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The Great Aftertiming Footy thread!
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Well done. how did you get 11/2 on Harry Kane when he was already ahead by 2?manual_man wrote: »BOOM
Thank you Spurs0 -
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Season Long bet officially in today with Juve winning the league
Biggest sweats were definitely Hull being bottom on Christmas Day (only came in on goal difference) and Newcastle (89th minute Jack Grealish goal against Brighton brought this in on the final day).
Total Profit turned out to be around the 5,100 mark as I had hedged off the bet before the Brighton game.
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Yea, there was great thinking
behind this bet when i only needed 2 more goals, i took this
Dont hit those too often myself, usually void them so i thought, void this you little bastatrds
And it worked.....
Took the 11fold screenshot straight after the goal was scored. Seatlle the last one to come in. There was 4 minutes of injury time announcedNo better feeling than an extra time winner . Congrats0 -
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Can you explain what he was doing there please?
I don't use b365 / don't lay bets.
Yeah sure thing. This will be long, hope it helps.
The bet365 screen isn't too important, likely he just used that it as it's a good way of tracking a game in play, usually one of the fastest livescore boards out of all the bookmaker sites, and easy to read and follow stats too.
Main part is the screen to the right, the ladder. That's a piece of software that's connected to the betfair exchange. The exchange is where you can back or lay odds on different markets, and with odds movement, secure a profit regardless of what happens in the game.
The software allows you to place bets faster, see volumes of money easier and faster than the traditional site as well as other things.
The red column down the middle is the list of odds in decimal format, from 1.01 to 1000. In a bookies you can only take the price offered to you, on the Exchange you can offer prices, and as long as someone accepts the bet, the bet is on. In a bookies, the odds on Man City winning the league are like 1/50 or 1.02 in decimal odds. That's the odds you can back at on Paddy, 365, William Hill etc. On the exchange I see someone has by mistake offered to back at 1.10 or 1/10 (i.e he has layed it) so I decide to accept it and back it, and the bet is matched. At the same time, let's say Man City are actually 1.1 or 1/10 to win. Someone has offered 1.05, a far worse price. As long as someone is silly enough to back it, the bet is matched. As you can see if you have an idea where the odds should be, there is lots of potential for serious serious profit.
As you can see from the top of the far right screen he's trading the O/U 0.5 goals market. The odds for it to be over 0.5 goals pre game is usually ridiculously short, something between 1/20 and 1/40 depending on the teams. Considering Man City are prominent scorers, odds would be increasingly short.
Let's say over 0.5 is at odds of 1.04, under 0.5 will be something like 25.0. I'd imagine what he did was lay Over 0.5 lots of times as the odds move, and back at higher odds as the game develops securing profit. Obviously the longer the game goes with no goals the higher the odds go.
If you back at 1.04, you're risking a lot for little return, common sense...100 euro gets you only 4 euro profit. However laying at 1.04, you're risking only 4 euro to win 100, the opposite, basically playing the bookie...your payout is 4 if you lose, you win 100 from the 'punter' if he loses. It's much more attractive to lay at very short prices than back due to basic risk/reward.
Now back to the screenshot. Look at the green figures:
163,038.45
170,637.87
11,050.18
11,050.18 is what he wins if O 0.5 happens, i.e a goal is scored. So in effect he's guaranteed 11k simply because he was laying and backing (trading) at different prices, securing small profits along the way.
170,637.87 is what he wins is U 0.5 happens (which it did). The reason why it's so much higher is due to what was said above, far more risk than reward backing a short odd.
163,038.45 is the hedged figure available the cash out amount if you like. He could hedge for that, and even if a goal was scored or not he's guaranteed that hedged figure. That's the essence of trading, buying and selling bets based on odds movement, then hedging up and securing the same profit across all outcomes.
I have no idea why he didn't hedge/cash out earlier, as I'm sure everyone would cash out for 100k no matter what happens, rather than hoping to win 170k, or only 11k (I say only, but in this context, yeah only!). His name is Paulo Rebelo, a well known trader and bettor who's risked, won and lost more than we could imagine, but he's very analytical and obviously knows what he's doing and has his reasons for letting the bet run.
Apologies for rambling, hope it helps you understand a little more.0 -
Probably easier to show an example.
Take the game tonight, L'Pool vs Eveton.
You can back O 0.5 at 1.06, lay at 1.07
We decide to lay for 1000 euro. As we see we're risking only 70, standing to win 1000. If someone backed at 1.07 it'd be the opposite, risk 1000, stand to win 70.
The game starts and after ten/fifteen minutes (maybe more, maybe less, depends on the teams, the game and how lively it is), the odds will move. Above I've guessed that they'll be at 1.14. If we use the exact same stake, 1000 euro we can now back at that price, and now we lose nothing if a goal is not scored, win 70 if a goal is scored. We've a free bet on 70 euro in essence. However with trading we want to secure a smaller profit but across all outcomes so we can forget about the sweat of waiting to see what happens.
We lay a small bit more at that price (note 1065.42 in lay stake box, i.e we layed 1000, backed 1000, and now lay another 65 quid) thus securing 65.42 profit across all outcomes.
We could fiddle around with the figures and thus alter profit amounts if we so please, like what Paulo did above. See now we only back for 700 instead of 1000, winning 28 no matter what, and 300 if U 0.5 happens (0-0 at full time)0 -
Urindanger wrote: »Probably not in line with the rules of the thread, but needs to be shared.
Probably the sickest individual result I have ever seen:
Takes serious balls and a genius brain to not green up earlier. Granted he wins 11k regardless.
Must have had some serious money laid at the start to end up with that type of green on the unders.0 -
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