Further Cold Spell In February? 0-180 Charts Only

pistolpetes11

blackius wrote: »

Meanwhile...
Back in this world..

The ecm ends europes freeze

Is that a completely strengthended Polar vortex in this chart ?

I thought it had gone past the point of no return this winter ??

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Is that a completely strengthended Polar vortex in this chart ?

I thought it had gone past the point of no return this winter ??

No, that happens in April.

blackius

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Just reading some posts from the NOAA and according to them the ECM 12Z run after 168 hours can head for the bin.

personally some of their comments can also head for the bin!
They aren't certain either.
Oh and they used the ecm 0z in their forecasts today because they weren't happy with the other nwp's.

Basically what this is all telling me is that nature is doing what it does best and that is behaving like normal.
We had the coldest of europes weather in december 2010 set up shop for a month over us.
It's simply not our turn this time.
Chaos theory sent it to mainland Europe for a while.

Normal service should soon resume.

darkman2

Hi guys,

We are on track for a much colder period of weather from the 17th coming from the Northwest and then the North. Impossible to say at this stage how long the cold weather will last. I think more it is more unlikely it will last more then 4 days. But very confident things are going to change and it will become less tedious in here.

Note the 12z UKMO, only going one way. High pressure backwest and the trough moving Southeast from Greenland similar to the GFS.



And here is the GFS for the same time(144hrs). Again the trough digging south



We are not looking at a strong high pressure linked to Greenland at this stage but the ingredients are there for a proper cold spell with heavy snow showers especially in the West and Northwest.

With the break in the Northern arm of the jet stream there won't be much pressure from the Atlantic to flatten this much colder pattern.




We have narrowly missed out up to now. The way things are looking it's about to change at last!

blackius

So we're down to hoping for A polar maritime northwesterly ?

Good lord ,if theres anything worse than mild rain,it's cold rain.


Better hope it's at least a northerly so Ulster/north connaught gets something out of it.

Meanwhile those of us on the east coast can get the binoculars out to spy the irish sea snow showers as they barrel into wales

Su Campu

It looks more like a glancing blow to me, with again the best of it missing us to the east. A brief period of wintry weather in the north, but Scotland, northeastern England and the North Sea seeing the heavy stuff. The GFS is the coldest, showing snow in the north for around a day, but the ECMWF only barely seeing 528 dam in the extreme north and not much chance of anything at low levels. That may be a more realistic outcome given the GFS' problems with cold outbreaks, but in any case it's pointless looking at detail at this early stage. Much better than of late though so yeah, we'll watch this one.

The overall pattern still looks like becoming more zonal in the longterm, with the NAO staying mostly positive for much of the rest of the month. Some brief flirts with cold, like this one, seem likely, but I still go with a seasonal mix of Atlantic frontal systems for the last decade of the month, with the cold staying tied up well to the north.

JanuarySnowstor

Thanks for your post SU, a voice of reason.
There is absolutely nothing cold showing in the reliable.

darkman2

Hi all,

Just a quick update from me.

Good, solid and consistent output this afternoon. A couple of things to watch. It's going to become alot colder then lately from the 17th with a return to night time frosts and sleet and snow showers in the North and West in particular. However also watch out for the possibility of a longer spell of snow at some stage between the 17th and the 22nd as atlantic shortwaves and associated fronts come up against the cold push from the North.

only one

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all,

Just a quick update from me.

Good, solid and consistent output this afternoon. A couple of things to watch. It's going to become alot colder then lately from the 17th with a return to night time frosts and sleet and snow showers in the North and West in particular. However also watch out for the possibility of a longer spell of snow at some stage between the 17th and the 22nd as atlantic shortwaves and associated fronts come up against the cold push from the North.

Nothing for the south east I guess?

Rebelbrowser

only one wrote: »

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all,

Just a quick update from me.

Good, solid and consistent output this afternoon. A couple of things to watch. It's going to become alot colder then lately from the 17th with a return to night time frosts and sleet and snow showers in the North and West in particular. However also watch out for the possibility of a longer spell of snow at some stage between the 17th and the 22nd as atlantic shortwaves and associated fronts come up against the cold push from the North.

Nothing for the south east I guess?

You might just wait to see if there's anything for any of us before worrying about imby issues!

davidsr20

only one wrote: »

Nothing for the south east I guess?

No it's our turn in the west bring it on

darkman2

Hi guys,

Quick thought.

Very interesting output today. Again from the 17th it looks alot colder from the Northwest with snow showers and frost. Also the possibility increasing that we are being setup for a snow event. UKMO and GFS really going that direction. Let's see how the ECM sees things playing out.

Sponge Bob

12z UKMO is close ...but so was the -16c in Eastern England the other day.



And then

blackius

Always a week away ain't it.
Not too excited usually about a northwesterly unless it's a polar northwesterly ie an airflow sourced at the pole that just veers a bit on route.Thats what this seems to be trying to be
That would have a huge sea fetch and if it's 850's ended up at around -10 or so then you are in business up in ulster, north and west connaught and west munster.

The rest of us will be watching the radar in the east see'ing the showers fade as they hit the midlands with the odd few getting through here and there.
Little for Dublin in it,nothing for wicklow,wexford waterford or east cork ie the bulk of the countries population.

West cork,kerry,up the west coast,ulster,north connaught would have the show.
Maybe north leinster.

I'll believe it when I see it.

This winter-always the bridesmaid,never the bride.
So something will tweak the wrong way no doubt.
As Larry might say,the highs aren't suiting us.

darkman2

Sponge Bob wrote: »

12z UKMO is close

Are you suggesting that's a bad chart?;) As a snapshot that's a certain snow event chart for the Southern half of the country at least with the polar front coming up against bitterly cold air over most of the country. That chart = snow event.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Are you suggesting that's a bad chart?;) As a snapshot that's a certain snow event chart for the Southern half of the country at least with the polar front coming up against bitterly cold air over most of the country. That chart = snow event.

You ARE kidding, right??!! :eek: Are you looking at a different chart?

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

You ARE kidding, right??!! :eek: Are you looking at a different chart?

Not at all. Are you looking at the right chart?

That chart is classic snow event territory for Ireland. Much of the country under polar air conditions, bitterly cold with fronts approaching from the west being forced on an easterly track by that area of high pressure just south of Greenland - forced undercut. There is only one outcome there especially for the southern half of the country. Northern third im guessing would be dry in that event but very cold. The polar airmass is not displaced over the country.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

Not at all. Are you looking at the right chart?

That chart is classic snow event territory for Ireland. Much of the country under polar air conditions, bitterly cold with fronts approaching from the west being forced on an easterly track by that area of high pressure just south of Greenland - forced undercut. There is only one outcome there especially for the southern half of the country. Northern third im guessing would be dry in that event but very cold. The polar airmass is not displaced over the country.

But it shows at best around 530 dam in the far north, and without a proper cold layer in place (say a few days of snow cover) then that's never going to produce anything.

I'm stumped to be honest darkman!

JanuarySnowstor

Have to agree with you SU
It looks a half effort of a Northerly.
Sums up how bad the Winter has been that a one day toppler gets a mention.
I'm growing ever so tired of the hopecasting when in all honesty a 24 hour toppler is the current likely option.
Of course things could upgrade yet for this wkd but the way the Winter has gone to date you wouldn't bet on it

cherryghost

Sleet showers at best tbh.

darkman2

This is a crude drawing so forgive me for that but this should be close enough to what that chart implies.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

But it shows at best around 530 dam in the far north, and without a proper cold layer in place (say a few days of snow cover) then that's never going to produce anything.

I'm stumped to be honest darkman!

With respect I really don't think you are reading the chart right. I am 100% certain without fear of contradiction that that is a probable frontal snow event for a good portion of the country. You obviously disagree. Fair enough. P.S it is 144hrs out so before anybody says "you told us it was going to snow on Monday" - no, I did not. I am simply making a point about a certain synoptic chart that may or may not be close to reality on the day.

K_1

Would have to agree with Su here, the chart doesn't show a proper battleground at all.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

With respect I really don't think you are reading the chart right. I am 100% certain without fear of contradiction that that is a probable front snow event for a good portion of the country. You obviously disagree. Fair enough. P.S it is 144hrs out so before anybody says "you told us it was going to snow on Monday" - no, I did not. I am simply making a point about a certain synoptic chart that may or may not be close to reality on the day.

I'm not having a go. I just totally disagree that it is a snow event. You seem certain that it is. I really am stumped as to how you come to that conclusion. The drawing doesn't really explain it to be honest. There won't be a bitterly cold airmass in place to begin with, and thicknesses range from a bare 530 dam in the north to around 538-540 in the south. How in the world will that produce a classic snow event?

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

I'm not having a go. I just totally disagree that it is a snow event. You seem certain that it is. I really am stumped as to how you come to that conclusion. The drawing doesn't really explain it to be honest. There won't be a bitterly cold airmass in place to begin with, and thicknesses range from a bare 530 dam in the north to around 538-540 in the south. How in the world will that produce a classic snow event?

There won't be a bitterly cold airmass over the country? How do you figure that? The airmass in not displaced on that chart. 100% certain of that even though we don't have the temperature profile for the UKMO at that range.

Sub 528 dam roughly across the Northern half of the country. But the fronts are coming against the polar airmass. I cannot understand how you can fail to see the potential there. The warm front is clearly coming up against a polar airmass. Not only that but it's going to come back in behind as the shortwave tracks east aswell. I have not got time to go into great detail atm. I don't think you are interpreting it properly is all I will say. You are entitled to your point, and I respect your opinion - I don't agree with it all.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

There won't be a bitterly cold airmass over the country? How do you figure that? The airmass in not displaced on that chart. 100% certain of that even though we don't have the temperature profile for the UKMO at that range.

Sub 528 dam roughly across the Northern half of the country. But the fronts are coming against the polar airmass. I cannot understand how you can fail to see the potential there. The warm front is clearly coming up against a polar airmass. Not only that but it's going to come back in behind as the shortwave tracks east aswell. I have not got time to go into great detail atm. I don't think you are interpreting it properly is all I will say. You are entitled to your point, and I respect your opinion - I don't agree with it all.

Ditto!!!

I have calculated and inserted the 528 and 540 dam lines on the chart below. The 528 barely straddles the north coast. The airmass will be cool but not overly so, and I just don't see a boundary layer cold enough to overcome those heights.

ZX7R

I was reading some of the other charts around the same time as darkmans chart on sioman kelling web page ,they are deffently showing a polar air flow for that time frame....maby he is on to something [i am unable to put up the other charts dont know how:( my brother will show me at weekend]

ninebeanrows

18z shows close to a snow day. Lots of snow for north Ulster

ninebeanrows

ZX7R wrote: »

I was reading some of the other charts around the same time as darkmans chart on sioman kelling web page ,they are deffently showing a polar air flow for that time frame....maby he is on to something [i am unable to put up the other charts dont know how:( my brother will show me at weekend]

DM2 is definitely on to something.

The UKM is very interesting, and the LP would likely give snow on its northern edge as its moves east, but we can't see the frame.

Thickness levels don't need to be very low in these types of situations for snowfall to occur.

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

DM2 is definitely on to something.

The UKM is very interesting, and the LP would likely give snow on its northern edge as its moves east, but we can't see the frame.

Thickness levels don't need to be very low in these types of situations for snowfall to occur.

If a chart like the one I posted above produces a "Classic snow event" - or any snow for that matter, then I will eat my hat!

Seriously guys, has the place gone mad from the lack of snow???!!!