Could this spell the start of the end for FF

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

RedC/Paddy Power compared with RedC/BizPost March 3rd

FG 35 +5, Lab 16 nc, FF 15 -2, SF 14 -4, Ind 20 +1.

Great to see the slide of FF continue. I am amazed that that are still in double figures. Not for long hopefully

Thanks for posting, I hadn't seen this poll . .

Personally I am very pleased with this result. . . Many had predicted that post-Mahon Fianna Fail would be in the single digits and on the way out. . . I had argued that there was nothing fundamentally new in Mahon and that essentially Fianna Fail had taken its drubbing in the past year. . . It seems I was right

With Mahon behind us Fianna Fail can now focus on our reform and renewal agenda and I expect growth in the polls before the end of the year. .

I am also pleased to see that the Fianna Fail vote is going to Fine Gael and not to Labour or Sinn Fein . . I see the votes that have moved to FG as being far more recoverable than a swing to either Labour or Sinn Fein.

later12

Same as the above. The news coverage leading up to this poll has been wall to wall Fianna Fail and corruption. While I welcome the support for Fianna Fail, I'm a little shocked by it. One would wonder what Fianna Fail has to do to shrink to below 15%? The party is on similar levels of support to Fine Gael in 2003, when Fine Gael was a well behaved schoolchild.

In the absence of the emergence of a major new political support, it's difficult to imagine a political scene without Fianna Fail as the major opposition party, looking at these figures. That's bad news for people who wish the thread title to be realized, but it's good for Fianna Fail.

And it might be good for the country too. Here's what Olivia O'Leary had to say about the matter:

[link downloads podcast]
http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2012/pc/pod-v-0603124m41sdrivetimeolivia-pid0-281088.mp3

raymon

I don't see anything positive for FF in this .

It is appropriate that FF support continues to slide down the drain.

john reilly

raymon wrote: »

I don't see anything positive for FF in this .

It is appropriate that FF support continues to slide down the drain.

f.f future is in the hands of f.g and labour. luckily for f.f I cant see them letting them down. couldnt rule a s.f and f.f goverment out soon.

Foghladh

That was a poll on the household charge wasn't it?

How did you determine the party support? From the base sizes?

Stroke Politics

FF is a bit like polio, it will never go away. In times past, it was a huge menace, and ruined the lives of many, but if the conditions are right it will threaten to destroy a whole society again....

nuac

Anybody know if this was the usual RedC poll of a sample of `1000 voters?

raymon

Foghladh wrote: »

That was a poll on the household charge wasn't it?

How did you determine the party support? From the base sizes?

Hi Fogladh

There was a poll , the questions were standard RedC , unrelated to household charge

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/News/Poll%3A+Fine+Gael+on+35%25+ahead+of+Ard+Fheis/id/19410615-5218-4f75-ce22-5fd7e6164365

Foghladh

OK. The only poll I'd seen was the RedC Household charge and EU referendum survey for Paddy Power yesterday

http://www.scribd.com/doc/87212706/pr29670-1-PP-RedC

Going off the base sizes on that survey it works out at FG on 43, Lab on 20, FF on 17 Ind on 11 and SF on 9.

It didn't specifically ask party support questions but did include the data as part of the Referendum poll. It does seem slightly skewed compared to the Business Post survey.

raymon

later12 wrote: »

Here's what Olivia O'Leary had to say about the matter:

[link downloads podcast]
http://www.rte.ie/podcasts/2012/pc/pod-v-0603124m41sdrivetimeolivia-pid0-281088.mp3

Later12 I listened to this clip and it reminds me of the whinge politics that FF have adopted recently.( Enda Kenny doesn't give Michael Martin the respect he deserves , etc,etc)

FF will do themselves no favours by playing the victim

later12

raymon the point Olivia O'Leary was making was that there are currently a dichotomy of choices for the Government: put SF on the opposition platform, or put FF on the opposition platform.

As OL says, the choice is between those who have effectively given away the state's economic sovereignty, or the party that has justified those with Irish blood on their hands.

raymon

later12 wrote: »

raymon the point Olivia O'Leary was making was that there are currently a dichotomy of choices for the Government: put SF on the opposition platform, or put FF on the opposition platform.

As OL says, the choice is between those who have effectively given away the state's economic sovereignty, or the party that has justified those with Irish blood on their hands.

That is true , what a pity there is not a third option.

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

RedC/Paddy Power compared with RedC/BizPost March 3rd

FG 35 +5, Lab 16 nc, FF 15 -2, SF 14 -4, Ind 20 +1.

Great to see the slide of FF continue. I am amazed that that are still in double figures. Not for long hopefully

Fantastic poll result for FF to be honest - I was expecting the party to fall to 10 - 12% post Mahon. Clearly evident that 15 - 16% is a real core support base at the moment that is not likely to evaporate. Very strong base for the party to build on, it will take a long time before the party starts heading north of 20% though.

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

I don't see anything positive for FF in this .

It is appropriate that FF support continues to slide down the drain.

As Sierra Oscar points out, this demonstrates that FF have a core support base of 15-16%. Pretty much at the same level as both SF and LAB and a strong platform on which to build. The publication of the Mahon tribunal is no doubt the party's lowest ebb. The impact was about what I expected (i.e. negligible) and much less than many had predicted . .

This is a very positive poll result for Fianna Fail.

raymon

hallelujajordan wrote: »

As Sierra Oscar points out, this demonstrates that FF have a core support base of 15-16%. Pretty much at the same level as both SF and LAB and a strong platform on which to build. The publication of the Mahon tribunal is no doubt the party's lowest ebb. The impact was about what I expected (i.e. negligible) and much less than many had predicted . .

This is a very positive poll result for Fianna Fail.

I feel that FFs lowest ebb is yet to come.

Look who is leading the party, Michael Martin . One of Berties right hand men.

Same old codgers o dea ( liar under oath) and Fleming ( adversely named in the tribunal)

I note that you are no longer using the "margin of error " excuse for low ratings

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

I feel that FFs lowest ebb is yet to come.

Look who is leading the party, Michael Martin . One of Berties right hand men.

Same old codgers o dea ( liar under oath) and Fleming ( adversely named in the tribunal)

I note that you are no longer using the "margin of error " excuse for low ratings

Clearly, as the RedC report actually explicitly highlights, people have already built the results of the Mahon Tribunal into their voting intentions. The Mahon Tribunal has been a weight on the shoulder of FF for the last year, now that it has reported the party can move forward with the renewal.

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

I feel that FFs lowest ebb is yet to come.

Look who is leading the party, Michael Martin . One of Berties right hand men.

Same old codgers o dea ( liar under oath) and Fleming ( adversely named in the tribunal)

I note that you are no longer using the "margin of error " excuse for low ratings

True . . . I have learned how futile it is to debate opinion poll margin of error with you.

Regardless . . Error margin or not, I am pleased with a poll result of 15%.

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Clearly, as the RedC report actually explicitly highlights, people have already built the results of the Mahon Tribunal into their voting intentions. The Mahon Tribunal has been a weight on the shoulder of FF for the last year, now that it has reported the party can move forward with the renewal.

For some people I feel it could take months before the extent of the rot and corruption if FF sinks in.

Remember Bertie had a renewal too .

There is a core FF vote out there ( who will vote FF no matter what) but I believe it is in single figures.

Foghladh

raymon wrote: »

For some people I feel it could take months before the extent of the rot and corruption if FF sinks in.

Remember Bertie had a renewal too .

There is a core FF vote out there ( who will vote FF no matter what) but I believe it is in single figures.

Given that the Mahon report is out, Martin has been leader for a year and the support level seems stable at about 15-16%, what makes you believe that the core vote is in single figures?

And hoping it isn't an answer!

raymon

Foghladh wrote: »

Given that the Mahon report is out, Martin has been leader for a year and the support level seems stable at about 15-16%, what makes you believe that the core vote is in single figures?

And hoping it isn't an answer!

18 % to 15 % drop in RedC polls is a slide in my book .

My point is that FF don't really have anything positive to offer to change this downward trajectory.

It might be time for FF to stop the whinge politics

Mr.Micro

raymon wrote: »

18 % to 15 % drop in RedC polls is a slide in my book .

My point is that FF don't really have anything positive to offer to change this downward trajectory.

It might be time for FF to stop the whinge politics

Tbh raymon, I do not think in its present form and the current type of FF TD, there is little chance of that changing. Add then the current leadership, and its as you were and tread water for a few years.

raymon

The Fianna Fail drop continues in latest poll

Well done FF

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0419/breaking47.html

Again the bad news here is the rise of SF

john reilly

raymon wrote: »

The Fianna Fail drop continues in latest poll

Well done FF

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0419/breaking47.html

Again the bad news here is the rise of SF

hoe is this bad news, you either want f.g, f.f, lab style politics or something different. people have tried politicans who are only interested in the short term and linning their pockets and feel the time is right for politicans who will put their life on the line for their country. it seems their day has arrived

raymon

john reilly wrote: »

hoe is this bad news, you either want f.g, f.f, lab style politics or something different. people have tried politicans who are only interested in the short term and linning their pockets and feel the time is right for politicans who will put their life on the line for their country. it seems their day has arrived

Sinn Fein have shown their true colours lately.

Pearse Doherty nearly has the highest expenses in the dail.

o Snodaigh stuffing his pockets with printer cartridges

Disgraceful

gerryo777

raymon wrote: »

Sinn Fein have shown their true colours lately.

Pearse Doherty nearly has the highest expenses in the dail.

o Snodaigh stuffing his pockets with printer cartridges

Disgraceful

I wouldn't be a sinn fein supporter but is that the best you can do?

Now, I know about their history and having blood on their hands and all that, as do all the main parties here, but come on, large expenses and a few printer cartridges?

After what bertie and his cronies did to the country and with what enda & co are currently doing to it, you could hardly call it disgraceful!

Brussels Sprout

john reilly wrote: »

hoe is this bad news, you either want f.g, f.f, lab style politics or something different. people have tried politicans who are only interested in the short term and linning their pockets and feel the time is right for politicans who will put their life on the line for their country. it seems their day has arrived

Yes, because Sinn Fein's signature brand of lowest common denominator economic policies is a real long term winning strategy: "Hand-outs for all, charges for none!"

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

The Fianna Fail drop continues in latest poll

Well done FF

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0419/breaking47.html

Again the bad news here is the rise of SF

LOL . .

• Government satisfaction down 14 points to 23% (i.e. less than 1 in 4 people are satisfied with the government)
• Labour are down 6 points to 13 (which incidentally puts them one point behind FF when they were 4 points ahead)
• Taoiseach satisfaction down 10%
• Tanaiste satisfaction down 14%

Yet Raymon believes the newsworthy piece of this report is that FF are down 1 point. .

Tragedy

gerryo777 wrote: »

I wouldn't be a sinn fein supporter but is that the best you can do?

Now, I know about their history and having blood on their hands and all that, as do all the main parties here, but come on, large expenses and a few printer cartridges?

After what bertie and his cronies did to the country and with what enda & co are currently doing to it, you could hardly call it disgraceful!

Sinn Fein Deputies have a history of having among the highest Expenses claims of all TDs.

You think milking expenses for all their worth while telling people "We only take home the average industrial wage (plus 60k in expenses!)" makes them any better than the rest? Naive is being kind.

Wider Road

raymon wrote: »

john reilly wrote: »

hoe is this bad news, you either want f.g, f.f, lab style politics or something different. people have tried politicans who are only interested in the short term and linning their pockets and feel the time is right for politicans who will put their life on the line for their country. it seems their day has arrived

Sinn Fein have shown their true colours lately.

Pearse Doherty nearly has the highest expenses in the dail.

o Snodaigh stuffing his pockets with printer cartridges

Disgraceful

If you raymon were asked the question the people in the opinion poll were asked, what would your answer be?
Question was, if there was an election, who would you vote for?

raymon

Wider Road wrote: »

If you raymon were asked the question the people in the opinion poll were asked, what would your answer be?
Question was, if there was an election, who would you vote for?

Undecided.

I could never vote for a party associated with bank robbers and paramilitarists, or a party rotten to the core with corruption .

So apart from FF and SF , I am pretty open minded.

I have voted for FG , lab and independents in the past.

Wider Road

raymon wrote: »

Wider Road wrote: »

If you raymon were asked the question the people in the opinion poll were asked, what would your answer be?
Question was, if there was an election, who would you vote for?

Undecided.

I could never vote for a party associated with bank robbers and paramilitarists, or a party rotten to the core with corruption .

So apart from FF and SF , I am pretty open minded.

I have voted for FG , lab and independents in the past.

So your answer is that you would not vote judging on the latest opinion poll.
The question was if there was an election who would you vote for?
So you at this time you would not vote!
Have you any opinions?

K-9

raymon wrote: »

Undecided.

I could never vote for a party associated with bank robbers and paramilitarists, or a party rotten to the core with corruption .

So apart from FF and SF , I am pretty open minded.

I have voted for FG , lab and independents in the past.

FG didn't come out too well in the tribunals, I assume they are of the list?

Chucky the tree

gerryo777 wrote: »

I wouldn't be a sinn fein supporter but is that the best you can do?

Now, I know about their history and having blood on their hands and all that, as do all the main parties here, but come on, large expenses and a few printer cartridges?

After what bertie and his cronies did to the country and with what enda & co are currently doing to it, you could hardly call it disgraceful!

It shows that they are no better then anyone else in the Dail despite claims to the contrary. The only reason they aren't as bad as Enda and Co is because they haven't(and hopefully wont ever) be given the chance. They've shown there true greedy colours/nature numerous times, they won't suddenly change in power.

Wider Road

raymon wrote: »

Wider Road wrote: »

If you raymon were asked the question the people in the opinion poll were asked, what would your answer be?
Question was, if there was an election, who would you vote for?

Undecided.

I could never vote for a party associated with bank robbers and paramilitarists, or a party rotten to the core with corruption .

So apart from FF and SF , I am pretty open minded.

I have voted for FG , lab and independents in the past.

What election did you vote FG?
What election did you vote Labour?
What election did you vote independent, what's your constituency?

Brussels Sprout

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Yet Raymon believes the newsworthy piece of this report is that FF are down 1 point. .

In fairness though the way things are going with FF it's bad news that they're still rooted to roughly what they polled in the election. I dare say that the news from earlier about the O' Reilly's relinquishing control of INM is also more bad news for FF.

guitarzero

FF will never die. They are paper and have lost to scissor and rock (new rules!:mad:) after a lot of tries. But watch when scissor and rock lose a few rounds, paper will be back. You cant have scissors and rock without paper, it just wouldnt be interesting.

raymon

hallelujajordan wrote: »

LOL . .

• Government satisfaction down 14 points to 23% (i.e. less than 1 in 4 people are satisfied with the government)
• Labour are down 6 points to 13 (which incidentally puts them one point behind FF when they were 4 points ahead)
• Taoiseach satisfaction down 10%
• Tanaiste satisfaction down 14%

Yet Raymon believes the newsworthy piece of this report is that FF are down 1 point. .

That is precisely my point ..... with the likes of Phil Hogan running around and FF can't even gain one percent .

This is a shocking failure for FF.

Long may their slide continue

raymon

K-9 wrote: »

FG didn't come out too well in the tribunals, I assume they are of the list?

Yes - this is true that there were some bad eggs in FG .
Anyone who accepts dodgy money should be expelled from any party.
Absolutely shocking that a serving FG TD was named in a tribunal for accepting money.

However as an organisation I don't believe FG to be corrupt.
FG will not automatically get my vote next election unless their performance improves
I would like them to expel anyone adversely named in a tribunal for starters . Even for 500 pounds .

raymon

Wider Road wrote: »

So your answer is that you would not vote judging on the latest opinion poll.
The question was if there was an election who would you vote for?
So you at this time you would not vote!
Have you any opinions?

I always vote . As I said I am undecided . I dont know . All I know is that it won't be FF or SF .

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

That is precisely my point ..... with the likes of Phil Hogan running around and FF can't even gain one percent .

This is a shocking failure for FF.

Long may their slide continue

It's gas how you can describe a statistically insignificant movement as a 'slide' when most of the rest of us pretty much accept that FF are where they were this time last year. .

What is your commentary on the Labour slide (which could more accurately be described a a slide) ?

raymon wrote: »

Yes - this is true that there were some bad eggs in FG .
Anyone who accepts dodgy money should be expelled from any party.
Absolutely shocking that a serving FG TD was named in a tribunal for accepting money.

However as an organisation I don't believe FG to be corrupt.
FG will not automatically get my vote next election unless their performance improves
I would like them to expel anyone adversely named in a tribunal for starters . Even for 500 pounds .

What about the party leader who has never openly accepted the findings of the tribunal and who thinks it's OK to stand on a podium at the NYSE with Denis O'Brien ? You OK with that ??

raymon wrote: »

I always vote . As I said I am undecided . I dont know . All I know is that it won't be FF or SF .

You choose the most comfortable spot . . sit on the fence and throw mud in all directions. Never commit to anything and heaven forbid you should actually get involved and try to change anything.

Sierra Oscar

Forget about FF - what the hell is going to happen Labour? :eek:

Where will they be a year from now if that downward trend continues?

EDIT: Although I guess an election is four years away at the end of the day - but still . . .

raymon

Before I answer , this thread is not about me , labour , FG , Denis O Brien, but I will answer anyway

hallelujajordan wrote: »

It's gas how you can describe a statistically insignificant movement as a 'slide' when most of the rest of us pretty much accept that FF are where they were this time last year. .

What is your commentary on the Labour slide (which could more accurately be described a a slide) ?

Ah yes margin of error again. Lol.

Labour are falling like a rock , that is beside the point . My point is FF are failing to even make 1% gain in an environment of savage cuts.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

What about the party leader who has never openly accepted the findings of the tribunal and who thinks it's OK to stand on a podium at the NYSE with Denis O'Brien ? You OK with that ??

I won't defend Enda Kenny . Denis o Brien is like a bad penny that always turns up.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

You choose the most comfortable spot . . sit on the fence and throw mud in all directions. Never commit to anything and heaven forbid you should actually get involved and try to change anything.

You mean I don't blindly follow a party despite their failings like a football team ? Damn right.

You have asked me this before , and I have repeatedly asked you back " what have you done yourself to change FF ?"

Did you stand up and applaud at the ard fheis to Cowen?

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Forget about FF - what the hell is going to happen Labour? :eek:

Where will they be a year from now if that downward trend continues?

EDIT: Although I guess an election is four years away at the end of the day - but still . . .

True , labour are looking bad.

Funny listening to Timmy Dooley FF TD on the radio this morning asked why FF is doing so badly . His defense was that labour are doing worse. Nothing like a bit of comedy on the radio in the morning.

Probably time for FF to disband and let a new party form that can tackle SF FG and lab head on without the corruption baggage

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

Ah yes margin of error again. Lol.

damn statistics, eh ? ?

raymon wrote:

Labour are falling like a rock , that is beside the point . My point is FF are failing to even make 1% gain in an environment of savage cuts.

I'm not displeased that FF are not making forward progress yet. . Rebuilding FF is a long-term project that really just started in earnest this year. . I don't want to see FF bouncing around from one opinion poll to another. . Do you think the jump for SF is something real and sustainable ? I don't. . When people come back to FF I want them to come back because they trust FF, because they believe that change has occurred and because they accept that FF can be good for Ireland .. not because they don't like Phil Hogan.

You mean I don't blindly follow a party despite their failings like a football team ? Damn right.

It's not about blind support . . its about committing to something, getting involved and trying to make a difference ..

Dannyboy83

It seems Ruairi Quinn and Joan Burton have delivered, as much as the situation permits.
On the whole, the rest of Labour have been fairly useless, with Gilmore himself being hugely detrimental.
We always knew he was smug, but the man has been outright arrogant, with no attempts to hide it in recent months. He is doing huge damage to Labour.

There have been no notable performers in Fine Gael apart from Kenny himself (and that mainly being because Cowen was such a screw up), and several have been detrimental - Hogan standing out obviously.
Nobody within Fine Gael has delivered thusfar and several have been an embarrassment, with Brian Hayes being the most notable, and Reilly while not being an embarrassment, simply being a major let down.

A politician must see it a situation as it really is - and respond to that -, not how they would like it to be.
Fine Gael and Labour seem to have no concept of realpolitik.

No matter how arrogant you become in your insulated Dail Eireann bubble, you have to at least pretend to sympathise with people who's lives are in turmoil.
On an emotional level, Ireland is going through the equivalent of a world war with total contrast between present day and life 4 years ago.

Could you imagine Winston Churchill coming out during the Blitz and tell the ordinary English man and woman to 'put up/shut up'? :rolleyes:

Brussels Sprout

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

On the whole, the rest of Labour have been fairly useless, with Gilmore himself being hugely detrimental.
We always knew he was smug, but the man has been outright arrogant, with no attempts to hide it in recent months. He is doing huge damage to Labour.

You could go back a few years and substitute Gormley/Greens in the above or go back even further and substitute in McDowell/PDs.

What is it about the minor coalition party leaders that turns them into these overbearing patronising individuals? Is it that they are so emasculated at the cabinet table by the larger party's members, that they feel the need to come out and talk down to the electorate as some some form of self aggrandisation?

raymon

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Do you think the jump for SF is something real and sustainable ? I don't. .

I hope not, we can agree there

hallelujajordan wrote: »

When people come back to FF

People won't come back to FF , they are gone

hallelujajordan wrote: »

It's not about blind support . . its about committing to something, getting involved and trying to make a difference ..

What are you committing to ? What core values do FF have ?

nuac

FF need to hold on, and gain some seats and new blood in the LE 2014. If they don't, at best they will be minor rural party for a few elections like Clann na Talun and Clann na Poblachta

In fact this poll also is bad news for FG and Labour.

SF ? (1) worried about their association with criminality e.g. Ferris meeting the murderer of Gda McCabe

(2) la la land economics - e.g Adams telling either IMF or ECB to go home and take their money with them

(3) nonesense of the "average industrial wage" while scamming the taxpayer e.g. O'Sn odaigh and the printer cartridges

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

.

Probably time for FF to disband and let a new party form that can tackle SF FG and lab head on without the corruption baggage

What is stopping a new party from emerging as it is?

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

What is stopping a new party from emerging as it is?

There is nothing stopping a new party from forming . I hope more emerge

My point is that there may be a few FFers that were not corrupt , or perjurers, or named adversely in a tribunal or accepted money from Owen o Callaghan that might want to form a party that isn't linked to the old corrupt FF organisation.
I think that would be a breath of fresh air