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United Ireland - NATO?

  • 05-02-2012 6:57pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 927 ✭✭✭


    So with talks of a united Ireland referendum in 2016 do you think if it became a reality then Ireland would join Nato?

    Why/why not?


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,195 ✭✭✭goldie fish


    A bit political for military perhaps? Military do what the government tell them to.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 195 ✭✭00MARTZ00


    So with talks of a united Ireland referendum in 2016...

    Jaysus i havnt heard of this, is it true?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,518 ✭✭✭OS119


    ..Why/why not?

    i disagree with your premise - the only people talking about a referendum are the shinners, and they have nothing like the political clout to bring it about.

    however, were there to be a UI at some stage, its unlikely that NATO would be keen on having this new country join until all the wrinkles had been worked out and all was settled down. NATO does not want to have a civil war on its hands.

    bear in mind that Ireland only brings one thing to the NATO table - geography. however, that geography is not as valuable as it once was, Iceland is far more valuable, and the advent of long endurance maritime UCAV's, as well as air-to-air refeulling, mean that western Scotland, Cornwall, Brittany and the Azores are just as usefull as Shannon, without any of the political baggage.


  • Site Banned Posts: 317 ✭✭Turbine


    00MARTZ00 wrote: »
    Jaysus i havnt heard of this, is it true?

    http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-would-you-like-to-see-a-referendum-on-a-united-ireland-341964-Jan2012/
    OS119 wrote: »
    the only people talking about a referendum are the shinners, and they have nothing like the political clout to bring it about.

    Sinn Féin don't have to bring it about, its entirely up to the NI Secretary of State to call one, and they have to be convinced that there is popular support for a United Ireland. Any talk of a referendum being held in the South is irrelevant because the result would be a foregone conclusion, especially if it was held after a referendum in the North.


  • Registered Users Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Maoltuile


    OS119 wrote: »
    bear in mind that Ireland only brings one thing to the NATO table - geography.

    And the ability to drink the Russkies under the table. Psychological warfare, people.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭marketty


    Turbine wrote: »
    Any talk of a referendum being held in the South is irrelevant because the result would be a foregone conclusion, especially if it was held after a referendum in the North.

    how so?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,034 ✭✭✭✭It wasn't me!


    Maoltuile wrote: »
    And the ability to drink the Russkies under the table. Psychological warfare, people.

    Not if our lives depended on it! We'd have a better chance of successfully marching on Moscow wearing flippers and lifejackets, armed with water pistols.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭xflyer


    There'll be no referendum, no united Ireland and no NATO.

    There's a certain assumption that all Catholics will vote for a united Ireland. That's unlikely. A significant proportion would vote to maintain the status quo. That would be enough to swing it. A united Ireland is a long way away. There isn't even a certainty that the 26 counties would vote in favour given our partitionist mentality. A lot of people here wishes the North would 'go away'.

    NATO is non runner too, not as long as politicians and people here maintain the neutrality fantasy and are not prepared to fund a properly equipped and trained military.

    I assume all this comes up thanks to the Scottish independance debate. That's not going to happen either.


  • Site Banned Posts: 317 ✭✭Turbine


    marketty wrote: »
    how so?

    Even though theres more people against a UI now than there was, a large majority still support it. The downturn will have had little effect on most peoples desire to see it happen, if it did then the entire notion of a UI would've been thrown out the window in the 80s but it wasn't.

    Put it this way, if you knew rejoining the UK would mean more jobs, better wages and a reduction in our national debt, would you support it? The vast majority wouldn't because they want their freedom and independence ahead of any economic benefits.
    xflyer wrote: »
    There'll be no referendum, no united Ireland and no NATO.

    There's a certain assumption that all Catholics will vote for a united Ireland. That's unlikely. A significant proportion would vote to maintain the status quo. That would be enough to swing it. A united Ireland is a long way away. There isn't even a certainty that the 26 counties would vote in favour given our partitionist mentality. A lot of people here wishes the North would 'go away'.

    Catholics will be in the majority in the next few years though. This can be seen in the amount of Catholic students in colleges in the North, and the amount of Catholic children in schools in the North. The DUP First Minister has also recently acknowledged for the first time that the future of the North will be decided by Catholics. So I think you'd be a fool to rule it out, but like you say if and when it does happen its at least a decade away.
    xflyer wrote: »
    I assume all this comes up thanks to the Scottish independance debate. That's not going to happen either.

    I wouldn't say that, polls are now showing a majority (50+1) in support of it for the first time. If it does happen, then it will raise serious questions over the future of the North for Unionists as their connection to Britain is with Scotland. Just as support for a United Ireland increased significantly after devolution failed in 2002, the same will happen again if and when Scotland leaves the UK, which I'm guessing is why Sinn Féin see it as a good opportunity to hold a referendum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭marketty


    Well there's no real way of knowing without a referendum but I think you might be surprised to learn a lot of people in the south couldn't care less about the north. It's sad but true. In fact a lot of them would be strongly against it, because if you take the ideology of a 'united Ireland' out of the equation and look at the hard figures the north is an economic black hole even worse than our own. And referendum or not there would be huge resistance from the loyalist paramilitaries, and with the current governments attitude to the defence forces we would have a very difficult time dealing with that with less than 10000 troops, not to mention the Garda overtime bill....


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 2,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Morpheus


    Turbine wrote: »
    Even though theres more people against a UI now than there was, a large majority still support it.

    Funny that you have this opinion... I'm old enough to remember that a majority voted to remove our constitutional territorial claim to the 6 counties only a few years ago... :confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    What exactly would we gain by joining NATO?


  • Site Banned Posts: 317 ✭✭Turbine


    Morphéus wrote: »
    Funny that you have this opinion... I'm old enough to remember that a majority voted to remove our constitutional territorial claim to the 6 counties only a few years ago... :confused:

    Since when was that considered a referendum on a United Ireland? The Republic removing its claim over the 6 counties was a precondition of the Good Friday Agreement, and a red line issue for both Unionists and the British government. Had we voted it down, it would've scuppered any chance of a peace process. But to take the 94% YES result from that referendum and suggest that 94% are against a United Ireland is nonsense.
    marketty wrote: »
    Well there's no real way of knowing without a referendum but I think you might be surprised to learn a lot of people in the south couldn't care less about the north. It's sad but true. In fact a lot of them would be strongly against it, because if you take the ideology of a 'united Ireland' out of the equation and look at the hard figures the north is an economic black hole even worse than our own. And referendum or not there would be huge resistance from the loyalist paramilitaries, and with the current governments attitude to the defence forces we would have a very difficult time dealing with that with less than 10000 troops, not to mention the Garda overtime bill....

    Whatever about the cost of maintaining the public sector in the North (that deserves its own topic), I think the loyalist resistance to a United Ireland is overstated. There was a poll taken sometime last year which showed the vast majority of Unionists would accept a United Ireland if a majority voted for it. So straight away, loyalist paramilitaries wouldn't have the wide support of the Unionist community that the IRA got from the Nationalist community at the height of the troubles. And even at the height of the troubles, loyalist paramilitaries were in no position to stage any kind of offensive against the Republic, even considering the collusion that went on between them and the Brits. In any case, a United Ireland will only come about by democratic means, and given that, it shouldn't matter what loyalists threaten to do, if a majority want a United Ireland then it should happen. Just as it shouldn't matter now what the Real IRA threaten to do when a majority want to stay in the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭xflyer


    Yes indeed the Catholics will be in the majority soon enough but despite the cliche: Catholic = Nationalist/Republican and Protestant = Unionist/Loyalist was never true even in the country as a whole before partition particularly for Catholics.

    In fact if anything there is a new shared Northern Irish identity which has elements of both British and Irish. One thing Sinn Fein complained about during the Presidential elections was that the attitude down South as in 'Eff off back to your own country'. Which proves this new NI identity isn't just a Northern phenomenon.

    Thus any premature referendum will end any hopes of a united Ireland because sufficient Catholics particularly the middle class and those who depend on the public service jobs will vote against it. Which is a pity really as I personally this would be a great little country with the greater input of the Northeners.

    The irony of this should not be lost on the Unionists. Their behaviour precipitated the troubles by alienating Catholics. When all they had to do was treat them like equals.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭tac foley


    Nobody here seems to have given any consideration to a united and totally INDEPENDENT Ireland - outside the UK, the way that the Scots seem to be heading.

    Any thought on that one?

    tac


  • Site Banned Posts: 317 ✭✭Turbine


    xflyer wrote: »
    but despite the cliche: Catholic = Nationalist/Republican and Protestant = Unionist/Loyalist was never true even in the country as a whole before partition particularly for Catholics.

    I never said that, but lets be pragmatic, the vast majority of Catholics are Nationalists and the vast majority of Protestants are Unionists. The very fact that the leader of the DUP has acknowledged that Catholics will decide the future of the North just proves this. He knows he'll have to do what the UUP couldn't, and accomodate Catholics views and bring them around to supporting the status quo. But as long as the Orange Order are dictating Unionist party policies, that'll never happen.
    xflyer wrote: »
    In fact if anything there is a new shared Northern Irish identity which has elements of both British and Irish.

    I hate quoting the Life & Times Survey, but if you look at the most recent one its mainly Protestants that identify as 'Northern Irish', while the vast majority of Catholics identify as 'Irish'.
    xflyer wrote: »
    One thing Sinn Fein complained about during the Presidential elections was that the attitude down South as in 'Eff off back to your own country'. Which proves this new NI identity isn't just a Northern phenomenon.

    To be fair, when that blonde woman proclaimed herself a proud partitionist on the Frontline debate, she got a lot of abuse for her remarks on several forums and blogs and got no applause from the audience either. I don't think this shared 'Northern Irish' identity is as evident as you think though, but we can all spin these kind of things whatever we want. I'd personally see the Republic as having more and more influence on the North, particularly in areas like sport and the economy. And the fact that TDs are calling for people in the North to have a say in the constitutional forum this year also proves that not everyone sees the North as 'foreign'.
    tac foley wrote: »
    Nobody here seems to have given any consideration to a united and totally INDEPENDENT Ireland - outside the UK, the way that the Scots seem to be heading.

    Any thought on that one?

    Well given that (most of) Ireland is already totally independent from the UK, I thought that's what we were talking about?:confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭tac foley


    Turbine wrote: »
    Well given that (most of) Ireland is already totally independent from the UK, I thought that's what we were talking about?:confused:

    I'm sorry to play a blinder here, and I hope I'll be forgiven, but it is not plainly obvious to me whether the suggestion is that Northern Ireland joins the South and gives up all connection with the United Kingdom, and effectively becomes 'fully' Irish and not British, or that the present Republic of Ireland joins the North.

    I have to say that if you are thinking of the first scenario then it is my opinion, talking about it to my neighbours [from Enniskillen and Armagh, both Catholic and the ultimate rarity - retired RUC] that it certainly WILL happen, but only when the Titanic steams majestically into New York harbour.

    In fact, about as likely as the second scenario.

    Do you truly believe that a referendum will sort it out to everybody's satisfaction?

    tac


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 921 ✭✭✭Border-Rat


    marketty wrote: »
    Well there's no real way of knowing without a referendum but I think you might be surprised to learn a lot of people in the south couldn't care less about the north. It's sad but true. In fact a lot of them would be strongly against it, because if you take the ideology of a 'united Ireland' out of the equation and look at the hard figures the north is an economic black hole even worse than our own. And referendum or not there would be huge resistance from the loyalist paramilitaries, and with the current governments attitude to the defence forces we would have a very difficult time dealing with that with less than 10000 troops, not to mention the Garda overtime bill....

    Sinn Fein is the second most popular party in Ireland. This would suggest otherwise re: the 'Nobody wants a United Ireland' fantasy. Much like the Unionists who argue that the people who gave the SNP a mandate are, secretly, Unionists.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Border-Rat wrote: »
    Sinn Fein is the second most popular party in Ireland. This would suggest otherwise re: the 'Nobody wants a United Ireland' fantasy. Much like the Unionists who argue that the people who gave the SNP a mandate are, secretly, Unionists.

    I would certainly question that SF are the second most popular party in 'Ireland' - they may be in NI :

    Democratic Unionist Party: 36 seats
    Sinn Fein: 27
    Ulster Unionist Party: 18
    Social Democratic and Labour Party: 16
    Alliance Party: 7
    Green Party: 1
    Independents: 5

    http://stephenspillane.com/blog/index.php/2011/04/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2011/

    And that is with the Unionist vote split between the DUP and UUP - SF have no Nationalist opposition running on a united Ireland platform so no direct competitors yet the combined total of seats won by non- 'unionist' parties - even excluding Independents -add up to greater then SF's total.


    In the republic they came in 4th in the GE behind FG (76 seats), LP (37 seats), FF (20 seats), SF (14 seats).

    How can a party that won a grand total of 9.9% - not far off half the percentage of votes gained by the disgraced FF (17.4%) - be by any stretch of the imagination 'the second most popular party in Ireland'?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 921 ✭✭✭Border-Rat


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    I would certainly question that SF are the second most popular party in 'Ireland' - they may be in NI :

    Democratic Unionist Party: 36 seats
    Sinn Fein: 27
    Ulster Unionist Party: 18
    Social Democratic and Labour Party: 16
    Alliance Party: 7
    Green Party: 1
    Independents: 5

    http://stephenspillane.com/blog/index.php/2011/04/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2011/

    And that is with the Unionist vote split between the DUP and UUP - SF have no Nationalist opposition running on a united Ireland platform so no direct competitors yet the combined total of seats won by non- 'unionist' parties - even excluding Independents -add up to greater then SF's total.


    In the republic they came in 4th in the GE behind FG (76 seats), LP (37 seats), FF (20 seats), SF (14 seats).

    How can a party that won a grand total of 9.9% - not far off half the percentage of votes gained by the disgraced FF (17.4%) - be by any stretch of the imagination 'the second most popular party in Ireland'?

    Sorry to interrupt your Unionist fantasy, but according to RTE and others Sinn Fein is the second most popular party in Ireland;

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭Poccington


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    What exactly would we gain by joining NATO?

    Tanks, man.... TANKS!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Border-Rat wrote: »
    Sorry to interrupt your Unionist fantasy, but according to RTE and others Sinn Fein is the second most popular party in Ireland;

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html

    Get over yourself with that 'Unionist fantasy' crap - I don't give a flying who says SF are the second most popular party in Ireland - the fact that they got 9.9% of the vote in a general election - less then the party seen as responsible for the collapse of our economy and loss or our sovereignty - proves they are not the second most popular party in the 26 counties.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Poccington wrote: »
    Tanks, man.... TANKS!

    you're welcome ;) .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Border-Rat wrote: »
    Sinn Fein is the second most popular party in Ireland.

    Republic of Ireland

    Fine Gael = Currently the largest party in Ireland.
    Labour = 2nd largest political party in Ireland.
    Finna Fail = 3rd largest political party in Ireland.
    Sinn Fein = 4th largest political party in Ireland.

    Northern Ireland (UK).

    Democratic Unionist Party = Currently the largest political party in NI.
    Sinn Fein = The 2nd largest political party in Northern Ireland.
    Ulster Unionist Party = 3rd largest political party in NI.
    SDLP = 4th largest political party in Northern Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭tac foley


    LordSutch wrote: »
    Republic of Ireland

    Fine Gael = Currently the largest party in Ireland.
    Labour = 2nd largest political party in Ireland.
    Finna Fail = 3rd largest political party in Ireland.
    Sinn Fein = 4th largest political party in Republic of Ireland.

    Northern Ireland (UK).

    Democratic Unionist Party = Currently the largest political party in NI.
    Sinn Fein = The 2nd largest political party in Northern Ireland.
    Ulster Unionist Party = 3rd largest political party in NI.
    SDLP = 4th largest political party in Northern Ireland.

    I think that sorts it out quite satisfactorily.

    tac


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,662 ✭✭✭RMD


    Border-Rat wrote: »
    Sorry to interrupt your Unionist fantasy, but according to RTE and others Sinn Fein is the second most popular party in Ireland;

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html

    Since you seem to insist on posting a dated article here's a more recent outlook for you

    http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/news/fianna-fail-now-second-most-popular-party-in-the-country/

    According to this, FF are now even more popular than Labour. Who are more popular than SF, therefore SF = 4th in popularity. SF will never be a powerhouse in Irish politics even in a United Ireland, they appeal to Nationalists / Republicans due to their views on an UI. Once this is achieved they'll offer very little to Irish society and people will realize the majority of their other policies are idiotic and crowd pleasers.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    tac foley wrote: »
    I think that sorts it out quite satisfactorily.

    tac

    Not quite sure what your post means there in post#26? are you agreeing with Border-Rat when he says that Sinn Fein are the 2nd largest political party in Ireland? please clarify (No need for giant print) :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭xflyer


    Oh **** Border Rat joined in, there goes the rational debate.

    Turbine, I don't watch Frontline but am familiar with mob identity.
    Remember on both sides of the border it's a secret ballot. An Irish 'identity' is not the same as voting for a united Ireland. People know where their bread is buttered in the real world.

    I would like and vote for a united Ireland but I won't be given the option.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,562 ✭✭✭✭Sunnyisland


    I know there is a valid issue in asking if a United Ireland would be viable but if countries were just about economics then could england not seek a union with germany ?,There is a lot to more to having your country as an United Independent country than economics.Imo.
    __________________


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭tac foley


    LordSutch wrote: »
    Not quite sure what your post means there in post#26? are you agreeing with Border-Rat when he says that Sinn Fein are the 2nd largest political party in Ireland? please clarify (No need for giant print) :)

    No, I'm trying, with obvious lack of success, to convince Mr B-R that he is incorrect in his statement. Surely nobody on THIS forum needs to be reminded that Ireland and Northern Ireland are two distinctly different countries - at this time.

    Second place in Northern Ireland but fourth place in the Republic of Ireland - and on THIS forum when Ireland is discussed it usually refers to the Republic and not the North.

    I can see that Miss Bannasidhe seems to have had about as much success as I have, so I'll give up at this point and go feed the birdies.

    tac


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    tac foley wrote: »
    No, I'm trying, with obvious lack of success, to convince Mr B-R that he is incorrect in his statement. Surely nobody on THIS forum needs to be reminded that Ireland and Northern Ireland are two distinctly different countries - at this time.

    tac

    Tac - as the recent candidacy of Martin McGuinness for the Presidency demonstrated there are many posters on the site who do not accept partition and simply refuse to acknowledge it is political reality. To some of them anyone who attempts to point out this political reality is dismissed/abused as either a Unionist or a Partitionist - a small example of this type of thing was when Mr B-R declared my questioning of his statement that SF is the second most popular party in Ireland by producing sourced facts that show they are not as 'Unionist fantasy'. Sadly - these people can and do pop up on any forum at any time and a thread that contains the words 'United Ireland' in it's title will usually draw them in droves.
    TBH, I'm surprised there hasn't been more here - which must be down to the MODs careful monitoring and swift actions to deal with this kind of non-factual hyperbole.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭Poccington


    How popular or unpopular SF are has nothing to do with this topic.

    I'm getting sick of the nonsense being posted in this forum by certain posters. Get back on topic, now.


  • Site Banned Posts: 317 ✭✭Turbine


    This is the disadvantage of having the 'latest posts' in topics shown on the boards homepage, you get trolls like LordSutch hijacking a topic to repeat the same old tripe they've posted a million times over in other forums.


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