Am I mad to buy in 2012

the groutch

Marcanthony = Brendan O'Connor?

Marcanthony

the groutch wrote: »

Marcanthony = Brendan O'Connor?

no. horses = courses.

i seen factory workers during the boom with 2 or 3 properties and a jeep outside their door. While student doctors where working all hours around them to pay rent and keep their banger of a car on the road.

Now its not rocket science, that this couldnt last or you would have protential doctors (professionals) working as labourers on a building sites and tiers of society would break down.:P

Spiritofthekop

Marcanthony wrote: »

no. horses = courses.

i seen factory workers during the boom with 2 or 3 properties and a jeep outside their door. While student doctors where working all hours around them to pay rent and keep their banger of a car on the road.

Now its not rocket science, that this couldnt last or you would have protential doctors (professionals) working as labourers on a building sites and tiers of society would break down.:P

Jaysus.

Not going to bother with this fella.

Marcanthony

Spiritofthekop wrote: »

Jaysus.

Not going to bother with this fella.

sorry if i hurt your feelings .

djimi

Im not sure that there is a right answer to this situation tbh. Im not expert on the subject but it seems to me that its all down to the individual and their situation. Personally I rent and wouldnt even dream of getting tied down into a mortgage, probably not for the next 5 years at least. I like the flexibility of knowing I can move for work if needs be, or if finances get tight I can downgrade where I live to adjust. However I do not have this fixation about owning my own home that some people seem to have; the way I see it I will probably buy at some point, but I am not going to put myself in financial difficulty just so I can say I am a homeowner. House prices seem to be far from their lowest point, so the way I see it if I dont have to buy now then why buy until I can get them at their cheapest price.

In the case of the OP they have already made up their mind that they are going to buy, so its just a case of ensuring what they buy is right for them. Most people feel that buying a €400k house on what we are assuming is €80k a year joing salary is pure madness, but the OP has obvious done the maths and is happy to live with the repayments and the potential risks involved with a high mortgage such as the one they are embarking on, so I suppose all we can do is wish them the best of luck and hope that it all works out for them.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

+1, see his capital gains tax query and you ll know why not to listen to this guy with property advice

doesn take a genius to search a forum. I have a couple of properties in neg equity. but the ones i sold. outbeats the negative equity. so why invest cash in a property that will eventually be paid for. when a plan was put into place prior.i know a lot about capitals gains tax.i have paid enough over the years.however if you play the ole fool. you might pick up additional info you didnt know already.

so whats your point.

dont buy now.wait till the monkey does , what he sees before you go and buy your home and protential investment.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

doesn take a genius to search a forum. I have a couple of properties in neg equity. but the ones i sold. outbeats the negative equity. so why invest cash in a property that will eventually be paid for. when a plan was put into place prior.i know a lot about capitals gains tax.i have paid enough over the years.however if you play the ole fool. you might pick up additional info you didnt know already.

so whats your point.

dont buy now.wait till the monkey does , what he sees before you go and buy your home and protential investment.

Its called fundamentals.

If the fundamentals were right, or will be right in ireland or europe in the next 3 years I would agree with you.

Its not about being a sheeple but its equally not about going against the market just for the sake of it.

I get that you (and others) are frustrated by the fact that talking down property has become popular. However unlike the boom there are sound underpinning reasons.

If you can show me, from an economic perspective, 5+ reasons why house prices wont fall further, then i ll give you 15 why they will.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

Its called fundamentals.

If the fundamentals were right, or will be right in ireland or europe in the next 3 years I would agree with you.

Its not about being a sheeple but its equally not about going against the market just for the sake of it.

I get that you (and others) are frustrated by the fact that talking down property has become popular. However unlike the boom there are sound underpinning reasons.

If you can show me, from an economic perspective, 5+ reasons why house prices wont fall further, then i ll give you 15 why they will.

in fairness you make some good points and its probably not a neccessity to buy right now.

My point is that I dont think properties will fall much or if anymore below 60/70% of the boom and buying a property in the right location at these prices.Is giving you the pick of the crop at a genuinely good price.

I could give you 15+ reasons for your 5+.

However people stating its not the right time because they will drop further. Can they comfirm by how much and why they think this.property will not be given away.

Zamboni

Marcanthony wrote: »

My point is that I dont think properties will fall much or if anymore below 60/70% of the boom and buying a property in the right location at these prices.Is giving you the pick of the crop at a genuinely good price.

Could you please explain the correlation between boom prices and what effect is has on present property prices and/or by how much/little they will fall?

Thanks

taldar

I would like to know how many years that mortgage is for. With the 1250 repayments id say its 30/35 years. 20 or 25 years max is what you should aim for nowadays in my opinion.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

in fairness you make some good points and its probably not a neccessity to buy right now.

Agreed

Marcanthony wrote: »

My point is that I dont think properties will fall much or if anymore below 60/70% of the boom and buying a property in the right location at these prices.Is giving you the pick of the crop at a genuinely good price.

Different area will fall by different amounts. Making sweeping statements of 60% from boom is misleading. All areas are not equal.

Why are you comparing to the boom anyway? What is your real reasons behind believing this 60/70% theory?

Its about where they will go price wise and why (again fundamentals that underpin a countries economy as well as some input from the global economy obviously)?

Marcanthony wrote: »

I could give you 15+ reasons for your 5+..

I look forward to them

Marcanthony wrote: »

However people stating its not the right time because they will drop further. Can they comfirm by how much and why they think this..

Yes you are right they can't say that they will fall by 14.37% next year. But equally the same people (on here and economists etc) have said that they would fall last year and the year before - and guess what - they were right. And they will be right again next year - you can come back and annoy me next year if i am wrong!

It doesnt take an economics degree to work out that in 95% of the country (the other 5% or less being specific desireable areas that may see a short term rebound) prices will fall further. By how much is anyones guess, but the favourite would be 10% plus. and as already mentioned (unless you are a cash buyer) when you factor in interest cost you can nearly double that difference.

Marcanthony wrote: »

property will not be given away.

Who has said they will?

djimi

Marcanthony wrote: »

However people stating its not the right time because they will drop further. Can they comfirm by how much and why they think this.property will not be given away.

Property will only sell for what people can afford to pay. Mortgages are harder to get and wages (or take home pay) is less than it was a few years back. People are going to be (or at least should be) a lot more wary about tying themselves into expensive financial commitments given that we are all extremely uncertain about what the next 5 years brings; employment is not a certainty, tax and other charges as well as general cost of living are on the up, any help homebuyers currently get is not a certainly, and all of these things are going to affect how people buy houses. Property will not be given away, but likewise it will not be bought for more than people can afford as is what happened in recent years. This will create a stalemate Im sure for some time, but in reality the price of houses and what people can afford to/are willing to pay is going to have to meet in the middle, and I dont feel we are near that point just yet.

Thats only my two cents; like I said above Im no expert.

Marcanthony

Zamboni wrote: »

Could you please explain the correlation between boom prices and what effect is has on present property prices and/or by how much/little they will fall?

Thanks

a property that at the height of the boom that was lets say 400k and is selling now for 160k. Is well with in peoples means that are working at present and the repayments including their intrest relief is still a lot lower than a rental price on the same properies in the current market.Allowing you take a 20 year morgage and keep up with your repayments you will be well into paying of your loan before you lose your tax relief and if properties still fall in price. you should still be outside the negative equity situation and its your home / against paying rent to finance anothers property repayments.

I do not know how much more they will fall. But my opinion is it could not be much more than 60/70% of the boom price .

Zamboni

Marcanthony wrote: »

a property that at the height of the boom that was lets say 400k and is selling now for 160k. Is well with in peoples means that are working at present and the repayments including their intrest relief is still a lot lower than a rental price on the same properies in the current market.Allowing you take a 20 year morgage and keep up with your repayments you will be well into paying of your loan before you lose your tax relief and if properties still fall in price. you should still be outside the negative equity situation and its your home / against paying rent to finance anothers property repayments.

I do not know how much more they will fall. But my opinion is it could not be much more than 60/70% of the boom price .

You are assuming that finance is readily available.
You are assuming full employment for the term of the mortgage.

Oh and you didn't actually answer the question.
Could you please explain the correlation between boom prices and what effect is has on present property prices and/or by how much/little they will fall?

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

But my opinion is it could not be much more than 60/70% of the boom price .

Are you talking about Cork? Because again sweeping statements are misleading. Not many houses of the 3/4 bed semi d type have fallen by 60-70% in north dublin where I am.

A lot havent even fallen 50% from what i ve seen so even going with your better figure of 60% that would suggest that they have at least 10% further to go (circa €40k + interest) based on your 400k.

Other areas have fallen by 60% but there is nothing to suggest that they cant fall by 80%.

But again I think my main point is all areas aren't equal so making broad statements like they wont go below 70% of boom price is crazy.

Lets ignore boom price, on what basis would you value a house?

Ray Palmer

You really need to do your research when buying it is really that simple. Aim to get the best value you can get. Buying a property you can improve is the best advice anybody can give you.

A house with the possibility to expand might sell at the same price as one without the potential.

If you see your dream house and it isn't likely that you could or would do the same with another house then buy it for the right price.

Yes theoretical saving are valid points but not always reflected accurtely as some areas are still not selling much property. There is a property or two that if they came on the market I might just really push for. A home is more than just about the price.

You could suddenly lose your job or get sick but that is life and you can't plan for everything

Marcanthony

kennyb3 in response to your post.

Different area will fall by different amounts. if Making sweeping statements of 60% from boom is misleading. how are the economists working out the prices they are falling by?

Why are you comparing to the boom anyway? What is your real reasons behind believing this 60/70% theory? Because thats how much I think they where over priced by.Looking back on graphs for sales for previous years before the boom.

A sale price will determain peoples buying. However so will the rental market.




Yes you are right they can't say that they will fall by 14.37% next year. But equally the same people (on here and economists etc) have said that they would fall last year and the year before - and guess what - they were right. And they will be right again next year - you can come back and annoy me next year if i am wrong!

They will drop more from what price.similar properties in the same area are still with big different sale prices. Ones that are realistically priced are selling at present.

It doesnt take an economics degree to work out that in 95% of the country (the other 5% or less being specific desireable areas that may see a short term rebound) prices will fall further. By how much is anyones guess, but the favourite would be 10% plus. and as already mentioned (unless you are a cash buyer) when you factor in interest cost you can nearly double that difference.

10% of what price? the price of the boom price after the fall price predicted each year from the boom price. please explain.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

Are you talking about Cork? Because again sweeping statements are misleading. Not many houses of the 3/4 bed semi d type have fallen by 60-70% in north dublin where I am.

A lot havent even fallen 50% from what i ve seen so even going with your better figure of 60% that would suggest that they have at least 10% further to go (circa €40k + interest) based on your 400k.

Other areas have fallen by 60% but there is nothing to suggest that they cant fall by 80%.

But again I think my main point is all areas aren't equal so making broad statements like they wont go below 70% of boom price is crazy.

Lets ignore boom price, on what basis would you value a house?

no i am a dub with property in dublin aswell as cork.
I did state already about location , criteria ect already. Obviosly theres no limits on how much a property in the back of beyonds or an aparment in a rural village. will fall by.Due to the fact they are a bad investment.

you probably havnt got to grips with your own area yet and still in denial. Thats what i mean by realistically priced and the ones that are, are selling.

I could post examples from daft or myhome. However I would not like to hamper someones protential sale from a gullible buyer. Search yourself youll find properties in good areas 60% cheaper than there boom price. While similar properties in same area are bout 30%.

so is the fall price expected from this year off the asking price of properties or from the original peak of the boom or some other magical maths theory.

would love to hear your theory kennyb3

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

kennyb3 in response to your post.

Because thats how much I think they where over priced by.Looking back on graphs for sales for previous years before the boom.

Enough said.

Marcanthony wrote: »

A sale price will determain peoples buying. However so will the rental market.

Incredibly insightful thanks.

Marcanthony wrote: »

They will drop more from what price.

More than theri current price!

Marcanthony wrote: »

similar properties in the same area are still with big different sale prices.

What?

Marcanthony wrote: »

Ones that are realistically priced are selling at present.

Agreed. And of course there will always be someone looking to buy for certain reasons but how does this level of activity compare to even the 1990's. and how does the level of mortgages compare (hint: we are back at 1974 levels).

And again asking price isnt equal to sales price.

Marcanthony wrote: »

10% of what price? the price of the boom price after the fall price predicted each year from the boom price. please explain.

10% plus of current asking price which again is even higher than actual selling price.

Eventually when we get a proper working database of achieved sales price the two will converge

Marcanthony wrote: »

I did state already about location , criteria ect already.Obviosly theres no limits on how much a property in the back of beyonds or an aparment in a rural village. will fall by.Due to the fact they are a bad investment.

Where did you state it?

Marcanthony wrote: »

you probably havnt got to grips with your own area yet and still in denial. Thats what i mean by realistically priced and the ones that are, are selling.

Denial about what exactly? You have me lost with all your general speak which lacks specifics.

Marcanthony wrote: »

I could post examples from daft or myhome. However I would not like to hamper someones protential sale from a gullible buyer. Search yourself youll find properties in good areas 60% cheaper than there boom price. While similar properties in same area are qbout 30%.

A few pages back you were telling the guy to buy. God im bemused!

Marcanthony

kennyb3 you state 10% of the current price. whats that and how is that worked out.

Is property prices at present not judged from their peak price ? please explain.
Because I have a theory, you dont .
if you read my posts why i said buy and the criteria i applied to why buy
and yes similar properties have differnt asking prices. do a bit of searching and youll find this out for yourself.
maybe this is because people are trying to sell to cover their outstanding mortgage amount and because they are not realistically priced, they will not sell.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

kennyb3 you state 10% of the current price. whats that and how is that worked out.

Is property prices at present not judged from their peak price ? please explain. Because I have a theory, you dont and if you read my posts why i said buy and the criteria i applied to why buy.

Theres this magical thing called the CSO.

What theory?

You lack on any specifics and are just bulls'hitting your way through pages of answers

kennyb3

Anyway im out. Going round and round in circles with you when you havent given any valid reasoning is a waste. Why i bothered i dont now. Cheerio!

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

Theres this magical thing called the CSO.

What theory?

You lack on any specifics and are just bulls'hitting your way through pages of answers

and how do the central statistics office work out the current value and work out the percentage fall.

please enlighten me.


my theory is the fall from the peak price using a percentage fall each year starting from the peak price. yours is pie in the sky or hot air. or do you really knowand keeping it a secret? id say monkey see , pie in the sky to be honest.

so if you didnt know in the first place. you shouldnt have got involved.I hope thats specific enough for you.or maybe spiritofthekop can enlighten us as he is using you as his form of learning in the university of life.

Ray Palmer

Marcanthony wrote: »

and how do the central statistics office work out the current value and work out the percentage fall.

Very valid point there is no accurate way to find out what house sold for and it is all based on very fuzzy data. The sooner they get a registry the better unfortunately they are likely to connect it to the household property tax at some point.

Marcanthony

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Very valid point there is no accurate way to find out what house sold for and it is all based on very fuzzy data. The sooner they get a registry the better unfortunately they are likely to connect it to the household property tax at some point.

thank you ray for a very valid point also.

Most of the stats been used at present are been used from the peak price in most instances. However you are correct.

and anybody using the pie in the sky method. needs some serious help.

I know kennyb3 maybe had good intentions with a purpose that is agreed upon by many of his peers, but using a method of guessing to solve a problem or clarify an issue is ridiculos.

Zamboni

Marcanthony wrote: »

and anybody using the pie in the sky method. needs some serious help.

Marcanthony wrote: »

my theory is the fall from the peak price using a percentage fall each year starting from the peak price.

You are actually for real, aren't you?
I thought you wear a wum but you are actually quite serious.

Ps: That is not a theory. I don't actually know what it is other than random words. But it certainly does not show any correlation between peak prices and current and/or future prices.

Marcanthony

Zamboni wrote: »

You are actually for real, aren't you?
I thought you wear a wum but you are actually quite serious.

Ps: That is not a theory. I don't actually know what it is other than random words. But it certainly does not show any correlation between peak prices and current and/or future prices.

if my theory does not sound right or the statistics I provided.Please provide your opinion on the cost of properties and protential loss in price or
go back to sleep.

Also why is it commonly stated prices are down such a percentage from the boom.

Rather than prices are currently down such a percentage of what we think is the proper price.(pie in the sky)

daltonmd

The CSO don't deal in theory, they use the information provided by the mortgage lenders - the banks. So they deal with actual sales prices.

Marcanthony

daltonmd wrote: »

The CSO don't deal in theory, they use the information provided by the mortgage lenders - the banks. So they deal with actual sales prices.

now I didnt know that in fairness.So how does it work as to be able to confirm confirmation of a property price including the rate they project they will fall.

I never hear statements confirming prices only statements confirming price falls in a percentage form from the peak of the boom.

oflahero

Marcanthony wrote: »

and anybody using the pie in the sky method. needs some serious help.
.

Says the guy who claimed (on another thread) 'there is a constitutional right to housing', was challenged on it, quoted the Simon website on their 'aspirations regarding housing in the Constitution' as the actual Constitution, got called out on it, and then said 'oh it's there somewhere I can't find it on the web.'

God I should really stop reading Boards, it's such a horribly addictive waste of time...