Am I mad to buy in 2012

calculator

Marcanthony wrote: »

EA sales department. What you think.

In keeping with your other posts, you have failed to address the question. I don't believe the poster claimed to be an EA. In which department is he lacking?

Marcanthony

calculator wrote: »

In keeping with your other posts, you have failed to address the question. I don't believe the poster claimed to be an EA. In which department is he lacking?

positivity Department.

I have given hard evidence. So let people make up there own mind. Anybody that has given negative point of views. Have not given any real reasons why not to buy now.

Other than your brain will tell you . Its not the right time. ..................or wait till monkey sees, monkey do............... ect.

FFS.....At least state why.With a bit of back up to prove the point.

I apologise if I offend anybody. But I am not a sheep and I dont really what to say , just for the sake of it, what other people want to hear. So I can be their friend. I am only providing an opinion with experience in that area.

calculator

Marcanthony wrote: »

positivity Department.

I have given hard evidence. So let people make up there own mind. Anybody that has given negative point of views. Have not given any real reasons why not to buy now.

Other than your brain will tell you . Its not the right time. ..................or wait till monkey sees, monkey do............... ect.

FFS.....At least state why.With a bit of back up to prove the point.

You can keep saying 'monkey see, monkey do' (in multiple threads) for as long as you want. It doesn't actually MEAN anything. You insist upon going on about % price drop from the peak - that is a statement of fact, it does not actually mean anything. Prices will drop, and we can keep working out the % drop from the peak. It does not give any indication of the value of a particular property. My sympathies on your negative equity

Marcanthony

calculator wrote: »

You can keep saying 'monkey see, monkey do' (in multiple threads) for as long as you want. It doesn't actually MEAN anything. You insist upon going on about % price drop from the peak - that is a statement of fact, it does not actually mean anything. Prices will drop, and we can keep working out the % drop from the peak. It does not give any indication of the value of a particular property. My sympathies on your negative equity

The reason I say monkey see , monkey do. Is due to the fact. Anybody making decisions in any walk of life . Should make them themselfs, rather than because he/she is not doing it. Im not doing it.You can take advice, but the decision is yours.I tend to deal with facts and figures.Which I have provided.

It will not give an exact figure. You are correct.
But there is no exact figure at present. So I am giving my oponion of what is protentially a good purchase now. giving a percentage rate from the peak price.

PS. i dont need to worry about NE or rise/fall in the market. Read my posts.

calculator

Marcanthony wrote: »

The reason I say monkey see , monkey do. Is due to the fact. Anybody making decisions in any walk of life . Should make them themselfs, rather than because he/she is not doing it. Im not doing it.You can take advice, but the decision is yours.I tend to deal with facts and figures.Which I have provided.

It will not give an exact figure. You are correct.
But there is no exact figure at present. So I am giving my oponion of what is protentially a good purchase now. giving a percentage rate from the peak price.

You are NOT GETTING the fact that the % drop means NOTHING. Prices could theoretically drop another 20% in the next few years - would your investment in property now look so good? No. The % price drop from the peak is just a very simple mathematical calculation, it is most certainly not a method for determining the worth or value of a property. The rental yield would be the most accurate.

Marcanthony

calculator wrote: »

You are NOT GETTING the fact that the % drop means NOTHING. Prices could theoretically drop another 20% in the next few years - would your investment in property now look so good? No. The % price drop from the peak is just a very simple mathematical calculation, it is most certainly not a method for determining the worth or value of a property. The rental yield would be the most accurate.

I understand that Prices could theoretically drop another 20% in the next few years.The rental yield could be the most accurate. So look at the evidence I have provided.

I have used a property sold and its rental price at present including its repayments over 20 years with protential losses.The yield of rental on that property regardless of its price in the future. But using the figures stated are very good.Rent falling will be a factor. But that will happen gradually.

calculator

Marcanthony wrote: »

I understand that Prices could theoretically drop another 20% in the next few years.The rental yield could be the most accurate. So look at the evidence I have provided.

I have used a property sold and its rental price at present including its repayments over 20 years with protential losses.The yield of rental on that property regardless of its price, is good.

You have not provided any evidence that the % drop from the peak is any measure of the value of a property. I am one of the many people who has tried to point this out to you. This is NOT a 'theory' - it is a simple mathematical calculation. However low prices drop, we will be able to calculate the % drop from the peak. It will still be utterly meaningless.

Marcanthony

calculator wrote: »

You have not provided any evidence that the % drop from the peak is any measure of the value of a property. I am one of the many people who has tried to point this out to you. This is NOT a 'theory' - it is a simple mathematical calculation. However low prices drop, we will be able to calculate the % drop from the peak. It will still be utterly meaningless.

I have just shown evidence of a property sale 65% of its peak value.

You are correct. low prices drop, will be able to calculate the % drop from the peak.
I am estimating in my opinion after all the low/high percentage falls level out. It will be approx 60/70% of its peak value.So if you can buy at them prices now (60/70% of there peak price).Its a good buy now.

And properties for sale at 60/70% of there peak price are selling. I proved that also.

However the same property i used as an example. others in the same area and similar are 50k plus dearer and are not selling.so working a them figures a realistic price sale is 60/70% of the properties peak price.

If all sellers eventually sell at a realistic price.Will the market bottom out?
Is it really the best time to but now?Probably if you can buy now at 60/70% of there peak value.

calculator

Marcanthony wrote: »

calculator wrote: »

You have not provided any evidence that the % drop from the peak is any measure of the value of a property. I am one of the many people who has tried to point this out to you. This is NOT a 'theory' - it is a simple mathematical calculation. However low prices drop, we will be able to calculate the % drop from the peak. It will still be utterly meaningless.

I have just shown evidence of a property sale 65% of its peak value.

You are correct. low prices drop, will be able to calculate the % drop from the peak.
I am estimating in my opinion after all the low/high percentage falls level out. It will be approx 60/70% of its peak value.So if you can buy at them prices now (60/70% of there peak price).Its a good buy now.

And properties for sale at 60/70% of there peak price are selling. I proved that also.

However the same property i used as an example. others in the same area and similar are 50k plus dearer and are not selling.

The current asking prices are 65% of peak prices. This is all the information we have and anything else is speculative.

Marcanthony

calculator wrote: »

The current asking prices are 65% of asking prices. This is all the information we have and anything else is speculative.

Thats not confirmed.But as I can gather , keeping a close eye on the market. The ones that are selling are selling at that % rate.


and yes the rest is speculation.Its upto the individual if they think they will fall any further.

But all properties are not priced at this % rate and are not selling.Some people cant afford to sell at that rate. so have different asking prices. Prices for similar properties in similar areas range in price from 50k - 200k.

Do you understand the point. I am trying to make? its not a good time to buy property valued above that rate now. But probably is if you buy at 60/70% of its peak price at this moment in time,

beertons

OP. Myself and my missus are on similar wages. We just bought a house. We couldn't afford a 365k mortgage. After paying a chunk of a deposit, we took 220, over 20 years. How many years is your mortgage for?

calculator

Marcanthony wrote: »

calculator wrote: »

The current asking prices are 65% of asking prices. This is all the information we have and anything else is speculative.

Thats not confirmed.But as I can gather , keeping a close eye on the market. The ones that are selling are selling at that % rate.


and yes the rest is speculation.Its upto the individual if they think they will fall any further.

But all properties are not priced at this % rate and are not selling.Some people cant afford to sell at that rate. so have different asking prices. Prices for similar properties in similar areas range in price from 50k - 200k.

Do you understand the point. I am trying to make? its not a good time to buy property valued above that rate now. But probably is if you buy at 60/70% of its peak price at this moment in time,

You are a lost cause. Perhaps you could spend tomorrow investigating the maths behind rental yields instead of sitting on boards all day waiting for validation.

Marcanthony

calculator wrote: »

You are a lost cause. Perhaps you could spend tomorrow investigating the maths behind rental yields instead of sitting on boards all day waiting for validation.

time will tell.

I am not affraid to buy at the them prices and with people like yourself waiting and renting. Just more protential clients for the rental market. while you work, to pay the rent, the landlords profits rise (especially at them prices). Thanks

and apologies the rental yield on the property I used as an example is very good. If the property stays at that price it was bought for.But it all depends on the market dropping below the price that property was bought for. (65 % of its peak). So unless you can confirm it will drop by more. The rental yield is very good.

royaler83

calculator wrote: »

You are NOT GETTING the fact that the % drop means NOTHING. Prices could theoretically drop another 20% in the next few years - would your investment in property now look so good? No. The % price drop from the peak is just a very simple mathematical calculation, it is most certainly not a method for determining the worth or value of a property. The rental yield would be the most accurate.

100% correct

housetypeb

Marcanthony wrote: »

Because now is probably best time to buy. Must of hit a nerve did I. Ill give you example of where you could be on that loan over a term 5 , 10 , 15 , 20 years.Just to rub salt into your wound.

and if you wait 5 years or maybe 10 till it bottoms out . While your paying rent at the same value.You will lose out on this .
The property above over a 20 year term loan and losing value at 30% every 5 years....
In 5 years time loan amount will be approx €105k...and allowing a 30% fall in the next 5 years. The property will be valued at approx 90k.
and in 10 years...approx €78k. and allowing another 30% in prices over this 5 years. the property will be valued at approx €73k.
and in 15 years time ...aprox 40k. and allowing another 30% in prices over this 5 years. The property will be valued at approx €50k
and in 20 years time...YOU OWN THE PROPERTY....and allowing another 30% in prices over this 5 years.Property valued at approx €35k.

So it could make a difference buying now or in 5/10 years.
or When it bottoms out with prices like these like these.

SO in 20 years you will own a property worth 35k that you paid 129k+ for -paying back much more than that amount through the mortgage,sounds like a winner to me.

Marcanthony

royaler83 wrote: »

100% correct

I agree. But can not be done untill property prices are confirmed.

However I am

Estimating at a % rate from its peak value.
60/70% as a max fall in property prices.

but guessing the rental value is not so easy. As rental has not fallen as much as the property prices.Approx 25% from its peak.

but for properties that sold at 60/70% under its peak value.they are at present making rent of 75% of its peak.

So these are the only figures. that can be used at present and the rental yield on these prices is very good.Thats Assuming prices dont drop anymore than 60/70% and rental anymore than 25/35% from its peak .

Marcanthony

housetypeb wrote: »

SO in 20 years you will own a property worth 35k that you paid 129k+ for -paying back much more than that amount through the mortgage,sounds like a winner to me.

i used that as a worse case scenario. Thats not really going to happen.
If it does and its an investment/rental property. Sure wont you own it and still be getting rent. and at no stage during the term be in neg equity. And remember someone else paid for it.

And if its a home.Sure the rent you would have been paying. Would probably be more and you will own the property.

housetypeb

Marcanthony wrote: »

i used that as a worse case scenario. Thats not really going to happen.
If it does and its an investment/rental property. Sure wont you own it and still be getting rent. and at no stage during the term be in neg equity.

Why won't you be in negative equity if you paid 129k for it and it drops 30%?

Marcanthony

housetypeb wrote: »

Why won't you be in negative equity if you paid 129k for it and it drops 30%?

As long as you keep up with the repayments over the term i mentioned.

and as long as prices dont fall anymore than 65% (the amount paid for that property) in todays value and at a rate of 30% every 5 years after that.

The amount outstanding on your mortgage will be less than its value.

OUTOFSYNC

housetypeb wrote: »

SO in 20 years you will own a property worth 35k that you paid 129k+ for -paying back much more than that amount through the mortgage,sounds like a winner to me.

I think the point was - worse case scenario price drops every year - you would have spent 129K on a house and its worth 35K,

But if you rented it for 20 years at 10k a year - after 20 years you would have spent 150k to 200k on rent and have NO house.

Marcanthony

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

I think the point was - worse case scenario price drops every year - you would have spent 129K on a house and its worth 35K,

But if you rented it for 20 years at 10k a year - after 20 years you would have spent 150k to 200k on rent and have NO house.

Exactly thanks. and thats not going to happen. That would mean in 20 years time prices will have still dropped at considerable rates and would be slightly more than 90% of its peak value.

other things to take in to consideration . inflation ect. That wont happen. But if it does at no stage will you be in NE .

so is now the time to buy? at them rates. probably yes.

housetypeb

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

I think the point was - worse case scenario price drops every year - you would have spent 129K on a house and its worth 35K,

But if you rented it for 20 years at 10k a year - after 20 years you would have spent 150k to 200k on rent and have NO house.

I got that,It's why cash investors are back on the prowl.

Marcanthony

housetypeb wrote: »

I got that,It's why cash investors are back on the prowl.

Hit the nail on the head and ive been at a few auctions recently and I can confirm property is selling and roughly at the rates I mention.

however cash buyers are in a great position for a bigger profit on rent returns at present. But the original op that asked the question. Is also in a great position. he has approval. Thats a big factor in homes not selling. people cant get credit.

So is now the best time to buy? Probably.

kennyb3

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

I think the point was - worse case scenario price drops every year - you would have spent 129K on a house and its worth 35K,

But if you rented it for 20 years at 10k a year - after 20 years you would have spent 150k to 200k on rent and have NO house.

Wow, dont be over simplistic there. And with interest how much money will you have spent to own that property. And how much tax, insurance etc will you have paid in them interim years.

Not comparing like with like.

You need to compare cashflows.

Simply saying in one case you ll have an asset in the other you wont is plain wrong. How much have you actually bought that asset for?

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

As long as you keep up with the repayments over the term i mentioned.

and as long as prices dont fall anymore than 65% (the amount paid for that property) in todays value and at a rate of 30% every 5 years after that.

The amount outstanding on your mortgage will be less than its value.

One final question, then im definitely out.

Using all your criteria above how much will you have spent in the interim period just to break even? (i.e to just stay out of negative equity).

Lets see your maths. No bull****ting.

A simple maths answer will suffice.

kennyb3

Marcanthony wrote: »

i used that as a worse case scenario. Thats not really going to happen.
If it does and its an investment/rental property. Sure wont you own it and still be getting rent. and at no stage during the term be in neg equity. And remember someone else paid for it.

And if its a home.Sure the rent you would have been paying. Would probably be more and you will own the property.

Again no account taken of the fact that if you have any sort of a salary, tax on rent is nearly 50% - or do you not plan on paying tax? Or are you going to keep banging on about rent a room scheme which wouldnt apply if you are an investor? Or if your a couple your hardly going to want to rent a room in your house.

Add in NPPR charges, the fact your allowed only 75% of the interest, further property tax down the line.

No allowance is made for possible interest rate increases (coming once the eurocrisis is sorted in the next 3/4 years).

Your calculations are like those of a 5 year olds.

Snakeblood

kennyb3 wrote: »

Again no account taken of the fact that if you have any sort of a salary, tax on rent is nearly 50% - or do you not plan on paying tax? Or are you going to keep banging on about rent a room scheme which wouldnt apply if you are an investor? Or if your a couple your hardly going to want to rent a room in your house.

Add in NPPR charges, the fact your allowed only 75% of the interest, further property tax down the line.

No allowance is made for possible interest rate increases (coming once the eurocrisis is sorted in the next 3/4 years).

Your calculations are like those of a 5 year olds.

Just walk away son.

Victor

kennyb3 wrote: »

God you really are bitter.

Subsidized? I'm a chartered accountant with a very good job, living in a nice area, thanks a million.

Enjoy negative equity sucker!

You were asked to play nice. Take the week off.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

Wow, dont be over simplistic there. And with interest how much money will you have spent to own that property. And how much tax, insurance etc will you have paid in them interim years.

Not comparing like with like.

You need to compare cashflows.

Simply saying in one case you ll have an asset in the other you wont is plain wrong. How much have you actually bought that asset for?

All fees will cost less than the rent.With what taxs and charges are confirmed to date.however alterations may need to be made to repayments.by extending the term of loan. But your an accountant.provide details, if this is incorrect.

You are an accountant I showed you confirmation of a property sale for approx 125k and rental @ 950. Take all expenses to date confirmed into account and losing one mounths rental each year. Tell me.

Is that a profit for an invester or a loss. On its current value with rental?

and

Is the repayments lower than a rental at them prices for a FTB/ family home? yessssssssssssssssss

And how much rent would have to fall by before it balances his repayments? quite a bit.

Marcanthony

kennyb3 wrote: »

One final question, then im definitely out.

Using all your criteria above how much will you have spent in the interim period just to break even? (i.e to just stay out of negative equity).

Lets see your maths. No bull****ting.

A simple maths answer will suffice.

As an investment property. I dont think any. Someone else is paying for it.

As a ftb / family home. Taking the difference between the rent and repayments. I would suggest none. As you would have to pay rent anyway and due to the fact your making quite a savings between the repayments amount and the rental amount.