Am I mad to buy in 2012

daltonmd

Marcanthony wrote: »

so thats a possible 81% from the peak price before it will start to recover, thanks for your opinion. I have been working on 70% as a max.

Can i point out to you how that "recovery" will look? Say I bought a house at peak for 100k. If it drops by 70 % to 30k and using the "house prices rise every 7 years" and assuming that this year there will be no more falls then in 2018 my 30k (previously 100k) house will rise by 100% to 60k. This despite 3 more austerity budgets? I'm not sure about that.

jmayo

Marcanthony wrote: »

You make good sense and appear to have a lot of knowledge in this field. So with an example I will ask your opinion.

A property bought in 1985 I can confirm was bought for £40k approx €50.

In 1994 its sale price was €90k.

At the peak of the boom was valued at €350k

Now deducting 70% from its peak. Would be a value of €105k.

This is bringing the property back to its value before the boom (almost, excluding inflation ect). This is where I am getting my theory from. Do you think they will fall below that value.

Some will, some may not.
If some properties go low enough one of the things that might start happening, as alluded to by one landlord here in another thread, is that investors with money may start buying property for cash.

Hell there may be some FTBs or trader uppers who might have enough cash to buy.

But as many have said here there are no indications that the slide has stopped and that we are at the bottom.
As I said I believe we are headed for mid to late 90s levels.
In some cases some properties may be almost unsellable.

Marcanthony wrote: »

my point was never about the rate that they where falling or in what area. My point was if you buy a property 60/70% under the peak price.its a good investment and probably best time to buy.

It is a better investment and a better time to buy than in 2006.

I have reclarified that for you.

Because it is better than 2006 or 2005, etc doesn't necessarily make it a good investment and it doesn't mean it the best time to buy.

You are one of these people that appears to have got 2006 and 2007 lodged in your head.
Comparing prices today to 2006 prices will always make it look better, but you got to start factoring in how it compares to say 1995 or how much it is a multiple of average wage or rental return.

Look at Irish bank shares as another example, although they (bar Anglo ) have significantly more chance of making a comeback than property.

Marcanthony wrote: »

i never said 80% . i said 60/70 and yes they are available at present do your homework. I am in negotiations for one at present. good luck

Do you have any other investments bar property ?
It is always good to spread your risk and not have all your eggs in one basket.

pwurple

I think people should buy when it suits their personal circumstances, and not try to second guess the market unless you are a speculator. We have lives to live. If you are buying a home for yourself and your family to live it, then it is long term enough that the market doesn't matter, it's not at the peak, and unlikely to go back up there, the rest will level out eventually.

Even if you do want to upgrade in 5 years time, and the market has dropped further, everything across the board will have dropped with it, so the gap is smaller anyway.

On the salary loss issue, if you are permanent in your job, and in a stable sector (tech, pharma etc), then go for it. And also consider that there are options available to deal with job loss, as long as you engage with the bank. Payment Breaks, Switching to interest only repayment. It need not be the end of the world, you will get some time to get back on your feet.

The difficulty at the moment is finding reasonable places to buy. Ghost esates are mostly slapped up things you won't want to live in, and everything else is estate sales.

Balmed Out

pwurple wrote: »

I think people should buy when it suits their personal circumstances, and not try to second guess the market unless you are a speculator. We have lives to live. If you are buying a home for yourself and your family to live it, then it is long term enough that the market doesn't matter, it's not at the peak, and unlikely to go back up there, the rest will level out eventually.

Ahm I think its thinking like that thats got us into the mess were in.
The market always matters. You could be knocked down tomorrow and require a bungalow. Your 3 storey town house isnt suitable but the negative equity means the bank wont allow you to sell it. Your job could move, you could be divorced etc etc etc.

You have a responibility to yourself not to pay more then needs be to give you and your family the best quality of life as you can and you have a responsibility to society not to stretch your finances buying a property you cant afford.

Marcanthony

jmayo wrote: »

Some will, some may not.
If some properties go low enough one of the things that might start happening, as alluded to by one landlord here in another thread, is that investors with money may start buying property for cash.

Hell there may be some FTBs or trader uppers who might have enough cash to buy.

But as many have said here there are no indications that the slide has stopped and that we are at the bottom.
As I said I believe we are headed for mid to late 90s levels.
In some cases some properties may be almost unsellable.



It is a better investment and a better time to buy than in 2006.

I have reclarified that for you.

Because it is better than 2006 or 2005, etc doesn't necessarily make it a good investment and it doesn't mean it the best time to buy.

You are one of these people that appears to have got 2006 and 2007 lodged in your head.
Comparing prices today to 2006 prices will always make it look better, but you got to start factoring in how it compares to say 1995 or how much it is a multiple of average wage or rental return.

Look at Irish bank shares as another example, although they (bar Anglo ) have significantly more chance of making a comeback than property.



Do you have any other investments bar property ?
It is always good to spread your risk and not have all your eggs in one basket.

Do you have any other investments bar property ?
It is always good to spread your risk and not have all your eggs in one basket.[/QUOTE]
investors with money are at present buying property for cash at present at 60/70% from the peak prices and possibly by more depending on negotiations with seller/EA.
There are no indications that the slide has stopped . But my point of view is that property on sale at present have not hit realistic sales prices and If property does fall anymore below 70%. If you can buy at the 70%. Its a great investment.
Example of two similar properties in the same area at present.

property 1. Asking price 200k. This is 50% of its peak price.
property 2. Asking price 300k. This is 25% of its peak price.

Owner of property 2. Is either (A). in disney land or (B) cant afford to sell any lower. However he is not realistically priced.

If you can negotiate a sale with property 1. for 60/70% . Its a great investment.

Rental in current market for similar properties as above. €1000.00 per mth.
First time buyer buys this property instead of renting at 60% of its peak price. €160,000 @ 5.35 %( fixed for 5 years ) over a 20 year term and allowing his intrest relief. He will repay after his intrest relief.
Will be approx €870 per mth.He can rent a room tax free to almost cover this entire sum.NOW I THINK THATS A GREAT INVESTMENT.



I never mentioned it is better than 2006 or 2005, etc doesn't necessarily make it a good investment and it doesn't mean it the best time to buy.I stated a % from its peak price and gave an example of a property from the 80s to date (with a max percentage fall in my opinion).

My experience lies in the property industry.Therfore I tend to look for a niche or investments in the property industry. If my experience was in the stocks/shares market. I would probably invest in stocks/shares. However I am a beliver horses are for certain courses and the less you know the bigger your protential loss.

Balmed Out

Marcanthony wrote: »

Rental in current market for similar properties as above. €1000.00 per mth.
First time buyer buys this property instead of renting at 60% of its peak price. €160,000 @ 5.35 %( fixed for 5 years ) over a 20 year term and allowing his intrest relief. He will repay after his intrest relief.
Will be approx €870 per mth.He can rent a room tax free to almost cover this entire sum.NOW I THINK THATS A GREAT INVESTMENT.

I dont know about someone spending almost €870 to rent a room in a house that can be rented for €1000.
If you can find them then thats a great tennant.

Marcanthony

Balmed Out wrote: »

I dont know about someone spending almost €870 to rent a room in a house that can be rented for €1000.
If you can find them then thats a great tennant.

you can under the rent a room scheme.take in 10k tax free. do a bit of homework.;)
maybe the (Thomas's) might start looking outside the box now.

oflahero

There's been a lot of 'Compared to peak price this is value' comments in this thread. This is meaningless. 60% under peak price? 70%? Who cares? How much did it cost in the sixties compared to now? It's just as (ir)relevant.

What *is* relevant is equivalent rental yield, future buyer income expectations and future government interventions in the market, be they tax breaks or property charges. The latter two are clearly unquantifiable. But rental yield is the best 'hard data' metric you've got.

Snakeblood

oflahero wrote: »

There's been a lot of 'Compared to peak price this is value' comments in this thread. This is meaningless. 60% under peak price? 70%? Who cares? How much did it cost in the sixties compared to now? It's just as (ir)relevant.

What *is* relevant is equivalent rental yield, future buyer income expectations and future government interventions in the market, be they tax breaks or property charges. The latter two are clearly unquantifiable. But rental yield is the best 'hard data' metric you've got.

Well, you can quantify the property charges as 'They will increase' and the tax breaks as 'They will probably decrease'. It's not 100% but there's a reasonable level of certainty about those.

desertcircus

Where are these places that can be bought for about 175k or rented for a thousand a month? I took a peek at Dublin 6 on Daft and all I could find was one-beds and a bungalow on a floodplain...

Balmed Out

Marcanthony wrote: »

you can under the rent a room scheme.take in 10k tax free. do a bit of homework.;)
maybe the (Thomas's) might start looking outside the box now.

A house that can be bought for 160000 and rented in its entirety for 1000 wont be making anything near 870 for a room.

Marcanthony

oflahero wrote: »

There's been a lot of 'Compared to peak price this is value' comments in this thread. This is meaningless. 60% under peak price? 70%? Who cares? How much did it cost in the sixties compared to now? It's just as (ir)relevant.

What *is* relevant is equivalent rental yield, future buyer income expectations and future government interventions in the market, be they tax breaks or property charges. The latter two are clearly unquantifiable. But rental yield is the best 'hard data' metric you've got.

Because estimating prices from the fall of there peak is the only logical way to determain a price. Unless you can confirm different. If we did not have a boom. We would be probably working on a percentage increase/fall on last your prices.

and

Anybody investing should have in place a contingency plan in relation to their invstment/economic situation.

also

my example I gave you has a great return for an investor in the current situation with what confirmation of taxs and charges are confirmed. we can only estimate protential taxs and charges for the future.

Marcanthony

Balmed Out wrote: »

A house that can be bought for 160000 and rented in its entirety for 1000 wont be making anything near 870 for a room.

Read the rent a room scheme and then come back to us. night, night.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

Because estimating prices from the fall of there peak is the only logical way to determain a price. Unless you can confirm different. If we did not have a boom. We would be probably working on a percentage increase/fall on last your prices.

and

Anybody investing should have in place a contingency plan in relation to their invstment/economic situation.

also

my example I gave you has a great return for an investor in the current situation with what confirmation of taxs and charges are confirmed. we can only estimate protential taxs and charges for the future.

Your lack of intelligence boggles the mind.

Its no wonder your named after a bath tub. I'd say your not doing that plumbing company of yours any favours either.

There are plenty of other ways of valuing houses other than past prices.

Your talking absolute nonsense all the way through this thread and making a fool of yourself.

I and others have tried arguing with you but you only answer what you want and ignore everything put to you.

Marcanthony

desertcircus wrote: »

Where are these places that can be bought for about 175k or rented for a thousand a month? I took a peek at Dublin 6 on Daft and all I could find was one-beds and a bungalow on a floodplain...

on daft.ie and myhome.ie. I used an example from a private property in the South Dublin area using its peak price.A peak price in Dublin 6 could be higher than 350k and if the Mods allow and confirm I can post examples. I will.

oflahero

Marcanthony wrote: »

Because estimating prices from the fall of there peak is the only logical way to determain a price.

As they say on the internet, 'Wut?' Or, 'What is this I don't even'.

Sorry, but you can't say something as gobsmackingly meaningless as this and not expect someone to take the bait.

So Mars bars were going for a tenner in the great caramel drought of '06. They've since fallen to three euro a pop. Is this good value? Cos they've fallen by 70%.

If you can buy an apartment at a price which will return you a steady yield of 6%+ when taxes, charges, void periods, and depreciation are taken into account, then this sounds to me like 'the only logical way to determain [sic] a price.'

Marcanthony

oflahero wrote: »

As they say on the internet, 'Wut?' Or, 'What is this I don't even'.

Sorry, but you can't say something as gobsmackingly meaningless as this and not expect someone to take the bait.

So Mars bars were going for a tenner in the great caramel drought of '06. They've since fallen to three euro a pop. Is this good value? Cos they've fallen by 70%.

If you can buy an apartment at a price which will return you a steady yield of 6%+ when taxes, charges, void periods, and depreciation are taken into account, then this sounds to me like 'the only logical way to determain [sic] a price.'

Im an investor. Are you? I dont buy mars bars to sell either now or to sell in the future with a profit in mind or a return.However if you woul like to invest in a wager. I will gladly place a bet with you (once cash is put up front) on the outcome in the future.To determain who will be close enough to the correct outcome.

So either give hard evidence of how the situation works at present or good night.

and if you read my posts. I state in my opinion apartments outside a radius of the CBD are bad investments. Right criteria , right price, good investment.

oflahero

Marcanthony wrote: »

Im an investor. Are you?

Yes.

or good night.

I give up. Good night.

Victor

Folks, can we chill out or more warnings and infractions will be handed out.

kennyb3 wrote: »

Your lack of intelligence boggles the mind.

Its no wonder your named after a bath tub. I'd say your not doing that plumbing company of yours any favours either.

There are plenty of other ways of valuing houses other than past prices.

Your talking absolute nonsense all the way through this thread and making a fool of yourself.

I and others have tried arguing with you but you only answer what you want and ignore everything put to you.

No need for name calling.

borderlinemeath

There's a huge emphasis on this thread about rental yields and the property market bottoming out but if the OP is looking to purchase a family home to stay put in for the next 25yrs + then it's logical it will be an emotional decision. Depreciation over the next 25 years will most likely even out, hell they might even make a profit:D. There's plenty of scaremongering with headlines of 70% drop from the boom in the press and on the thread but research the area you want to buy in because all areas are different and even postcodes within Dublin will fall slower than others. I'd safely say that D6w is a safer bet than other areas as traditionally the areas that have fallen the slowest are D6/D4/D18.

In the boom years ftb were fairly restricted to poorly constructed shoebox apartments in far flung areas to 'get on the ladder' but now at least the lucky few that are mortgage approved can go straight to the 'family home' option - with the intention to stay there for the lifetime of the mortgage. Only with this in mind would I consider purchasing.


OP, I wouldn't use the full value of the mortgage offer. The area you're looking at is a good established area of Dublin and asking prices for 3 bed semis in Templeogue are under €300k. There's houses in Terenure for under €300K too. Bear in mind that's the asking price and not what they will actually go for, there might be 20% difference in the accepted offer price than what is listed, depending on how desparate the owners are to sell. Don't jump at the first thing you see either, take your time, there's not queues of people waiting to buy anymore, you've plenty of time to come to a decision, and as prices are still falling, the longer you wait the better value you might get.

Marcanthony

oflahero wrote: »

Yes.

I give up. Good night.

I would say your an investor who does not make poor decisions or careless mistakes .I can see that.By your response to my questions.

Wait till till the monkey sees, before you progress.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

Your lack of intelligence boggles the mind.

Its no wonder your named after a bath tub. I'd say your not doing that plumbing company of yours any favours either.

There are plenty of other ways of valuing houses other than past prices.

Your talking absolute nonsense all the way through this thread and making a fool of yourself.

I and others have tried arguing with you but you only answer what you want and ignore everything put to you.

You will find I have many business intrests and plumbing just one amalgimated to others for its purpose.

However lads like yourself in rental accomadation (most likly been subsidized) and wasting EA agents time by viewing property as a day out with no intentions of buying. (you stated this in an other post)

Would be better adviced to use your spare time looking for a job or improving your carrer . Instead of been a latchico.(take what ever meaning of a latchico,you like)

NB There may be plenty of other ways of valuing houses other than past prices.
however. No matter what why its done. To confirm the price.You can always judge the price in a percentage from its peak.If i am incorrect. Please enlighten me.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

You will find I have many business intrests and plumbing just one amalgimated to others for its purpose.

However lads like yourself in rental accomadation (most likly been subsidized) and wasting EA agents time by viewing property as a day out with no intentions of buying. (you stated this in an other post)

Would be better adviced to use your spare time looking for a job or improving your carrer . Instead of been a latchico.(take what ever meaning of a latchico,you like)

God you really are bitter.

Subsidized? I'm a chartered accountant with a very good job, living in a nice area, thanks a million.

Enjoy negative equity sucker!

Voodoo_rasher

"Me and my partner just got approved for a €400k mortgage."

The in-laws made me do it ha ha!

Bankbitch.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

God you really are bitter.

Subsidized? I'm a chartered accountant with a very good job, living in a nice area, thanks a million.

Enjoy negative equity sucker!

If you read my posts. You will find I sold at the right time. However took a calculated risk on others. I do not have negative equity as such. As I can balance the loans with the profits. But they will be paid for in time (been an investment) , so why use cash, to do this. Your an accountant. I will take your advice in that area.

you are renting an apartment in a nice area. if thats what you want in life. I wish you well.But instead of wasting EA time you could be following your dream as physical therapist or since your not that long qualified and working as an employee (gain more experience).Probably would be a better way to use your spare time.As you dont seem to have invested in any property at any time or appear to make any investments in property any time soon. But you could update on the prices of properties you are viewing as a hobby.

or since your in the accountancy industry.Advice on protential costs (taxs ect) outside its propery price.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

If you read my posts. You will find I sold at the right time. However took a calculated risk on others. I do not have negative equity as such. As I can balance the loans with the profits. But they will be paid for in time (been an investment) , so why use cash, to do this. Your an accountant. I will take your advice in that area.

you are renting an apartment in a nice area. if thats what you want in life. I wish you well.But instead of wasting EA time you could be following your dream as physical therapist or since your not that long qualified and working as an employee (gain more experience).Probably would be a better way to use your spare time.As you dont seem to have invested in any property at any time or appear to make any investments in property any time soon. But you could update on the prices of properties you are viewing as a hobby.

or since your in the accountancy industry.Advice on protential costs (taxs ect) outside its propery price.

Thanks for the life advice, but i prefer to listen to people who can at least spell and string sentences together.

Why does it get on your goat so much that I haven't bought?

Why do you seem to think i spend all my time wasting EA's time? How many houses have i viewed?

You've turned a house buying thread into an investment property thread.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

Thanks for the life advice, but i prefer to listen to people who can at least spell and string sentences together.

Why does it get on your goat so much that I haven't bought?

Why do you seem to think i spend all my time wasting EA's time? How many houses have i viewed?

You've turned a house buying thread into an investment property thread.

Id say you would prefer to read advice from people that can spell and string sentences together.Apologies for spelling ect. I may have to go to the english grammer forum for lessons.I am giving my opinion on is it the time to buy now. Not on how to write the contract.

I have not tried to turn a a house buying thread into an investment property thread. The originall question is it now the right time to buy?
I thought it was giving certain criteria and 60/70% fall from its peak was part of it.

its tnot getting on my goat so much that you haven't bought. Its because You keep employing theres many other ways to work out a value. But will not state any explanations.

I stated no matter what way prices will be determained. It can always be used as a percentage rate from its peak.

And In my opinion deducting 60/70% from the peak. Is a great investment to buy at that price. With the right criteria in place.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

oflahero already made you look stupid on the rental yield thing and his mars bar analogy I think think i needed to make matters worse.

You just keep repeating yourself - its tedious now.

I've added you to my ignore list because:

- You cant spell.
- You cant write/structure clear sentences
- You dont reply to questions asked
- You ignore half of a post and focus on the part you want
- You can't see anyone elses viewpoint
- You keep talking about investments - you did again above
- You clearly have a vested interest
- Nobody agrees with you
- And despite the fact you personally are in negative equity your trying to give out investment advice.

You cant spell. Agree. however does not effect my earnings or business intrests.
You cant write/structure clear sentences.Agree. however does not effect my earnings or business intrests.
- You ignore half of a post and focus on the part you want.Agree. In relation to what has been stated previously and been used again.
You can't see anyone elses viewpoint. Disagree. I have acknoldeged any posters good advice and If I did not know.What they mentioned. I stated this.
You keep talking about investments - Agree. As it has a big part to play in the answer of Is it the right time to buy. As property will be the biggest purchase most people will make in life.
You clearly have a vested interest. Agree. However I am only stating my opinion and advice.I told my brother to sell in mar 2006. He did and has thanked me for my opinion and advice constantly since.
Nobody agrees with you.disagree . The majority of people probably disagee. But time will tell.
You are in negative equity your trying to give out investment advice. disagree. read the posts.I would class NE as not having enough to clear the outstanding balance after a sale.I did a calculated risk after selling some. As I had good reasons to belive a fall was on the way. But in fairness. I didnt know by howmuch at the time. But I estimate now 60/70% worse case scenario.

jmayo

Marcanthony wrote: »

investors with money are at present buying property for cash at present at 60/70% from the peak prices and possibly by more depending on negotiations with seller/EA.
There are no indications that the slide has stopped . But my point of view is that property on sale at present have not hit realistic sales prices and If property does fall anymore below 70%. If you can buy at the 70%. Its a great investment.
Example of two similar properties in the same area at present.

property 1. Asking price 200k. This is 50% of its peak price.
property 2. Asking price 300k. This is 25% of its peak price.

Owner of property 2. Is either (A). in disney land or (B) cant afford to sell any lower. However he is not realistically priced.

If you can negotiate a sale with property 1. for 60/70% . Its a great investment.

Rental in current market for similar properties as above. €1000.00 per mth.
First time buyer buys this property instead of renting at 60% of its peak price. €160,000 @ 5.35 %( fixed for 5 years ) over a 20 year term and allowing his intrest relief. He will repay after his intrest relief.
Will be approx €870 per mth.He can rent a room tax free to almost cover this entire sum.NOW I THINK THATS A GREAT INVESTMENT.

Your entire idea appears to be predicated on rental rates, taxes and interest rates staying as they are and that is highly doubtful in the current climate.

On a long term commerical lease property you have some expectation of rental but on residential in the current market ?
As for the other two God knows.

Marcanthony wrote: »

My experience lies in the property industry.Therfore I tend to look for a niche or investments in the property industry. If my experience was in the stocks/shares market. I would probably invest in stocks/shares. However I am a beliver horses are for certain courses and the less you know the bigger your protential loss.

And I am a believer in not having all my eggs in one basket.

Marcanthony wrote: »

Because estimating prices from the fall of there peak is the only logical way to determain a price. Unless you can confirm different.

Oh dear God. :eek:
As they say on a famous TV show "I am out".

BTW the quality of your writing is pretty poor and sometimes it is difficult to fathom what you are on about.
And yes your ability to write properly does not mean you can't be rich and successful.
It just means you may not be able to get your point of view across adequately.

Theboinkmaster

Marcanthony wrote: »

NB There may be plenty of other ways of valuing houses other than past prices.
however. No matter what why its done. To confirm the price.You can always judge the price in a percentage from its peak.If i am incorrect. Please enlighten me.

You are incorrect. The price at the peak is entirely irrelevant when determining value now, or ever.