My Portfolio

liammur

turbobaby wrote: »

Very costly duster for Borders and Southern. Punt failure!

Not good at all.

Unlucky with BOR, but at least it wasn't your main holding. Hopefully the bigger ones will come good for you.

Grecco

turbobaby wrote: »

:eek:
That portfolio is purging money, you need a massive recovery on exploration stocks to get back on track but with the way the markets are risk adverse at the moment you could be in for a wait

turbobaby

You said it!

Since starting the thread my oil explorers have failed to find any commercial oil.

1. HRT hit a number of gas only wells in Brazil.
2. CHAR hit a duster off North Namibia.
3. BOR abandoned their drill without finding oil and running into serious difficulty off South Falklands
4. SDR (sold for good) found miserable amounts of silver in their latest drill campaign
5. HER (sold) failed to discover a high grade vein at Guamanga (major long shot!)
6. PCI (sold) ran into delay after delay with government approval of their plan to commercialize gas in Algeria.
7. CMB will not receive the decision regarding their mill permit now until September (originally March).
8. MBG suffering from their main asset being in Argentina, but at least they reported some more good grade gold drill results.

However (!), my portfolio is heavily dependent on drill results from Central and South Namibia. Also HRT have yet to drill in the more oil prone East Solimoes.

Things can change very quickly in this business!

As it stands however I am following the path of Ernest Hemingway who said "I went bankrupt slowly and then suddenly".

Pa Dee

turbobaby wrote: »

You said it!

Since starting the thread my oil explorers have failed to find any commercial oil.

1. HRT hit a number of gas only wells in Brazil.
2. CHAR hit a duster off North Namibia.
3. BOR abandoned their drill without finding oil and running into serious difficulty off South Falklands
4. SDR (sold for good) found miserable amounts of silver in their latest drill campaign
5. HER (sold) failed to discover a high grade vein at Guamanga (major long shot!)
6. PCI (sold) ran into delay after delay with government approval of their plan to commercialize gas in Algeria.
7. CMB will not receive the decision regarding their mill permit now until September (originally March).
8. MBG suffering from their main asset being in Argentina, but at least they reported some more good grade gold drill results.

However (!), my portfolio is heavily dependent on drill results from Central and South Namibia. Also HRT have yet to drill in the more oil prone East Solimoes.

Things can change very quickly in this business!

As it stands however I am following the path of Ernest Hemingway who said "I went bankrupt slowly and then suddenly".

Your actual positions are only 10% though of what you have on that screen shot?

turbobaby

Pa Dee wrote: »

Your actual positions are only 10% though of what you have on that screen shot?

The shares I no longer hold are not listed in the portfolio but the losses are included in the profit and loss figure.

To give Grecco an idea of the volatility of my stocks take a look at the 52 week lows, highs, fall from high to low and my loss.


HRT $1.36 $9.90 -86% -49%
CHAR £0.67 £2.08 -67% -2%
BOR £0.16 £1.39 -88% -73%
CMB $0.10 $0.38 -73% -13%
MBG $0.08 $0.50 -84% -53%

Pa Dee

turbobaby wrote: »

Pa Dee wrote: »

Your actual positions are only 10% though of what you have on that screen shot?

The shares I no longer hold are not listed in the portfolio but the losses are included in the profit and loss figure.

To give Grecco an idea of the volatility of my stocks take a look at the 52 week lows, highs, fall from high to low and my loss.


HRT $1.36 $9.90 -86% -49%
CHAR £0.67 £2.08 -67% -2%
BOR £0.16 £1.39 -88% -73%
CMB $0.10 $0.38 -73% -13%
MBG $0.08 $0.50 -84% -53%

What I mean is you are in for 5k rather than 50k ?

turbobaby

I didn't want to say how much my portfolio actually is. It could be €5k, it could be €5m !

turbobaby

Going against exactly what I said only a few posts up and despite the fact I will lose any credibilty that I have left, I will post my latest 'trades'.

Temporarily sold out of CHAR for a quick punt on RMP and added a few more BOR.

If that doesn't work out I will have to seriously consider closing this thread, or moving it to the gambling forum!

zielarz

Keep the updates coming.. shorting the stocks you're buying has been a great strategy so far..

turbobaby

I'll have to take that bit of abuse on the chin I suppose as you're absolutely right.

.... open up a short position on HRT, go on, I dare you!

Grecco

turbobaby wrote: »

.... open up a short position on HRT, go on, I dare you!

Turbobaby I wouldn't be comfortable buying hrt at the current price, the cost of the risk is too high at present compared to other stocks. I think about $0.85c would be the price target to buy at but it may not get that low but who knows with the way the markets are at the moment

turbobaby

Well this is turning out to be a real car crash so I may as well keep track, even if it is for entertainment purposes only.

I feel like a desperate heavyweight boxer coming up to the final few rounds. With my eyes swollen and barely able to see anything, I am swinging at shadows hoping to land a knockout blow. None have connected with my opponent yet, and each time I swing I get even more tired. Time is running out!

This morning I sold out my whole position in BOR at 19.4p so that I could add more to RMP at 11.25p, bringing my average price there to 16.5p, which I am actually quite happy with.

RMP is not on Zignals.com so I am saved the visual heartache of seeing the current loss levels!

At least it is nice to see CHAR and BOR down below the price I sold at.

Thargor

Why RMP and not HRN if you're going to really risk it like that?

turbobaby

Currency commissions from TD.

...but surely Georgia is basically written off to zero so RMP must be almost as close to a 100% Puntland punt, like HRN.

The similar price drops today would suggest so too.

The Pontiac

turbobaby wrote: »

Currency commissions from TD.

...but surely Georgia is basically written off to zero so RMP must be almost as close to a 100% Puntland punt, like HRN.

The similar price drops today would suggest so too.

Turbo,

RMP have a market cap today of £30m ($47m). HRN have a market cap of $80m.

HRN have a 60% working interest in Puntland, RMP have only 20%. So HRN is much better value (if correctly writing-off Georgia).

Not sure if RMP have off-shore interests in Puntland though? (If that is worth much at all)

turbobaby

Ollie, have you factored in cash levels?

neil.p.b

When working out ratios between RMP and HRN it would be foolish not to take into account the HRN warrants - because at the end of all this either they are going to get triggered or both RMP and HRN are going to be worthless.

Considering % stake in Puntland (for both benefits and costs), fully diluted shares in issue, cash in bank (including HRNs warrant cash if working on a fully diluted basis) and exchange rate, multiplying RMPs share price by just over 8 (8.3ish) should get HRNs share price. There's a slight arbitrage opportunity at the moment with RMP being slightly overvalued but it's pretty insignificant and i'd just associate the small difference to the markets value of Georgia.

turbobaby

Neil, thanks for that. I had thought of the warrants just after posting my cash comment!

Arbitrage opportunities like that are rarely available, although I should not have bought RMP on that assumption alone.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks for both HRN and RMP. Currently out of CHAR, which I'm not too pleased about!

You did well with your GKP sell. You seem to really know what you're doing...

turbobaby

Well it is time for another update. I have been messing around way too much with my holdings since day one, and now my portfolio is down significantly as I have panicked and gone from one duster to another. My portfolio is even more riskier now than it was on day one.

As Zignals still have not yet updated their site to include RMP I cant put up a screenshot, but in short it is now as follows:

HRT, RMP, CMB and physical silver.

My average price on RMP is now 14.5p (47k shares) as I sold my Malbex shares to pick up some more.

I remain very confident that RMP have oil, despite the market thinking they do not.

HRT hit a new all time low this week as credibility hit rock bottom. HRT 8 results are way late, and likely to only find gas anyway. JPM came in with a large order on the bid side at 5 BRL so maybe we have hit the bottom there.

Char spudded their well on Friday so by the end of this year it will become very clear if Namibia and the Solimoes have oil basins or not.

turbobaby

Another week ends and still no change of direction for my battered portfolio.

RMP has been incredibly volatile since I bought in and it has been a real ride this last two weeks. The volumes for the Puntland joint venture partners dried up at the end of this week in anticipation of what is expected to be a massive 15 days for the companies and the people of Somalia.

I bought in because of the political progress and the 70% CoS of 12-20m net pay in S1, which was found in the secondary target zone of the less prospective well. If Horn's 70% belief that this will flow oil rings true, and more oil is found in SN (the better prospect) the share price will open up multiples of where it is now, 9.5p. No oil in SN still leaves S1 and then further drills, so I am still delighted with my 14.5p average price.

HRT released drill no. 8 results and as expected found more gas, but no oil. The markets had no reaction whatsoever and the share continued its miserable fall below 5 BRL. (now 4.85)

The fact of the matter remains that they have yet to drill any of the D&M certified prospects, and at this point are trading just about at cash levels. September will see the results of Nimrod. That will be a huge day for the Namibian oilers and the people of Namibia.

I was in contact with the President of CMC Metals this week to voice my support for their slow but steady progress on the Bishop's Mill. Since buying in at 16c, I have very good feelings about this company. It's 13c right now, but again will multi bag once they get the mill permit, which I believe is as close to a foregone conclusion as you can get!

Still no database update from Zignals.com which is frustrating but it saves me the embarassment of putting up a screenshot. Currently down about 50%, i.e. €25,000 :eek:

The dangers of investing in explorers!

hmmm

I have been messing around way too much with my holdings since day one, and now my portfolio is down significantly as I have panicked and gone from one duster to another. My portfolio is even more riskier now than it was on day one.

I was in contact with the President of CMC Metals this week to voice my support for their slow but steady progress

I remain very confident that RMP have oil, despite the market thinking they do not.

No disrespect, but the above seems more like emotion than analysis. Is this a sensible state of mind to be in when investing? What are you doing ringing the President of a company to offer moral support - he works for you, if he delivers well and good, if not you'll be moving on.

Also, what makes you think that you are correct about the prospects, yet the entire market is wrong?

This strikes me as gambling, not investing. Investors have made 10-20% since Jan 1 as the markets have risen.

grange mac

Turbobaby....turbobaby. What hav you beeing doing, i think you need to relax a small bit and not react to all the info you are getting. Now i cant talk got roasted buying boi,mcinerney bought a house in 05...but now hav good posns on crh,skg,ryanair and air lingus....i hav learned to buy on v.weakness and hold...but still learning and i still believe in nothing ventured nothing gained.
Happy trading!!

turbobaby

hmmm wrote: »

No disrespect, but the above seems more like emotion than analysis. Is this a sensible state of mind to be in when investing? What are you doing ringing the President of a company to offer moral support - he works for you, if he delivers well and good, if not you'll be moving on.

Also, what makes you think that you are correct about the prospects, yet the entire market is wrong?

This strikes me as gambling, not investing. Investors have made 10-20% since Jan 1 as the markets have risen.

I have done my analysis of RMP and concluded that there will be oil found. I have spoken to Somalis about the political process, I have been in touch with an oil expert in Yemen and I have read the RNS which states 12-20m of significant hydrocarbons have been found, with more drilling to go.

The top men of each of the joint ventures have bought in since the end of the first drill, although Keith Hill bought in via Africa Oil Corp.

I have done my research, but haven't been arsed posting it here because my results to date have been embarrassing.

I was in touch with CMC to build a relationship with the President, it doesn't take very long and it's nice to get a feel for how he thinks things are progressing.

The market gets it wrong all the time! Sure they were buying RMP all the way up to 50p. They were wrong then and can be wrong now. Selling out at a loss pre TD based on gut feeling is not the way to do it.

Absolutely, this is not investing, it's speculating. I have said that countless times already. If it was gambling, the money would be gone by now as it is more black and white.

liammur

turbobaby wrote: »

I have done my analysis of RMP and concluded that there will be oil found. I have spoken to Somalis about the political process, I have been in touch with an oil expert in Yemen and I have read the RNS which states 12-20m of significant hydrocarbons have been found, with more drilling to go.

The top men of each of the joint ventures have bought in since the end of the first drill, although Keith Hill bought in via Africa Oil Corp.

I have done my research, but haven't been arsed posting it here because my results to date have been embarrassing.

I was in touch with CMC to build a relationship with the President, it doesn't take very long and it's nice to get a feel for how he thinks things are progressing.

The market gets it wrong all the time! Sure they were buying RMP all the way up to 50p. They were wrong then and can be wrong now. Selling out at a loss pre TD based on gut feeling is not the way to do it.

Absolutely, this is not investing, it's speculating. I have said that countless times already. If it was gambling, the money would be gone by now as it is more black and white.

Hold in there, all of us have had tough times if the truth be known. My only advice is to anyone and everyone is to use stop losses. 1 of my portfolios is literally wiped out because of failure to use them.

turbobaby

Brief update to say I am still in HRT, RMP, CMB and physical silver.

Losses over 50% at this stage.

No panic!

collymcd

They found more gas in Brazil today. That's 5(?) wells with gas now I think. They've got to get a move on monetizing this stuff. Gas prices are quite high in Brazil which should help too. I've heard talk of possibly using pipelines that Petrobras already have in place. Do you know anything about these lines and the likelihood of striking a deal?

turbobaby

Colly, we will have to wait until the end of the year before we find out the best options for monetizing.

I know that Marcio Mello has a good relationship with the new CEO of Petrobras, and I know that Brazil is reliant on gas imports from Bolivia, so there may be political pressure to get this gas to market. There's plenty of options, such as for fertilizer, so it's just a case of wait and see.

RMP has been halted pending news on Shabeel North. Sweaty bumcrack time!

liammur

turbobaby wrote: »

Colly, we will have to wait until the end of the year before we find out the best options for monetizing.

I know that Marcio Mello has a good relationship with the new CEO of Petrobras, and I know that Brazil is reliant on gas imports from Bolivia, so there may be political pressure to get this gas to market. There's plenty of options, such as for fertilizer, so it's just a case of wait and see.

RMP has been halted pending news on Shabeel North. Sweaty bumcrack time!

Must say this doesn't look good, hope it goes your way though.

turbobaby

Cheers Liam, but one thing I have learned in my brief speculating career is that you cannot second guess things on AIM. I'm waiting for the RNS!

liammur

turbobaby wrote: »

Cheers Liam, but one thing I have learned in my brief speculating career is that you cannot second guess things on AIM. I'm waiting for the RNS!

I think there will be an update on it tomorrow am.

turbobaby

Liam, another thing I have learned is not to listen to anything a company's broker says.

On this occasion when they said an overnight update is expected they were talking sh1te once again!

liammur

They are usually right on the negative side, but I agree you have to do your research.

AP_MAN

do you still hold BOR?

turbobaby wrote: »

Going against exactly what I said only a few posts up and despite the fact I will lose any credibilty that I have left, I will post my latest 'trades'.

Temporarily sold out of CHAR for a quick punt on RMP and added a few more BOR.

If that doesn't work out I will have to seriously consider closing this thread, or moving it to the gambling forum!

turbobaby

Don't hold BOR anymore. It was a failed punt, just like all the others!

Sold out of RMP this morning at 5.22p

I have a bid in for another high risk play, which will no doubt end in more misery!

Thargor

Problem is at the minute even if those high risk plays come in you just dont seem to see the rewards for it, at least nowhere near equal to the devestation when they dont go well, it just doesnt seem to be worth investing in explorers at the current time, thats why I only really feel comfortable buying GKP or hoarding cash these days.

kerosene

Might be worth having a look at minco. Can be got for just 2p at the moment, have cash in the bank, big announcement expected from canada end of next month and another rns in the next week or so. Cant really go any lower, have 10m stg to finance their own projects, might be worth your while having a look.

turbobaby

Kero, I would rather just have exposure to the very promising looking XAG by owning it directly rather than through Minco to be honest, but if you know of an interesting RNS that might be on the way, I'm all ears!

delad

Thargor wrote: »

Problem is at the minute even if those high risk plays come in you just dont seem to see the rewards for it, at least nowhere near equal to the devestation when they dont go well, it just doesnt seem to be worth investing in explorers at the current time, thats why I only really feel comfortable buying GKP or hoarding cash these days.

Investing in an oil exploration company is like investing in a pyramid scheme, its all about getting in, waiting for the sp to rise 20% on pure speculation, then selling the shares to someone dumber than yourself. If you wait for actual news you will get burned.

turbobaby

Except if the drill is successful of course!

Pa Dee

turbobaby wrote: »

Except if the drill is successful of course!

There was plenty of advice along the way telling you to cash in. It was all or nothing for you as you claimed you hadn't the skill to take profits. Jesus wept....

turbobaby

Yes, it was almost a case of all or nothing. I've been speculating on firms that have been hitting dusters like moths to a flame, but my 'bravery' will stand to me when I eventually do stay the course for an oil strike.

I'm happy to take a beating until the big pay day comes, if I can survive that long!

turbobaby

The latest and soon to be failure added to my portfolio is Oxus Gold!

No need to offer any insight as my credibility is obviously at 52 week lows.

96k shares bought at 2.4p

HRT is recovering nicely, silver moving up and CMC Metals also inching up.

Portfolio down just over 60% :eek:

turbobaby

Used up the last bit of cash remaining in my account to buy 7000 shares of CMC Metals at 14c ($1000).

Holding HRT, CMC, OXS and Silver.

liammur

turbobaby wrote: »

Used up the last bit of cash remaining in my account to buy 7000 shares of CMC Metals at 14c ($1000).

Holding HRT, CMC, OXS and Silver.

Well at least 1 mistake you didn't make was using leverage. Maybe you should just forget about your portfolio for a while and take some pressure off yourself and who knows, it may be well up in the interim.

Pa Dee

Would recommend selling everything and put it on black. If you win you are practically evens. If you lose you will save yourself the time you will sink in the next six months to achieve the same result.

A Primal Nut

Out of curiosity is there shares that were in your portfolio and you sold which have since come good and you get regret selling?

Smcgie

Pa Dee wrote: »

Would recommend selling everything and put it on black. If you win you are practically evens. If you lose you will save yourself the time you will sink in the next six months to achieve the same result.

You seem to forget that you're in the I&M forum. Your patronising attitude is not welcome here. Telling people they are gamblers/losers for investing in certain stock is your personal opinion.

An opinion you should go away with & shove up your arse

S.

turbobaby

liammur wrote: »

Well at least 1 mistake you didn't make was using leverage. Maybe you should just forget about your portfolio for a while and take some pressure off yourself and who knows, it may be well up in the interim.

Indeed. My shares are high risk enough without adding leverage. I would be long gone if leverage had been employed.

Pa Dee wrote:

Would recommend selling everything and put it on black. If you win you are practically evens. If you lose you will save yourself the time you will sink in the next six months to achieve the same result.

I recommend you go for a career change into comedy.

A Primal Nut wrote:

Out of curiosity is there shares that were in your portfolio and you sold which have since come good and you get regret selling?

Not to any major extent, so I would still like to get back into all of them. That's obviously depending on the performance of HRT, CMC and OXS!

Have gone about this whole speculating pretty badly to be honest. Jumping from one share to another trying to find a big oil discovery. I had a pretty bad sports injury which made my evenings completely free so I had too much time to be thinking about different shares, rather than just leaving things be.

grover_green

turbobaby wrote: »

Used up the last bit of cash remaining in my account to buy 7000 shares of CMC Metals at 14c ($1000).

Holding HRT, CMC, OXS and Silver.

seeing as throwing caution to the wind appears to be your middle name , ive a penny stock tip for you ( PGD ) patagonia gold , trades on the LSE , a junior miner , i put 5 k on it at 20 p a month ago and gained 35% in two weeks , at which point i sold , held the capital and reinvested the profits , was watching it for a while and felt it had bottomed and was due a lift with the PM market , dropped a bit last week but bounced back friday on news from bernanke

grover_green

turbobaby wrote: »

Indeed. My shares are high risk enough without adding leverage. I would be long gone if leverage had been employed.



I recommend you go for a career change into comedy.



Not to any major extent, so I would still like to get back into all of them. That's obviously depending on the performance of HRT, CMC and OXS!

Have gone about this whole speculating pretty badly to be honest. Jumping from one share to another trying to find a big oil discovery. I had a pretty bad sports injury which made my evenings completely free so I had too much time to be thinking about different shares, rather than just leaving things be.

sounds like you,ve been chasing losses , i think its best to only invest in long shots with no more than 10% of your portfolio at the very most

if you,ve had your fill of adrenaline , why not simply buy a broad market etf and leave it there for years, long shot winners taste good but you cannot continue like that indefinatley