euro today.
I used this Irish inflation calculator;
http://www.anthonykelly.com/inflation.html

I completely agree that the price for cattle is still not equivalent to what was achieved in the 70's in particular. However the % of a household's budget which is spent on food has tumbeled for years now. This would alter the look of these figures quite a bit I think

whelan1

ye local farmer was telling me he sold a load of cattle in the factory in the 70's and bought a brand new car on the way home with the cheque

49801

sent 4 hiefers to the factory last fri. about 24mth old that were not finished when the majority went in Dec
havn't seen the docet yet for the fat classes and deductions but have the following prices over the phone

Carcus/Grade/price/total
246/O/3.80/934.8
278/R/4.16/1156.48
280/R/4.16/1164.8
310/R/4.16/1289.6

what i find astounding is that these are the sort of prices and more that are being paid in the marts

Tipp Man

Surely if you have the majority of your cattle on hands all year round you can't really loose. Buy back the replacements as you sell. The risk is when you are out of stock for long periods - such as we are in our summer grazing system

this is exactly what i have been saying on other threads - your profit is not on the buying and selling of the same animal. It is the difference between selling an animal and buying his replacement. I think that is vitally important to remember.

to be honest people shouldn't really care what price cattle are in the mart as long as the price in the factory allows people along the line to make a decent margin, and it is alot easier to make money for everybody along the line when the factory price is strong. I think the breaking of the €4 a kilo was massive, as it obviously allows the factory sellers to give significantly more in the mart, which they are doing. Which means the real winners are the calf to year and half guys.

Regarding the trends in beef - I think demand will continue to be strong in the short to medium term. I think that by 2025-2030 beef will be a premium product, maybe not in Ireland but on a worldwide level. It will be seen as a treat for most

pakalasa

Tipp Man wrote: »

... Buy back the replacements as you sell. The risk is when you are out of stock for long periods - such as we are in our summer grazing system....

This is it in a nutshell. If prices fall in the factories, so too will the store prices. As an old farmer down our way always said - " The day you buy, is the day you sell", but I could never figure it that meant the quality you buy... rather than insulating against price changes.

bob charles

49801 wrote: »

sent 4 hiefers to the factory last fri. about 24mth old that were not finished when the majority went in Dec
havn't seen the docet yet for the fat classes and deductions but have the following prices over the phone

Carcus/Grade/price/total
246/O/3.80/934.8
278/R/4.16/1156.48
280/R/4.16/1164.8
310/R/4.16/1289.6

what i find astounding is that these are the sort of prices and more that are being paid in the marts

I would think in total you would have achieve if not the same if not more sold live. the first heifer would have made more definatly sold live, and you have slaughter deductions to take from those prices yet. Sell live to stay alive

Atilathehun

At least the Yanks, will continue to need beef:D

Cattle Herd Drop to 1958 Low Boosting Cost for McDonald’s, Tyson


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-27/cattle-herd-drop-to-1958-low-boosting-cost-for-mcdonald-s-tyson.html

The cattle herd in the U.S. may be the smallest since 1958, when McDonald’s Corp. had just 79 hamburger restaurants, signaling tighter beef supplies and higher costs for companies including Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)
Ranchers held 91.24 million head of cattle as of Jan. 1, down 1.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would be the smallest since Dwight Eisenhower was president. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release its herd report at 3 p.m. in Washington.
A record drought in Texas last year and rising feed costs prompted ranchers to cull herds, even as beef exports surged from the U.S., the world’s largest producer. Cattle futures are up 15 percent since the end of June, reaching a record seven times this month, and the Livestock Marketing Information Center says retail-beef prices that reached an all-time high on an annual basis in 2011 will keep rising through next year.
“The drought certainly was the game changer of 2011,” Jim Robb, the director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center, a Denver-based researcher, said in a telephone interview. “Feedstuffs were record-high costs. The herd on a national basis declined.”
Cattle futures rallied to $1.29675 a pound on Jan. 25 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the highest for a most-active contract since the commodity began trading on the CME in 1964. Prices may reach $1.399, said David Kruse, the president CommStock Investments Inc., a commodity broker in Royal, Iowa.
Beef Rally

Wholesale beef rose 6.4 percent in the past year and reached $1.9707 a pound on Nov. 23, the highest since at least 2004, according to the USDA. Ground beef averaged $2.921 last month, the highest since at least 1984, and boneless round steak jumped to $4.723 in December, the highest since at least 1980, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
McDonald’s (MCD), the world’s biggest restaurant chain by revenue with more than 33,000 outlets worldwide, is forecasting higher beef costs. The Oak Brook, Illinois-based company is the largest user of beef among U.S. restaurants, according to CattleFax, an industry researcher in Centennial, Colorado.
McDonald’s will see “another midteens increase” in beef costs this year, Chief Financial Officer Peter J. Bensen said on an earnings conference call with analysts on Jan. 24.
Texas, the biggest cattle-producing state, had its driest year on record in 2011, according to the National Weather Service. The drought destroyed pastures, forcing ranchers to unload animals rather than incur costs for grain such as corn, which reached an all-time high price last year.
Fewer Cattle

The herd of beef cows held for breeding probably shrank to 30.05 million head as of Jan. 1, the lowest since 1962, according to the average of 10 estimates in the Bloomberg survey. The calf crop should be smaller than last year, marking the 17th consecutive year of declines, said Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri at Columbia.
“Fewer calves being born means ultimately fewer cattle will be slaughtered,” Plain, who has studied the industry for three decades, said in a telephone interview. “That means the tight beef supply is going to get tighter as we go through 2012 and 2013 and 2014.”
Once the herd starts to expand, it will take more than two years before beef supplies increase, Plain said. Calves have nine-month gestation periods and take about 20 months to reach slaughter weight, he said.
Prefer to Sell

Some herds grew in states unaffected by drought and in areas where there was less pressure to switch to growing crops, Robb of the Livestock Marketing Information Center said. Ranchers would prefer to sell heifers for slaughter at current high prices than hold them for breeding, said Lane Broadbent, a KIS Futures Inc. vice president in Oklahoma City.
Ranchers earned an estimated $93.50 per cow last year, compared with $46.50 in 2010, Robb said. Even as rising profit provided an incentive to expand, that was overwhelmed by the impact of the drought, high grain prices and the potential for better profits in crop production, he said.
Tyson Foods, the biggest U.S. meat processor, projects a “gradual reduction” of 1 percent to 2 percent in supplies of cattle available for slaughter during the fiscal year that began Oct. 2, according to a Nov. 21 statement. Supplies will be “adequate” in regions where the Springdale, Arkansas-based company operates beef plants, it said. Most of those are in the Midwest, according to Gary Mickelson, a company spokesman.
Tyson Foods forecast profitability in its beef unit in the first fiscal quarter, though at a “lower level” than in the preceding quarter, James Lochner, the chief operating officer, said on a conference call with analysts on Nov. 21.
‘In the Red’

“Cattle costs continue to go up, but so do beef prices,” said Akshay Jagdale, a New York-based analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets who has a “buy” rating on Tyson. Profit margins for meatpackers now “are actually in the red, but we expect that to improve as the year goes along,” he said. “For the full year, we expect them to still be profitable.”
Beef processors may have to adjust plant capacity as cattle supplies shrink, Jagdale said in a telephone interview. Higher beef prices will boost revenue enough to make up for the rise in costs from shrinking supplies, he said.
The USDA forecast total beef output at 25.075 billion pounds (11.4 million metric tons) this year, down 4.6 percent from an estimated 26.297 billion in 2011.
Export Surge

As supply tightens, exports are surging. The U.S. may ship a record 974,000 metric tons (2.15 billion pounds) of beef, excluding variety meats, in 2012 valued at $5.13 billion, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said. That’s up 6.5 percent from an estimated 914,500 tons in 2011, the group said.
Consumers may pay as much as 5 percent more for beef this year, the biggest increase among all the food groups except for seafood, the USDA said in a Jan. 25 report. That follows an estimated 10.2 percent rise in the cost of the meat last year, and is projected to be higher than the 3.5 percent jump in overall food costs in 2012, the government said.
Cattle futures for April delivery closed yesterday at $1.2805 a pound on the CME, up 5.4 percent this month, heading for the biggest January gain since 2002.
“Inventory reports are kind of like the state of the union for the cattle,” said Broadbent, who has been a commodity broker for more than two decades. “Our cow-herd numbers and our cattle numbers are going to stay tight for the next year and half or two years.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Campbell in Chicago at ecampbell14@bloomberg.net

irishh_bob

Joe the Plumber wrote: »

Current prices are realistic and more in tune with cost of production.

Back in the mid seventies if you went to the mart, when you came out you could find your trailer full of calves. They were thrown out on the side of the road.

Then by 1979 a strong 3 year old bullock was making 800 old pounds. The equivalent of 4000 euro now I'd say.

So we have a way to go before this upward curve peaks. IMO

current prices might correctly reflect the cost of producion but they are by no means typical of any long term market trend

this isnt the public sector where the old excuse of ireland being expensive can be trotted out as a way of justifying a 30% premium in wages to guards , teachers and nurses over thier counterparts in the uk

beef is mad dear now due to demand , not because producers deserve a day in the sun , long may the sun shine though

Tipp Man

irishh_bob wrote: »

current prices might correctly reflect the cost of producion but they are by no means typical of any long term market trend

this isnt the public sector where the old excuse of ireland being expensive can be trotted out as a way of justifying a 30% premium in wages to guards , teachers and nurses over thier counterparts in the uk

beef is mad dear now due to demand , not because producers deserve a day in the sun , long may the sun shine though

The public sector comparison is not valid at all in this case.

49801

bob charles wrote: »

I would think in total you would have achieve if not the same if not more sold live. the first heifer would have made more definatly sold live, and you have slaughter deductions to take from those prices yet. Sell live to stay alive

should of mentioned the O grader looked like a greyhound. she got a bad scour as a calf and was never right. i'd wanted to have her put down as a yearling so just as well we didn't now:o. very pleasently surprised to get any return for her

current high live prices are well beyound what is achievable when it comes to slaughter is my point really.
at the end of the day this is where all beef cattle should end up.
how is it fellows can justify paying 1-200e more today than what they can possibly get for them at the other end of the year not to mention the cost of keeping them

not much point in getting big money as a seller if you put your customer out of business as a result. that is just not good business

all that said... if I was selling in the morning i'd be asking the buyer would he be willing to pay a premium in years the cattle price is down to cover the cost of production with a margin.

bob charles

49801 wrote: »

should of mentioned the O grader looked like a greyhound. she got a bad scour as a calf and was never right. i'd wanted to have her put down as a yearling so just as well we didn't now:o. very pleasently surprised to get any return for her

current high live prices are well beyound what is achievable when it comes to slaughter is my point really.
at the end of the day this is where all beef cattle should end up.
how is it fellows can justify paying 1-200e more today than what they can possibly get for them at the other end of the year not to mention the cost of keeping them

not much point in getting big money as a seller if you put your customer out of business as a result. that is just not good business

all that said... if I was selling in the morning i'd be asking the buyer would he be willing to pay a premium in years the cattle price is down to cover the cost of production with a margin.

sounds like you are looking for a socialist beef finisher, that my friend will be some find :D

JohnBoy

49801 wrote: »

how is it fellows can justify paying 1-200e more today than what they can possibly get for them at the other end of the year not to mention the cost of keeping them

In a rising market they might/should make money.

if it's still rising when their time comes to sell of course!

Tipp Man

49801 wrote: »

should of mentioned the O grader looked like a greyhound. she got a bad scour as a calf and was never right. i'd wanted to have her put down as a yearling so just as well we didn't now:o. very pleasently surprised to get any return for her

current high live prices are well beyound what is achievable when it comes to slaughter is my point really.
at the end of the day this is where all beef cattle should end up.
how is it fellows can justify paying 1-200e more today than what they can possibly get for them at the other end of the year not to mention the cost of keeping them

not much point in getting big money as a seller if you put your customer out of business as a result. that is just not good business

all that said... if I was selling in the morning i'd be asking the buyer would he be willing to pay a premium in years the cattle price is down to cover the cost of production with a margin.

Don't forget that your animals had light carcases and they still cleared the 1,100 mark.

Most bullocks and bulls will have carcasses 100kg heavier than your heifers - or more

so using your numbers a 375kg carcase @ 4.16 will give you about 1550 - say 1,000 to replace and you still have 250 to cover costs and 300 profit.

Thats why your typical store bullock is making a thousand quid