Is property supply really to big and demand to small.

Marcanthony

With population an almost guarantee to increase over time and the big and increasing number of people on the housing list and the fact that been housed is a constitutional right .
Excluding properties still been over priced by some sellers. Is property not a great investment to buy now in the right location and with the right criteria.(not properties in the back of beyonds and apartments in rural villages ect). At present Realistically priced properties are 60% lower in asking price now than at the peak of the boom.With the living in a home buissness not going to go out of fashion anytime soon.Is now not the best time to buy ?
Bearing in mind the low level of mortgage approval and property prices still been negotiale at maybe 10 - 20% under the asking price .(you are getting the pick of the crop)

Would love to hear peoples opinions. i think there is some great investments out there right now.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

With population an almost guarantee to increase over time and the big and increasing number of people on the housing list and the fact that been housed is a constitutional right .
Excluding properties still been over priced by some sellers. Is property not a great investment to buy now in the right location and with the right criteria.(not properties in the back of beyonds and apartments in rural villages ect). At present Realistically priced properties are 60% lower in asking price now than at the peak of the boom.With the living in a home buissness not going to go out of fashion anytime soon.Is now not the best time to buy ?
Bearing in mind the low level of mortgage approval and property prices still been negotiale at maybe 10 - 20% under the asking price .(you are getting the pick of the crop)

Would love to hear peoples opinions. i think there is some great investments out there right now.

It was a bubble, not a boom. It doesn't make any difference what the percentage difference in price between now and then was.

Now isn't the best time to buy. Asking prices fell 16.7% in the year to date. I'm not sure why waiting until the price at least levels off wouldn't be a better idea. That's not taking into account the price register coming in, which would allow people to see what prices are actually paid, rather than what wildly optimistic sellers think they should be paid. Then you need to look at what prices have historically been as a multiple of income, and then ask yourself what they are now.

Do some research.

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

.

Do some research.

My research been an engineer is that property on the market can be bought in the right area at a price equall or less than building the same house in that area and trying to sourse the land.

And thats at current rates with labour prices at an all time low and the fact that I do not think supply outbeats demand for a home, just that supply outbeats demand for a buyer.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

My research been an engineer is that property on the market can be bought in the right area at a price equall or less than building the same house in that area and trying to sourse the land.

And thats at current rates with labour prices at an all time low and the fact that I do not think supply outbeats demand for a home, just that supply outbeats demand for a buyer.

Just because it's bad value to build something doesn't mean it's good value to buy it instead. I could throw fifty quid into the fire, it's certainly better value than throwing a hundred in, but it's still not a good idea.

How do you get that labour prices are at an all time low? Are they lower than during the 80s? The 70s?

I don't really understand your last sentence, I'm afraid.

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

Just because it's bad value to build something doesn't mean it's good value to buy it instead. I could throw fifty quid into the fire, it's certainly better value than throwing a hundred in, but it's still not a good idea.

How do you get that labour prices are at an all time low? Are they lower than during the 80s? The 70s?

I don't really understand your last sentence, I'm afraid.

well if you take the cost of living in the 70s and 80s against todays. I would say yes. Even with out the cost of living. i would still say yes. Tradesmen working for 60 euro a day at present. Just to get out of their house.

The point i am making in realtion to the build cost against the sale cost is.

This can not last forever and they are not going to give property away for zero or anywhere close.

the last point means.....people cant get credit at the moment playing a big factor in selling properties outside the cost of them

Please identify as an example what you think is a realistic price for a property against an area with the property size.

Rent will always play a factor in sale prices.As i stated people have to live some where. with or with out mortgage approval and buying a property now is still cheaper than renting in specific areas. Demand will always grow in the living in a home industry.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

well if you take the cost of living in the 70s and 80s. I would say yes.Even with out the cost of living i would still say yes. Tradesmen working for 60 euro a day at present. Just to get out of their house.

The point i am making of build cost against the sale cost is.

This can not last forever and they are not going to give property away for zero or anywhere close.

Please identify as an example what you think is a realistic price for a property against in area with the property size.

Rent will always play a factor in sale prices.As i stated people have to live some where

If tradesmen are taking sixty quid a day to work, then possibly a house built today would be good value. Whats being sold now are houses that were built in the bubble, at bubble costs for labour. Or second hand houses being sold for prices that people expected in the bubble, minus some theoretical 60% reduction that's got nothing to do with what the house is worth, it's just a reflection of what people expect to see. House prices increased 400% during the bubble. When they drop by 75%, not 60% there might be value. If it's not economical to build a house now then builders wont build them. There's still a massive overhang of NAMAed properties that are being held off the market in order to prop it up.

It'd depend on how much whoever was selling it thought they could charge for it, how much other houses there are in the area are on sale for, how many houses there are in the area, how much demand for the house there is, how the economy is doing, how people think the economy will be doing, what taxes there are on a property, what new taxes on income and property have been promised, and a multitude of other factors. There's also the matter of the property price database which will hopefully deflate prices to something slightly more reasonable.

I can't provide an example because every house is different. I'm also not inclined to, I don't see value at the moment.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

Demand will always grow.

THat's just not true, I'm afraid. The last five years should teach you that.

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

THat's just not true, I'm afraid. The last five years should teach you that.

supply can outbeat demand alright. that is what happened. But supply outbeat demand for buyers.You could still fill every vacant and unsold home in ireland and still have people on the housing list.so yes demand will always grow for a home.unless the death rate and emmigration outbeats the birth rate.

so what the last five years thought me was when demand is greater than supply make sure developers and builders are not building more than needed for the buyers market and dont belive your mother telling you that if you dont get on the property ladder now, you never will and while your listning thousands of houses are getting built.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

supply can outbeat demand alright. that is what happened. But supply outbeat demand for buyers.You could still fill every vacant and unsold home in ireland and still have people on the housing list.

so what the last five years thought me was when demand is greater than supply make sure developers and builders or not building more than needed for the buyers market.

I'm afraid what the last five years should have taught you was that the preceding ten years was fantasy land that was bought on credit and now has to be paid for.

You could fill every house and unsold home in Ireland from the housing list, if you bought them for them. People on the housing list by definition don't have the money to buy houses. If they did, they wouldn't be on the housing list. Builders don't have the money to build houses, people don't have the money to buy them and don't want to borrow the money to buy them, and banks don't want to lend them the money. Unemployment is at 14% Emigration is 76400 last year, doubling on the year before. Demand is dropping.

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

I'm afraid what the last five years should have taught you was that the preceding ten years was fantasy land that was bought on credit and now has to be paid for.

You could fill every house and unsold home in Ireland from the housing list, if you bought them for them. People on the housing list by definition don't have the money to buy houses. If they did, they wouldn't be on the housing list. Builders don't have the money to build houses, people don't have the money to buy them and don't want to borrow the money to buy them, and banks don't want to lend them the money. Unemployment is at 14% Emigration is 76400 last year, doubling on the year before. Demand is dropping.

Housing list or no housing list. its a constitutional right for these people to be housed and if the banks , builders ect dont have the money to finance/build/buy. Where are these people going to be housed? So yes supply will eventually beat demand for a home.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

Housing list or no housing list. its a constitutional right for these people to be housed and if the banks , builders ect dont have the money to finance/build/buy. Where are these people going to be housed? So yes supply will eventually beat demand for a home.

They're not homeless at the moment. They are housed somewhere.

Also, what exactly is the constitutional right to housing?

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

They're not homeless at the moment. They are housed somewhere.

Also, what exactly is the constitutional right to housing?

they are getting temp shelter or in over crowded living accom ect.Waiting to be housed.

constitutional right= your right to be housed by the state.
�� That the right to housing is “justiciable” i.e. where social policy or legislative measures fail - the right to housing should be specified in such a way as to be arbitrated, determined and enforced by the courts.
�� That the right to housing make real our international legal obligations
�� That the primary responsibility of the individual to meet their housing needs from their own resources is enshrined, ensuring the targeting of state intervention for those most in dire need

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

they are getting temp shelter or in over crowded living accom ect.Waiting to be housed.

constitutional right= your right to be housed by the state.
�� That the right to housing is “justiciable” i.e. where social policy or legislative measures fail - the right to housing should be specified in such a way as to be arbitrated, determined and enforced by the courts.
�� That the right to housing make real our international legal obligations
�� That the primary responsibility of the individual to meet their housing needs from their own resources is enshrined, ensuring the targeting of state intervention for those most in dire need

So they are housed. It may be temporary shelter, but it is housing. Living in rented accommodation counts as being housed, I'm afraid, even when the government is paying the rent.

That thing you posted is from the Simon Community, saying what they'd like to see in the constitution. It's not in the constitution.

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

So they are housed. It may be temporary shelter, but it is housing. Living in rented accommodation counts as being housed, I'm afraid, even when the government is paying the rent.

That thing you posted is from the Simon Community, saying what they'd like to see in the constitution. It's not in the constitution.

I know. Could not find the real one. But id say its similar enough.

However getting back to the point been additional accomadition will need to be provided for the demand that will grow and thats a certain fact I hope you agree.

And is supply really greater than the demand for a home or is it homes are in bigger supply than buyers and now is probably the best time to buy.

Snakeblood

Marcanthony wrote: »

I know. Could not find the real one. But id say its similar enough.

However getting back to the point been additional accomadition will need to be provided for the demand that will grow and thats a certain fact I hope you agree.

And is supply really greater than the demand for a home or is it homes are in bigger supply than buyers and now is probably the best time to buy.

You couldn't find the real one because it doesn't exist. That was an article from the Simon community saying it should be in the constitution. If it was in the Constitution, they wouldn't have bothered writing the article.

I don't agree demand will grow. It's certainly possible, but I don't know when. When emigration stops, immigration starts, the banks are no longer dependent on the EU, when we make money as a nation rather than siphon it off to repay debts incurred or taken on. I don't see that happening soon.

Your last sentence is drivel and you've pretty much ignored everything I've said, so cheers for wasting my time.

Marcanthony

Snakeblood wrote: »

You couldn't find the real one because it doesn't exist. That was an article from the Simon community saying it should be in the constitution. If it was in the Constitution, they wouldn't have bothered writing the article.

I don't agree demand will grow. It's certainly possible, but I don't know when. When emigration stops, immigration starts, the banks are no longer dependent on the EU, when we make money as a nation rather than siphon it off to repay debts incurred or taken on. I don't see that happening soon.

Your last sentence is drivel and you've pretty much ignored everything I've said, so cheers for wasting my time.

well maybe someone will be able to enlighten us on the constitutional rights to housing.I cant find it on the web.

You dont agree the population will grow. (Thers a baby boom at the moment.) Well I do. Demand for homes will grow in the future.

If you think thats nonsence. thats your opinion.

However my opinion is .... Property supply outbeats the number of buyers at present . But does not outbeat the demand for homes and with property prices at there current prices and a good percentage of a return on rental at them prices. I think now is the time to buy.The supply will eventually meet demand and property prices will increase again.However may take 20 years plus to get to the prices of the boom peak.

jackal

Will property be a good investment again? Possibly, but historically property keeps pace with inflation, effectively netting the investor nothing, but keeping their capital safe over a long period. Excluding the occasional bubble, unless you have an eye for a bargain and have the skills to upgrade a property and rent it out, you are not going to make money from property.

As for the argument about property in some places being cheaper to buy than build, this is true, but only in area's where the property should never have been built in the first place. Except for locals buying, nobody is ever going to buy these places and they are essentially worthless. However, in the major population centres, your "cheaper to buy than build" argument is completely wrong. Using edge cases in the back of beyond to suggest they have reached the bottom is your prerogative.

My advice is for you, personally to "buy buy buy" and put your money where your mouth is. Let us all know how it went for you in a couple of years please?

bobbysands81

Marcanthony wrote: »

With population an almost guarantee to increase over time and the big and increasing number of people on the housing list and the fact that been housed is a constitutional right .

On a point of clarification there is no "right to housing" in Ireland.

Marcanthony wrote: »

Housing list or no housing list. its a constitutional right for these people to be housed

No it's not.

Marcanthony wrote: »

well maybe someone will be able to enlighten us on the constitutional rights to housing.I cant find it on the web.

If you type in 'Irish Constitution online' you'll be brought to this document which is the Irish Constitution online. Amazing really.

http://www.constitution.ie/reports/ConstitutionofIreland.pdf

royaler83

Marcanthony wrote: »

well if you take the cost of living in the 70s and 80s against todays. I would say yes. Even with out the cost of living. i would still say yes. Tradesmen working for 60 euro a day at present. Just to get out of their house.

The point i am making in realtion to the build cost against the sale cost is.

This can not last forever and they are not going to give property away for zero or anywhere close.

the last point means.....people cant get credit at the moment playing a big factor in selling properties outside the cost of them

Please identify as an example what you think is a realistic price for a property against an area with the property size.

Rent will always play a factor in sale prices.As i stated people have to live some where. with or with out mortgage approval and buying a property now is still cheaper than renting in specific areas. Demand will always grow in the living in a home industry.

If tradesman are working for €60 a day then they will never get approved for a morgage, hence prices will naturally fall to a level that can be afforded. Your opening post is like something of the front page of an estate agent's catalogue!!

Off topic: Who have you got on the Saturday Night show this week :P

odds_on

Marcanthony wrote: »

My research been an engineer is that property on the market can be bought in the right area at a price equall or less than building the same house in that area and trying to sourse the land.

And thats at current rates with labour prices at an all time low and the fact that I do not think supply outbeats demand for a home, just that supply outbeats demand for a buyer.

But building sites for sale are, IMHO, well above the level of the over-priced housing market.

In general, sellers of sites are even slower to realize that there is a collapse in the building market than the majority of house sellers.

I believe that the house buying population is declining - Irish people emigrating and foreign workers returning to their home country, though many of the latter were in the rental sector.

Maybe in 5 or 10 years the market will pick up to some degree but never to the degree as in the height of the bubble except, possibly, for the next generation when the cycle will renew itself.

Marcanthony

bobbysands81 wrote: »

On a point of clarification there is no "right to housing" in Ireland.



No it's not.



If you type in 'Irish Constitution online' you'll be brought to this document which is the Irish Constitution online. Amazing really.

http://www.constitution.ie/reports/ConstitutionofIreland.pdf[/QUOTE]
_________________________________________________________________________________________

Apologies you are correct. However the point I am trying to get across is that SW will contribute towards the rent. I know thats not the same thing and again I apologise. However the fact is, there is procedures put in place to house people and the living in a home industry is not going to go out of fashion.You will always have demand for a home.

Marcanthony

royaler83 wrote: »

If tradesman are working for €60 a day then they will never get approved for a morgage, hence prices will naturally fall to a level that can be afforded. Your opening post is like something of the front page of an estate agent's catalogue!!

Off topic: Who have you got on the Saturday Night show this week :P

Exactly. tradesmen working for 60 euro a day and unemployed will never get approval. Which is a big factor in property not selling and cash investers getting a real bargain.However they still need to live in a home and that could be the home the investor bought at a knocked down price.Removing another property of the market.

Marcanthony

odds_on wrote: »

But building sites for sale are, IMHO, well above the level of the over-priced housing market.

In general, sellers of sites are even slower to realize that there is a collapse in the building market than the majority of house sellers.

I believe that the house buying population is declining - Irish people emigrating and foreign workers returning to their home country, though many of the latter were in the rental sector.

Maybe in 5 or 10 years the market will pick up to some degree but never to the degree as in the height of the bubble except, possibly, for the next generation when the cycle will renew itself.

Supply does out beat demand in the amount of properties. But the statistics for vacant units include properties in the back of beyonds and apartments in bad locations. Which will probably never sell. As they are a bad investment.
The difference in asking prices for properties in the same areas and similar that are for sale range in difference of 50-200k in the asking price.

Example 2 neighbours are selling similar properties

neighbour 1 asking price 200k
neighbour 2 asking price 300k

If property no. 1 sells and property no. 2 is still on the market for a considerable time later. The seller of property 2 is not realistically priced.However is probably over priced becausee there outstanding mortgage will not allow a sale for less.

This is a factor in why property is not selling also.

odds_on

Marcanthony wrote: »

Supply does out beat demand in the amount of properties. But the statistics for vacant units include properties in the back of beyonds and apartments in bad locations. Which will probably never sell. As they are a bad investment.
The difference in asking prices for properties in the same areas and similar that are for sale range in difference of 50-200k in the asking price.

Example 2 neighbours are selling similar properties

neighbour 1 asking price 200k
neighbour 2 asking price 300k

If property no. 1 sells and property no. 2 is still on the market for a considerable time later. The seller of property 2 is not realistically priced.However is probably over priced becausee there outstanding mortgage will not allow a sale for less.

This is a factor in why property is not selling also.

But sometimes it is more beneficial for house owners to sell for less than the mortgage to get rid of the millstone around their necks.

Marcanthony

odds_on wrote: »

But sometimes it is more beneficial for house owners to sell for less than the mortgage to get rid of the millstone around their necks.

Yes. But will there bank allow it or can they cover the differnce.if they cant, they will try sell to cover the outstanding loan.

BostonB

Marcanthony wrote: »

...Realistically priced properties are 60% lower in asking price now than at the peak of the boom.....Is now not the best time to buy ? ...

Not if it keeps falling, and if people can't get jobs, emigrate and can't get mortgages then it will. You've got to ask yourself how long with it take to you make back the 30~40k in after tax profit, if it does fall. A year, 4 years etc.

Also a lot of properties are in very poor condition, even new ones with the lax enforcement of building regulations. If they tighten up the enforcement of things like BER rating for rental accommodation, that might be another 10~30k to get a place back up to a standard that will rent.


Of course if your dream place comes up, you have to buy when its available not in a 2 years time when it might not be.

Marcanthony

BostonB wrote: »

Not if it keeps falling, and if people can't get jobs, emigrate and can't get mortgages then it will.

There are still over half a million 25-34 year-olds (Protential FTB) at work and approx fifty thousand unemployed and approx 300,000 vacant units .
I would assume the majority of these 25-34 year-olds are still living with parents or Renting rooms ect.

So Is The Supply to big or just Demand to low? Cosidering a lot of these vacant units can be classed as never will be sold. As they are bad invesments due to location ect.

gurramok

Marcanthony wrote: »

There are still over half a million 25-34 year-olds (Protential FTB) at work and approx fifty thousand unemployed and approx 300,000 vacant units .
I would assume the majority of these 25-34 year-olds are still living with parents or Renting rooms ect.

So Is The Supply to big or just Demand to low? Cosidering a lot of these vacant units can be classed as never will be sold. As they are bad invesments due to location ect.

How do you know these figures of "half a million 25-34 year-olds (Protential FTB) "

Where do you get the assumption of " I would assume the majority of these 25-34 year-olds are still living with parents or Renting rooms ect."

Sorry, but you have to be questioned to the source of your stats on this segment as potential FTB's(prudent ones for the banks) and their current living arrangements.

The_Honeybadger

Marcanthony wrote: »

There are still over half a million 25-34 year-olds (Protential FTB) at work and approx fifty thousand unemployed and approx 300,000 vacant units .
I would assume the majority of these 25-34 year-olds are still living with parents or Renting rooms ect.

So Is The Supply to big or just Demand to low? Cosidering a lot of these vacant units can be classed as never will be sold. As they are bad invesments due to location ect.

I'm one of these, I am in a rental in a rural area. Houses in my estate are still asking 180k, a rent multiple of € 550 p.m. (r.s. max) x 150 - 200 means the value of these units should be between € 82k to € 104k. Add to that that they are poorly finished with little insulation means that I would probably need to put in another 20k-30k to make it a long term liveable home. There are 130+ units for sale in the small town where I live, and believe me this is not an anomoly, many small towns are in the same situation. I firmly believe these sort of units will be available for 60k-90k in the next few years once sellers realise that no FTB fairy is going to rescue them from their bad investment. I am very lucky to be in good and reasonably secure employment and could probably get a mortgage if I looked around, but not at current prices. Obviosly I am talking about rural Ireland however, and the example above has no bearing in Dublin or Cork. Rural Ireland is awash with shyte properties thrown up by apprentices during the boom which have very little value, these place will cause major headaches for owners into the future and I for one will be keeping my money in my pocket for now. Of course the stupid Irish addiction to property will see alot of these rubbish units sold to FTB's when credit becomes available, good luck to them. And on demand vs supply, there is a good demand for decent rental properties at the moment, I was in the market for one a few months back and was appauled by the properties I viewed. All the good properties are already rented, and any that do come up are snapped up straight away. I actually lost a bidding war on one as I felt the price went too high and pulled out.

@ Marcanthony there is no reason that I can see why prices should even stabilise never mind recover, wages are being ground down over time and banks have no money. The only saving grace is that the x-factor / xpose watching FTB demographic who grew up with ballooning house prices are largely financially inept and may just be thick enough to pay over the odds.

BostonB

Marcanthony wrote: »

From census reports 2011.

They may not all be FTB or Living at home ect.

However this age group are the people who with with more finance available and more confidence . Would be active in the property market.

finance available from where?

BostonB

Marcanthony wrote: »

There are still over half a million 25-34 year-olds (Protential FTB) at work and approx fifty thousand unemployed and approx 300,000 vacant units .
I would assume the majority of these 25-34 year-olds are still living with parents or Renting rooms ect.

So Is The Supply to big or just Demand to low? Cosidering a lot of these vacant units can be classed as never will be sold. As they are bad invesments due to location ect.

Finance not available. Its not enough to be working, you need to able to have the right kind of job to get a mortgage.