cattle price bubble... who's going to get caught?

pakalasa

I had a look through old receipts here. Found one for early Oct 1992. Galtee Meats in Charleville.

Grade
O - 2.050 £ /Kg = 2.60 €/kg = 4.13 €/kg inflation adjusted
R - 2.205 £ / Kg = 2.80 €/kg = 4.45 €/kg inflation adjusted

Used this again to calculate inflation equivalent in todays money.
http://www.anthonykelly.com/inflation.html

Farmer Pudsey

49801 wrote: »

sent 4 hiefers to the factory last fri. about 24mth old that were not finished when the majority went in Dec
havn't seen the docet yet for the fat classes and deductions but have the following prices over the phone

Carcus/Grade/price/total
246/O/3.80/934.8
278/R/4.16/1156.48
280/R/4.16/1164.8
310/R/4.16/1289.6

what i find astounding is that these are the sort of prices and more that are being paid in the marts

Looking at prices paid the ofirst heifer is 36 cent behind the rest it looks like she graded O- or below fat grade2+ and the rest graded R- or R= At a guess she was around 500 kgs the others 530, 530 and 590 the first heifer might have made more in the mart but the others would harly have as they were finished and dealers never give more than factory price and usually less than it for cattle

Farmer Pudsey

Tipp Man wrote: »

Don't forget that your animals had light carcases and they still cleared the 1,100 mark.

Most bullocks and bulls will have carcasses 100kg heavier than your heifers - or more

so using your numbers a 375kg carcase @ 4.16 will give you about 1550 - say 1,000 to replace and you still have 250 to cover costs and 300 profit.

Thats why your typical store bullock is making a thousand quid

I cannot see the price in September being above a bese of 4 euro a kilo most Friesan AA and WH bullocks will not average most freisans will be over age and will be 18-30cent below base price say averageing 355 kgsX 3.75= 1331euro WH and AA if you are in there schemes WH 355X4=1420euro AA 320X4.05 =1296euro CH and LM bullocks will probally average 400kgs at and average 1600-1650 euro at present are at around this price . Unless we see a verry strong prices in the back end of the year there will be weeping and nashing of teeth I think that above is the best we can hope for and it could be 50 cent back from it

PANADOL

Tora Bora wrote: »

Why is everybody talking about curent price of cattle being a bubble?
In reality it's not a bubble, as this is where the prices should be and need to be at a minimun, considering cost of inputs, and stupid regulation of the industry.

I prefer to think that we have come out of the "inverted bubble" of the last ten years, into a more normal market, where the primary producer, has some chance to make a bit of profit.

The bubble is dead, long live the bubble:cool:

i couldnt agree more i remember suck calfs were 300 pounds in 1985 i tle hink a mars bar was about 25p a pint was about 130? so my point is there is no bubble cattle prices should be about 800 with their weight , given how the cost of everything else has trippled in price

Joe the Plumber

I think we are all forgetting the fact that the min stocking rate went up in the budget and a lot of farmers believe that we could be in some sort of reference years a the present so they are keeping their numbers up just in case plus the fact that there is a demand for beef, dairy and tillage produce worldwide.

Did you know that 16 percent of the worlds baby food is produced in Ireland. Because of our milk quality and climate.

A lot of factors in play ATM

Three good years in it at least IMO

On a different note is it true that parthanise cattle can kill out at up to 65 percent?

Farmer Pudsey

[QUOTE=

On a different note is it true that parthanise cattle can kill out at up to 65 percent?[/QUOTE]

I say they will if they were fed like in Italy

Pharaoh1

PANADOL wrote: »

i couldnt agree more i remember suck calfs were 300 pounds in 1985 i tle hink a mars bar was about 25p a pint was about 130? so my point is there is no bubble cattle prices should be about 800 with their weight , given how the cost of everything else has trippled in price

True enough but we need to factor in a couple of things.
There was no SFP/REPS etc.. cushion in the eighties.
Also there have been major advances in methods and technology leading to better breeding, feed conversion, stocking rate and the like.

blue5000

Pharaoh1 wrote: »

True enough but we need to factor in a couple of things.
There was no SFP/REPS etc.. cushion in the eighties.
Also there have been major advances in methods and technology leading to better breeding, feed conversion, stocking rate and the like.[/QUOTE]

Like what exactly?
Artificial hormones were legally still there in 1984, In USA with the help of hormones they can get steers to kill out at 65%

Breeding on the dairy side of things I think has got worse.

There are a lot of beef farms now stocked lighter than they were in the mid 80's.

Tipp Man

blue5000 wrote: »

Pharaoh1 wrote: »

True enough but we need to factor in a couple of things.
There was no SFP/REPS etc.. cushion in the eighties.
Also there have been major advances in methods and technology leading to better breeding, feed conversion, stocking rate and the like.[/QUOTE]

Like what exactly?
Artificial hormones were legally still there in 1984, In USA with the help of hormones they can get steers to kill out at 65%

Breeding on the dairy side of things I think has got worse.

There are a lot of beef farms now stocked lighter than they were in the mid 80's.

And probably less fertiliser spread and less grass grown

Pharaoh1

blue5000 wrote: »

Pharaoh1 wrote: »

Also there have been major advances in methods and technology leading to better breeding, feed conversion, stocking rate and the like.[/QUOTE]

Like what exactly?

Like the expansion of Bull beef, the use of diet feeders, the advances in mechanisation which mean that a part time farmer can manage 100 cattle and still work full-time.
Advances in Soil testing, grass measurement and budgeting, discussion groups, paddock grazing, reseeding techniques, more efficient use of slurry and granulated fertiliser, silage testing more indoor accomadation avoiding poaching, more productive grass varieties, ICBF data and loads more.

I'm not arguing that prices should go back to where they were two years ago - in fact they need to be higher given the ongoing increase in input costs.

But if a beef farmer has SFP of say 30K and is producing double the KGS per acre from his farm compared to what his father did in the 70s or 80s then this has to be considered when making comparisons with that time
and also the price at which he is prepared to continue to produce beef.

blue5000

Ya ok, points taken but I still don't think there has been a huge leap in technology since the 1980's. The good farmers were doing most of that stuff apart from icbf and diet feeding isn't all it's cracked up to be either. The first year I did bull beef was 1990.

I reckon beef farmers got the sh1te kicked out of them with bse, and to a lesser extent f and m, not the actual diseases but the way they were handled by media and politicians.

Maybe prices were artificially high in the 1970's but in real terms a bullock should be making 2,500 e at slaughter. I haven't heard of any farmers buying a new car with the cheque from the meat factory this year.

Wigster

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I cannot see the price in September being above a bese of 4 euro a kilo most Friesan AA and WH bullocks will not average most freisans will be over age and will be 18-30cent below base price say averageing 355 kgsX 3.75= 1331euro WH and AA if you are in there schemes WH 355X4=1420euro AA 320X4.05 =1296euro CH and LM bullocks will probally average 400kgs at and average 1600-1650 euro at present are at around this price . Unless we see a verry strong prices in the back end of the year there will be weeping and nashing of teeth I think that above is the best we can hope for and it could be 50 cent back from it

I usually buy 400KG Herefords/Angus etc over the last few years around autumn and finish the following year. I was paying historically 200 to 250 with their weight. I saw an increase last year of about 50/60 head in the factory compared to previous years. Then out with my cheque again for replacements! But this time 450 to 550 with their weight, I cannot justify spending this as the margin would be negligible not to mind if factory prices dropped. I mean over €400 for a Hereford bull calf a week old a few weeks ago paid at a mart.

Bleating Lamb

Was in Dowra mart on Sat.....heres a few daft prices for ye...couple of half starved Lim bucket feds about a month of age 350 euro plus!!!....kind of calves that wont start thriving for a month even with TLC
Reasonable quality ped reg Char heifir weanling about 280kg....1500!!!.....Now some people like to buy trouble.

Joe the Plumber

Good prices, long may it last.

I heard that calves are being imported from eastern Europe !

I thought we were exporting drop calves out there two years ago, and thats why cattle are so scarce now.

Tora Bora

Calf numbers born in January up by 16,000 comapred to last year. If that trend keeps up, there will be a supply exceeding demand next fall. Some lads, will feel the heat building up in the exhaust chamber:D

Calf numbers rise by 16,000


http://www.independent.ie/farming/news-features/calf-numbers-rise-by-16000-3003915.html


Tuesday January 31 2012

January dairy and beef calf registrations jumped by more than 16,000 (23pc) compared to last year's figures.
While ICBF personnel were quick to play down the significance of the figures, the increase reflects the improved returns that beef and dairy farmers are currently enjoying.
"We've already seen a big increase in the number of replacements hitting the ground in dairy farms and it's likely that these figures are showing a similar trend in the beef sector," said ICBF's Dr Andrew Crombie.
But the geneticist cautioned that these were preliminary figures for 2012 and that the overall numbers could be less dramatic.

Sunset V

Joe the Plumber wrote: »

Good prices, long may it last.

I heard that calves are being imported from eastern Europe !

I thought we were exporting drop calves out there two years ago, and thats why cattle are so scarce now.

That's worrying alright for many different reasons. The BVD programme as well as the amount of calves we'll have is something to be worried about if we're importing like crazy.

Slight off topic but we're the only blue tongue free country in europe so it's bad news if we're importing from countries like Romania that is riddled with it.

Pharaoh1

While there's no denying the lift in cattle prices in the last year or so there is a tendency for farmers to repeat stories to one another about exceptionally high priced lots. I get this all the time from the neighbours and I was beginning to think I wouldn't be able to buy anything this year.

But I took delivery of a few weanlings yesterday and I didn't think the price was crazy. I didn't get the invoice for all of them yet but they are nice framey emptyish suckler bred CH bulls born last May/June/July averaging 260kgs and around 750 euro. I have the details for one who was 240kgs and 700 euro.
OK they are nearly 3 euro/kg and are 100 euro dearer than last year and 200 dearer than 2010 but they are gone out to good grass and should do very well. With the start they are getting I should be able to get them to 500kg by November (240 days at grass)
There were a few nice dairy cross bull calves in the lorry (blues and CH types) for a neighbour who is looking to keep his numbers up at lowest cost but at 560 euro they still need a lot of looking after and at the end of the the day they are still dairy bred.

Grecco

Glad to hear that Pharaoh.
I was at ennis mart on tue, calf prices still mad
Weanlens are dear but I think prices have just moved.
The euro has lost a lot of ground to Sterling over the last year and as the UK is our biggest market then prices are going to rise because of this.
Anyway I dont think I`ll become a millionaire out of farming boom or no boom

JohnBoy

Sunset V wrote: »

That's worrying alright for many different reasons. The BVD programme as well as the amount of calves we'll have is something to be worried about if we're importing like crazy.

Slight off topic but we're the only blue tongue free country in europe so it's bad news if we're importing from countries like Romania that is riddled with it.

I agree.

I think it's madness, and now with this shallembergy thing in the mix too in countries the trucks are probably passing through it's just more risks we dont need.

bbam

Nice prices.
The brother was out two weeks ago and picked up four heifers. Two CHX came in at about €2.40 a KG and two CH heifers at about €2.70 a KG. About 300kg each.
We don't get the same grazing season here but they stand a good chance of making a profit by the autumn. Will be looking out for some more I'm a few weeks.

Pharaoh1 wrote: »

While there's no denying the lift in cattle prices in the last year or so there is a tendency for farmers to repeat stories to one another about exceptionally high priced lots. I get this all the time from the neighbours and I was beginning to think I wouldn't be able to buy anything this year.

But I took delivery of a few weanlings yesterday and I didn't think the price was crazy. I didn't get the invoice for all of them yet but they are nice framey emptyish suckler bred CH bulls born last May/June/July averaging 260kgs and around 750 euro. I have the details for one who was 240kgs and 700 euro.
OK they are nearly 3 euro/kg and are 100 euro dearer than last year and 200 dearer than 2010 but they are gone out to good grass and should do very well. With the start they are getting I should be able to get them to 500kg by November (240 days at grass)
There were a few nice dairy cross bull calves in the lorry (blues and CH types) for a neighbour who is looking to keep his numbers up at lowest cost but at 560 euro they still need a lot of looking after and at the end of the the day they are still dairy bred.

Pharaoh1

bbam wrote: »

Nice prices.
The brother was out two weeks ago and picked up four heifers. Two CHX came in at about €2.40 a KG and two CH heifers at about €2.70 a KG. About 300kg each.
We don't get the same grazing season here but they stand a good chance of making a profit by the autumn. Will be looking out for some more I'm a few weeks.

They sound like value all right.
Just to say that I'm in the north midlands and a few years ago I wouldn't have cattle out unil April. Reseeding, soil fertility and paddock grazing and rotational closing have helped to extend my grazing season.
The mild winter has helped of course.

Grecco

I don't think were in a bubble, compared to other commodities (yes cattle are commodities ) the rise isn't that huge. Like have cattle prices doubled in the last 3 years? I don't think so but the prices of many other items have... Diesel feed plastic fertilizers copper medicines etc etc all have had significant rises some by 200%+
So don't get too excited yet, when all the bills are topped up will there be a huge profit for anyone at the end of the year
All that is happening is your money is devaluing so I`d rather have stock at the moment at least the day I sell I can replace on the same day IYKWIM

reilig

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe the Plumber
Good prices, long may it last.

I heard that calves are being imported from eastern Europe !

I thought we were exporting drop calves out there two years ago, and thats why cattle are so scarce now.

Sunset V wrote: »

That's worrying alright for many different reasons. The BVD programme as well as the amount of calves we'll have is something to be worried about if we're importing like crazy.

Slight off topic but we're the only blue tongue free country in europe so it's bad news if we're importing from countries like Romania that is riddled with it.

Lads, I think that this is scaremongering.

Are there provisions for importing commercial animals from Mainland EU?
I don't think there are.

Its very difficult to import a pedigree animal from france - they make you jump through a lot of hoops with veterinary regulations and paperwork. I can't imagine that it would be possible to import cattle on a commercial scale from countries in eastern Europe?????

irishh_bob

Grecco wrote: »

I don't think were in a bubble, compared to other commodities (yes cattle are commodities ) the rise isn't that huge. Like have cattle prices doubled in the last 3 years? I don't think so but the prices of many other items have... Diesel feed plastic fertilizers copper medicines etc etc all have had significant rises some by 200%+
So don't get too excited yet, when all the bills are topped up will there be a huge profit for anyone at the end of the year
All that is happening is your money is devaluing so I`d rather have stock at the moment at least the day I sell I can replace on the same day IYKWIM

plastic and diesel rise in tandem but that doesnt nescesserily mean beef will rise accordingly so as to make those items affordable , as i said earlier , beef is dear right now due to global demand , not because the meat industry feels like giving farmers a lucky break , got nothing to do with fairness

JohnBoy

http://www.donedeal.ie/for-sale/beefcattle/2871411

dunno how much scaremongering it is.

reilig

JohnBoy wrote: »

http://www.donedeal.ie/for-sale/beefcattle/2871411

dunno how much scaremongering it is.

That ad was discussed here before. They are from the uk and whoever buys them, feeds them and finishes them must bring them back to the uk for slaughter.

But people suggesting that we are importing cattle from Eastern Europe where they have very low veterinary standards is just silly. Has anyone got any proof of this or is it just hearsay? (perhaps just a chinese whisper that has reached the 50th person?????)

moy83

reilig wrote: »

That ad was discussed here before. They are from the uk and whoever buys them, feeds them and finishes them must bring them back to the uk for slaughter.

But people suggesting that we are importing cattle from Eastern Europe where they have very low veterinary standards is just silly. Has anyone got any proof of this or is it just hearsay? (perhaps just a chinese whisper that has reached the 50th person?????)

There was definitely an ad on donedeal awhile back for imported calves from romania , but i dont know of anyone that bought any .

charityboy

crowd in wicklow importing heifer calves from romania to use as suckler replacements ,dont know of anyone who bought these but they are definitely there because i know several fellows who went to look at them

reilig

Some googleing shows that wicklow catte co have imported them, but they are still in quarantine since last september :eek:

moy83

I know of a fella that went up to look at them aswell but on the day he went all they had was fr bull calves from england. I dont know were they sold out or had they come into the country at all

charityboy

reilig wrote: »

Some googleing shows that wicklow catte co have imported them, but they are still in quarantine since last september :eek:

they wont need much milk when they get out :D

1chippy

was talking to both companies. both import from Romania. this was a few months back. heifer calves with wicklow cattle co were around 520. ones from yer boy in tyrone were around 420 mark. Not worth it in my opinion by the time they are reared and bulled youd be out a pretty penny. then if they didnt go in calf it would be expensive dog food.
as for the question about is there anyone buying; theres a well known farmer up our direction who supposedly bought 70 for rearing.

Joe the Plumber

reilig wrote: »

Lads, I think that this is scaremongering.

Are there provisions for importing commercial animals from Mainland EU?
I don't think there are.

Its very difficult to import a pedigree animal from france - they make you jump through a lot of hoops with veterinary regulations and paperwork. I can't imagine that it would be possible to import cattle on a commercial scale from countries in eastern Europe?????

Going by the last number of posts, no scaremongering going on I'd say!

typical, within 12 months supply will exceed demand and we will be back to producing at or below cost yet again.

wait for it!!

Farmer Pudsey

Joe the Plumber wrote: »

Going by the last number of posts, no scaremongering going on I'd say!

typical, within 12 months supply will exceed demand and we will be back to producing at or below cost yet again.

wait for it!!

Joe I dont think that supply will exceed demand that soon however what will happen is that the weekly kill will exceed 30,000 cattle and the factories will begin to be killing at near capacity and will be able to fix the prices by useing a kind of a quota system amoung themselves. How come that the AIBP and Dawn group nearly kill the same amount of cattle each over any 12 monyh period
However it will most likely be at least a year and may even be longer depending on the number of young bulls killed in the next 12 months

reilig

Joe the Plumber wrote: »

Going by the last number of posts, no scaremongering going on I'd say!

typical, within 12 months supply will exceed demand and we will be back to producing at or below cost yet again.

wait for it!!

Will it really have that fast of an impact when irish meat factories cannot slaughter animals that are not born in this country? The only real benefit of importing animals from Mainland Europe will be for breeding heifers and breeding bulls.

Its a supply and demand situation. With an ever growing population, the demand for meat is growing slowly all the time. If meat production does not keep up with demand, then the prices will certainly be higher. What has happened in the last 5 years to see all meat prices rise?? I suspect its the increase in fuel prices. This has led to traditional meat producing countries change their farming systems from beef production to the production of bio fuels. Countries like brazil and argentina are now in a food vs fuel situation. The most profitable wins out and land is used to produce it. These countries were major suppliers of cheap beef to Europe and have found that they can make more money by producing fuel off their land and selling it to teh Americans.

Weather events such as the 5 year drought in the USA contribute to beef shortages also.

We also have less competition from the once threatening New Zealand and Australia. these have now sourced expansive markets closer to home with the huge population growth in China. There is such a demand for beef and offal products in china that new zealand and australia cannot keep up supply. Irish offal is even being exported to china - what once was a meat factory waste product can now be sold instead of paying to have it disposed.

At the end ofthe day, its supply and demand for beef. Ireland increasing its herd size will have some impact on prices. But if other countries continue to decrease their herd size in favour of bio fuel production, populations continue to grow, and climatic and global events continue to influence, then its anyone's guess how long the current prices will last and if they will rise or if they will fall.

Just remember that supply is not the only factor which will determine beef prices. Demand for beef is just as important!!

milkprofit

Just be cautious the last time a lot off cattle were imported
WE brought in a very high percent of FREE MARTINS
And a lot of Diseases from continent ,
these were tested in eu
Protect our health status

pakalasa

We're only importing calves to satisfy a short-term demand, for a year or two, but we could be bringing in disease that might last generations...Madness.

After years of listening to the IFA complaining about the factories and their low prices, with the current record high prices, I don't hear them praising them.

Joe the Plumber

I agree importing live cattle here, other than pedigree breeding stock is madness.

The old saying one bad apple comes to mind!!

I understand the supply demand situation Relig,only too well, but like the last boom we just experienced if there is too much of a gold rush now we will over do it like everything else and just increase Mr.Goodmans profits even more.

If cattle are being drip feed to the factories they will have to compete for the available stock.

They ultimately control the price regardless of what we think about free markets and the consumer.

JohnBoy

Personally I'd close the borders completely to anyone that doesnt have equally high control standards in place, pedigree or not.

and if that couldnt be done properly I'd seriously consider closing them completely.

Genetics can be imported in a flask.

Farmer Pudsey

The last time we imported cattle big time was about 10 years ago we got Johannes disease and BVD it was dairy farmers importing heifers this time we will get bluetongue and smhmellberg virus and god knows what else.The farmers buy these are putting the rest of us at risk remember the Foot and Mouth we had a close run then as well

bob charles

ping