Arkle Chase 13-03-2012

UrbanSea

Menorah

HELLO SIMEY????

Colonel Sanders

Al Ferof

FWIW I think there may only be 6 or 7 runners in the Arkle. I'm thinking 8 max tbh if Foldubh & Lucky William go

Something to bear in mind if you fancy an each way play here, especially with the powers offer

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Thinking about Menorah, the horse clearly has a lot of class and jumped super first time up at Exeter before falling that day. What's to say he isn't a special chaser aswell with some confidence.

Menorah jumped really well that day alright at the last he really reached for it but got over and landed on four legs and Dickie bounced off him. What Hobbs did next was stupid, he threw him into a hurdle against Grandouet, Brampour and Overturn and cost him some confidence and then back over the bigger obstacles.

He is well worth backing, the way he runs around would suggest he needs the cover he will get in a bigger field. Hobbs yard is starting to fire and Yogi has been schooling Menorah and Captain Chris. I am expecting big runs from both.

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm using my phone. Is anyone on Betfair forum?

€221 at 2.2 now.

Lay at 2.22.

Huntley

Peddlers Cross

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Thinking about Menorah, the horse clearly has a lot of class and jumped super first time up at Exeter before falling that day. .

hucklebuck wrote: »

Menorah jumped really well that day alright

I have watched very little of Menorah this season so had a look at his runs and I'm not sure how you both came to this conclusion.

He skied the first and then jumped the next 4 or 5 with no fluency whatsoever, forgiveable considering it was his first outing as a novice. He put in three lovely jumps down the back, was hesitant at the two on the straight and dived at the one where he unseated.

Same story with his other races, capable of putting in the odd lovely jump but far too inconsistent and just isn't comfortable.

Unless going over showjumps has ignited a love for the birch I don't think he is capable of putting in a sound enough round in the Arkle.

UnitedIrishman

Hobbs is fairly optimistic anyways!

Paddy Power Racing
P Hobbs thinks menorah a cert in arkle.... Let's hope so![\quote]

mccarte2

hucklebuck wrote: »

Menorah jumped really well that day alright at the last he really reached for it but got over and landed on four legs and Dickie bounced off him. What Hobbs did next was stupid, he threw him into a hurdle against Grandouet, Brampour and Overturn and cost him some confidence and then back over the bigger obstacles.

He is well worth backing, the way he runs around would suggest he needs the cover he will get in a bigger field. Hobbs yard is starting to fire and Yogi has been schooling Menorah and Captain Chris. I am expecting big runs from both.

Where do you see the bigger field in the Arkle?

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

mccarte2 wrote: »

Where do you see the bigger field in the Arkle?

Dunno if this is a trick question

In his four chase starts he has had only 2 opponents in each, there will surely be at least 6/7 opposing in the Arkle so he can get a bit of cover.

mccarte2

hucklebuck wrote: »

Dunno if this is a trick question

In his four chase starts he has had only 2 opponents in each, there will surely be at least 6/7 opposing in the Arkle so he can get a bit of cover.

I would never have seen 6/7 as a big field that's all. Don't think he would get as much cover as you're making out.

hucklebuck

Al Ferof

mccarte2 wrote: »

I would never have seen 6/7 as a big field that's all. Don't think he would get as much cover as you're making out.

I said "at least" and "bigger".

You dont think Johnson being able to cover him up behind three or four counts as cover?

He seems to run around a bit on either side of fences and I am of the opinion that some horses in front of him running in twos/ threes would help.

ste2010

Peddlers Cross

hucklebuck wrote: »

mccarte2 wrote: »

I would never have seen 6/7 as a big field that's all. Don't think he would get as much cover as you're making out.

I said "at least" and "bigger".

You dont think Johnson being able to cover him up behind three or four counts as cover?

He seems to run around a bit on either side of fences and I am of the opinion that some horses in front of him running in twos/ threes would help.

Completely agree with huckle on this one. However its all speculation, based on his jumping in his chase runs I wouldn't consider backing him over alferof or cue card. Cue seemed to improve on his jumping in his last race..one bad mistake 2 out if I can recall but bet walkon and for nonstop readily. I would fancy cue card above menorah and from a value perspective I'd fancy him ahead of al ferof considering how he beat for non stop and walkon.

newuser89

Al Ferof

After watching last years supreme again I will have to back cue card over al ferof
Al ferof stayed on past the other horses
And they should be stronger for it.
If cue card is held onto long enough he should go very close

longshotvalue

Al Ferof

newuser89 wrote: »

After watching last years supreme again I will have to back cue card over al ferof
Al ferof stayed on past the other horses
And they should be stronger for it.
If cue card is held onto long enough he should go very close

They say he wont be held onto and he is likely to make the running. I think he has been impressive this year and looks a better chaser than hurdler, altough he would have to be..

mccarte2

hucklebuck wrote: »

I said "at least" and "bigger".

You dont think Johnson being able to cover him up behind three or four counts as cover?

He seems to run around a bit on either side of fences and I am of the opinion that some horses in front of him running in twos/ threes would help.

Honestly, no I don't. His jumping has been so poor in some races that I think he needs to be retaught how to jump. Most people give him a chance on what he achieved in the Supreme Novices / Greatwood. His run in the CH last year was poor and he's shown me nothing over fences so far in the runs I've seen.

I'd love to try and make a case for him but when a horse can't get the fundamentals right then they have to be avoided.

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

I thought For Non Stop was given a ridiculously poor ride against Que Card last time. If Fehily rode that race again he'd win, so I would take that race with a pinch of salt. At current odds I'd have QC over Al Ferof all day. Both should be 5/1 shots in my books.

Menorah can't jump and Hobbs doesn't know what to do with him. If he managed to jump better and put his best foot forward he would the biggest threat to SS on hurdle form alone. But as I said, he can't jump is probably odds on to fall.

newuser89

Al Ferof

Just looked at cue cards chase debut as well
Very impressive
Has speed and finds for pressure
Jumped the last couple well too

UrbanSea

Menorah

Ten left in it. Foildubh will hardly go, and Cristal Bonus is headed for the Jewson probably

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=59352

Colonel Sanders

Al Ferof

Nearest The Pin is surely bound for the novices handicap. Not sure about Kid Cassidy. Tizzard would need to be careful on Cue Card if KC does run

Not sure about Astracad. Could be a very small field.

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

I can 7 lining up.

Edit, 6.

jimjamcos

Peddlers Cross

Slattsy wrote: »

I can 7 lining up.

Edit, 6.

Which should suit SS down to the ground!! Small field should help Geraghty get him settled and dictate the pace.

I'm all over SS but if he doesn't win next Tuesday given how things are falling for him I'll be the first to admit he's a flat track bully!

daragh077

Peddlers Cross

Barry is adamant that Sprinter Sacre is the best horse he's sat on since Moscow Flyer - I think it will be very hard to beat - in saying that there are way too many short priced Favs at this years festival and some of them are bound to be turned over.

Colonel Sanders

Al Ferof

Betfair lay prices:

Sprinter Sacre 2.12
Hurricane Fly 1.98
Quevega 1.73
Sizing Europe 2.2
Big Bucks 1.73

Implies there is a 96.4% chance at least one gets beaten!

Colonel Sanders

Al Ferof

Number of the "good things" winning implied odds in decimal format:

0 - 39.38
Exactly 1 - 7.18
Exactly 2 - 3.31
Exactly 3 - 3.08
Exactly 4 - 5.28
All 5 - 27.64

Over 2.5 - 1.88
Under 2.5 2.14

newuser89

Al Ferof

Sprinter sacre cough

Nulty

daragh077 wrote: »

Barry is adamant that Sprinter Sacre is the best horse he's sat on since Moscow Flyer - I think it will be very hard to beat - in saying that there are way too many short priced Favs at this years festival and some of them are bound to be turned over.

Someone on this forum (maybe this thread) or another one has already stated MF record in chases. At his best, if he finished, he won. IF he finished.

1/F111F11/1U111/U111U1/111111

In MFs first 20 chases, he fell or unseated 20% of the time and won 80% of the time. Those stats are almost exactly incremental: i.e. 4 races 1 'fall', 8 races 2 'falls', 12 races 3 'falls' etc. Could be very much the same with SS.

Its the same difference for a horse that doesn't fall at all but loses 20% of the time of course.

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

newuser89 wrote: »

Sprinter sacre cough

Huh???

Nulty

Just watched Sprinter Sacres win at Doncaster again. his last fence was amazing. Not the way he jumped it, but the way Barry shoved him into it and he picked up immediately. He was jogging until Geraghty asked him to get ready for a big one. He holds his head out to the right (jockey perspective) and when Geraghty pushes the button he goes instantly into racehorse mode. Amazing to see it. Flick of a switch.

RichieLawlor

Looked at all of SS lifetime races last night and I made an observation.

The horse will find nothing off the bridle. The one time in his life he was asked to fight (Supreme 2011) he downed tools. Traveling by far the best and emptied.

Perhaps it wasn't the hill that beat him but rather a dodgy attitude.

But maybe there isnt anything quick enough in the Arkle to get him at it.

handsomecake

Menorah

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Looked at all of SS lifetime races last night and I made an observation.

The horse will find nothing off the bridle. The one time in his life he was asked to fight (Supreme 2011) he downed tools. Traveling by far the best and emptied.

Perhaps it wasn't the hill that beat him but rather a dodgy attitude.

But maybe there isnt anything quick enough in the Arkle to get him at it.

exactly my thoughts.he could be a bottler

mdwexford

He hit the front way too early. He's had a wind op and strengthened up. Clutching at straws

longshotvalue

Al Ferof

There is a small possibility that Cue Card will frustrate SS and play into the hands of Al Ferof, but Al Ferof is way too short at his current price

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

He hit the front way too early. He's had a wind op and strengthened up. Clutching at straws

Hitting the front early didn't hamper him before or since.

mdwexford

Was younger and had breathing issues as I said.

It wont be an issue on Tuesday, he will jump them into the ground by about four out.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

Was younger and had breathing issues as I said.

It wont be an issue on Tuesday, he will jump them into the ground by about four out.

These 'issues' didn't stop him running away with two novice hurdles. Your normally sane head when it comes to the festival has been left behind with this hype machine.

It's easy to say when a horse falls in a hole that he was weak or had breathing issues.

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Looked at all of SS lifetime races last night and I made an observation.

The horse will find nothing off the bridle. The one time in his life he was asked to fight (Supreme 2011) he downed tools. Traveling by far the best and emptied.

Perhaps it wasn't the hill that beat him but rather a dodgy attitude.

But maybe there isnt anything quick enough in the Arkle to get him at it.

But he hasn't been off the bridle in a year. Anyone that knows anything about racing knows that a lot can happen to a horse over the course of a summer off. Throw in the breathing op. This horse has improved 2 stone since the festival last year.

RichieLawlor

Slattsy wrote: »

But he hasn't been off the bridle in a year. Anyone that knows anything about racing knows that a lot can happen to a horse over the course of a summer off. Throw in the breathing op. This horse has improved 2 stone since the festival last year.

Maybe. But he still hasn't had to fight. The one time in his career he did, the horse downed tools.

Ruby keeps saying they want to get SS into a battle, maybe they think the same

RichieLawlor

Slattsy wrote: »

But he hasn't been off the bridle in a year. Anyone that knows anything about racing knows that a lot can happen to a horse over the course of a summer off. Throw in the breathing op. This horse has improved 2 stone since the festival last year.

And a summer off won't change a horses attitude much. A few summers off didn't change Harchibalds attitude towards a battle.

He has been off the bridle one time in his life, and didn't like it. Just saying

ipitydafool

Peddlers Cross

Nulty wrote: »

Just watched Sprinter Sacres win at Doncaster again. his last fence was amazing. Not the way he jumped it, but the way Barry shoved him into it and he picked up immediately. He was jogging until Geraghty asked him to get ready for a big one. He holds his head out to the right (jockey perspective) and when Geraghty pushes the button he goes instantly into racehorse mode. Amazing to see it. Flick of a switch.

Barry Geraghty didn't ride Sprinter Sacre on his chase debut at Doncaster, David Bass did.

Im very much a SS fan and I dont believe the hill will make much difference on Tuesday, he will be so far clear of the rest going over the last, it will not matter a bit whether that hill is there or not:) It is not the same race as the Supreme- it is over a shorter trip and there is 5 more obstacles to jump both which play to SS strengths.

Slattsy

Peddlers Cross

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

But he hasn't been off the bridle in a year. Anyone that knows anything about racing knows that a lot can happen to a horse over the course of a summer off. Throw in the breathing op. This horse has improved 2 stone since the festival last year.

Maybe. But he still hasn't had to fight. The one time in his career he did, the horse downed tools.

Ruby keeps saying they want to get SS into a battle, maybe they think the same

I wouldn't say he downed tools. He got outstayed. He was only 4 and weak and had a breathing problem. But who am I to say how good the horse is. Geraghty knows best

Nulty

ipitydafool wrote: »

Barry Geraghty didn't ride Sprinter Sacre on his chase debut at Doncaster, David Bass did.

Im very much a SS fan and I dont believe the hill will make much difference on Tuesday, he will be so far clear of the rest going over the last, it will not matter a bit whether that hill is there or not:) It is not the same race as the Supreme- it is over a shorter trip and there is 5 more obstacles to jump both which play to SS strengths.

Woteva

:pac:

AngryBollix

Menorah

I've backed Al Ferof at 5\1

ft9

Peddlers Cross

AngryBollix wrote: »

I've backed Al Ferof at 5\1

With PaddyPower I hope?

AngryBollix

Menorah

ft9 wrote: »

With PaddyPower I hope?

Of Course.

newuser89

Al Ferof

I've changed my mind on the arkle
I think menorah is the only one who could potentially mix it with SS
Cue card is there to be shot at
And menorah is a better horse than alferof in my opinion
So just hope menorah can put in a gd round
And give it a gd go

AngryBollix

Menorah

ft9 wrote: »

With PaddyPower I hope?

I think Bet 365 are running a similar offer

newuser89

Al Ferof

Just saw this in one of the betfair columns
I taught alferof had the worst speed figures

Al Ferof has posted the best speed rating of the field, and only Blackstairmountain, Cue Card, Menorah and Sprinter Sacre get within 90 per cent of it.
Neither Blackstairmountain nor Sprinter Sacre have run within 10lbs of their best, leaving us with Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah as the most likely winners.

Huntley

Peddlers Cross

newuser89 wrote: »

Al Ferof has posted the best speed rating of the field

Not officially he hasn't.

Only Menorah has a worse top speed than Al Ferof but he hasn't run against top class opposition yet so there is potential to improve it by some way.

mdwexford

newuser89 wrote: »

Just saw this in one of the betfair columns
I taught alferof had the worst speed figures

Al Ferof has posted the best speed rating of the field, and only Blackstairmountain, Cue Card, Menorah and Sprinter Sacre get within 90 per cent of it.
Neither Blackstairmountain nor Sprinter Sacre have run within 10lbs of their best, leaving us with Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah as the most likely winners.

Any links to any of this because it sounds a load of tosh to me.

newuser89

Al Ferof

It's at the bottom of the column

http://betting.betfair.ie/irish-racing/cheltenham-festival-2012-a-working-persons-guide-1-100312.html

the groutch

for those who backed antepost e/w, you are entitled to get paid 3 places even with only 6 runners, as those would have been the e/w terms when you placed the bet. don't let the bookies screw you out of your 3rd place payouts.